Climatology of Vb cyclones, physical mechanisms and their impact on extreme precipitation over Central Europe

Cyclones, which develop over the western Mediterranean and move northeastward are a major source of extreme weather and known to be responsible for heavy precipitation over the northern side of the Alpine range and Central Europe. As the relevant processes triggering these so-called Vb events and their impact on extreme precipitation are not yet fully understood, this study focuses on gaining insight into the dynamics of past events. For this, a cyclone detection and tracking tool is applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2013) to identify prominent Vb situations. Precipitation in the ERA-Interim and the E-OBS data sets is used to evaluate case-to-case precipitation amounts and to assess consistency between the two data sets. Both data sets exhibit high variability in precipitation amounts among different Vb events. While only 23 % of all Vb events are associated with extreme precipitation, around 15 % of all extreme precipitation days (99 percentile) over the northern Alpine region and Central Europe are induced by Vb events, although Vb cyclones are rare events (2.3 per year). To obtain a better understanding of the variability within Vb events, the analysis of the 10 heaviest and lowest precipitation Vb events reveals noticeable differences in the state of the atmosphere. These differences are most pronounced in the geopotential height and potential vorticity field, indicating a much stronger cyclone for heavy precipitation events. The related differences in wind direction are responsible for the moisture transport around the Alps and the orographical lifting along the northern slopes of the Alps. These effects are the main reasons for a disastrous outcome of Vb events, and consequently are absent in the Vb events associated with low precipitation. Hence, our results point out that heavy precipitation related to Vb events is mainly related to large-scale dynamics rather than to thermodynamic processes.

Economic analysis of soil conservation: Case studies from the highlands of Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Soil degradation is widespread in the Ethiopian Highlands. Its negative impacts on soil productivity contribute to the extreme poverty of the rural population. Soil conservation is propagated as a means of reducing soil erosion, however, it is a costly investment for small-scale farming households. The present study is an attempt to show whether or not selected mechanical Soil and Water Conservation (SWC) technologies are profitable from a farmer’s point of view. A financial Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is carried out to assess whether or not the considered SWC technologies are profitable from a farmer’s point of view. The CBA is supplemented by an evaluation of aspects from the economic and institutional environment. Whether or not soil conservation is profitable from a farmer’s point of view depends on a broad range of factors from the ecological, economic, political, institutional and socio-cultural sphere and also depends on the technology and the prevailing farming system. Because these factors are closely interlinked, it is often not sufficient to change or influence one to make SWC profitable. Several recommendations are formulated with regard to improving the profitability of SWC investments from a farmer’s point of view. Because the reasons for unsustainable resource use are manifold and highly interlinked, only a multi-stakeholder, multi-level and multi-objective approach is likely to offer solutions that address the underlying problems adequately.

Plant regeneration directs changes in grassland composition after extreme drought: a 13-year study in southern Switzerland

1. The cover of plant species was recorded annually from 1988 to 2000 in nine spatially replicated plots in a species-rich, semi-natural meadow at Negrentino (southern Alps). This period showed large climatic variation and included the centennial maximum and minimum frequency of days with ≥ 10 mm of rain. 2. Changes in species composition were compared between three 4-year intervals characterized by increasingly dry weather (1988–91), a preceding extreme drought (1992–95), and increasingly wet weather (1997–2000). Redundancy analysis and anova with repeated spatial replicates were used to find trends in vegetation data across time. 3. Recruitment capacity, the potential for fast clonal growth and seasonal expansion rate were determined for abundant taxa and tested in general linear models (GLM) as predictors for rates of change in relative cover of species across the climatically defined 4-year intervals. 4. Relative cover of the major growth forms present, graminoids and forbs, changed more in the period following extreme drought than at other times. Recruitment capacity was the only predictor of species’ rates of change. 5. Following perturbation, re-colonization was the primary driver of vegetation dynamics. The dominant grasses, which lacked high recruitment from seed, therefore decreased in relative abundance. This effect persisted until the end of the study and may represent a lasting response to an extreme climatic event.

Increased endothelial microparticles and oxidative stress at extreme altitude.

PURPOSE Hypoxia and oxidative stress affect endothelial function. Endothelial microparticles (MP) are established measures of endothelial dysfunction and influence vascular reactivity. To evaluate the effects of hypoxia and antioxidant supplementation on endothelial MP profiles, a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, during a high altitude expedition was performed. METHODS 29 participants were randomly assigned to a treatment group (n = 14), receiving vitamin E, C, A, and N-acetylcysteine daily, and a control group (n = 15), receiving placebo. Blood samples were obtained at 490 m (baseline), 3530, 4590, and 6210 m. A sensitive tandem mass spectrometry method was used to measure 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α and hydroxyoctadecadienoic acids as markers of oxidative stress. Assessment of MP profiles including endothelial activation markers (CD62+MP and CD144+MP) and cell apoptosis markers (phosphatidylserine+MP and CD31+MP) was performed using a standardized flow cytometry-based protocol. RESULTS 15 subjects reached all altitudes and were included in the final analysis. Oxidative stress increased significantly at altitude. No statistically significant changes were observed comparing baseline to altitude measurements of phosphatidylserine expressing MP (p = 0.1718) and CD31+MP (p = 0.1305). Compared to baseline measurements, a significant increase in CD62+MP (p = 0.0079) and of CD144+MP was detected (p = 0.0315) at high altitudes. No significant difference in any MP level or oxidative stress markers were found between the treatment and the control group. CONCLUSION Hypobaric hypoxia is associated with increased oxidative stress and induces a significant increase in CD62+ and CD144+MP, whereas phosphatidylserine+MP and CD31+MP remain unchanged. This indicates that endothelial activation rather than an apoptosis is the primary factor of hypoxia induced endothelial dysfunction.

Health impacts of extreme weather: Flood fatalities in Texas

Floods are the leading cause of fatalities related to natural disasters in Texas. Texas leads the nation in flash flood fatalities. From 1959 through 2009 there were three times more fatalities in Texas (840) than the following state Pennsylvania (265). Texas also leads the nation in flood-related injuries (7753). Flood fatalities in Texas represent a serious public health problem. This study addresses several objectives of Healthy People 2010 including reducing deaths from motor vehicle accidents (Objective 15-15), reducing nonfatal motor vehicle injuries (Objective 15-17), and reducing drownings (Objective 15-29). The study examined flood fatalities that occurred in Texas between 1959 and 2008. Flood fatality statistics were extracted from three sources: flood fatality databases from the National Climatic Data Center, the Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States, and the Texas Department of State Health Services. The data collected for flood fatalities include the date, time, gender, age, location, and type of flood. Inconsistencies among the three databases were identified and discussed. Analysis reveals that most fatalities result from driving into flood water (77%). Spatial analysis indicates that more fatalities occurred in counties containing major urban centers – some of the Flash Flood Alley counties (Bexar, Dallas, Travis, and Tarrant), Harris County (Houston), and Val Verde County (Del Rio). An intervention strategy targeting the behavior of driving into flood water is proposed. The intervention is based on the Health Belief model. The main recommendation of the study is that flood fatalities in Texas can be reduced through a combination of improved hydrometeorological forecasting, educational programs aimed at enhancing the public awareness of flood risk and the seriousness of flood warnings, and timely and appropriate action by local emergency and safety authorities.^

Deuterium analysis of ice core GISP2

The Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) core can enhance our understanding of the relationship between parameters measured in the ice in central Greenland and variability in the ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere of the North Atlantic Ocean and adjacent land masses. Seasonal (summer, winter) to annual responses of dD and deuterium excess isotopic signals in the GISP2 core to the seesaw in winter temperatures between West Greenland and northern Europe from A.D. 1840 to 1970 are investigated. This seesaw represents extreme modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation, which also influences sea surface temperatures (SSTs), atmospheric pressures, geostrophic wind strength, and sea ice extents beyond the winter season. Temperature excursions inferred from the dD record during seesaw/extreme NAO mode years move in the same direction as the West Greenland side of the seesaw. Symmetry with the West Greenland side of the seesaw suggests a possible mechanism for damping in the ice core record of the lowest decadal temperatures experienced in Europe from A.D. 1500 to 1700. Seasonal and annual deuterium excess excursions during seesaw years show negative correlation with dD. This suggests an isotopic response to a SST/ land temperature seesaw. The isotopic record from GISP2 may therefore give information on both ice sheet and sea surface temperature variability. Cross-plots of dD and d show a tendency for data to be grouped according to the prevailing mode of the seesaw, but do not provide unambiguous identification of individual seesaw years. A combination of ice core and tree ring data sets may allow more confident identification of GA and GB (extreme NAO mode) years prior to 1840.

Sporomorphs and quantitative analysis of the Eocene record from IODP Hole 318-U1356A

The early Eocene epoch was characterized by extreme global warmth, which in terrestrial settings was characterized by an expansion of near-tropical vegetation belts into the high latitudes. During the middle to late Eocene, global cooling caused the retreat of tropical vegetation to lower latitudes. In high-latitude settings, near-tropical vegetation was replaced by temperate floras. This floral change has recently been traced as far south as Antarctica, where along the Wilkes Land margin paratropical forests thrived during the early Eocene and temperate Nothofagus forests developed during the middle Eocene. Here we provide both qualitative and quantitative palynological data for this floral turnover based on a sporomorph record recovered at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1356 off the Wilkes Land margin. Following the nearest living relative concept and based on a comparison with modern vegetation types, we examine the structure and diversity patterns of the Eocene vegetation along the Wilkes Land margin. Our results indicate that the early Eocene forests along the Wilkes Land margin were characterized by a diverse canopy composed of plants that today occur in tropical settings; their richness pattern was similar to that of present-day forests from New Caledonia. The middle Eocene forests were characterized by a canopy dominated by Nothofagus and exhibited richness patterns similar to modern Nothofagus forests from New Zealand.

An Institutional Analysis of Environmental Pollution Disputes in Taiwan: Cases of 'Self-Relief'

During the late 1980s and early 1990s in Taiwan, people's protests against environmental pollution often took the form of "self-relief," meaning that they attempted to fight polluters using their own resources, without relying on legal or administrative procedures. Why did such an extreme form of disputes become so widespread? What institutional changes did these movements bring about? These questions are analyzed using the analytical framework of "law and economics." Our research shows that "self-relief" functioned to a certain extent as a means of realizing quick compensation for victims, and for reflecting the opinions of local people concerning development projects; in addition, it served to promote the formulation of law and administrative systems. However, as it was based on direct negotiations between the parties concerned, the outcome of each dispute only reflected the transient balance of forces, and the experience gained in negotiations was not accumulated as a social norm.

Contribution to the Analysis, Design and Assessment of Compact Antenna Test Ranges At Millimeter Wavelengths - Contribución al Análisis, Diseño y Caracterización de Sistemas de Medida de Antenas en Rango Compacto para Frecuencias Milimétricas

This Doctoral Thesis entitled Contribution to the analysis, design and assessment of compact antenna test ranges at millimeter wavelengths aims to deepen the knowledge of a particular antenna measurement system: the compact range, operating in the frequency bands of millimeter wavelengths. The thesis has been developed at Radiation Group (GR), an antenna laboratory which belongs to the Signals, Systems and Radiocommunications department (SSR), from Technical University of Madrid (UPM). The Radiation Group owns an extensive experience on antenna measurements, running at present four facilities which operate in different configurations: Gregorian compact antenna test range, spherical near field, planar near field and semianechoic arch system. The research work performed in line with this thesis contributes the knowledge of the first measurement configuration at higher frequencies, beyond the microwaves region where Radiation Group features customer-level performance. To reach this high level purpose, a set of scientific tasks were sequentially carried out. Those are succinctly described in the subsequent paragraphs. A first step dealed with the State of Art review. The study of scientific literature dealed with the analysis of measurement practices in compact antenna test ranges in addition with the particularities of millimeter wavelength technologies. Joint study of both fields of knowledge converged, when this measurement facilities are of interest, in a series of technological challenges which become serious bottlenecks at different stages: analysis, design and assessment. Thirdly after the overview study, focus was set on Electromagnetic analysis algorithms. These formulations allow to approach certain electromagnetic features of interest, such as field distribution phase or stray signal analysis of particular structures when they interact with electromagnetic waves sources. Properly operated, a CATR facility features electromagnetic waves collimation optics which are large, in terms of wavelengths. Accordingly, the electromagnetic analysis tasks introduce an extense number of mathematic unknowns which grow with frequency, following different polynomic order laws depending on the used algorithmia. In particular, the optics configuration which was of our interest consisted on the reflection type serrated edge collimator. The analysis of these devices requires a flexible handling of almost arbitrary scattering geometries, becoming this flexibility the nucleus of the algorithmia’s ability to perform the subsequent design tasks. This thesis’ contribution to this field of knowledge consisted on reaching a formulation which was powerful at the same time when dealing with various analysis geometries and computationally speaking. Two algorithmia were developed. While based on the same principle of hybridization, they reached different order Physics performance at the cost of the computational efficiency. Inter-comparison of their CATR design capabilities was performed, reaching both qualitative as well as quantitative conclusions on their scope. In third place, interest was shifted from analysis - design tasks towards range assessment. Millimetre wavelengths imply strict mechanical tolerances and fine setup adjustment. In addition, the large number of unknowns issue already faced in the analysis stage appears as well in the on chamber field probing stage. Natural decrease of dynamic range available by semiconductor millimeter waves sources requires in addition larger integration times at each probing point. These peculiarities increase exponentially the difficulty of performing assessment processes in CATR facilities beyond microwaves. The bottleneck becomes so tight that it compromises the range characterization beyond a certain limit frequency which typically lies on the lowest segment of millimeter wavelength frequencies. However the value of range assessment moves, on the contrary, towards the highest segment. This thesis contributes this technological scenario developing quiet zone probing techniques which achieves substantial data reduction ratii. Collaterally, it increases the robustness of the results to noise, which is a virtual rise of the setup’s available dynamic range. In fourth place, the environmental sensitivity of millimeter wavelengths issue was approached. It is well known the drifts of electromagnetic experiments due to the dependance of the re sults with respect to the surrounding environment. This feature relegates many industrial practices of microwave frequencies to the experimental stage, at millimeter wavelengths. In particular, evolution of the atmosphere within acceptable conditioning bounds redounds in drift phenomena which completely mask the experimental results. The contribution of this thesis on this aspect consists on modeling electrically the indoor atmosphere existing in a CATR, as a function of environmental variables which affect the range’s performance. A simple model was developed, being able to handle high level phenomena, such as feed - probe phase drift as a function of low level magnitudes easy to be sampled: relative humidity and temperature. With this model, environmental compensation can be performed and chamber conditioning is automatically extended towards higher frequencies. Therefore, the purpose of this thesis is to go further into the knowledge of millimetre wavelengths involving compact antenna test ranges. This knowledge is dosified through the sequential stages of a CATR conception, form early low level electromagnetic analysis towards the assessment of an operative facility, stages for each one of which nowadays bottleneck phenomena exist and seriously compromise the antenna measurement practices at millimeter wavelengths.

Extreme temperature events analyzed with Fast Fourier Transform

Extreme weather and climate events have received increased attention in the last few years, due to the often large loss of agriculture business and exponentially increasing costs associated with them and insurance planning. This increased attention raises the question as to whether extreme weather and climate events are truly increasing, whether this is only a perceived increase exacerbated by enhanced media coverage, or both. There are a number of ways extreme climate events can be defined, such as extreme daily temperatures, extreme daily rainfall amounts, and large areas experiencing unusually warm monthly temperatures, among others. In this study, we will focus our attention in frost and heatstroke events measuring it as the number of days under 0 ºC and number of days with daily maximum over 30ºC monthly respectively. We have studied the trends in these extreme events applying a Fast Fourier Transform to the series to clarify the tendency. Lack of long-term climate data suitable for analysis of extremes is the single biggest obstacle to quantifying whether extreme events have changed over the twentieth century, including high temporal and spatial resolution observations of temperatures. However, several series have been grouped in different ways: chosen the longest series independently, by provinces, by main watersheds and altitude. On the other hand, synthetic series generated by Luna and Balairón (AEMet) were also analyzed. The results obtained by different pooling data are discussed concluding the difficulties to assess the extreme events tendencies and high regional variation in the trends.

Combining static analysis and profiling for estimating execution times

Effective static analyses have been proposed which infer bounds on the number of resolutions. These have the advantage of being independent from the platform on which the programs are executed and have been shown to be useful in a number of applications, such as granularity control in parallel execution. On the other hand, in distributed computation scenarios where platforms with different capabilities come into play, it is necessary to express costs in metrics that include the characteristics of the platform. In particular, it is specially interesting to be able to infer upper and lower bounds on actual execution times. With this objective in mind, we propose an approach which combines compile-time analysis for cost bounds with a one-time profiling of a given platform in order to determine the valúes of certain parameters for that platform. These parameters calibrate a cost model which, from then on, is able to compute statically time bound functions for procedures and to predict with a significant degree of accuracy the execution times of such procedures in that concrete platform. The approach has been implemented and integrated in the CiaoPP system.

Using combined static analysis and profiling for logic program execution time estimation

Predicting statically the running time of programs has many applications ranging from task scheduling in parallel execution to proving the ability of a program to meet strict time constraints. A starting point in order to attack this problem is to infer the computational complexity of such programs (or fragments thereof). This is one of the reasons why the development of static analysis techniques for inferring cost-related properties of programs (usually upper and/or lower bounds of actual costs) has received considerable attention.

Determinacy analysis for logic programs using mode and type information

We propose an analysis for detecting procedures and goals that are deterministic (i.e. that produce at most one solution), or predicates whose clause tests are mutually exclusive (which implies that at most one of their clauses will succeed) even if they are not deterministic (because they cali other predicates that can produce more than one solution). Applications of such determinacy information include detecting programming errors, performing certain high-level program transformations for improving search efñciency, optimizing low level code generation and parallel execution, and estimating tighter upper bounds on the computational costs of goals and data sizes, which can be used for program debugging, resource consumption and granularity control, etc. We have implemented the analysis and integrated it in the CiaoPP system, which also infers automatically the mode and type information that our analysis takes as input. Experiments performed on this implementation show that the analysis is fairly accurate and efncient.

Multivariant non-failure analysis via standard abstract interpretation

Non-failure analysis aims at inferring that predicate calis in a program will never fail. This type of information has many applications in functional/logic programming. It is essential for determining lower bounds on the computational cost of calis, useful in the context of program parallelization, instrumental in partial evaluation and other program transformations, and has also been used in query optimization. In this paper, we re-cast the non-failure analysis proposed by Debray et al. as an abstract interpretation, which not only allows to investígate it from a standard and well understood theoretical framework, but has also several practical advantages. It allows us to incorpórate non-failure analysis into a standard, generic abstract interpretation engine. The analysis thus benefits from the fixpoint propagation algorithm, which leads to improved information propagation. Also, the analysis takes advantage of the multi-variance of the generic engine, so that it is now able to infer sepárate non-failure information for different cali patterns. Moreover, the implementation is simpler, and allows to perform non-failure and covering analyses alongside other analyses, such as those for modes and types, in the same framework. Finally, besides the precisión improvements and the additional simplicity, our implementation (in the Ciao/CiaoPP multiparadigm programming system) also shows better efRciency.