914 resultados para Feynman-Kac formula Markov semigroups principal eigenvalue
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In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.
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A Third Report from the Capitation Formula Review Group
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Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic models that are well adapted to many tasks in bioinformatics, for example, for predicting the occurrence of specific motifs in biological sequences. MAMOT is a command-line program for Unix-like operating systems, including MacOS X, that we developed to allow scientists to apply HMMs more easily in their research. One can define the architecture and initial parameters of the model in a text file and then use MAMOT for parameter optimization on example data, decoding (like predicting motif occurrence in sequences) and the production of stochastic sequences generated according to the probabilistic model. Two examples for which models are provided are coiled-coil domains in protein sequences and protein binding sites in DNA. A wealth of useful features include the use of pseudocounts, state tying and fixing of selected parameters in learning, and the inclusion of prior probabilities in decoding. AVAILABILITY: MAMOT is implemented in C++, and is distributed under the GNU General Public Licence (GPL). The software, documentation, and example model files can be found at http://bcf.isb-sib.ch/mamot
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Tubulointerstitial inflammation is a common feature of renal diseases. We have investigated the relationship between inflammation and Na(+) transport in the collecting duct (CD) using the mCCD(cl1) and mpkCDD(cl4) principal cell models. Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) decreased basal and aldosterone-stimulated amiloride-sensitive transepithelial current in a time-dependent manner. This effect was associated with a decrease in serum and glucocorticoid-regulated kinase 1 (SGK1) mRNA and protein levels followed by a decrease in epithelial sodium channel (ENaC) alpha-subunit mRNA levels. The LPS-induced decrease in SGK1 expression was confirmed in isolated rat CD. This decreased expression of either SGK1 or the ENaC alpha-subunit was not due to enhanced degradation of mRNA. In contrast, LPS inhibited transcriptional activity of the SGK1 promoter measured by luciferase-reporter gene assay. The effect of LPS was not mediated by inhibition of mineralocorticoid or glucocorticoid receptor, because expression of both receptors was unchanged and blockade of either receptor by spironolactone or RU486, respectively, did not prevent the down-regulation of SGK1. The effect of LPS was mediated by the canonical NF-kappaB pathway, as overexpression of a constitutively active mutant, IKKbeta (inhibitor of nuclear factor kappaB kinase-beta) decreased SGK1 mRNA levels, and knockdown of p65 NF-kappaB subunit by small interfering RNA increased SGK1 mRNA levels. Chromatin immunoprecipitation showed that LPS increased p65 binding to two NF-kappaB sites along the SGK1 promoter. In conclusion, we show that activation of the NF-kappaB pathway down-regulates SGK1 expression, which might lead to decreased ENaC alpha-subunit expression, ultimately resulting in decreased Na(+) transport.
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OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nalmefene combined with psychosocial support is cost-effective compared with psychosocial support alone for reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol-dependent patients with high/very high drinking risk levels (DRLs) as defined by the WHO, and to evaluate the public health benefit of reducing harmful alcohol-attributable diseases, injuries and deaths. DESIGN: Decision modelling using Markov chains compared costs and effects over 5 years. SETTING: The analysis was from the perspective of the National Health Service (NHS) in England and Wales. PARTICIPANTS: The model considered the licensed population for nalmefene, specifically adults with both alcohol dependence and high/very high DRLs, who do not require immediate detoxification and who continue to have high/very high DRLs after initial assessment. DATA SOURCES: We modelled treatment effect using data from three clinical trials for nalmefene (ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941)). Baseline characteristics of the model population, treatment resource utilisation and utilities were from these trials. We estimated the number of alcohol-attributable events occurring at different levels of alcohol consumption based on published epidemiological risk-relation studies. Health-related costs were from UK sources. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We measured incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained and number of alcohol-attributable harmful events avoided. RESULTS: Nalmefene in combination with psychosocial support had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £5204 per QALY gained, and was therefore cost-effective at the £20,000 per QALY gained decision threshold. Sensitivity analyses showed that the conclusion was robust. Nalmefene plus psychosocial support led to the avoidance of 7179 alcohol-attributable diseases/injuries and 309 deaths per 100,000 patients compared to psychosocial support alone over the course of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Nalmefene can be seen as a cost-effective treatment for alcohol dependence, with substantial public health benefits. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: This cost-effectiveness analysis was developed based on data from three randomised clinical trials: ESENSE 1 (NCT00811720), ESENSE 2 (NCT00812461) and SENSE (NCT00811941).
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Background: Old age is associated with an involuntary and progressive but physiological loss of muscle mass. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of exclusive consumption for 6 months of a protein-enriched enteral diet with a relatively high content of branched-chain amino acids on albuminemia, cortisolemia, plasma aminoacids, insulin resistance, and inflammation biomarkers in elderly patients. Methods: Thirty-two patients from the Clinical Nutrition Outpatient Unit at our hospital exclusively consumed a protein-enriched enteral diet for 6 months. Data were collected at baseline and at 3 and 6 months on anthropometric and biochemical parameters and on plasma concentrations of amino acids, cortisol,adrenocorticotropic hormone, urea, creatinine, insulin resistance, and inflammation biomarkers. Results: The percentage of patients with albumin concentration below normal cut-off values decreased from 18% to 0% by the end of the study. At 6 months, concentrations of total plasma (p = 0.008) and essential amino acids(p = 0.011), especially branched-chain amino acids (p = 0.031), were higher versus baseline values, whereas 3-methylhistidine (p = 0.001), cortisol (p = 0.001) and adrenocorticotropic hormone (p = 0.004) levels were lower. Conclusions: Regular intake of specific protein-enriched enteral formula increases plasma essential amino acids, especially branched-chain amino acids, and decreases cortisol and 3-methylhistidine, while plasma urea and creatinine remain unchanged.
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The molluscicidal activity of Hammada scoparia leaf extracts and the principal alkaloids isolated from them (carnegine and N-methylisosalsoline) were tested against the mollusc gastropod, Galba truncatula, the intermediate host of Fasciola hepatica in Tunisia. The results indicated that the molluscicidal activity was correlated with the presence of alkaloids. A significant molluscicidal value, according to the World Health Organization, was found with the methanol extract (LC50 = 28.93 ppm). Further fractionation of the methanolic extract led to the isolation of two principal alkaloids: carnegine and N-methylisosalsoline. These alkaloids are isoquinolines that have not previously been characterised for their molluscicidal activity. The N-methylisosalsoline possesses the highest molluscicidal activity (LC50 = 0.47 μM against G. truncatula).
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The use of perturbation and power transformation operations permits the investigation of linear processes in the simplex as in a vectorial space. When the investigated geochemical processes can be constrained by the use of well-known starting point, the eigenvectors of the covariance matrix of a non-centred principalcomponent analysis allow to model compositional changes compared with a reference point.The results obtained for the chemistry of water collected in River Arno (central-northern Italy) have open new perspectives for considering relative changes of the analysed variables and to hypothesise the relative effect of different acting physical-chemical processes, thus posing the basis for a quantitative modelling
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In human Population Genetics, routine applications of principal component techniques are oftenrequired. Population biologists make widespread use of certain discrete classifications of humansamples into haplotypes, the monophyletic units of phylogenetic trees constructed from severalsingle nucleotide bimorphisms hierarchically ordered. Compositional frequencies of the haplotypesare recorded within the different samples. Principal component techniques are then required as adimension-reducing strategy to bring the dimension of the problem to a manageable level, say two,to allow for graphical analysis.Population biologists at large are not aware of the special features of compositional data and normally make use of the crude covariance of compositional relative frequencies to construct principalcomponents. In this short note we present our experience with using traditional linear principalcomponents or compositional principal components based on logratios, with reference to a specificdataset
The Mixture Transition Distribution Model for High-Order Markov Chains and Non-Gaussian Time Series.
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La perception de la productivité SUMMARY The main objective of this thesis is the perception of the productivity in the luxury hospitality industry. Despite a lot of efforts which were already made in the field of the production of goods, this concept (productivity) still remains to be defined in the services sector, more still, in that of the luxury hospitality industry. Since the object of this study is the perception of productivity, we decided to analyze the elements considered to be relevant by the top management in this field. Then, it seemed important to evaluate these same elements for the categories of middle-management and by the in-line employees. As perception is not static, it is dependent in an indirect way on its improvement and however also with the means of improvement. The assumption of our work evokes the possible relationship between productivity and its perception (P), (Q) quality and profitability (R). On this basis we built the P-Q-R model: R=F(P,Q) Finally, our research on this model enabled us to establish a mathematical relation between the three predetermined elements: fR=fP+fQ+c That means that the function efficiency of a process of services -(fR) is the sum of its quality function (intrinsic and extrinsic)-(fP) and of its productivity function - fQ (and the constant of regression "c"). To increase the profitability of the most significant manner, it is necessary to increase at the same time the productivity and quality. On the other hand, according to this formula but also according to the perception of the managers, with a constant profitability, either the productivity decreases in favor of the increase in quality, or the reverse. If the dimensions of the model influence positively or negatively the production process of services, then those wí11 influence in same manner our model (P, Q, R). We advance a point of view saying that profitability depends on the labor productivity which follows same dynamics than the perception of the productivity. The identification of the labor productivity as an essential element of successful management of the hotel is fundamental. The question which always remains in suspense is however the relevance of the concept "labor productivity" for the luxury hospitality industry. It was not proven an obvious correlation between this notion and the one of profitability. We still remain at the stage of perception. It results that one interesting way of future research will be the study of this correlation. As in any kind of luxury industry, the real added value does not consist in the volume produced or in the speed with which the product/service is carried out but in the creativity involved in their results. Let us note that the field of luxury is extremely related to the emotions and to the experience provided to the customers. La perception de la productivité... RÉSUME L'objectif principal de cette thèse est la perception de la productivité dans l'hôtellerie de luxe. Malgré tous les efforts qui ont déjà été faits dans le domaine de la production de biens, ce concept (productivité) reste encore à définir dans le secteur des services, plus encore, dans celui de l'hôtellerie de luxe. Étant donné que l'objet de l'étude est la perception de la productivité, nous avons décidé d'analyser les éléments jugés pertinents par les cadres dirigeants dans ce domaine. Puis, il nous a semblé important d'évaluer ces mêmes éléments pour les catégories de cadres moyens et par les employés in-line. Comme la perception n'est pas statique, elle est liée d'une manière indirecte à son amélioration et cependant également aux moyens d'amélioration. L'hypothèse de notre travail évoque la possible relation entre la productivité et sa perception (P), la qualité (Q) et la rentabilité (R). Sur cette base nous avons construit le modèle P-Q-R de départ R=f(P,Q) Finalement, notre recherche sur ce modèle nous a permis d'établir une relation mathématique entre les trois construits prédéterminés: fR=fP+fQ+c Cela signifie que la fonction rentabilité d'un processus de services -(fR) est la somme de sa fonction qualité (intrinsèque et extrinsèque)-fP et de sa fonction productivité -fQ (plus la constante de régression « c ») Pour augmenter la rentabilité de la manière la plus significative, il faut augmenter en même temps la productivité et la qualité. En revanche, selon cette formule mais selon aussi la perception des managers, à une rentabilité constante, soit la productivité diminue en faveur de l'augmentation de la qualité, soit l'inverse. Si les dimensions du modèle influencent positivement ou négativement le processus de production de services, alors celles-ci vont influencer de la même manière les construits de notre modèle (P, Q, R). Nous avançons un point de vue disant que la rentabilité dépend de la productivité du travail qui suit la même dynamique que la perception de la productivité. L'identification de la productivité du travail comme élément essentiel de gestion réussie de l'hôtel s'avère fondamentale. La question qui reste toujours en suspens est pourtant la pertinence de la notion «productivité du travail » pour l'industrie hôtelière de luxe. Il n'a pas été prouvé une corrélation évidente entre cette notion et celle de la profitabilité. Nous restons donc ici encore au stade de perception. Il en résulte que l'une des voies les plus intéressantes de recherche future sera l'étude de cette corrélation. Comme dans toute industrie de luxe, la vraie valeur ajoutée ne consiste pas toujours dans le volume produit, ni dans la vitesse avec laquelle le produit/service est réalisé, mais parfois dans la créativité emmagasinée dans ces résultats. Notons que le domaine de luxe est extrêmement lié aux émotions et à l'expérience fournie aux clients.
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This paper aims to provide empirical support for the use of the principal-agent framework in the analysis of public sector and public policies. After reviewing the different conditions to be met for a relevant analysis of the relationship between population and government using the principal-agent theory, our paper focuses on the assumption of conflicting goals between the principal and the agent. A principal-agent analysis assumes in effect that inefficiencies may arise because principal and agent pursue different goals. Using data collected during an amalgamation project of two Swiss municipalities, we show the existence of a gap between the goals of the population and those of the government. Consequently, inefficiencies as predicted by the principal-agent model may arise during the implementation of a public policy, i.e. an amalgamation project. In a context of direct democracy where policies are regularly subjected to referendum, the conflict of objectives may even lead to a total failure of the policy at the polls.