The effect of the equivalent-weights particle filter on dynamical balance in a primitive equation model

The disadvantage of the majority of data assimilation schemes is the assumption that the conditional probability density function of the state of the system given the observations [posterior probability density function (PDF)] is distributed either locally or globally as a Gaussian. The advantage, however, is that through various different mechanisms they ensure initial conditions that are predominantly in linear balance and therefore spurious gravity wave generation is suppressed. The equivalent-weights particle filter is a data assimilation scheme that allows for a representation of a potentially multimodal posterior PDF. It does this via proposal densities that lead to extra terms being added to the model equations and means the advantage of the traditional data assimilation schemes, in generating predominantly balanced initial conditions, is no longer guaranteed. This paper looks in detail at the impact the equivalent-weights particle filter has on dynamical balance and gravity wave generation in a primitive equation model. The primary conclusions are that (i) provided the model error covariance matrix imposes geostrophic balance, then each additional term required by the equivalent-weights particle filter is also geostrophically balanced; (ii) the relaxation term required to ensure the particles are in the locality of the observations has little effect on gravity waves and actually induces a reduction in gravity wave energy if sufficiently large; and (iii) the equivalent-weights term, which leads to the particles having equivalent significance in the posterior PDF, produces a change in gravity wave energy comparable to the stochastic model error. Thus, the scheme does not produce significant spurious gravity wave energy and so has potential for application in real high-dimensional geophysical applications.

Twin experiments with the equivalent weights particle filter and HadCM3

This paper investigates the use of a particle filter for data assimilation with a full scale coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Synthetic twin experiments are performed to assess the performance of the equivalent weights filter in such a high-dimensional system. Artificial 2-dimensional sea surface temperature fields are used as observational data every day. Results are presented for different values of the free parameters in the method. Measures of the performance of the filter are root mean square errors, trajectories of individual variables in the model and rank histograms. Filter degeneracy is not observed and the performance of the filter is shown to depend on the ability to keep maximum spread in the ensemble.

Effects of forage source and extruded linseed supplementation on methane emissions from growing dairy cattle of differing body weights

Changes in diet carbohydrate amount and type (i.e., starch vs. fiber) and dietary oil supplements can affect ruminant methane emissions. Our objectives were to measure methane emissions, whole-tract digestibility, and energy and nitrogen utilization from growing dairy cattle at 2 body weight (BW) ranges, fed diets containing either high maize silage (MS) or high grass silage (GS), without or with supplemental oil from extruded linseed (ELS). Four Holstein-Friesian heifers aged 13 mo (BW range from start to finish of 382 to 526 kg) were used in experiment 1, whereas 4 lighter heifers aged 12 mo (BW range from start to finish of 292 to 419 kg) were used in experiment 2. Diets were fed as total mixed rations with forage dry matter (DM) containing high MS or high GS and concentrates in proportions (forage:concentrate, DM basis) of either 75:25 (experiment 1) or 60:40 (experiment 2), respectively. Diets were supplemented without or with ELS (Lintec[AU1: Add manufacturer name and location.]; 260 g of oil/ kg of DM) at 6% of ration DM. Each experiment was a 4 × 4 Latin square design with 33-d periods, with measurements during d 29 to 33 while animals were housed in respiration chambers. Heifers fed MS at a heavier BW (experiment 1) emitted 20% less methane per unit of DM intake (yield) compared with GS (21.4 vs. 26.6, respectively). However, when repeated with heifers of a lower BW (experiment 2), methane yield did not differ between the 2 diets (26.6 g/kg of DM intake). Differences in heifer BW had no overall effect on methane emissions, except when expressed as grams per kilogram of digestible organic matter (OMD) intake (32.4 vs. 36.6, heavy vs. light heifers). Heavier heifers fed MS in experiment 1 had a greater DM intake (9.4 kg/d) and lower OMD (755 g/kg), but no difference in N utilization (31% of N intake) compared with heifers fed GS (7.9 kg/d and 799 g/kg, respectively). Tissue energy retention was nearly double for heifers fed MS compared with GS in experiment 1 (15 vs. 8% of energy intake, respectively). Heifers fed MS in experiment 2 had similar DM intake (7.2 kg/d) and retention of energy (5% of intake energy) and N (28% of N intake), compared with GS-fed heifers, but OMD was lower (741 vs. 765 g/kg, respectively). No effect of ELS was noted on any of the variables measured, irrespective of animal BW, and this was likely due to the relatively low amount of supplemental oil provided. Differences in heifer BW did not markedly influence dietary effects on methane emissions. Differences in methane yield were attributable to differences in dietary starch and fiber composition associated with forage type and source.

Effect of maternal protein restriction during pregnancy and postweaning high-fat feeding of diet-induced thermogenesis in adult mouse offspring

Purpose Prenatal undernutrition followed by postweaning feeding of a high-fat diet results in obesity in the adult offspring. In this study, we investigated whether diet-induced thermogenesis is altered as a result of such nutritional mismatch. Methods Female MF-1 mice were fed a normal protein (NP, 18 % casein) or a protein-restricted (PR, 9 % casein) diet throughout pregnancy and lactation. After weaning, male offspring of both groups were fed either a high-fat diet (HF; 45 % kcal fat) or standard chow (C, 7 % kcal fat) to generate the NP/C, NP/HF, PR/C and PR/HF adult offspring groups (n = 7–11 per group). Results PR/C and NP/C offspring have similar body weights at 30 weeks of age. Postweaning HF feeding resulted in significantly heavier NP/HF offspring (P < 0.01), but not in PR/HF offspring, compared with their chow-fed counterparts. However, the PR/HF offspring exhibited greater adiposity (P < 0.01) v the NP/HF group. The NP/HF offspring had increased energy expenditure and increased mRNA expression of uncoupling protein-1 and β-3 adrenergic receptor in the interscapular brown adipose tissue (iBAT) compared with the NP/C mice (both at P < 0.01). No such differences in energy expenditure and iBAT gene expression were observed between the PR/HF and PR/C offspring. Conclusions These data suggest that a mismatch between maternal diet during pregnancy and lactation, and the postweaning diet of the offspring, can attenuate diet-induced thermogenesis in the iBAT, resulting in the development of obesity in adulthood.

Implicit equal-weights particle filter

Filter degeneracy is the main obstacle for the implementation of particle filter in non-linear high-dimensional models. A new scheme, the implicit equal-weights particle filter (IEWPF), is introduced. In this scheme samples are drawn implicitly from proposal densities with a different covariance for each particle, such that all particle weights are equal by construction. We test and explore the properties of the new scheme using a 1,000-dimensional simple linear model, and the 1,000-dimensional non-linear Lorenz96 model, and compare the performance of the scheme to a Local Ensemble Kalman Filter. The experiments show that the new scheme can easily be implemented in high-dimensional systems and is never degenerate, with good convergence properties in both systems.

Sustained growth, government expenditure and inflation

We construct and simulate a theoretical model in order to explain particular historical experiences in which inflation acceleration apparently helped to spur a period of economic growth. Government financed expenditures affect positively the produtivity growth in this model so that the distortionary effect of inflation tax is compensated by the productive effect of public expenditures. We show that for some interval of money creation rates there is an equilibrium where money is valued and where steady state physica1 capital grows with inflation. It is a1so shown that zero inflation and growth maximization are never the optimal policies.

Internet share of advertising expenditure : growth drivers and inhibitors in the brazilian market

Os investimentos com publicidade na Internet como uma percentagem das despesas totais de publicidade variam significativamente de um país para outro. O número é tão baixo quanto 4,7% no mercado brasileiro e tão alto como 28,5% no mercado britânico (ZenithOptimedia, 2011b). Algumas razões explicam tal disparidade. No nível macro, a participação dos gastos com publicidade na Internet está fortemente ligada a variáveis como o produto interno bruto per capita e à penetração da Internet na população. No nível micro, uma pesquisa qualitativa foi feita para identificar os fatores que contribuem e inibem o crescimento da participação da publicidade online no mercado brasileiro. A vasta lista de inibidores parece ter profundo impacto sobre como os profissionais de mercado tomar decisões de alocação de investimento em publicidade por tipo de mídia. Devido à legislação, à auto-regulamentação e às dinâmicas da indústria, grande parte da tomada de decisão é realizada por agências de publicidade. Estas parecem ter fortes incentivos econômicos para selecionar outros tipos de mídia e não a Internet ao definir planos de mídia. Ao mesmo tempo, a legislação e a auto-regulamentação fornecem desincentivos para corretores de mídia a operar no mercado local. A falta de profissionais qualificados e a padronização limitada também desempenham papéis importante para inibir uma maior participação da Internet nos gastos com publicidade no Brasil. A convergência dos resultados quantitativos com os qualitativos indica possíveis motivos pelos quais a participação da publicidade online no Brasil é tão baixa. Em primeiro lugar, a participação é explicada pelo estágio de desenvolvimento dos países. Quanto mais rico e mais desenvolvido um país, maior a proporção de gastos com publicidade online tende a ser. Em segundo lugar, o estágio econômico emergente do Brasil potencialmente dá espaço para o aumento do ineficiências do mercado, tais como programas de descontos oferecidos de forma desproporcional para os principais decisores de alocação de investimentos de mídia. Este fato aparentemente produz um feedback negativo, contribuindo para manter a baixa participação da publicidade online no total dos investimentos publicitários.

Genetic associations between weight at maturity and maturation rate with ages and weights at first and second calving in Canchim beef cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Heat or cold chronic stress affects organ weights and Hsp70 levels in chicken embryos

This study was carried out with the objective of evaluating the effect of heat (38.8 degreesC) or cold (35.8 degreesC) stress on chicken embryo development and tissues Hsp70 levels, after the 13th day of incubation. Embryo weight (percent egg weight), organ weight (percent embryo weight) and Hsp70 levels (ng Hsp70 mug(-1) total protein) in different tissues (liver, breast muscle, heart, lungs, brain and kidney) were studied at the end of incubation. Cold stress induced a lower embryo weight and lower kidney and lungs weights, whereas heart and liver were lighter in heat-stressed embryos. An interaction between temperature and age was obtained only for Hsp70 levels in kidney and heart. Cold-stressed embryos showed higher Hsp70 levels in the brain, lungs and liver; a decrease in brain and breast muscle Hsp70 levels was seen from the 19th to 20th days in control embryos. Hsp70 levels increased with age in kidneys of control embryos and in heart of heat- and cold-stressed embryos. In conclusion, this study showed that chicken embryo organ weights are affected by incubation temperature, and that Hsp70 expression is tissue dependent (higher levels being seen in the brain) being cold-stress more effective in increasing Hsp70 levels in most studied tissues.

Hematological values and body, heart and liver weights of male and female broiler embryos of young and old breeder eggs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Genotype by environment interaction for birth and weaning weights of composite beef cattle in different regions of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimation of genetic parameters for body weights, scrotal circumference, and testicular volume measured at different ages in Nellore cattle

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Study of relations among age at first calving, average weight gains and weights from weaning to maturity in Nellore cattle

Dados de 23.120 animais da raça Nelore foram utilizados para estimar herdabilidade e correlações genéticas para a idade ao primeiro parto, o ganho em peso da desmama ao ano e do ano ao sobreano, o peso à desmama, o peso ao ano, o peso ao sobreano e os pesos aos 2 e aos 5 anos de idade. Utilizou-se o método da máxima verossimilhança restrita, em análise multicaracterística. As herdabilidades estimadas para idade ao primeiro parto, ganho da desmama ao ano, ganho do ano ao sobreano, peso à desmama, peso ao ano, peso ao sobreano e peso aos 2 aos 5 anos foram de 0,17 ± 0,01; 0,23 ± 0,03; 0,25 ± 0,03; 0,28 ± 0,02; 0,26 ± 0,03; 0,30 ± 0,03; 0,32 ± 0,02 e 0,36 ± 0,04, respectivamente. Correlações genéticas baixas e negativas foram estimadas entre a idade ao primeiro parto e os pesos medidos em diferentes idades, que variaram de -0,26 a -0,14. As correlações genéticas estimadas entre a idade ao primeiro parto e os ganhos de peso também foram negativas, porém levemente superiores (-0,29 e -0,32). Os resultados indicam que a seleção para maior ganho de peso pode reduzir a idade ao primeiro parto e aumentar o peso adulto de fêmeas da raça Nelore. Mudança genética mais rápida para diminuição da idade ao primeiro parto das fêmeas pode ser obtida com a inclusão dessa característica nos índices de seleção.

Animal performance and carcass characteristics of Nellore young bulls fed coated or uncoated urea slaughtered at different weights

The objective of this study was to evaluate animal performance and carcass characteristics of 64 Nellore young bulls at 22 months of age finished in a feedlot and slaughtered at five body weights (350; 455; 485; 555 and 580 kg) fed diets containing coated or uncoated urea. The experimental design adopted was completely randomized, set in a 4 × 2 factorial arrangement, and for the variables assessed in the control animals, it was 5 × 2. No effect of interaction between slaughter weights and diets were observed, so the variables were analyzed separately, compared by polynomial contrasts and by the F test, respectively. The time animals remained in the feedlot to reach slaughter weights was 66, 88, 145 and 194 days. Average daily gain (ADG) showed quadratic behavior, with a maximum of 1.44 kg/day with animals of 491.7 kg. Dry matter intake (DMI) (kg/day) was similar in all the treatments, but it decreased linearly as body weight increased. The bionutritional efficiency worsened linearly as body weight rose. The elevation in slaughter weight resulted in linear decrease in the percentage of beef round and increase in forequarter. Backfat thickness and rib eye area of the longissimus increased linearly and the percentages of muscle and protein in the carcass reduced and those of fat and ether extract increased linearly as body weight increased. Average daily gain, DMI, feed efficiency and carcass characteristics were not affected by diets containing coated or uncoated urea. However, animals fed coated urea presenter better crude fiber and neutral detergent fiber intake.