The closing door of climate targets

Robust evidence from a range of climate–carbon cycle models shows that the maximum warming relative to pre-industrial times caused by the emissions of carbon dioxide is nearly proportional to the total amount of emitted anthropogenic carbon (1, 2). This proportionality is a reasonable approximation for simulations covering many emissions scenarios for the time frame 1750 to 2500 (1). This linear relationship is remarkable given the different complexities of the models and the wide range of emissions scenarios considered. It has direct implications for the possibility of achieving internationally agreed climate targets such as those mentioned in the Copenhagen Accord and the Cancun Agreements (3, 4). Here I explain some of the implications of the linear relationship between peak warming and total cumulative carbon emissions.

The door of the tomb is open: Participatory action research to assess the impact of strengthened community capacity on maternal health care in rural Mali

This participatory action-research project addressed the hypothesis that strengthened community and women's capacity for self-development will lead to action to address maternal health problems and the prevention of maternal morbidity and mortality in Mali. Research objectives were: (1) to undertake a comparative cross-sectional study of the association of community capacity with improved maternal health in rural areas of Sanando, Mali, where capacity building interventions have taken place in some villages but not in others. (2) to describe women's maternal health status, access to and use of maternal health services given their residence in program or comparison communities.^ The participatory action research project was an integrated qualitative and quantitative study using participatory rural appraisal exercises, semi-structured group interviews and a cross-sectional survey.^ Factors related to community capacity for self-development were identified: community harmony; an understanding of the benefits of self-development; dynamic leadership; and a structure to implement collective activities.^ A distinct difference between the program and comparison villages was the commitment to train and support traditional birth attendants (TBAs). The TBAs in the program villages work in the context of the wider, integrated self-development program and, 10 years after their initial training, the TBAs continue to practice.^ Many women experience labor and childbirth alone or are attended by an untrained relative in both program and comparison villages. Nevertheless a significant change is apparent, with more women in program villages than in comparison villages being assisted by the TBAs. The delivery practices of the TBAs reveal the positive impact of their training in the "three cleans" (clean hands of the assistant, clean delivery surface and clean cord-cutting). The findings of this study indicate a significant level of unmet need for child spacing methods in all villages.^ The training and support of TBAs in the program villages yielded significant improvements in their delivery practices, and resulting outcomes for women and infants. However, potential exists for further community action. Capacities for self-development have not yet been directed toward an action plan encompassing other Safe Motherhood interventions, including access to family planning services and emergency obstetric care services. ^

A patient-specific study of type-B aortic dissection: evaluation of true-false lumen blood exchange

BACKGROUND Aortic dissection is a severe pathological condition in which blood penetrates between layers of the aortic wall and creates a duplicate channel - the false lumen. This considerable change on the aortic morphology alters hemodynamic features dramatically and, in the case of rupture, induces markedly high rates of morbidity and mortality. METHODS In this study, we establish a patient-specific computational model and simulate the pulsatile blood flow within the dissected aorta. The k-ω SST turbulence model is employed to represent the flow and finite volume method is applied for numerical solutions. Our emphasis is on flow exchange between true and false lumen during the cardiac cycle and on quantifying the flow across specific passages. Loading distributions including pressure and wall shear stress have also been investigated and results of direct simulations are compared with solutions employing appropriate turbulence models. RESULTS Our results indicate that (i) high velocities occur at the periphery of the entries; (ii) for the case studied, approximately 40% of the blood flow passes the false lumen during a heartbeat cycle; (iii) higher pressures are found at the outer wall of the dissection, which may induce further dilation of the pseudo-lumen; (iv) highest wall shear stresses occur around the entries, perhaps indicating the vulnerability of this region to further splitting; and (v) laminar simulations with adequately fine mesh resolutions, especially refined near the walls, can capture similar flow patterns to the (coarser mesh) turbulent results, although the absolute magnitudes computed are in general smaller. CONCLUSIONS The patient-specific model of aortic dissection provides detailed flow information of blood transport within the true and false lumen and quantifies the loading distributions over the aorta and dissection walls. This contributes to evaluating potential thrombotic behavior in the false lumen and is pivotal in guiding endovascular intervention. Moreover, as a computational study, mesh requirements to successfully evaluate the hemodynamic parameters have been proposed.

Relationship between onset-to-door time and door-to-thrombolysis time: a pooled analysis of 10 dedicated stroke centers

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Inverse relationship between onset-to-door time (ODT) and door-to-needle time (DNT) in stroke thrombolysis was reported from various registries. We analyzed this relationship and other determinants of DNT in dedicated stroke centers. METHODS Prospectively collected data of consecutive ischemic stroke patients from 10 centers who received IV thrombolysis within 4.5 hours from symptom onset were merged (n=7106). DNT was analyzed as a function of demographic and prehospital variables using regression analyses, and change over time was considered. RESULTS In 6348 eligible patients with known treatment delays, median DNT was 42 minutes and kept decreasing steeply every year (P<0.001). Median DNT of 55 minutes was observed in patients with ODT ≤30 minutes, whereas it declined for patients presenting within the last 30 minutes of the 3-hour time window (median, 33 minutes) and of the 4.5-hour time window (20 minutes). For ODT within the first 30 minutes of the extended time window (181-210 minutes), DNT increased to 42 minutes. DNT was stable for ODT for 30 to 150 minutes (40-45 minutes). We found a weak inverse overall correlation between ODT and DNT (R(2)=-0.12; P<0.001), but it was strong in patients treated between 3 and 4.5 hours (R(2)=-0.75; P<0.001). ODT was independently inversely associated with DNT (P<0.001) in regression analysis. Octogenarians and women tended to have longer DNT. CONCLUSIONS DNT was decreasing steeply over the last years in dedicated stroke centers; however, significant oscillations of in-hospital treatment delays occurred at both ends of the time window. This suggests that further improvements can be achieved, particularly in the elderly.

Eenige blikken in de negentiende aflevering van het "Beredeneerd Hebr. - en Chald. - Nederl. - Woordenboek bewerkt naar de Grammaticale en Lexicale Werken von Fürst, Landau, Gesenius, Vater en anderen, door I. Waterman"

Philip Elte

Catalogus der tentoonstelling in het Portugeesch Israelietisch Seminarium "Ets Haim" te Amsterdam : ter herinnering aan het driehonderd-jarig jubileum van het eerste door Menassah Ben Israel te Amsterdam gedrukte Hebreeuuwsche boek

samengesteld da J. S. Da Silva Rosa

False normal Lung Clearance Index in infants with cystic fibrosis due to software algorithms.

BACKGROUND Lung clearance index (LCI), a marker of ventilation inhomogeneity, is elevated early in children with cystic fibrosis (CF). However, in infants with CF, LCI values are found to be normal, although structural lung abnormalities are often detectable. We hypothesized that this discrepancy is due to inadequate algorithms of the available software package. AIM Our aim was to challenge the validity of these software algorithms. METHODS We compared multiple breath washout (MBW) results of current software algorithms (automatic modus) to refined algorithms (manual modus) in 17 asymptomatic infants with CF, and 24 matched healthy term-born infants. The main difference between these two analysis methods lies in the calculation of the molar mass differences that the system uses to define the completion of the measurement. RESULTS In infants with CF the refined manual modus revealed clearly elevated LCI above 9 in 8 out of 35 measurements (23%), all showing LCI values below 8.3 using the automatic modus (paired t-test comparing the means, P < 0.001). Healthy infants showed normal LCI values using both analysis methods (n = 47, paired t-test, P = 0.79). The most relevant reason for false normal LCI values in infants with CF using the automatic modus was the incorrect recognition of the end-of-test too early during the washout. CONCLUSION We recommend the use of the manual modus for the analysis of MBW outcomes in infants in order to obtain more accurate results. This will allow appropriate use of infant lung function results for clinical and scientific purposes.

Schriftliche Prüfungen: Vorteile von Multiple True-False Fragen gegenüber Typ-A Fragen

Fragestellung/Einleitung: Prüfungen sind essentieller Bestandteil in der ärztlichen Ausbildung. Sie liefern wertvolle Informationen über den Entwicklungsprozess der Studierenden und wirken lernbegleitend und lernmodulierend [1], [2]. Bei schriftlichen Prüfungen dominieren derzeit Multiple Choice Fragen, die in verschiedenen Typen verwendet werden. Zumeist werden Typ-A Fragen genutzt, bei denen genau eine Antwort richtig ist. Multiple True-False (MTF) Fragen hingegen lassen mehrere richtige Antworten zu: es muss für jede Antwortmöglichkeit entschieden werden, ob diese richtig oder falsch ist. Durch die Mehrfachantwort scheinen MTF Fragen bestimmte klinische Sachverhalte besser widerspiegeln zu können. Auch bezüglich Reliabilität und dem Informationsgewinn pro Testzeit scheinen MTF Fragen den Typ-A Fragen überlegen zu sein [3]. Dennoch werden MTF Fragen bislang selten genutzt und es gibt wenig Literatur zu diesem Fragenformat. In dieser Studie soll untersucht werden, inwiefern die Verwendung von MTF Fragen die Nutzbarkeit (Utility) nach van der Vleuten (Reliabilität, Validität, Kostenaufwand, Effekt auf den Lernprozess und Akzeptanz der Teilnehmer) [4] schriftlicher Prüfungen erhöhen kann. Um die Testreliabilität zu steigern, sowie den Kostenaufwand für Prüfungen zu senken, möchten wir das optimale Bewertungssystem (Scoring) für MTF Fragen ermitteln. Methoden: Wir analysieren die Daten summativer Prüfungen der Medizinischen Fakultät der Universität Bern. Unsere Daten beinhalten Prüfungen vom ersten bis zum sechsten Studienjahr, sowie eine Facharztprüfung. Alle Prüfungen umfassen sowohl MTF als auch Typ-A Fragen. Für diese Prüfungen vergleichen wir die Viertel-, Halb- und Ganzpunktbewertung für MTF Fragen. Bei der Viertelpunktbewertung bekommen Kandidaten für jede richtige Teilantwort ¼ Punkt. Bei der Halbpunktbewertung wird ½ Punkt vergeben, wenn mehr als die Hälfte der Antwortmöglichkeiten richtig ist, einen ganzen Punkt erhalten die Kandidaten wenn alle Antworten richtig beantwortet wurden. Bei der Ganzpunktbewertung erhalten Kandidaten lediglich einen Punkt wenn die komplette Frage richtig beantwortet wurde. Diese unterschiedlichen Bewertungsschemata werden hinsichtlich Fragencharakteristika wie Trennschärfe und Schwierigkeit sowie hinsichtlich Testcharakteristika wie der Reliabilität einander gegenübergestellt. Die Ergebnisse werden ausserdem mit denen für Typ A Fragen verglichen. Ergebnisse: Vorläufige Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass eine Halbpunktbewertung optimal zu sein scheint. Eine Halbpunktbewertung führt zu mittleren Item-Schwierigkeiten und daraus resultierend zu hohen Trennschärfen. Dies trägt zu einer hohen Testreliabilität bei. Diskussion/Schlussfolgerung: MTF Fragen scheinen in Verbindung mit einem optimalen Bewertungssystem, zu höheren Testreliabilitäten im Vergleich zu Typ A Fragen zu führen. In Abhängigkeit des zu prüfenden Inhalts könnten MTF Fragen einen wertvolle Ergänzung zu Typ-A Fragen darstellen. Durch die geeignete Kombination von MTF und Typ A Fragen könnte die Nutzbarkeit (Utility) schriftlicher Prüfungen verbessert werden.

Do multiple true-false items beat the commonly used one-best-answers questions regarding to the Ottawa Criteria for Good Assessment? Results of a literature review

Background: Multiple True-False-Items (MTF-Items) might offer some advantages compared to one-best-answer-questions (TypeA) as they allow more than one correct answer and may better represent clinical decisions. However, in medical education assessment MTF-Items are seldom used. Summary of Work: With this literature review existing findings on MTF-items and on TypeA were compared along the Ottawa Criteria for Good Assessment, i.e. (1) reproducibility, (2) feasibility, (3) validity, (4) acceptance, (5) educational effect, (6) catalytic effects, and (7) equivalence. We conducted a literature research on ERIC and Google Scholar including papers from the years 1935 to 2014. We used the search terms “multiple true-false”, “true-false”, “true/false”, and “Kprim” combined with “exam”, “test”, and “assessment”. Summary of Results: We included 29 out of 33 studies. Four of them were carried out in the medical field Compared to TypeA, MTF-Items are associated with (1) higher reproducibility (2) lower feasibility (3) similar validity (4) higher acceptance (5) higher educational effect (6) no studies on catalytic effects or (7) equivalence. Discussion and Conclusions: While studies show overall good characteristics of MTF items according to the Ottawa criteria, this type of question seems to be rather seldom used. One reason might be the reported lower feasibility. Overall the literature base is still weak. Furthermore, only 14 % of literature is from the medical domain. Further studies to better understand the characteristics of MTF-Items in the medical domain are warranted. Take-home messages: Overall the literature base is weak and therefore further studies are needed. Existing studies show that: MTF-Items show higher reliability, acceptance and educational effect; MTF-Items are more difficult to produce

Search, Seizure and (False?) Arrest: An Analysis of Fourth Amendment Remedies when Police can Plant Evidence

The Fourth Amendment prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures in criminal investigations. The Supreme Court has interpreted this to require that police obtain a warrant prior to search and that illegally seized evidence be excluded from trial. A consensus has developed in the law and economics literature that tort liability for police officers is a superior means of deterring unreasonable searches. We argue that this conclusion depends on the assumption of truth-seeking police, and develop a game-theoretic model to compare the two remedies when some police officers (the bad type) are willing to plant evidence in order to obtain convictions, even though other police (the good type) are not (where this type is private information). We characterize the perfect Bayesian equilibria of the asymmetric-information game between the police and a court that seeks to minimize error costs in deciding whether to convict or acquit suspects. In this framework, we show that the exclusionary rule with a warrant requirement leads to superior outcomes (relative to tort liability) in terms of truth-finding function of courts, because the warrant requirement can reduce the scope for bad types of police to plant evidence

Droeve Traenen, Wtgestort door de zwaer-verfolgde Duytsche Maegd : Over de beklagelijcke, schaderijcke ende ontijdige Dood des onvergelijckelijcken ... Coningh von Svveden Gustavus Adolphus ... ; Den 16 November, 1632

Klagelied der "deutschen Magd" auf den Tod Gustav Adolfs II.

Daniel Veth's reizen in Angola, voorafgegaan door eene schets van zin leven

bewerkt door P. J. Veth en Joh. F. Snelleman