Hazard index maps for woody material recruitment and transport in alpine catchments

A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical crosssections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This study addresses several objectives of Healthy People 2010 including reducing deaths from motor vehicle accidents (Objective 15-15), reducing nonfatal motor vehicle injuries (Objective 15-17), and reducing drownings (Objective 15-29). The study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1959 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and type of flood. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (77%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers – some of the Flash Flood Alley counties (Bexar, Dallas, Travis, and Tarrant), Harris County (Houston), and Val Verde County (Del Rio). An intervention strategy targeting the behavior of driving into flood water is proposed. The intervention is based on the Health Belief model. The main recommendation of the study is that flood fatalities in Texas can be reduced through a combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing the public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities.^

Documentation, profile descriptions and analytical results of loes profiles from Bavaria, southern Germany

This study investigates the landscape evolution and soil development in the loess area near Regensburg between approximately 6000-2000 yr BP (radiocarbon years), Eastern Bavaria. The focus is on the question how man and climate influenced landscape evolution and what their relative significance was. The theoretical background concerning the factors that controlled prehistoric soil erosion in Middle Europe is summarized with respect to rainfall intensity and distribution, pedogenesis, Pleistocene relief, and prehistoric farming. Colluvial deposits , flood loams, and soils were studied at ten different and representative sites that served as archives of their respective palaeoenvironments. Geomorphological, sedimentological, and pedological methods were applied. According to the findings presented here, there was a high asynchronity of landscape evolution in the investigation area, which was due to prehistoric land-use patterns. Prehistoric land use and settlement caused highly difIerenciated phases of morphodynamic activity and stability in time and space. These are documented at the single catenas ofeach site. In general, Pleistocene relief was substantially lowered. At the same time smaller landforms such as dells and minor asymmetric valleys filled up and strongly transformed. However, there were short phases at many sites, forming short lived linear erosion features ('Runsen'), resulting from exceptional rainfalls. These forms are results of single events without showing regional trends. Generally, the onset of the sedimentation of colluvial deposits took place much earlier (usually 3500 yr BP (radiocarbon) and younger) than the formation of flood loams. Thus, the deposition of flood loams in the Kleine Laaber river valley started mainly as a consequence of iron age farming only at around 2500 yr BP (radiocarbon). A cascade system explains the different ages of colluvial deposits and flood loams: as a result of prehistoric land use, dells and other minor Pleistocene landforms were filled with colluvial sediments. After the filling of these primary sediment traps , eroded material was transported into flood plains, thus forming flood loams. But at the moment we cannot quantify the extent ofprehistoric soil erosion in the investigation area. The three factors that controlled the prehistoric Iandscapc evolution in the Ioess area near Regensburg are as follows: 1. The transformation from a natural to a prehistoric cultural landscape was the most important factor: A landscape with stable relief was changed into a highly morphodynamic one with soil erosion as the dominant process of this change. 2. The sediment traps of the pre-anthropogenic relief determined where the material originated from soil erosion was deposited: either sedimentation took place on the slopes or the filled sediment traps of the slopes rendered flood loam formation possible. Climatic influence of any importance can only be documented as the result of land use in connection with singular and/or statistic events of heavy rainfalls. Without human impact, no significant change in the Holocene landscape would have been possible.

Mineral and organic geochemistry from Lake Anterne sediments (North French Alps)

A high-resolution sedimentological and geochemical study was performed on a 20 m long core from the alpine Lake Anterne (2063 m a.s.l., NW French Alps) spanning the last 10 ka. Sedimentation is mainly of minerogenic origin. The organic matter quantity (TOC%) as well as its quality (hydrogen (HI) and oxygen (OI) indices) both indicate the progressive onset and subsequent stabilization of vegetation cover in the catchment from 9950 to 5550 cal. BP. During this phase, the pedogenic process of carbonate dissolution is marked by a decrease in the calcium content in the sediment record. Between 7850 and 5550 cal. BP, very low manganese concentrations suggest anoxic conditions in the bottom-water of Lake Anterne. These are caused by a relatively high organic matter (terrestrial and lacustrine) content, a low flood frequency and longer summer stratification triggered by warmer conditions. From 5550 cal. BP, a decrease in TOC, stabilization of HI and higher sedimentation rates together reflect increased erosion rates of leptosols and developed soils, probably due to a colder and wetter climate. Then, three periods of important soil destabilization are marked by an increased frequency and thickness of flood deposits during the Bronze Age and by increases in topsoil erosion relative to leptosols (HI increases) during the late Iron Age/Roman period and the Medieval periods. These periods are also characterized by higher sedimentation rates. According to palynological data, human impact (deforestation and/or pasturing activity) probably triggered these periods of increased soil erosion.

Extractable hydrocarbon and carbon isotope geochemistry of Lower Cretaceous sediments of the Exmouth Plateau

The organic geochemical character of rocks selected from Aptian, Valanginian, and Berriasian clay stone and siltstone sequences encountered in Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Holes 762C and 763C on the Exmouth Plateau was determined by means of a variety of analytical procedures. These sequences represent distal portions of the Mesozoic Barrow delta, in which petroleum source rocks and reservoirs exist on the Australian continent. The organic matter at the ODP sites is thermally immature type III material. Biomarker hydrocarbon compositions are dominated by long-chain, waxy n-alkanes and by C29 steranes, which reflect the land-plant origin of organic matter. Organic carbon d13C values ranged from -26 per mil to -28 per mil, consistent with a C3 land-plant source. Kerogen pyrolysate compositions and hopane isomerization ratios revealed progressively larger contributions of recycled organic matter as the depth of the deltaic sedimentary layers became greater.

Coastal Urban Flood Resislience versus Climate Change

Processes of founding and expanding cities in coastal areas have undergone great changes over time driven by environmental conditions. Coastal settlements looked for places above flood levels and away from swamps and other wetlands whenever possible. As populations grew, cities were extending trying to avoid low and wet lands. No city has been able to limit its growth. The risk of flooding can never be eliminated, but only reduced to the extent possible. Flooding of coastal areas is today dramatically attributed to eustasic sea level rise caused by global climate change. This can be inaccurate. Current climate change is generating an average sea level upward trend, but other regional and local factors result in this trend being accentuated in some places or attenuated, and even reversed, in others. Then, the intensity and frequency of coastal flooding around the planet, although not so much as a unique result of this general eustasic elevation, but rather of the superposition of marine and crustal dynamic elements, the former also climate-related, which give rise to a temporary raising in average sea level in the short term. Since the Little Ice Age the planet has been suffering a global warming change leading to sea level rise. The idea of being too obeying to anthropogenic factors may be attributed to Arrhenius (1896), though it is of much later highlight after the sixties of the last century. Never before, the human factor had been able of such an influence on climate. However, other types of changes in sea levels became apparent, resulting from vertical movements of the crust, modifications of sea basins due to continents fracturing, drifting and coming together, or to different types of climate patterns. Coastal zones are then doubly susceptible to floods. Precipitation immediately triggers pluvial flooding. If it continues upland or when snow and glaciers melt eventually fluvial flooding can occur. The urban development presence represents modifying factors. Additional interference is caused by river and waste water drainage systems. Climate also influences sea levels in coastal areas, where tides as well as the structure and dynamic of the geoid and its crust come into play. From the sea, waters can flood and break or push back berms and other coastline borders. The sea level, controlling the mouth of the main channel of the basin's drainage system, is ultimately what governs flood levels. A temporary rise in sea level acts as a dam at the mouth. Even in absence of that global change, so, floods are likely going to increase in many urban coastal areas. Some kind of innovative methodologies and practices should be needed to get more flood resilience cities

Concrete Swelling in Two Spanish Dams

Several chemical reactions are able to produce swelling of concrete for decades after its initial curing, a problem that affects a considerable number of concrete dams around the world. Principia has had several contracts to study this problem in recent years, which have required reviewing the state-ofthe-art, adopting appropriate mathematical descriptions, programming them into user routines in Abaqus, determining model parameters on the basis of some parts of the dams’ monitored histories, ensuring reliability using some other parts, and finally predicting the future evolution of the dams and their safety margins. The paper describes some of the above experience, including the programming of sophisticated nonisotropic swelling models, that must be compatible with cracking and other nonlinearities involved in concrete behaviour. The applications concentrate on two specific cases, an arch-gravity dam and a double-curvature arch dam, both with a long history of concrete swelling and which, interestingly, entailed different degrees of success in the modelling efforts

Concrete Swelling in Existing Dams

Several chemical reactions are able to produce swelling of concrete for decades after its initial curing, a problem that affects a considerable number of concrete dams around the world. Principia has had several contracts to study this problem in recent years, which have required reviewing the state-of-the-art, adopting appropriate mathematical descriptions, programming them into user routines in Abaqus, determining model parameters on the basis of some parts of the dams’ monitored histories, ensuring reliability using some other parts, and finally predicting the future evolution of the dams and their safety margins. The paper describes some of the above experience, including the programming of sophisticated non-isotropic swelling models, that must be compatible with cracking and other nonlinearities involved in concrete behaviour. The applications concentrate on two specific cases, an archgravity dam and a double-curvature arch dam, both with a long history of concrete swelling and which, interestingly, entailed different degrees of success in the modelling efforts

Concrete Swelling in Two Spanish Dams

Several chemical reactions are able to produce swelling of concrete for decades after its initial curing, a problem that affects a considerable number of concrete dams around the world. Principia has had several contracts to study this problem in recent years, which have required reviewing the state-ofthe-art, adopting appropriate mathematical descriptions, programming them into user routines in Abaqus, determining model parameters on the basis of some parts of the dams’ monitored histories, ensuring reliability using some other parts, and finally predicting the future evolution of the dams and their safety margins. The paper describes some of the above experience, including the programming of sophisticated nonisotropic swelling models, that must be compatible with cracking and other nonlinearities involved in concrete behaviour. The applications concentrate on two specific cases, an arch-gravity dam and a double-curvature arch dam, both with a long history of concrete swelling and which, interestingly, entailed different degrees of success in the modelling efforts.

A bivariate return period based on copulas for hydrologic dam design: accounting for reservoir routing in risk estimation

A multivariate analysis on flood variables is needed to design some hydraulic structures like dams, as the complexity of the routing process in a reservoir requires a representation of the full hydrograph. In this work, a bivariate copula model was used to obtain the bivariate joint distribution of flood peak and volume, in order to know the probability of occurrence of a given inflow hydrograph. However, the risk of dam overtopping is given by the maximum water elevation reached during the routing process, which depends on the hydrograph variables, the reservoir volume and the spillway crest length. Consequently, an additional bivariate return period, the so-called routed return period, was defined in terms of risk of dam overtopping based on this maximum water elevation obtained after routing the inflow hydrographs. The theoretical return periods, which give the probability of occurrence of a hydrograph prior to accounting for the reservoir routing, were compared with the routed return period, as in both cases hydrographs with the same probability will draw a curve in the peak-volume space. The procedure was applied to the case study of the Santillana reservoir in Spain. Different reservoir volumes and spillway lengths were considered to investigate the influence of the dam and reservoir characteristics on the results. The methodology improves the estimation of the Design Flood Hydrograph and can be applied to assess the risk of dam overtopping

Design and construction of the Barriga Dam spillway through an improved wedge-shaped block technology

The Barriga Dam (Burgos, Spain) is a unique case study because its trapezoid spillway is located on the dam body and is composed of wedge-shaped concrete blocks (WSB) that include certain relevant improvements. This note summarizes the main features of the studies, the key aspects of the final design of the WSB and their placement on the dam, and important details of the spillway design. The design team concluded the study by showing the suitability of this enhanced technology for application to small dams and ponds in the short term, even with unit flows above 5 m2/s.

Metodología para la gestión integral de las presas de laminación de avenidas y su aplicación a la cuenca hidrográfica del Segura

En el levante español se producen periódicamente intensos aguaceros (gota fría), que generan grandes riadas, desbordándose los cauces y asolando los campos y las ciudades, ocasionando graves daños en la economía local y con frecuencia, por desgracia, víctimas personales. La Confederación Hidrográfica del Segura ha puesto en marcha un vasto sistema de protección, conocido como Plan de Defensa contra Avenidas, del que ya se encuentran en explotación un conjunto de presas cuyo objetivo prioritario es la laminación de las avenidas. Las presas de laminación ubicadas en esta área mediterránea son estructuras muy singulares, al estar ubicadas en cuencas extremadamente secas, con alta pendiente, rápida respuesta, picos altos de caudal, y gran poder erosivo del flujo. Las aguas arrastran en suspensión un alto porcentaje de aporte sólido y flotantes, que quedan retenidos en el embalse, aterrándolo e inutilizando los desagües. En esta tesis doctoral se analizan los criterios de actuación para la gestión de estas presas de laminación, con objeto de que se puedan introducir en las Normas de Explotación innovaciones destinadas a mejorar la eficiencia del conjunto, de manera que se consiga la máxima protección posible y al mismo tiempo se puedan aprovechar las aguas, sin menoscabo de su objetivo prioritario, para otros fines complementarios. Como consecuencia del trabajo realizado se indica la conveniencia de establecer un conjunto de normas de actuación comunes a todas las presas del sistema, como es la estrategia de recibir siempre a los hidrogramas de la riada con las compuertas de los desagües de fondo cerrados, o la conveniencia de que en todas las presas se dispongan compuertas en estos órganos. También se dictan recomendaciones en la gestión del vaciado, para conseguir el máximo aprovechamiento del agua, introduciendo el concepto innovador de los trasvases virtuales. Asimismo, se analiza la conveniencia de fijar normas diferenciales específicas atendiendo a las peculiaridades de cada presa, en cuanto se refiere al nivel máximo de explotación, al cumplimiento de los condicionantes ambientales, al mantenimiento de la calidad del agua, y a otros aspectos singulares que caracterizan a cada uno de estos embalses. The Spanish Mediterranean region hydrology is characterised by low rainfall, but concentrated in extreme convective events. Those heavy rains and storms lead to large, flash-floods which cause devastation of fields, villages and, unfortunately, loss of lives. Segura River Basin Authority has developed an ambitious plan for flood protection and control that is constituted by a system of flood protection dams, river channelling, river diversions diversions and levees. Flood protection dams placed on this area, are distinct structures, as they are located on extremely dry basins, with high slopes and limited vegetal covering. These facts, along with the very high rainfall intensity, are determinants of a rapid response and a very erosive flow. The flow transports a large rate of solids in suspension, and also debris, which many times block and clog the outlets intakes, disabling them. In such a case, the dam would be inoperative, in an emergency state and remedial measures should be taken. This PhD thesis analyses the flood protection dams operation criteria, for providing managers a methodology to analyse each individual case and also the flood protection system as a whole. Additionally practical rules and recommendations, to cope with the objectives of dam safety, flood protection and water resources use, are given. The rules consider the specific differences and risks that may be faced by the dams. To that end, they were grouped, depending on their characteristics: allowance for permanent water storage, environmental restrictions, water quality, geotechnical problems, type of structure, etc. As a result of this research, it is recommended to design these dams with valves for regulating the bottom outlets. The availability of valves is linked with the routing strategy of receiving flood with the outlets closed. This has been shown as the best measure to prevent clogging and opens the possibility of storing temporarily the water, making then a scheduled emptying of the reservoir, which could be computed as a virtual transfer to the regulating dams. Emptying should be done in accordance with the situation of the other dams of the system and of the rivers downstream. This detention time would make possible also the beginning of the sedimentation process which is necessary for using the water with the modern irrigation systems that are in use in this area.

A maternal diet high in n − 6 polyunsaturated fats alters mammary gland development, puberty onset, and breast cancer risk among female rat offspring

We hypothesized that feeding pregnant rats with a high-fat diet would increase both circulating 17β-estradiol (E2) levels in the dams and the risk of developing carcinogen-induced mammary tumors among their female offspring. Pregnant rats were fed isocaloric diets containing 12% or 16% (low fat) or 43% or 46% (high fat) of calories from corn oil, which primarily contains the n − 6 polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) linoleic acid, throughout pregnancy. The plasma concentrations of E2 were significantly higher in pregnant females fed a high n − 6 PUFA diet. The female offspring of these rats were fed with a laboratory chow from birth onward, and when exposed to 7,12-dimethylbenz(a)anthracene had a significantly higher mammary tumor incidence (60% vs. 30%) and shorter latency for tumor appearance (11.4 ± 0.5 weeks vs. 14.2 ± 0.6 weeks) than the offspring of the low-fat mothers. The high-fat offspring also had puberty onset at a younger age, and their mammary glands contained significantly higher numbers of the epithelial structures that are the targets for malignant transformation. Comparable changes in puberty onset, mammary gland morphology, and tumor incidence were observed in the offspring of rats treated daily with 20 ng of E2 during pregnancy. These data, if extrapolated to humans, may explain the link among diet, early puberty onset, mammary parenchymal patterns, and breast cancer risk, and indicate that an in utero exposure to a diet high in n − 6 PUFA and/or estrogenic stimuli may be critical for affecting breast cancer risk.