Causalité et explication causale chez James Woodward

Certains philosophes affirment que les relations causales sont fondées sur les lois de la nature. Cette conception cadre mal avec la réalité des sciences biomédicales et des sciences humaines. Pour se rapprocher de la pratique réelle des diverses sciences, James Woodward propose une conception de la causalité et de l’explication causale fondée sur une relation beaucoup moins exigeante que celle de loi de la nature, qu’il appelle l’invariance. Le but de ce mémoire est de présenter le concept d’invariance et les autres concepts causaux qui s’y rattachent et, d’identifier certaines difficultés, dans le but de cerner l’usage approprié de cette famille de concepts. La conception causale de Woodward suppose que le but de la recherche des causes est pratique plutôt que simplement épistémique : il s’agit pour les agents de s’appuyer sur les causes pour modifier les phénomènes. Cette conception est également non-réductive; elle utilise des contrefactuels et reflète les méthodes expérimentales des diverses sciences. La cohérence de cette conception avec les généralisations causales réelles des sciences fait en sorte qu’elle abandonne l’objectif d’universalité rattaché à la notion de loi de la nature, en faveur d’un objectif de fiabilité temporaire. De plus, comme le critère d’invariance est peu exigeant, d’autres critères doivent lui être ajoutés pour identifier, parmi les relations causales (c’est-à-dire invariantes), les relations les plus susceptibles d’être employées pour modifier les phénomènes de façon fiable.

Factors affecting current and future treeline locations and dynamics in the Peruvian Andes

The elevational distributions of tropical treelines are thought to be determined by temperature, and are predicted to shift upslope in response to global warming. In contrast to this hypothesis, global-scale studies have shown that only half of all studied treelines are shifting upslope. Understanding how treelines will respond to climate change has important implications for global biodiversity, especially in the tropics, because tropical treelines generally represent the upper-elevation distribution limit of the hyper-diverse cloudforest ecosystem. In Chapter 1, I introduce the idea that grasslands found above tropical treelines may represent a potential grass ceiling which forest species cannot cross or invade. I use an extensive literature review to outline potential mechanisms which may be acting to stabilize treeline and prevent forest expansion into high-elevation grasslands. In Chapters 2-4, I begin to explore these potential mechanisms through the use of observational and experimental methods. In Chapter 2, I show that there are significant numbers of seedlings occurring just outside of the treeline in the open grasslands and that seed rain is unlikely to limit seedling recruitment above treeline. I also show that microclimates outside of the closed-canopy cloudforest are highly variable and that mean temperatures are likely a poor explanation of tropical treeline elevations. In Chapter 3, I show that juvenile trees maintain freezing resistances similar to adults, but nighttime radiative cooling near the ground in the open grassland results in lower cold temperatures relative to the free atmosphere, exposing seedlings of some species growing above treeline to lethal frost events. In Chapter 4, I use a large-scale seedling transplant experiment to test the effects of mean temperature, absolute low temperature and shade on transplanted seedling survival. I find that increasing mean temperature negatively affects seedling survival of two treeline species while benefiting another. In addition, low temperature extremes and the presence of shade also appear to be important factors affecting seedling survival above tropical treelines. This work demonstrates that mean temperature is a poor predictor of tropical treelines and that temperature extremes, especially low temperatures, and non-climatic variables should be included in predictions of current and future tropical treeline dynamics.^

Quality of Chicken Feather Processed in Different Conditions

Abstract. The objective of this research was to evaluate the hydrolyzed chicken feather based on pepsin digestibility and nutrient content, after physico-chemical and biological process. It was carried out by experimental methods at feed and nutrition laboratory. The treatments were hydrolyzed feather meals immersed in 0.5% NaOH and Na2S solution for 0, 2, 4, 6 and 8 hours, each treatment was repeated three times. The results showed that chemical treatment (NaOH-Na2S) in various time of incubation at 60oC followed by fermentation using Bacillus sp. MTS at 37oC for four days decreased the protein of hydrolyzed feather (78.88 to 73.06%), but increased the keratin fiber (1.9 to 3.26%). Pepsin digestibility informed that the increasing incubation time from 0, 2, 4, 6 to 8 hours resulted in higher solubility than that of control (30.2% at 8 hours vs 15.4% at 0 hours). Processing chicken feather  by  0.5% NaOH and Na2S solution at 60oC for 6 hours followed by fermentation increased the value of pepsin digestibility.  Key words: hydrolyzed, Bacillus sp. MTS, feather, solubility Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi kualitas nutrien tepung bulu ayam hasil proses hidrolisis secara fisiko-kimia dan biologis menggunakan Bacillus sp. MTS. Metode eksperimental digunakan dalam penelitian yang menggunakan dua tahap proses hidrolisis yaitu tahap 1: setelah perebusan bulu dalam larutan NaOH maka bulu direndam dalam larutan  0.5% NaOH dan Na2S pada 600C dan tahap 2: fermentasi bulu selama empat hari pada suhu 370C. Perlakuan berupa waktu inkubasi yaitu 0, 2, 4, 6 dan 8 jam diterapkan pada tahap kedua dengan ulangan sebanyak tiga kali. Perlakuan fisiko-kimia yang dilanjutkan fermentasi menggunakan bakteri spesifik penghasil enzim-enzim pendegradasi keratin bulu menurunkan kadar  protein tepung bulu  (78,88% menjadi 73,06%) dan meningkatkan kadar serat tepung bulu (1,9 menjadi 3,26%). Uji kelarutan protein tepung bulu dalam pepsin menginfromasikan bahwa proses tahap 1 menghasilkan nilai kelarutan protein tepung bulu yang meningkat dua kali dibanding kontrol (30,2% pada 8 jam vs 15,4% pada 0 jam inkubasi) atau enam kali dibanding tepung bulu tanpa hidrolisis (5%). Pengolahan bulu ayam menggunakan cara pemanasan, perendaman dalam larutan NaOH dan Na2S selama 6 jam pada 600C serta fermentasi menghasilkan tepung bulu dengan daya larut dalam pepsin  lebih baik dibanding tanpa pengolahan.  Kata kunci: hidrolisis, tepung-bulu, Bacillus sp. MTS, kelarutan

Experimental evaluation of position control methods for hydraulic systems

Presents a unified and systematic assessment of ten position control strategies for a hydraulic servo system with single-ended cylinder driven by a proportional directional control valve. We aim at identifying those methods that achieve better tracking, have a low sensitivity to system uncertainties, and offer a good balance between development effort and end results. A formal approach for solving this problem relies on several practical metrics, which is introduced herein. Their choice is important, as the comparison results between controllers can vary significantly, depending on the selected criterion. Apart from the quantitative assessment, we also raise aspects which are difficult to quantify, but which must stay in attention when considering the position control problem for this class of hydraulic servo systems.

Study of wheel-rail impact at insulated rail joint through experimental and numerical methods

As part of an ongoing research on the development of a longer life insulated rail joint (IRJ), this paper reports a field experiment and a simplified 2D numerical modelling for the purpose of investigating the behaviour of rail web in the vicinity of endpost in an insulated rail joint (IRJ) due to wheel passages. A simplified 2D plane stress finite element model is used to simulate the wheel-rail rolling contact impact at IRJ. This model is validated using data from a strain gauged IRJ that was installed in a heavy haul network; data in terms of the vertical and shear strains at specific positions of the IRJ during train passing were captured and compared with the results of the FE model. The comparison indicates a satisfactory agreement between the FE model and the field testing. Furthermore, it demonstrates that the experimental and numerical analyses reported in this paper provide a valuable datum for developing further insight into the behaviour of IRJ under wheel impacts.

Experimental evaluation of hotspot identification methods

Identifying crash “hotspots”, “blackspots”, “sites with promise”, or “high risk” locations is standard practice in departments of transportation throughout the US. The literature is replete with the development and discussion of statistical methods for hotspot identification (HSID). Theoretical derivations and empirical studies have been used to weigh the benefits of various HSID methods; however, a small number of studies have used controlled experiments to systematically assess various methods. Using experimentally derived simulated data—which are argued to be superior to empirical data, three hot spot identification methods observed in practice are evaluated: simple ranking, confidence interval, and Empirical Bayes. Using simulated data, sites with promise are known a priori, in contrast to empirical data where high risk sites are not known for certain. To conduct the evaluation, properties of observed crash data are used to generate simulated crash frequency distributions at hypothetical sites. A variety of factors is manipulated to simulate a host of ‘real world’ conditions. Various levels of confidence are explored, and false positives (identifying a safe site as high risk) and false negatives (identifying a high risk site as safe) are compared across methods. Finally, the effects of crash history duration in the three HSID approaches are assessed. The results illustrate that the Empirical Bayes technique significantly outperforms ranking and confidence interval techniques (with certain caveats). As found by others, false positives and negatives are inversely related. Three years of crash history appears, in general, to provide an appropriate crash history duration.

Within-subject intra- and inter-method consistency of two experimental risk attitude elicitation methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods to used elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We asked subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decision between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that while on an aggregate(subject pool) level the results are (roughly) consistent, on an individual(within-subject) level,behavior is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low correlations. This again questions the reliability of experimental risk elicitation measures and the ability to use results from such methods to control for the risk aversion of subjects when explaining e�ects in other experimental games.

Within-subject intra- and inter-method consistency of two experimental risk attitude elicitation methods

We compare the consistency of choices in two methods used to elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We ask subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decisions between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that, while on an aggregate (subject pool) level the results are consistent, on an individual (within-subject) level, behaviour is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low (simple and rank) correlations.

Experimental investigations of improved dielectric condition monitoring methods on transformer oil-paper insulation system

Frequency Domain Spectroscopy (FDS) is successfully being used to assess the insulation condition of oil filled power transformers. However, it has to date only been implemented on de-energized transformers, which requires the transformers to be shut down for an extended period which can result in significant costs. To solve this issue, a method of implementing FDS under energized condition is proposed here. A chirp excitation waveform is used to replace the conventional sinusoidal waveform to reduce the measurement time in this method. Investigation of the dielectric response under the influence of a high voltage stress at power frequency is reported based on experimental results. To further understand the insulation ageing process, the geometric capacitance effect is removed to enhance the detection of the ageing signature. This enhancement enables the imaginary part of admittance to be used as a new indicator to assess the ageing status of the insulation.

The effectiveness of interpretive methods in informal educational facilities : an experimental study with reference to marine parks

Interpretation has been used in many tourism sectors as a technique in achieving building hannony between resources and human needs. The objectives of this study are to identify the types of the interpretive methods used, and to evaluate their effectiveness, in marine parks. This study reviews the design principles of an effective interpretation for marine wildlife tourism, and adopts Drams' five design principles (1997) into a conceptual framework. Enjoyment increase, knowledge gain, attitude and intention change, and behaviour modification were used as key indicators in the assessment of the interpretive effectiveness of the Vancouver Aquarium (VA) and Marineland Canada (MC). Since on-site research is unavailable, a virtual tour is created to represent the interpretive experiences in the two study sites. Self-administered questionnaires are used to measure responses. Through comparing responses to the questionnaires (pre-, post-virtual tours and follow-up), this study found that interpretation increased enjoyment and added to respondents' knowledge. Although the changes in attitudes and intentions are not significant, the findings indicate that attitude and intention changes did occur as a result of interpretation, but only to a limited extent. Overall results suggest that more techniques should be added to enhance the effectiveness of the interpretation in marine parks or self-guiding tours, and with careful design, virtual tours are the innovative interpretation techniques for marine parks or informal educational facilities.