Spike-based decision learning of nash equilibria in two-player games

Humans and animals face decision tasks in an uncertain multi-agent environment where an agent's strategy may change in time due to the co-adaptation of others strategies. The neuronal substrate and the computational algorithms underlying such adaptive decision making, however, is largely unknown. We propose a population coding model of spiking neurons with a policy gradient procedure that successfully acquires optimal strategies for classical game-theoretical tasks. The suggested population reinforcement learning reproduces data from human behavioral experiments for the blackjack and the inspector game. It performs optimally according to a pure (deterministic) and mixed (stochastic) Nash equilibrium, respectively. In contrast, temporal-difference(TD)-learning, covariance-learning, and basic reinforcement learning fail to perform optimally for the stochastic strategy. Spike-based population reinforcement learning, shown to follow the stochastic reward gradient, is therefore a viable candidate to explain automated decision learning of a Nash equilibrium in two-player games.

The radiographic assessment of implant patients: decision-making criteria

Indications for the most frequently used imaging modalities in implant dentistry are proposed based on clinical need and biologic risk for the patient. To calculate the biologic risk, the authors carried out dose measurements. They demonstrated that the risk from a periapical radiograph is 20% of that from a panoramic radiograph. A panoramic radiograph and a series of 4 conventional tomographs of a single-tooth gap in the molar region carry 5% and 13% of the risk from computed tomography of the maxilla, respectively. Panoramic radiography is considered the standard radiographic examination for treatment planning of implant patients, because it imparts a low dose while giving the best radiographic survey. Periapical radiographs are used to elucidate details or to complete the findings obtained from the panoramic radiograph. Other radiographic methods, such as conventional film tomography or computed tomography, are applied only in special circumstances, film tomography being preferred for smaller regions of interest and computed tomography being justified for the complete maxilla or mandible when methods for dose reduction are followed. During follow-up, intraoral radiography is considered the standard radiographic examination, particularly for implants in the anterior region of the maxilla or for scientific studies. In patients requiring more than 5 periapical images, panoramic radiography is preferred.

Evidence-based diagnosis

Making an accurate diagnosis is essential to ensure that a patient receives appropriate treatment and correct information regarding their prognosis. Characteristics of diagnostic tests are quantified in test accuracy studies, but many such studies have methodological flaws. The HSRC evidence-based diagnosis programme has focused on methods for systematic reviews of test accuracy studies, and the wider context in which tests are ordered and interpreted. We carried out a range of projects relating to literature searching, quality assessment, meta-analysis, presentation of results, and interactions between doctors and patients during the diagnostic process. We have shown that systematic reviews of test accuracy studies should search a range of databases and that current diagnostic filters do not have sufficient accuracy to be used in test accuracy reviews. Summary quality scores should not be used in test accuracy reviews; the Quality Assessment of Studies of Diagnostic Accuracy included in Systematic Reviews (QUADAS) tool for assessing test accuracy studies is acceptable for quality assessment. We have shown that the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) and bivariate models for meta-analysis of test accuracy are statistically equivalent in many circumstances, and have developed an add-on module for the statistical software package Stata that enables these statistically rigorous models to be fitted by those without expert statistical knowledge. Three areas that would benefit from further research are literature searching, synthesis of results from individual patient data and presentation of results.

Decision making in patients with acute abdominal pain at a university and at a rural hospital: Does the value of abdominal sonography differ?

Introduction and objectives Abdominal sonography is regarded as a quick and effective diagnostic tool for acute abdominal pain in emergency medicine. However, final diagnosis is usually based on a combination of various clinical examinations and radiography. The role of sonography in the decision making process at a hospital with advanced imaging capabilities versus a hospital with limited imaging capabilities but more experienced clinicians is unclear. The aim of this pilot study was to assess the relative importance of sonography and its influence on the clinical management of acute abdominal pain, at two Swiss hospitals, a university hospital (UH) and a rural hospital (RH). Methods 161 patients were prospectively examined clinically. Blood tests and sonography were performed in all patients. Patients younger than 18 years and patients with trauma were excluded. In both hospitals, the diagnosis before and after ultrasonography was registered in a protocol. Certainty of the diagnosis was expressed on a scale from 0% to 100%. The decision processes used to manage patients before and after they underwent sonography were compared. The diagnosis at discharge was compared to the diagnosis 2 – 6 weeks thereafter. Results Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of sonography were high: 94%, 88% and 91%, respectively. At the UH, management after sonography changed in only 14% of cases, compared to 27% at the RH. Additional tests were more frequently added at the UH (30%) than at the RH (18%), but had no influence on the decision making process-whether to operate or not. At the UH, the diagnosis was missed in one (1%) patient, but in three (5%) patients at the RH. No significant difference was found between the two hospitals in frequency of management changes due to sonography or in the correctness of the diagnosis. Conclusion Knowing that sonography has high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy in the diagnosis of acute abdominal pain, one would assume it would be an important diagnostic tool, particularly at the RH, where tests/imaging studies are rare. However, our pilot study indicates that sonography provides important diagnostic information in only a minority of patients with acute abdominal pain. Sonography was more important at the rural hospital than at the university hospital. Further costly examinations are generally ordered for verification, but these additional tests change the final treatment plan in very few patients.

Using a Prediction and Option Generation Paradigm to Understand Decision Making

In many complex and dynamic domains, the ability to generate and then select the appropriate course of action is based on the decision maker's "reading" of the situation--in other words, their ability to assess the situation and predict how it will evolve over the next few seconds. Current theories regarding option generation during the situation assessment and response phases of decision making offer contrasting views on the cognitive mechanisms that support superior performance. The Recognition-Primed Decision-making model (RPD; Klein, 1989) and Take-The-First heuristic (TTF; Johnson & Raab, 2003) suggest that superior decisions are made by generating few options, and then selecting the first option as the final one. Long-Term Working Memory theory (LTWM; Ericsson & Kintsch, 1995), on the other hand, posits that skilled decision makers construct rich, detailed situation models, and that as a result, skilled performers should have the ability to generate more of the available task-relevant options. The main goal of this dissertation was to use these theories about option generation as a way to further the understanding of how police officers anticipate a perpetrator's actions, and make decisions about how to respond, during dynamic law enforcement situations. An additional goal was to gather information that can be used, in the future, to design training based on the anticipation skills, decision strategies, and processes of experienced officers. Two studies were conducted to achieve these goals. Study 1 identified video-based law enforcement scenarios that could be used to discriminate between experienced and less-experienced police officers, in terms of their ability to anticipate the outcome. The discriminating scenarios were used as the stimuli in Study 2; 23 experienced and 26 less-experienced police officers observed temporally-occluded versions of the scenarios, and then completed assessment and response option-generation tasks. The results provided mixed support for the nature of option generation in these situations. Consistent with RPD and TTF, participants typically selected the first-generated option as their final one, and did so during both the assessment and response phases of decision making. Consistent with LTWM theory, participants--regardless of experience level--generated more task-relevant assessment options than task-irrelevant options. However, an expected interaction between experience level and option-relevance was not observed. Collectively, the two studies provide a deeper understanding of how police officers make decisions in dynamic situations. The methods developed and employed in the studies can be used to investigate anticipation and decision making in other critical domains (e.g., nursing, military). The results are discussed in relation to how they can inform future studies of option-generation performance, and how they could be applied to develop training for law enforcement officers.

Libre Courseware For Bayesian Decision Making

This paper describes the ideas and problems of the Edukalibre e-learning project, in which the author takes part. The basic objective of the project shares the development and exploitation of software components for web-based information systems applied to education as well as organizing of teaching material for them. The paper concerns a problem of the mathematical-oriented courseware and describes the experience in developing LaTeX-supporting online converting tool.

The SAKK cancer-specific geriatric assessment (C-SGA): a pilot study of a brief tool for clinical decision-making in older cancer patients

BACKGROUND Recommendations from international task forces on geriatric assessment emphasize the need for research including validation of cancer-specific geriatric assessment (C-SGA) tools in oncological settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of the SAKK Cancer-Specific Geriatric Assessment (C-SGA) in clinical practice. METHODS A cross sectional study of cancer patients >=65 years old (N = 51) with pathologically confirmed cancer presenting for initiation of chemotherapy treatment (07/01/2009-03/31/2011) at two oncology departments in Swiss canton hospitals: Kantonsspital Graubunden (KSGR N = 25), Kantonsspital St. Gallen (KSSG N = 26). Data was collected using three instruments, the SAKK C-SGA plus physician and patient evaluation forms. The SAKK C-SGA includes six measures covering five geriatric assessment domains (comorbidity, function, psychosocial, nutrition, cognition) using a mix of medical record abstraction (MRA) and patient interview. Five individual domains and one overall SAKK C-SGA score were calculated and dichotomized as below/above literature-based cut-offs. The SAKK C-SGA was evaluated by: patient and physician estimated time to complete, ease of completing, and difficult or unanswered questions. RESULTS Time to complete the patient questionnaire was considered acceptable by almost all (>=96%) patients and physicians. Patients reported slightly shorter times to complete the questionnaire than physicians (17.33 +/- 7.34 vs. 20.59 +/- 6.53 minutes, p = 0.02). Both groups rated the patient questionnaire as easy/fairly easy to complete (91% vs. 84% respectively, p = 0.14) with few difficult or unanswered questions. The MRA took on average 8.32 +/- 4.72 minutes to complete. Physicians (100%) considered time to complete MRA acceptable, 96% rated it as easy/fairly easy to complete. Individual study site populations differed on health-related characteristics (excellent/good physician-rated general health KSGR 71% vs. KSSG 32%, p = 0.007). The overall mean C-SGA score was 2.4 +/- 1.12. Patients at KSGR had lower C-SGA scores (2.00 +/- 1.19 vs. 2.81 +/- 0.90, p = 0.009) and a smaller proportion (28% vs.65%, p = 0.008) was above the C-SGA cut-off score compared to KSSG. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest the SAKK C-SGA is a feasible practical tool for use in clinical practice. It demonstrated discriminative ability based on objective geriatric assessment measures, but additional investigations on use for clinical decision-making are warranted. The SAKK C-SGA also provides important usable domain information for intervention to optimize outcomes in older cancer patients.

Virtual implant planning in the edentulous maxilla: criteria for decision making of prosthesis design

OBJECTIVES To evaluate prosthetic parameters in the edentulous anterior maxilla for decision making between fixed and removable implant prosthesis using virtual planning software. MATERIAL AND METHODS CT- or DVT-scans of 43 patients (mean age 62 ± 8 years) with an edentulous maxilla were analyzed with the NobelGuide software. Implants (≥3.5 mm diameter, ≥10 mm length) were virtually placed in the optimal three-dimensional prosthetic position of all maxillary front teeth. Anatomical and prosthetic landmarks, including the cervical crown point (C-Point), the acrylic flange border (F-Point), and the implant-platform buccal-end (I-Point) were defined in each middle section to determine four measuring parameters: (1) acrylic flange height (FLHeight), (2) mucosal coverage (MucCov), (3) crown-Implant distance (CID) and (4) buccal prosthesis profile (ProsthProfile). Based on these parameters, all patients were assigned to one of three classes: (A) MucCov ≤ 0 mm and ProsthProfile≥45(0) allowing for fixed prosthesis, (B) MucCov = 0-5 mm and/or ProsthProfile = 30(0) -45(0) probably allowing for fixed prosthesis, and (C) MucCov ≥ 5 mm and/or ProsthProfile ≤ 30(0) where removable prosthesis is favorable. Statistical analyses included descriptive methods and non-parametric tests. RESULTS Mean values were for FLHeight 10.0 mm, MucCov 5.6 mm, CID 7.4 mm, and ProsthProfile 39.1(0) . Seventy percent of patients fulfilled class C criteria (removable), 21% class B (probably fixed), and 2% class A (fixed), while in 7% (three patients) bone volume was insufficient for implant planning. CONCLUSIONS The proposed classification and virtual planning procedure simplify the decision-making process regarding type of prosthesis and increase predictability of esthetic treatment outcomes. It was demonstrated that in the majority of cases, the space between the prosthetic crown and implant platform had to be filled with prosthetic materials.

Sugar concentration influences decision making in <i>Apis mellifera</i> L. workers during early-stage honey storage behaviour

Decision making in honeybees is based on in- formation which is acquired and processed in order to make choices between two or more al- ternatives. These choices lead to the expression of optimal behaviour strategies such as floral constancy. Optimal foraging strategies such as floral constancy improve a colony’s chances of survival, however to our knowledge, there has been no research on decision making based on optimal storage strategies. Here we show, using diagnostic radioentomology, that decision mak- ing in storer bees is influenced by nectar sugar concentrations and that, within 48 hours of col- lection, honeybees workers store carbohydrates in groups of cells with similar sugar concentra- tions in a nonrandom way. This behaviour, as evidenced by patchy spatial cell distributions, would help to hasten the ripening process by reducing the distance between cells of similar sugar concentrations. Thus, colonies which ex- hibit optimal storage strategies such as these would have an evolutionary advantage and im- prove colony survival expectations over less efficient colonies and it should be plausible to select colonies that exhibit these preferred traits.

Tools for better SLM knowledge management and informed decision-making in addressing land degradation at different scales: the WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology

Desertification research conventionally focuses on the problem – that is, degradation – while neglecting the appraisal of successful conservation practices. Based on the premise that Sustainable Land Management (SLM) experiences are not sufficiently or comprehensively documented, evaluated, and shared, the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) initiative (www.wocat.net), in collaboration with FAO’s Land Degradation Assessment in Drylands (LADA) project (www.fao.org/nr/lada/) and the EU’s DESIRE project (http://www.desire-project.eu/), has developed standardised tools and methods for compiling and evaluating the biophysical and socio-economic knowledge available about SLM. The tools allow SLM specialists to share their knowledge and assess the impact of SLM at the local, national, and global levels. As a whole, the WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology comprises tools for documenting, self-evaluating, and assessing the impact of SLM practices, as well as for knowledge sharing and decision support in the field, at the planning level, and in scaling up identified good practices. SLM depends on flexibility and responsiveness to changing complex ecological and socioeconomic causes of land degradation. The WOCAT tools are designed to reflect and capture this capacity of SLM. In order to take account of new challenges and meet emerging needs of WOCAT users, the tools are constantly further developed and adapted. Recent enhancements include tools for improved data analysis (impact and cost/benefit), cross-scale mapping, climate change adaptation and disaster risk management, and easier reporting on SLM best practices to UNCCD and other national and international partners. Moreover, WOCAT has begun to give land users a voice by backing conventional documentation with video clips straight from the field. To promote the scaling up of SLM, WOCAT works with key institutions and partners at the local and national level, for example advisory services and implementation projects. Keywords: Sustainable Land Management (SLM), knowledge management, decision-making, WOCAT–LADA–DESIRE methodology.

A study of nurses' judgement of and participation in decision-making for nursing home placement for the elderly

This study investigated the effects of patient variables (physical and cognitive disability, significant others' preference and social support) on nurses' nursing home placement decision-making and explored nurses' participation in the decision-making process.^ The study was conducted in a hospital in Texas. A sample of registered nurses on units that refer patients for nursing home placement were asked to review a series of vignettes describing elderly patients that differed in terms of the study variables and indicate the extent to which they agreed with nursing home placement on a five-point Likert scale. The vignettes were judged to have good content validity by a group of five colleagues (expert consultants) and test-retest reliability based on the Pearson correlation coefficient was satisfactory (average of.75) across all vignettes.^ The study tested the following hypotheses: Nurses have more of a propensity to recommend placement when (1) patients have severe physical disabilities; (2) patients have severe cognitive disabilities; (3) it is the significant others' preference; and (4) patients have no social support nor alternative services. Other hypotheses were that (5) a nurse's characteristics and extent of participation will not have a significant effect on their placement decision; and (6) a patient's social support is the most important, single factor, and the combination of factors of severe physical and cognitive disability, significant others' preference, and no social support nor alternative services will be the most important set of predictors of a nurse's placement decision.^ Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to analyze the relationships implied in the hypothesis. A series of one-way ANOVA (bivariate analyses) of the main effects supported hypotheses one-five.^ Overall, the n-way ANOVA (multivariate analyses) of the main effects confirmed that social support was the most important single factor controlling for other variables. The 4-way interaction model confirmed that the most predictive combination of patient characteristics were severe physical and cognitive disability, no social support and the significant others did not desire placement. These analyses provided an understanding of the importance of the influence of specific patient variables on nurses' recommendations regarding placement. ^

Effects of anxiety on decision making and visual search behaviour in complex sport situations

Introduction Current empirical findings indicate that the efficiency of decision making (both for experts and near-experts) in simple situations is reduced under increased stress (Wilson, 2008). Explaining the phenomenon, the Attentional Control Theory (ACT, Eysenck et al., 2007) postulates an impairment of attentional processes resulting in a less efficient processing of visual information. From a practitioner’s perspective, it would be highly relevant to know whether this phenomenon can also be found in complex sport situations like in the game of football. Consequently, in the present study, decision making of football players was examined under regular vs. increased anxiety conditions. Methods 22 participants (11 experts and 11 near-experts) viewed 24 complex football situations (counterbalanced) in two anxiety conditions from the perspective of the last defender. They had to decide as fast and accurate as possible on the next action of the player in possession (options: shot on goal, dribble or pass to a designated team member) for equal numbers of trials in a near and far distance condition (based on the position of the player in possession). Anxiety was manipulated via a competitive environment, false feedback as well as ego threats. Decision time and accuracy, gaze behaviour (e.g., fixation duration on different locations) as well as state anxiety and mental effort were used as dependent variables and analysed with 2 (expertise) x 2 (distance) x 2 (anxiety) ANOVAs with repeated measures on the last two factors. Besides expertise differences, it was hypothesised that, based on ACT, increased anxiety reduces performance efficiency and impairs gaze behaviour. Results and Discussion Anxiety was manipulated successfully, indicated by higher ratings of state anxiety, F(1, 20) = 13.13, p < .01, ηp2 = .40. Besides expertise differences in decision making – experts responded faster, F(1, 20) = 11.32, p < .01, ηp2 = .36, and more accurate, F(1,20) = 23.93, p < .01, ηp2 = .55, than near-experts – decision time, F(1, 20) = 9.29, p < .01, ηp2 = .32, and mental effort, F(1, 20) = 7.33, p = .01, ηp2 = .27, increased for both groups in the high anxiety condition. This result confirms the ACT assumption that processing efficiency is reduced when being anxious. Replicating earlier findings, a significant expertise by distance interaction could be observed, F(1, 18) = 18.53, p < .01, ηp2 = .51), with experts fixating longer on the player in possession or the ball in the near distance and longer on other opponents, teammates and free space in the far distance condition. This shows that experts are able to adjust their gaze behaviour to affordances of displayed playing patterns. Additionally, a three way interaction was found, F(1, 18) = 7.37 p = .01, ηp2 = .29, revealing that experts utilised a reduced number of fixations in the far distance condition when being anxious indicating a reduced ability to pick up visual information. Since especially the visual search behaviour of experts was impaired, the ACT prediction that particularly top-down processes are affected by anxiety could be confirmed. Taken together, the results show that sports performance is negatively influenced by anxiety since longer response times, higher mental effort and inefficient visual search behaviour were observed. From a practitioner’s perspective, this finding might suggest preferring (implicit) perceptual cognitive training; however, this recommendation needs to be empirically supported in intervention studies. References: Eysenck, M. W., Derakshan, N., Santos, R., & Calvo, M. G. (2007). Anxiety and cognitive performance: Attentional control theory. Emotion, 7, 336-353. Wilson, M. (2008). From processing efficiency to attentional control: A mechanistic account of the anxiety-performance relationship. Int. Review of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 1, 184-201.

Effects of anxiety on decision making and visual search behaviour in complex sport situations

Based on the Attentional Control Theory (ACT; Eysenck et al., 2007), performance efficiency is decreased in high-anxiety situations because worrying thoughts compete for attentional resources. A repeated-measures design (high/low state anxiety and high/low perceptual task demands) was used to test ACT explanations. Complex football situations were displayed to expert and non-expert football players in a decision making task in a controlled laboratory setting. Ratings of state anxiety and pupil diameter measures were used to check anxiety manipulations. Dependent variables were verbal response time and accuracy, mental effort ratings and visual search behavior (e.g., visual search rate). Results confirmed that an anxiety increase, indicated by higher state-anxiety ratings and larger pupil diameters, reduced processing efficiency for both groups (higher response times and mental effort ratings). Moreover, high task demands reduced the ability to shift attention between different locations for the expert group in the high anxiety condition only. Since particularly experts, who were expected to use more top-down strategies to guide visual attention under high perceptual task demands, showed less attentional shifts in the high compared to the low anxiety condition, as predicted by ACT, anxiety seems to impair the shifting function by interrupting the balance between top-down and bottom-up processes.

Self-control in social decision making: A neurobiological perspective

Self-control is defined as the process in which thoughts, emotions, or prepotent responses are inhibited to efficiently enact a more focal goal. Self-control not only allows for more adaptive individual decision making but also promotes adaptive social decision making. In this chapter, we examine a burgeoning area of interdisciplinary research: the neuroscience of self-control in social decision making. We examine research on self-control in complex social contexts examined from a social neuroscience perspective. We review correlational evidence from neuroimaging studies and causal evidence from neuromodulation studies (i.e., brain stimulation). We specifically highlight research that shows that self-control involves the lateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) across a number of social domains and behaviors. Research has also begun to directly integrate nonsocial with social forms of self-control, showing that the basic neurobiological processes involved in stopping a motor response appear to be involved in social contexts that require self-control. Further, neural traits, such as baseline activation in the lateral PFC, can explain sources of individual differences in self-control capacity. We explore whether techniques that change brain functioning could target neural mechanisms related to self-control capacity to potentially enhance self-control in social behavior. Finally, we discuss several research questions ripe for examination. We broadly suggest that future research can now turn to exploring how neural traits and situational affordances interact to impact self-control in social decision making in order to continue to elucidate the processes that allow people to maintain and realize stable goals in a dynamic and often uncertain social environment.

The relation of secondary student's career choice readiness to a six-phase model of career decision-making

Based on common aspects of recent models of career decision-making (CDM) a sixphase model of CDM for secondary students is presented and empirically evaluated. The study tested the hypothesis that students who are in later phases possess more career choice readiness and consider different numbers of career alternatives. 266 Swiss secondary students completed measures tapping phase of CDM, career choice readiness, and number of considered career options. Career choice readiness showed an increase with phase of CDM. Later phases were generally associated with a larger increase in career choice readiness. Number of considered career options showed a curve-linear development with fewer options considered at the beginning and at the end of the process. Male students showed a larger variability in their distribution among the process with more male than female students in the first and last phase of the process. Implications for theory and practice are presented.