Detecting and evaluating land cover change in the eastern half of East Timor (1972-2011)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

Transfer of radionuclides from soil to vegetation in selected Irish ecosystems

This thesis details the findings of a study relating the transfer of 238U, 228Ra (232Th), 226Ra, and 137Cs from soil to vegetation in an Atlantic blanket bog, upland blanket bog and semi-natural grassland situated along the north-west coast of Ireland. The results of this study provide information on the uptake of these radionuclides by the indigenous vegetation found present in these ecosystems. The ecosystems chosen are internationally recognizable ecosystems and provide a wide variety of vegetation species and contrasting soil physiochemical properties which allow the influence of these parameters on radionuclide uptake to be assessed. The levels of radionuclides in the soil and vegetation were measured using gamma spectrometry, alpha spectrometry and ICP-MS. The nutrient status of the vegetation and soil physiochemical properties were measured using atomic absorption, flame photometry and other analytical techniques. The results of the study indicate that the uptake of 238U and 228Ra (232Th) by vegetation from all three ecosystems was negligible as the levels in all vegetation was below the limits of detection for the methods used in this study. These results appear to indicate that the vegetation studied do not possess the ability to accumulate significant levels of these radionuclides however this assumption cannot be upheld in the case of the Atlantic blanket bog as the levels in the soil of this ecosystem were too low for detection. Similar results were obtained for 226Ra uptake in both the Atlantic blanket bog and grassland for all vegetation with the exception of H. lanatus from the grassland ecosystem. Radium-226 uptake in upland blanket bog was higher and was detectable in the majority of vegetation indigenous to this ecosystem. Transfer factor values ranged from 0.07 to 2.35 and the TF values for E. tetralix were significantly higher than all other vegetation studied. This species of heather demonstrated the ability to accumulate 226Ra to a greater extent than all other vegetation. The uptake of 226Ra by upland blanket bog vegetation appears to be significantly influenced by a range of soil physiochemical properties. The nutrient status of the vegetation, in particular the calcium content in the vegetation appears to have a negative impact on the uptake of this radionuclide. Potassium-40 was detectable in all vegetation present in the three ecosystems and the levels in the grassland soil were significantly higher than the levels in both bogland soils. Transfer factor values for Atlantic blanket bog vegetation ranged from 0.9 to 13 .8 and were significantly higher in E. vaginatum in comparison to C. vulgaris. Potassium-40 TF values for upland blanket bog vegetation on average ranged from 1.4 for C. vulgaris (stems) to 5.2 for E. vaginatum and were statistically similar for all species of vegetation. Transfer factor values for grassland vegetation ranged from 0.7 to 3.8 and were also statistically similar for all species of vegetation indicating that the transfer of 40K to vegetation within the upland bog and grassland ecosystem is not dependent on plant species. Comparisons of 40K TF values for all three ecosystems indicate that the uptake in E. vaginatum from the Atlantic blanket bog was statistically higher than all other vegetation studied. This appears to indicate that E. vaginatum has the ability to accumulate 40K, however, this species of vegetation was also present in the upland blanket and did not demonstrate the same behaviour. The uptake of 40K by vegetation from all three ecosystems was significantly affected by a range of soil physiochemical properties and in some cases the results were contradictory in nature possibly indicating that the affect of these parameters on 40K uptake is species dependent. The most obvious trend in the data was the influence of soil CEC and magnesium levels in vegetation on 40K TF values. A positive correlation was apparent between the CEC of the soil and 40K uptake in vegetation from both the Atlantic blanket bog and grassland ecosystem. A similar trend was apparent between magnesium levels in vegetation and 40K TF values for the upland blanket bog and grassland vegetation. Caesium-13 7 levels were found to be significantly higher in the two bogland soils in comparison to the grassland soil and levels of 137Cs decreased with increasing soil depth. Transfer factor values for Atlantic blanket bog vegetation ranged from 1.9 to 9.6 and TF values were significantly higher in the leaves o f C. vulgaris in comparison to all other vegetation from this ecosystem. Caesium-13 7 TF values for the upland blanket bog vegetation on average ranged from 0.29 for E. tetralix to 1.6 for C. vulgaris. Uptake by the leaves of C. vulgaris was significantly higher than all other vegetation present thereby supporting the trend found within the Atlantic blanket bog vegetation. These results appear to indicate that the leaves of C. vulgaris have the ability to accumulate significant quantities of 137Cs and also that the uptake of 137Cs by this vegetation is dependent on plant compartment as the stems of this vegetation contained significantly lower levels than the leaves in both ecosystems. The uptake of 137Cs by grassland vegetation was very low and was only detectable in a fraction of the vegetation sampled. Caesium-137 TF values for grassland vegetation were in general lower than 0.02. The impact of soil physiochemical properties and nutrient status of vegetation on 137Cs uptake by vegetation appears to be complex and in some cases contradictory. The most apparent trend in the data was the positive influence of vegetation nutrients on 137Cs uptake in particular the magnesium levels present in the vegetation and to a lesser extent the calcium levels present. The results in general indicate that the uptake of 226Ra, 40K and 137Cs by the chosen vegetation is varied and complex and is significantly dependent on the species of vegetation, soil radionuclide concentration, soil physiochemical properties and the nutrient status of the vegetation.

Development of a rehabilitation system for the red mud waste generated at the Aughinish Alumina Bayer Plant

Aughinish Alumina Limited (AAL) have an obligation by terms of their Integrated Pollution Control Licence (IPCL) and Planning Permission to establish vegetation on the red mud stack at their plant at Aughinish, Co. Limerick. High pH and high exchangeable sodium percentage are the main known factors limiting the establishment of vegetation on red mud. Gypsum addition has been known to assist in alleviating these problems in other countries. However, there is no experience or published information on red mud rehabilitation under Irish conditions. Red mud with organic and inorganic waste-derived ameliorants as well as selected grassland species were examined under laboratory controlled environment conditions as well as in field plot trials. Also, in order that it would be economically achievable, the research utilised locally available waste products as the organic amendments. Screening trials found that physical constraints severely limit plant germination and growth in red mud. Gypsum addition effectively lowers pH, exchangeable sodium percentage and the availability of A1 and Fe in the mud. A strong relationship between pH, ESP and A1 levels was also found. Gypsum addition increased germination percentages and plant growth for all species investigated. Greenhouse trials demonstrated that organic wastes alone did not greatly improve conditions for plant growth but when used in conjunction with gypsum plant performances for all species investigated was significantly increased. There was a high mortality rate for grasses in non-gypsum treatments. An emerging trend of preferential iron uptake and calcium deficiency in non-gypsum treatments was found at pot screening stage. Species also displayed manganese and magnesium deficiencies.

A nutrient balance model for typical Irish farming systems

The twin objectives of the work described were to construct nutrient balance models (NBM) for a range of Irish animal production systems and to evaluate their potential as a means of estimating the nutrient composition of farm wastes. The NBM has three components. The first is the intake of nutrients in the animal's diet. The second is retention or the nutrients the animal retains for the production of milk, meat or eggs. The third is the balance or the difference between the nutrient intake and retention. Data on the intake levels and their nutrient value for dairy cows, beef cattle, pigs and poultry systems were assembled. Literature searches and interviews with National experts were the primary sources of information. NBMs were then constructed for each production system. Summary tables of the nutrient values for the common diet constituents used in Irish animal production systems, the nutrient composition of the animal products and the NBMs (nutrient intake, retention and excretion) for a range of production systems were assembled. These represent the first comprehensive data set of this type for Irish animal production systems. There was generally good agreement between the derived NBMs values and those published in the literature. The NBMs were validated on a number of farms. Data on animal numbers, fertiliser use, concentrates inputs and production output were recorded on seven farms. Using the data a nutrient input/output balance was constructed for each farm. This was compared with the NBM estimate of the farm nutrient balance. The results showed good agreement between the measured balance and the NBM estimate particularly for the pig and poultry farms. However, the validation emphasised the inherent risks associated with NBMs. The average values used for feed intake and production parameters in the NEMs may result in the under or over estimate of actual nutrient balances on individual farms where these variables are substantially different. On the grassland farms there was a poor correlation between the input/output estimate and the NBM. This possibly results from the omission of the soil's contribution to the nutrient balance. However, the results indicate that the NBMs developed are a potentially useful tool for estimating nutrient balances. They also will serve to highlight the significant fraction of the nutrient inputs into farming systems that are retained on the farm. The potential of the NBM as a means of estimating the nutrient composition of farm wastes was evaluated on two farms. Feed intake and composition, animal production, slurry production was monitored during the indoor winter feeding period. Slurry samples were taken for analysis. The appropriates NBMs were used to estimate the nutrient balance for each farm. The nutrient content of the slurry produced was calculated. There was a good agreement between the NBM estimate and the measured values. This preliminary evaluation suggests that the NBM has a potential to provide the farmer with a simple means of estimating the nutrient value of his slurry.

Bird-habitat associations in coastal rangelands of southern Brazil

Nearly all remnants of temperate grasslands in southeastern South America are used for livestock ranching and are subject to habitat degradation resulting from this activity. Exploring how habitat features affect the composition of grassland avifaunal communities is a first step to understand how current cattle-ranching management practices impact avian diversity. We used canonical ordination to test for relationships between five habitat variables and the composition of the bird community in coastal grasslands in southern Brazil. We sampled pastures with different heights, from overgrazed short-grass to tall herbaceous vegetation. We recorded 1,535 individuals and 27 species of birds. The first ordination axis indicated a strong contribution of mean vegetation height on the composition of the bird community, whereas the second axis revealed the influence of herbaceous vegetation patchiness and woody vegetation cover. Three groups of species were revealed by the ordination: one more diffuse associated with intermediate and tall herbaceous vegetation, another with short grass, and a third with vegetation patchiness and woody vegetation. Species restricted to tall herbaceous vegetation are negatively impacted from habitat degradation resulting from overgrazing and trampling by livestock, and mowing and burning of tall plants. Occurrence of these species in our study area is related with the presence of swales immediately behind the dune system and where remnants of tall vegetation persist. Birds of pastures with ample cover of short herbaceous plants, including one globally threatened species and six other restricted to short-grass habitat, apparently benefit from local livestock management practices. Woody vegetation possibly functions as a keystone structure, enabling the occurrence in grasslands of avian species that rely on shrubby habitat. Although livestock ranching promotes the diversity of habitats by creating distinct patches of vegetation height in grasslands, current management practices directed to the maintenance of short grass pastures may eliminate an entire subset of species, including regionally threatened taxa, and reduce avian diversity. The maintenance of large patches of tall herbaceous plants is needed to ensure the survival of species reliant on this type of grassland structure in our study area.

Diversity, composition and phenology of araneid orb-weavers (Araneae, Araneidae) associated with riparian forests in southern Brazil

The Araneidae is a speciose family including web-spinning spiders that are very abundant in various terrestrial ecosystems. Several studies demonstrate that changes in vegetation surrounding rivers, streams and brooks affect the associated araneofauna. The aim of this research was to compare differences found in diversity (abundance and richness), composition and phenology of Araneidae spiders sampled in different habitats in four riparian forest catchments in southern Brazil. Samples were taken from riparian forests in four rivers of Rio Grande do Sul State: Piratini, Camaquã, Sinos and Maquiné rivers, each in a different hydrographic basin. Samples were taken twice seasonally on each basin during two years, sampling the araneofauna of the tree-shrub strata with beating tray. Six transects were employed on each basin, two per habitat: edge with grassland, forest interior and river edge. Araneids totalled 20 genera and 65 species. Comparing riparian forests significant differences are found. Spider abundance differed among riparian forests as well as species richness. Overall, Piratini river riparian forest had the higher abundance and richness for Araneidae; the lower values were in Sinos river forest. The stronger degradation and fragmentation of the riparian forests of Sinos river probably influenced the results, with human disturbance gradients associated negatively to web building. We present data on the diversity of these spiders, which were very abundant in the riparian forest interior and very rich in species in the grassland/riparian forest edge. Species composition also differs among the studied habitats (the above plus river/riparian forest edge). For the most abundant species the phenological pattern across the seasons was also analysed.

Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

The origins of C4 grasslands: integrating evolutionary and ecosystem science.

The evolution of grasses using C4 photosynthesis and their sudden rise to ecological dominance 3 to 8 million years ago is among the most dramatic examples of biome assembly in the geological record. A growing body of work suggests that the patterns and drivers of C4 grassland expansion were considerably more complex than originally assumed. Previous research has benefited substantially from dialog between geologists and ecologists, but current research must now integrate fully with phylogenetics. A synthesis of grass evolutionary biology with grassland ecosystem science will further our knowledge of the evolution of traits that promote dominance in grassland systems and will provide a new context in which to evaluate the relative importance of C4 photosynthesis in transforming ecosystems across large regions of Earth.

Testing low-altitude infrared digital photography from a mini-UAV to retrieve information for biological conservation

Satellite remote sensing imagery is used for forestry, conservation and environmental applications, but insufficient spatial resolution, and, in particular, unavailability of images at the precise timing required for a given application, often prevent achieving a fully operational stage. Airborne remote sensing has the advantage of custom-tuned sensors, resolution and timing, but its price prevents using it as a routine technique for the mentioned fields. Some Unmanned Aerial Vehicles might provide a “third way” solution as low-cost techniques for acquiring remotely sensed information, under close control of the end-user, albeit at the expense of lower quality instrumentation and instability. This report evaluates a light remote sensing system based on a remotely-controlled mini-UAV (ATMOS-3) equipped with a color infra-red camera (VEGCAM-1) designed and operated by CATUAV. We conducted a testing mission over a Mediterranean landscape dominated by an evergreen woodland of Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) and (Holm) oak (Quercus ilex) in the Montseny National Park (Catalonia, NE Spain). We took advantage of state-of-the-art ortho-rectified digital aerial imagery (acquired by the Institut Cartogràfic de Catalunya over the area during the previous year) and used it as quality reference. In particular, we paid attention to: 1) Operationality of flight and image acquisition according to a previously defined plan; 2) Radiometric and geometric quality of the images; and 3) Operational use of the images in the context of applications. We conclude that the system has achieved an operational stage regarding flight activities, although with meteorological limits set by wind speed and turbulence. Appropriate landing areas can be sometimes limiting also, but the system is able to land on small and relatively rough terrains such as patches of grassland or short matorral, and we have operated the UAV as far as 7 km from the control unit. Radiometric quality is sufficient for interactive analysis, but probably insufficient for automated processing. A forthcoming camera is supposed to greatly improve radiometric quality and consistency. Conventional GPS positioning through time synchronization provides coarse orientation of the images, with no roll information.

Species distribution models for conservation-oriented studies in Switzerland : filling data and tools gaps

SUMMARYSpecies distribution models (SDMs) represent nowadays an essential tool in the research fields of ecology and conservation biology. By combining observations of species occurrence or abundance with information on the environmental characteristic of the observation sites, they can provide information on the ecology of species, predict their distributions across the landscape or extrapolate them to other spatial or time frames. The advent of SDMs, supported by geographic information systems (GIS), new developments in statistical models and constantly increasing computational capacities, has revolutionized the way ecologists can comprehend species distributions in their environment. SDMs have brought the tool that allows describing species realized niches across a multivariate environmental space and predict their spatial distribution. Predictions, in the form of probabilistic maps showing the potential distribution of the species, are an irreplaceable mean to inform every single unit of a territory about its biodiversity potential. SDMs and the corresponding spatial predictions can be used to plan conservation actions for particular species, to design field surveys, to assess the risks related to the spread of invasive species, to select reserve locations and design reserve networks, and ultimately, to forecast distributional changes according to scenarios of climate and/or land use change.By assessing the effect of several factors on model performance and on the accuracy of spatial predictions, this thesis aims at improving techniques and data available for distribution modelling and at providing the best possible information to conservation managers to support their decisions and action plans for the conservation of biodiversity in Switzerland and beyond. Several monitoring programs have been put in place from the national to the global scale, and different sources of data now exist and start to be available to researchers who want to model species distribution. However, because of the lack of means, data are often not gathered at an appropriate resolution, are sampled only over limited areas, are not spatially explicit or do not provide a sound biological information. A typical example of this is data on 'habitat' (sensu biota). Even though this is essential information for an effective conservation planning, it often has to be approximated from land use, the closest available information. Moreover, data are often not sampled according to an established sampling design, which can lead to biased samples and consequently to spurious modelling results. Understanding the sources of variability linked to the different phases of the modelling process and their importance is crucial in order to evaluate the final distribution maps that are to be used for conservation purposes.The research presented in this thesis was essentially conducted within the framework of the Landspot Project, a project supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation. The main goal of the project was to assess the possible contribution of pre-modelled 'habitat' units to model the distribution of animal species, in particular butterfly species, across Switzerland. While pursuing this goal, different aspects of data quality, sampling design and modelling process were addressed and improved, and implications for conservation discussed. The main 'habitat' units considered in this thesis are grassland and forest communities of natural and anthropogenic origin as defined in the typology of habitats for Switzerland. These communities are mainly defined at the phytosociological level of the alliance. For the time being, no comprehensive map of such communities is available at the national scale and at fine resolution. As a first step, it was therefore necessary to create distribution models and maps for these communities across Switzerland and thus to gather and collect the necessary data. In order to reach this first objective, several new developments were necessary such as the definition of expert models, the classification of the Swiss territory in environmental domains, the design of an environmentally stratified sampling of the target vegetation units across Switzerland, the development of a database integrating a decision-support system assisting in the classification of the relevés, and the downscaling of the land use/cover data from 100 m to 25 m resolution.The main contributions of this thesis to the discipline of species distribution modelling (SDM) are assembled in four main scientific papers. In the first, published in Journal of Riogeography different issues related to the modelling process itself are investigated. First is assessed the effect of five different stepwise selection methods on model performance, stability and parsimony, using data of the forest inventory of State of Vaud. In the same paper are also assessed: the effect of weighting absences to ensure a prevalence of 0.5 prior to model calibration; the effect of limiting absences beyond the environmental envelope defined by presences; four different methods for incorporating spatial autocorrelation; and finally, the effect of integrating predictor interactions. Results allowed to specifically enhance the GRASP tool (Generalized Regression Analysis and Spatial Predictions) that now incorporates new selection methods and the possibility of dealing with interactions among predictors as well as spatial autocorrelation. The contribution of different sources of remotely sensed information to species distribution models was also assessed. The second paper (to be submitted) explores the combined effects of sample size and data post-stratification on the accuracy of models using data on grassland distribution across Switzerland collected within the framework of the Landspot project and supplemented with other important vegetation databases. For the stratification of the data, different spatial frameworks were compared. In particular, environmental stratification by Swiss Environmental Domains was compared to geographical stratification either by biogeographic regions or political states (cantons). The third paper (to be submitted) assesses the contribution of pre- modelled vegetation communities to the modelling of fauna. It is a two-steps approach that combines the disciplines of community ecology and spatial ecology and integrates their corresponding concepts of habitat. First are modelled vegetation communities per se and then these 'habitat' units are used in order to model animal species habitat. A case study is presented with grassland communities and butterfly species. Different ways of integrating vegetation information in the models of butterfly distribution were also evaluated. Finally, a glimpse to climate change is given in the fourth paper, recently published in Ecological Modelling. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for analysing range shifts, namely a catalogue of the possible patterns of change in the distribution of a species along elevational or other environmental gradients and an improved quantitative methodology to identify and objectively describe these patterns. The methodology was developed using data from the Swiss national common breeding bird survey and the article presents results concerning the observed shifts in the elevational distribution of breeding birds in Switzerland.The overall objective of this thesis is to improve species distribution models as potential inputs for different conservation tools (e.g. red lists, ecological networks, risk assessment of the spread of invasive species, vulnerability assessment in the context of climate change). While no conservation issues or tools are directly tested in this thesis, the importance of the proposed improvements made in species distribution modelling is discussed in the context of the selection of reserve networks.RESUMELes modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) représentent aujourd'hui un outil essentiel dans les domaines de recherche de l'écologie et de la biologie de la conservation. En combinant les observations de la présence des espèces ou de leur abondance avec des informations sur les caractéristiques environnementales des sites d'observation, ces modèles peuvent fournir des informations sur l'écologie des espèces, prédire leur distribution à travers le paysage ou l'extrapoler dans l'espace et le temps. Le déploiement des SDMs, soutenu par les systèmes d'information géographique (SIG), les nouveaux développements dans les modèles statistiques, ainsi que la constante augmentation des capacités de calcul, a révolutionné la façon dont les écologistes peuvent comprendre la distribution des espèces dans leur environnement. Les SDMs ont apporté l'outil qui permet de décrire la niche réalisée des espèces dans un espace environnemental multivarié et prédire leur distribution spatiale. Les prédictions, sous forme de carte probabilistes montrant la distribution potentielle de l'espèce, sont un moyen irremplaçable d'informer chaque unité du territoire de sa biodiversité potentielle. Les SDMs et les prédictions spatiales correspondantes peuvent être utilisés pour planifier des mesures de conservation pour des espèces particulières, pour concevoir des plans d'échantillonnage, pour évaluer les risques liés à la propagation d'espèces envahissantes, pour choisir l'emplacement de réserves et les mettre en réseau, et finalement, pour prévoir les changements de répartition en fonction de scénarios de changement climatique et/ou d'utilisation du sol. En évaluant l'effet de plusieurs facteurs sur la performance des modèles et sur la précision des prédictions spatiales, cette thèse vise à améliorer les techniques et les données disponibles pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces et à fournir la meilleure information possible aux gestionnaires pour appuyer leurs décisions et leurs plans d'action pour la conservation de la biodiversité en Suisse et au-delà. Plusieurs programmes de surveillance ont été mis en place de l'échelle nationale à l'échelle globale, et différentes sources de données sont désormais disponibles pour les chercheurs qui veulent modéliser la distribution des espèces. Toutefois, en raison du manque de moyens, les données sont souvent collectées à une résolution inappropriée, sont échantillonnées sur des zones limitées, ne sont pas spatialement explicites ou ne fournissent pas une information écologique suffisante. Un exemple typique est fourni par les données sur 'l'habitat' (sensu biota). Même s'il s'agit d'une information essentielle pour des mesures de conservation efficaces, elle est souvent approximée par l'utilisation du sol, l'information qui s'en approche le plus. En outre, les données ne sont souvent pas échantillonnées selon un plan d'échantillonnage établi, ce qui biaise les échantillons et par conséquent les résultats de la modélisation. Comprendre les sources de variabilité liées aux différentes phases du processus de modélisation s'avère crucial afin d'évaluer l'utilisation des cartes de distribution prédites à des fins de conservation.La recherche présentée dans cette thèse a été essentiellement menée dans le cadre du projet Landspot, un projet soutenu par le Fond National Suisse pour la Recherche. L'objectif principal de ce projet était d'évaluer la contribution d'unités 'd'habitat' pré-modélisées pour modéliser la répartition des espèces animales, notamment de papillons, à travers la Suisse. Tout en poursuivant cet objectif, différents aspects touchant à la qualité des données, au plan d'échantillonnage et au processus de modélisation sont abordés et améliorés, et leurs implications pour la conservation des espèces discutées. Les principaux 'habitats' considérés dans cette thèse sont des communautés de prairie et de forêt d'origine naturelle et anthropique telles que définies dans la typologie des habitats de Suisse. Ces communautés sont principalement définies au niveau phytosociologique de l'alliance. Pour l'instant aucune carte de la distribution de ces communautés n'est disponible à l'échelle nationale et à résolution fine. Dans un premier temps, il a donc été nécessaire de créer des modèles de distribution de ces communautés à travers la Suisse et par conséquent de recueillir les données nécessaires. Afin d'atteindre ce premier objectif, plusieurs nouveaux développements ont été nécessaires, tels que la définition de modèles experts, la classification du territoire suisse en domaines environnementaux, la conception d'un échantillonnage environnementalement stratifié des unités de végétation cibles dans toute la Suisse, la création d'une base de données intégrant un système d'aide à la décision pour la classification des relevés, et le « downscaling » des données de couverture du sol de 100 m à 25 m de résolution. Les principales contributions de cette thèse à la discipline de la modélisation de la distribution d'espèces (SDM) sont rassemblées dans quatre articles scientifiques. Dans le premier article, publié dans le Journal of Biogeography, différentes questions liées au processus de modélisation sont étudiées en utilisant les données de l'inventaire forestier de l'Etat de Vaud. Tout d'abord sont évalués les effets de cinq méthodes de sélection pas-à-pas sur la performance, la stabilité et la parcimonie des modèles. Dans le même article sont également évalués: l'effet de la pondération des absences afin d'assurer une prévalence de 0.5 lors de la calibration du modèle; l'effet de limiter les absences au-delà de l'enveloppe définie par les présences; quatre méthodes différentes pour l'intégration de l'autocorrélation spatiale; et enfin, l'effet de l'intégration d'interactions entre facteurs. Les résultats présentés dans cet article ont permis d'améliorer l'outil GRASP qui intègre désonnais de nouvelles méthodes de sélection et la possibilité de traiter les interactions entre variables explicatives, ainsi que l'autocorrélation spatiale. La contribution de différentes sources de données issues de la télédétection a également été évaluée. Le deuxième article (en voie de soumission) explore les effets combinés de la taille de l'échantillon et de la post-stratification sur le la précision des modèles. Les données utilisées ici sont celles concernant la répartition des prairies de Suisse recueillies dans le cadre du projet Landspot et complétées par d'autres sources. Pour la stratification des données, différents cadres spatiaux ont été comparés. En particulier, la stratification environnementale par les domaines environnementaux de Suisse a été comparée à la stratification géographique par les régions biogéographiques ou par les cantons. Le troisième article (en voie de soumission) évalue la contribution de communautés végétales pré-modélisées à la modélisation de la faune. C'est une approche en deux étapes qui combine les disciplines de l'écologie des communautés et de l'écologie spatiale en intégrant leurs concepts de 'habitat' respectifs. Les communautés végétales sont modélisées d'abord, puis ces unités de 'habitat' sont utilisées pour modéliser les espèces animales. Une étude de cas est présentée avec des communautés prairiales et des espèces de papillons. Différentes façons d'intégrer l'information sur la végétation dans les modèles de répartition des papillons sont évaluées. Enfin, un clin d'oeil aux changements climatiques dans le dernier article, publié dans Ecological Modelling. Cet article propose un cadre conceptuel pour l'analyse des changements dans la distribution des espèces qui comprend notamment un catalogue des différentes formes possibles de changement le long d'un gradient d'élévation ou autre gradient environnemental, et une méthode quantitative améliorée pour identifier et décrire ces déplacements. Cette méthodologie a été développée en utilisant des données issues du monitoring des oiseaux nicheurs répandus et l'article présente les résultats concernant les déplacements observés dans la distribution altitudinale des oiseaux nicheurs en Suisse.L'objectif général de cette thèse est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution des espèces en tant que source d'information possible pour les différents outils de conservation (par exemple, listes rouges, réseaux écologiques, évaluation des risques de propagation d'espèces envahissantes, évaluation de la vulnérabilité des espèces dans le contexte de changement climatique). Bien que ces questions de conservation ne soient pas directement testées dans cette thèse, l'importance des améliorations proposées pour la modélisation de la distribution des espèces est discutée à la fin de ce travail dans le contexte de la sélection de réseaux de réserves.

History matters: relating paths and rates of landscape change to butterfly species decline

Western European landscapes have drastically changed since the 1950s, with agricultural intensifications and the spread of urban settlements considered the most important drivers of this land-use/land-cover change. Losses of habitat for fauna and flora have been a direct consequence of this development. In the present study, we relate butterfly occurrence to land-use/land-cover changes over five decades between 1951 and 2000. The study area covers the entire Swiss territory. The 10 explanatory variables originate from agricultural statistics and censuses. Both state as well as rate was used as explanatory variables. Species distribution data were obtained from natural history collections. We selected eight butterfly species: four species occur on wetlands and four occur on dry grasslands. We used cluster analysis to track land-use/land-cover changes and to group communes based on similar trajectories of change. Generalized linear models were applied to identify factors that were significantly correlated with the persistence or disappearance of butterfly species. Results showed that decreasing agricultural areas and densities of farms with more than 10 ha of cultivated land are significantly related with wetland species decline, and increasing densities of livestock seem to have favored disappearance of dry grassland species. Moreover, we show that species declines are not only dependent on land-use/land-cover states but also on the rates of change; that is, the higher the transformation rate from small to large farms, the higher the loss of dry grassland species. We suggest that more attention should be paid to the rates of landscape change as feasible drivers of species change and derive some management suggestions.

Climate-based empirical models show biased predictions of butterfly communities along environmental gradients

A better understanding of the factors that mould ecological community structure is required to accurately predict community composition and to anticipate threats to ecosystems due to global changes. We tested how well stacked climate-based species distribution models (S-SDMs) could predict butterfly communities in a mountain region. It has been suggested that climate is the main force driving butterfly distribution and community structure in mountain environments, and that, as a consequence, climate-based S-SDMs should yield unbiased predictions. In contrast to this expectation, at lower altitudes, climate-based S-SDMs overpredicted butterfly species richness at sites with low plant species richness and underpredicted species richness at sites with high plant species richness. According to two indices of composition accuracy, the Sorensen index and a matching coefficient considering both absences and presences, S-SDMs were more accurate in plant-rich grasslands. Butterflies display strong and often specialised trophic interactions with plants. At lower altitudes, where land use is more intense, considering climate alone without accounting for land use influences on grassland plant richness leads to erroneous predictions of butterfly presences and absences. In contrast, at higher altitudes, where climate is the main force filtering communities, there were fewer differences between observed and predicted butterfly richness. At high altitudes, even if stochastic processes decrease the accuracy of predictions of presence, climate-based S-SDMs are able to better filter out butterfly species that are unable to cope with severe climatic conditions, providing more accurate predictions of absences. Our results suggest that predictions should account for plants in disturbed habitats at lower altitudes but that stochastic processes and heterogeneity at high altitudes may limit prediction success of climate-based S-SDMs.

Seasonality and relative abundance of Tabanidae (Diptera) captured on horses in the Pantanal, Brazil

Once a month, from June 1992 to May 1993, collections of tabanids on horse were conducted in the Nhecolândia, Pantanal State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Tabanid catches using hand nets were conducted from sunrise to sunset at grassland and cerradão (dense savanna) habitats. A total of 3,442 tabanids from 21 species,12 genera, and 3 subfamilies were collected. Although species abundance varied seasonally depending on habitat, no habitat specificity was observed for the most abundant species. In the grassland, 1,625 (47.2%) tabanids belonging to 19 species were collected, while 1,817 (52.8%) tabanids from 17 species were caught in the cerradão. The number of tabanid species varied from 7 during winter (July/August) to 15 in the spring (October). Tabanus importunus (56%) was the most abundant species, followed by T. occidentalis (8.2%), and T. claripennis (8.1%). The tabanid peak, in October, coincided with the beginning of the rainy season. The population peak of most species, including those with higher vector potential, suggests that the rainy season can be considered as the period of potentially higher risk of mechanical transmission of pathogens by tabanids to horses in the region.

Speech by Mr Micheál Martin TD at Launch of Pre-Registration Nursing Degree Programme

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. I am very pleased that you were all able to accept my invitation to join me here today on this landmark occasion for nursing education. It is fitting that all of the key stakeholders from the health and education sectors should be so well represented at the launch of an historic new development. Rapid and unpredictable change throughout society has been the hallmark of the twenty-first century, and healthcare is no exception. Regardless of what change occurs, no one doubts that nursing is intrinsic to the health of this nation. However, significant changes in nurse education are now needed if the profession is to deliver on its social mandate to promote people´s health by providing excellent and sensitive care. As science, technology and the demands of the public for sophisticated and responsive health care become increasingly complex, it is essential that the foundation of nursing education is redesigned. Pre-registration nursing education has already undergone radical change over the past eight years, during which time it has moved from an apprenticeship model of education and training to a diploma based programme firmly rooted in higher education. The Secretary General of my Department, Michael Kelly, played a leading role in bringing about this transformation, which has greatly enhanced the way students are prepared for entry to the nursing profession. The benefits of the revised model of education are clearly evident from the quality of the nurses graduating from the diploma programme. The Commission on Nursing examined the whole area of nursing education, and set out a very convincing case for educating nursing students to degree level. It argued that nurses of the future would be required to possess increased flexibility and the ability to work autonomously. A degree programme would provide nurses with a theoretical underpinning that would enable them to develop their clinical skills to a greater extent and to respond to future challenges in health care, for the benefit of patients and clients of the health services. The Commission has provided a solid framework for the professional development of nurses and midwives, including a process that is already underway for the creation of clinical nurse specialist and advanced nurse practitioner posts. This process will facilitate the transfer of skills across divisions of nursing. In this scenario, it is clearly desirable that the future benchmark qualification for registration as a nurse should be a degree in nursing studies. A Nursing Education Forum was established in early 1999 to prepare a strategic framework for the implementation of a nursing degree programme. When launching the Forum´s report last January, I indicated that the Government had agreed in principle to the introduction of the proposed degree programme next year. At the time two substantial outstanding issues had yet to be resolved, namely the basis on which nurse teachers would transfer from the health sector to the education sector and the amount of capital and revenue funding required to operate the degree programme. My Department has brokered agreements between the Nursing Alliance and the Higher Education Institutions for the assimilation of nurse teachers as lecturers into their affiliated institutions. The terms of these agreements have been accepted by all four nursing unions following a ballot of their nurse teacher members. I would like to pay particular tribute to all nurse teachers who have contributed to shaping the position, relevance and visibility of nursing through leadership, which embodies scholarship and excellence in the profession of nursing itself. In response to a recommendation of the Nursing Education Forum, I established an Inter-Departmental Steering Committee, chaired by Bernard Carey of my Department, to consider all the funding and policy issues. This Steering Committee includes representatives of the Department of Finance and the Department of Education and Science as well as the Higher Education Authority. The Steering Committee has been engaged in intensive negotiations with representatives of the Conference of Heads of Irish Universities and the Institutes of Technology in relation to their capital and revenue funding requirements. These negotiations were successfully concluded within the past few weeks. The satisfactory resolution of the industrial relations and funding issues cleared the way for me to go to the Government with concrete proposals for the implementation of degree level education for nursing students. I am delighted to announce here today that the Government has approved all of my proposals, and that a four-year undergraduate pre-registration nursing degree programme will be implemented on a nation-wide basis at the start of the next academic year, 2002/2003. The Government has approved the provision of capital funding totalling £176 million pounds for a major building and equipment programme to facilitate the full integration of nursing students into the higher education sector. This programme is due to be completed by September 2004, and will ensure that nursing students are accommodated in purpose built schools of nursing studies with state of the art clinical skills and human science laboratories at thirteen higher education sites throughout the country. The Government has also agreed to make available the substantial additional revenue funding required to support the nursing degree programme. By 2006, the full year cost of operating the programme will rise to some £43 million pounds. The scale of this investment in pre-registration nursing education is enormous by any yardstick. It demonstrates the firm commitment of myself and my Government colleagues to the full implementation of the recommendations of the Commission on Nursing, of which the introduction of pre-registration degree level education is arguably the most important. This historic decision, and it is truly historic, will finally put the education of nurses on a par with the education of other health care professionals. The nursing profession has long been striving for parity, and my own involvement in the achievement of it is a matter of deep personal satisfaction to me. I am also pleased to announce that the Government has approved my plans for increasing the number of nursing training places to coincide with the implementation of the degree programme next year. Ninety-three additional places in mental handicap and psychiatric nursing will be created at Athlone, Letterkenny, Tralee and Waterford Institutes of Technology. This will yield 392 extra places over the four years of the degree programme. A total of 1,640 places annually on the new degree programme will thus be available. This is an all-time record, and maintaining the annual student intake at this level for the foreseeable future is a key element of my overall strategy for ensuring that we produce sufficient “home-grown” nurses for our health services. I am aware that the Nursing Alliance were anxious that some funding would be provided for the further academic career development of nurse teachers who transfer to one of the six Universities that will be involved in the delivery of the degree programme. I am happy to confirm that up to £300,000 in total per year will be available for this purpose over the first four years of the degree programme. In line with a recommendation of the Commission on Nursing, my Department will have responsibility for the administration of the nursing degree budget until the programme has been bedded down in the higher education sector. A primary concern will be to ensure that the substantial capital and revenue funding involved is ring-fenced for nursing studies. It is intended that responsibility for the budget will be transferred to the Department of Education and Science after the first cohort of nursing degree students have graduated in 2006. In the context of today´s launch, it is relevant to refer to a special initiative that I introduced last year to assist registered nurses wishing to undertake part-time nursing degree courses. Under this initiative, nurses are entitled to have their course fees paid by their employers in return for a commitment to continue working in the public health service for a period following completion of the course. This initiative has proved extremely popular with large numbers of nurses availing of it. I want to confirm here today that the free fees initiative will continue in operation until 2005, at a total cost of at least £15 million pounds. I am giving this commitment in order to assure this year´s intake of nursing students to the final diploma programmes that fee support for a part-time nursing degree course will be available to them when they graduate in three years time. The focus of today´s celebration is rightly on the landmark Government decision to implement the nursing degree programme next year. As Minister for Health and Children, and as a former Minister for Education, I also have a particular interest in the educational opportunities available to other health service workers to upgrade their skills. I am pleased to announce that the Government has approved my proposals for the introduction of a sponsorship scheme for suitable, experienced health care assistants who wish to become nurses. This new scheme will commence next year and will be administered by the health boards. Successful applicants will be allowed to retain their existing salaries throughout the four years of the degree programme in return for a commitment to work as nurses for their health service employer for a period of five years following registration. Up to forty sponsorships will be available annually. The new scheme will enable suitable applicants to undertake nursing education and training without suffering financial hardship. The greatest advantage of the scheme will be the retention by the public health service of staff who are supported under it, since they will have had practical experience of working in the service and their own personal commitment to upgrading their skills will be informed by that experience. I am confident that the sponsorship scheme will be warmly welcomed by health service unions representing care assistants as providing an exciting new career development path for their members. Education and health are now the two pillars upon which the profession of nursing rests. We must continue to build bridges, even tunnels where needed to strengthen this partnership. We must all understand partnerships donâ?Tt just happen they are designed and must be worked at. The changes outlined here today are powerful incentives for those in healthcare agencies, academic institutions and regulatory bodies to design revolutionary programmes capable of shaping a critical mass of excellent practitioners. You have an opportunity, greater perhaps than has been granted to any other generation in history to make certain those changes are for the good. Ultimately changes that will make the country a healthier and more equitable place to live. The challenge relates to building a seamless preparatory programme which equally respects both education and practise as an indivisible duo whilst ensuring that high tech does not replace the human touch. This is a special day in the history of the development of the Irish nursing profession, and I would like to thank everybody for their contribution. I want to express my particular appreciation of two people who by this stage are well known to all of you – Bernard Carey of my Department and Siobhán O´Halloran of the National Implementation Committee. Bernard and Siobhán have devoted considerable time and energy to the project on my behalf over the past fourteen months or so. That we are here today celebrating the launch of degree level education is due in no small part to their successful execution of the mandate that I gave them. We live in a rapidly changing world, one in which nursing can no longer rely on systems of the past to guide it through the new millennium. In terms of contemporary healthcare, nursing is no longer just a reciprocal kindness but rather a highly complex set of professional behaviours, which require serious educational investment. Pre-registration nurse education will always need development and redesign to ensure our health care system meets the demands of modern society. Nothing is finite. Today more than ever the health system is dependent on the resourcefulness of nursing. I have no doubt that the new educational landscape painted will ensure that nurses of the future will be increasingly innovative, independent and in demand. The unmistakable message from my Department is that nursing really matters. Thank you.