An extreme value theory approach to calculating minimum capital risk requirements

This paper investigates the frequency of extreme events for three LIFFE futures contracts for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs). We propose a semiparametric approach where the tails are modelled by the Generalized Pareto Distribution and smaller risks are captured by the empirical distribution function. We compare the capital requirements form this approach with those calculated from the unconditional density and from a conditional density - a GARCH(1,1) model. Our primary finding is that both in-sample and for a hold-out sample, our extreme value approach yields superior results than either of the other two models which do not explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Since the use of these internal models will be permitted under the EC-CAD II, they could be widely adopted in the near future for determining capital adequacies. Hence, close scrutiny of competing models is required to avoid a potentially costly misallocation capital resources while at the same time ensuring the safety of the financial system.

Ownership, occupation and risk: a view of the City of London office market

Office returns in the City of London are more volatile than in other UK markets. This volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the City. Using current and historical data, patterns of ownership in the City are investigated. They reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985, that owners are predominantly FIRE-sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation. This raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk in a market strongly influenced by the cyclical behaviour and shocks of the international financial system.

International investment, ownership and risk in the City of London office market: an analysis of trends 1972-1997

Office returns in the City of London are more volatile than in other UK markets. This volatility may reflect fluctuations in capital flows associated with changing patterns of ownership and the growing linkage between real estate and financial markets in the City. Using current and historical data, patterns of ownership in the City are investigated. They reveal that overseas ownership has grown markedly since 1985, that owners are predominantly FIRE sector firms and that there are strong links between ownership and occupation. This raises concerns about future volatility and systemic risk.

‘Nudging’ energy users: regulatory measures to address the risk of aggregate peak demand in European electricity markets

For decades regulators in the energy sector have focused on facilitating the maximisation of energy supply in order to meet demand through liberalisation and removal of market barriers. The debate on climate change has emphasised a new type of risk in the balance between energy demand and supply: excessively high energy demand brings about significantly negative environmental and economic impacts. This is because if a vast number of users is consuming electricity at the same time, energy suppliers have to activate dirty old power plants with higher greenhouse gas emissions and higher system costs. The creation of a Europe-wide electricity market requires a systematic investigation into the risk of aggregate peak demand. This paper draws on the e-Living Time-Use Survey database to assess the risk of aggregate peak residential electricity demand for European energy markets. Findings highlight in which countries and for what activities the risk of aggregate peak demand is greater. The discussion highlights which approaches energy regulators have started considering to convince users about the risks of consuming too much energy during peak times. These include ‘nudging’ approaches such as the roll-out of smart meters, incentives for shifting the timing of energy consumption, differentiated time-of-use tariffs, regulatory financial incentives and consumption data sharing at the community level.

Credit risk in covered bonds

Covered bonds are a promising alternative for prime mortgage securitization. In this paper, we explore risk premia in the covered bond market and particularly investigate whether and how credit risk is priced. In extant literature, yield spreads between high-quality covered bonds and government bonds are often interpreted as pure liquidity premia. In contrast, we show that although liquidity is important, it is not the exclusive risk factor. Using a hand-collected data set of cover pool information, we find that the credit quality of the cover assets is an important determinant of covered bond yield spreads. This effect is particularly strong in times of financial turmoil and has a significant influence on the issuer's refinancing cost.

e-Government as a regulatory response to the financial crisis: the case of the UK

This paper seeks to discuss EU policies relating to securities markets, created in the wake of the financial crisis and how ICT and specifically e-Government can be utilised within this context. This study utilises the UK as a basis for our discussion. The recent financial crisis has caused a change of perspective in relation to government services and polices. The regulation of the financial sector has been heavily criticised and so is undergoing radical change in the UK and the rest of Europe. New regulatory bodies are being defined with more focus on taking a risk-based system-wide approach to regulating the financial sector. This approach aims to prevent financial institutions becoming too big to fail and thus require massive government bail outs. In addition, a new wave of EU regulation is in the wind to update risk management practices and to further protect investors. This paper discusses the reasons for the financial crisis and the UK’s past and future regulatory landscape. The current and future approach and strategies adopted by the UK’s financial regulators are reviewed as is the lifecycle of EU Directives. The regulatory responses to the crisis are discussed and upcoming regulatory hotspots identified. Discussion of these issues provides the context for our evaluation of the role e-Government and ICT in improving the regulatory system. We identify several processes, which are elementary for regulatory compliance and discuss how ICT is elementary in their implementation. The processes considered include those required for internal control and monitoring, risk management, record keeping and disclosure to regulatory bodies. We find these processes offer an excellent opportunity to adopt an e-Government approach to improve services to both regulated businesses and individual investors through the benefits derived from a more effective and efficient regulatory system.

Risk allocation in a public–private partnership: a case study of construction and operation of kindergartens in Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, a transitional nation in Central Asia, the development of public–private partnerships (PPPs) is at its early stage and increasingly of strategic importance. This case study investigates risk allocation in an ongoing project: the construction and operation of 11 kindergartens in the city of Karaganda in the concession form for 14 years. Drawing on a conceptual framework of effective risk allocation, the study identifies principal PPP risks, provides a critical assessment of how and in what way each partner bears a certain risk, highlights the reasons underpinning risk allocation decisions and delineates the lessons learned. The findings show that the government has effectively transferred most risks to the private sector partner, whilst both partners share the demand risk of childcare services and the project default risk. The strong elements of risk allocation include clear assignment of parties’ responsibilities, streamlined financing schemes and incentives to complete the main project phases on time. However, risk allocation has missed an opportunity to create incentives for service quality improvements and take advantage of economies of scale. The most controversial element of risk allocation, as the study finds, is a revenue stream that an operator is supposed to receive from the provision of services unrelated to childcare, as neither partner is able to mitigate this revenue risk. The article concludes that in the kindergartens’ PPP, the government has achieved almost complete transfer of risks to the private sector partner. However, the costs of transfer are extensive government financial outlays that seriously compromise the PPP value for money.

What will be the risk-free rate and benchmark yield curve following European monetary union?

Using a linear factor model, we study the behaviour of French, Germany, Italian and British sovereign yield curves in the run up to EMU. This allows us to determine which of these yield curves might best approximate a benchmark yield curve post EMU. We find that the best approximation for the risk free yield is the UK three month T-bill yield, followed by the German three month T-bill yield. As no one sovereign yield curve dominates all others, we find that a composite yield curve, consisting of French, Italian and UK bonds at different maturity points along the yield curve should be the benchmark post EMU.

Institutional pressures on financial services firms: the role of information systems in regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2008 led to new international regulatory controls for the governance, risk and compliance of financial services firms. Information systems play a critical role here as political, functional and social pressures may lead to the deinstitutionalization of existing structures, processes and practices. This research examines how an investment management system is introduced by a leading IT vendor across eight client sites in the post-crisis era. Using institutional theory, it examines changes in working practices occurring at the environmental and organizational levels and the ways in which technological interventions are used to apply disciplinary effects in order to prevent inappropriate behaviors. The results extend the constructs of deinstitutionalization and identify empirical predictors for the deinstitutionalization of compliance and trading practices within financial organizations.

The mediating effect of environmental and ethical behaviour on supply chain partnership decisions and management appreciation of supplier partnership risks

Green supply chain management and environmental and ethical behaviour (EEB), a major component of corporate responsibility (CR), are rapidly developing fields in research and practice. The influence and effect of EEB at the functional level, however, is under-researched. Similarly, the management of risk in the supply chain has become a practical concern for many firms. It is important that managers have a good understanding of the risks associated with supplier partnerships. This paper examines the effect of firms’ investment in EEB as part of corporate social responsibility in mediating the relationship between supply chain partnership (SCP) and management appreciation of the risk of partnering. We hypothesise that simply entering into a SCP does not facilitate an appreciation of the risk of partnering and may even hamper such awareness. However, such an appreciation of the risk is facilitated through CR’s environmental and stakeholder management ethos. The study contributes further by separating risk into distinct relational and performance components. The results of a firm-level survey confirm the mediation effect, highlighting the value to supply chain strategy and design of investing in EEB on three fronts: building internal awareness, monitoring and sharing best practice.

Paying for long-term performance: restructuring bankers’ pay for risk regulation

The purpose of this paper is to propose hybrid capital securities as a new approach to compensation for senior bank executives and risk-takers instead of cash or equity-based compensation currently adopted by the industry. The global financial turmoil indicated that misaligned pay-for-performance compensation arrangements encouraged management short-termism and rewarded excessive risk-taking behaviour in Anglo-Saxon system. Rather than regulating specific instruments and processes, we believe that it is much more efficient to overhaul the compensation scheme to align it with risk management and governance. This empirical paper investigates the European hybrid market by employing data from the Merrill Lynch Global Index System from 2000 to 2010. Our paper contributes to both literature and practices by designing a structured scheme to tie the executive’s interests to long-term performance of the bank, the goal of regulators and the economy at large which consequently reduce the probability of future bank failures.

Knowledge process outsourcing in financial services: The vendor perspective

This research reports the findings from a study on nine knowledge process outsourcing (KPO) vendors working in the financial services industry. It delineates financial business processes along a low to high-end continuum. Findings suggest that KPO vendors are gradually moving along the value pathway offering more complex intellectual value activity based products and services to clients. However, they face many challenges including gaining the confidence of potential clients about outsourcing knowledge-intensive work, and finding effective solutions to mitigate outsourcing risk. Our paper concludes by developing a taxonomy of KPO scenarios to provide a backdrop for further academic research and to illustrate current practice.

Common components of risk and uncertainty attitudes across contexts and domains: Evidence from 30 countries

Attitudes towards risk and uncertainty have been indicated to be highly context-dependent, and to be sensitive to the measurement technique employed. We present data collected in controlled experiments with 2,939 subjects in 30 countries measuring risk and uncertainty attitudes through incentivized measures as well as survey questions. Our data show clearly that measures correlate not only within decision contexts or measurement methods, but also across contexts and methods. This points to the existence of one underlying “risk preference”, which influences attitudes independently of the measurement method or choice domain. We furthermore find that answers to a general and a financial survey question correlate with incentivized lottery choices in most countries. Incentivized and survey measures also correlate significantly between countries. This opens the possibility to conduct cultural comparisons on risk attitudes using survey instruments.

Risk taking for oneself and others: a structural model approach

Economic theory makes no predictions about social factors affecting decisions under risk. We examine situations in which a decision maker decides for herself and another person under conditions of payoff equality, and compare them to individual decisions. By estimating a structural model, we find that responsibility leaves utility curvature unaffected, but accentuates the subjective distortion of very small and very large probabilities for both gains and losses. We also find that responsibility reduces loss aversion, but that these results only obtain under some specific definitions of the latter. These results serve to generalize and reconcile some of the still largely contradictory findings in the literature. They also have implications for financial agency, which we discuss.