Evaluating Specification Tests for Markov-Switching Time-Series Models

We evaluate the performance of several specification tests for Markov regime-switching time-series models. We consider the Lagrange multiplier (LM) and dynamic specification tests of Hamilton (1996) and Ljung–Box tests based on both the generalized residual and a standard-normal residual constructed using the Rosenblatt transformation. The size and power of the tests are studied using Monte Carlo experiments. We find that the LM tests have the best size and power properties. The Ljung–Box tests exhibit slight size distortions, though tests based on the Rosenblatt transformation perform better than the generalized residual-based tests. The tests exhibit impressive power to detect both autocorrelation and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH). The tests are illustrated with a Markov-switching generalized ARCH (GARCH) model fitted to the US dollar–British pound exchange rate, with the finding that both autocorrelation and GARCH effects are needed to adequately fit the data.

Thai students' engagement with cooperative learning in mathematics classrooms

Over the past decade, Thai schools have been encouraged by the Thai Ministry of Education to introduce more student-centred pedagogies such as cooperative learning into their classrooms (Carter, 2006). However, prior research has indicated that the implementation of cooperative learning into Thai schools has been confounded by cultural traditions endemic within Thai schools (Deveney, 2005). The purpose of the study was to investigate how 32 Grade 3 and 32 Grade 4 students enrolled in a Thai school engaged with cooperative learning in mathematics classrooms after they had been taught cooperative learning strategies and skills. These strategies and skills were derived from a conceptual framework that was the outcome of an analysis and synthesis of social learning, behaviourist and socio-cognitive theories found in the research literature. The intervention began with a two week program during which the students were introduced to and engaged in practicing a set of cooperative learning strategies and skills (3 times a week). Then during the next four weeks (3 times a week), these cooperative learning strategies and skills were applied in the contexts of two units of mathematics lessons. A survey of student attitudes with respect to their engagement in cooperative learning was conducted at the conclusion of the six-week intervention. The results from the analysis of the survey data were triangulated with the results derived from the analysis of data from classroom observations and teacher interviews. The analysis of data identified four complementary processes that need to be considered by Thai teachers attempting to implement cooperative learning into their mathematics classrooms. The paper concludes with a set of criteria derived from the results of the study to guide Thai teachers intending to implement cooperative learning strategies and skills in their classrooms.

Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Analysing strategic alliances in building construction

Building construction is a highly competitive and risky business. This competitiveness is compounded where conflicting objectives amongst contracting and subcontracting firms sets the stage for an adversarial and potentially destructive approach. There is a need for change in the construction industry—not only to a more cooperative approach to build mutual trust, respect and good faith—but also from a confrontationist and adversarial attitude to a harmonious relationship. It is necessary to change the culture to create a win-win situation. “Strategic Alliances” is one such concept. A strategic alliance is a cooperative arrangement between two or more organisations that forms part of their overall strategies, and contributes to achieving their major goals and objectives. This paper begins with an overview of the Australian building construction industry, then reviews the literature and describes an analysis framework comprising six attributes of strategic alliances—trust, commitment, interdependence, cooperation, communication, and joint problem solving. Given the trend towards greater emphasis on broader contracting firm performance criteria, indicators are proposed as a component of the tender evaluation process for public works.

Infrastructure Sustainability : Damage Assessment in Multiple-Girder Composite Bridges Using Vibration Characteristics

Assessing the structural health state of urban infrastructure is crucial in terms of infrastructure sustainability. This chapter uses dynamic computer simulation techniques to apply a procedure using vibration-based methods for damage assessment in multiple-girder composite bridges. In addition to changes in natural frequencies, this multi-criteria procedure incorporates two methods, namely, the modal flexibility and the modal strain energy method. Using the numerically simulated modal data obtained through finite element analysis software, algorithms based on modal flexibility and modal strain energy change, before and after damage, are obtained and used as the indices for the assessment of structural health state. The feasibility and capability of the approach is demonstrated through numerical studies of a proposed structure with six damage scenarios. It is concluded that the modal strain energy method is capable of application to multiple-girder composite bridges, as evidenced through the example treated in this chapter.

Empirical derivation and validation of a wandering typology

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a wandering typology. ---------- DESIGN: Cross-sectional, correlational descriptive design. ---------- SETTING:: Twenty-two nursing homes and six assisted living facilities. ---------- PARTICIPANTS: One hundred forty-two residents with dementia who spoke English, met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria for dementia, scored less than 24 on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), were ambulatory (with or without assistive device), and maintained a stable regime of psychotropic medications were studied. ---------- MEASUREMENTS: Data on wandering were collected using direct observations, plotted serially according to rate and duration to yield 21 parameters, and reduced through factor analysis to four components: high rate, high duration, low to moderate rate and duration, and time of day. Other measures included the MMSE, Minimum Data Set 2.0 mobility items, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale—Geriatric, and tympanic body temperature readings. ---------- RESULTS: Three groups of wanderers were identified through cluster analysis: classic, moderate, and subclinical. MMSE, mobility, and cardiac and upper and lower gastrointestinal problems differed between groups of wanderers and in comparison with nonwanderers. ---------- CONCLUSION: Results have implications for improving identification of wanderers and treatment of possible contributing factors.

Characteristics of sustainable entrepreneurship : some early explorations from the CAUSEE study

Principal Topic: For forward thinking companies, the environment may represent the ''biggest opportunity for enterprise and invention the industrial world has ever seen'' (Cairncross 1990). Increasing awareness of environmental and sustainability issues through media including the promotion of Al Gore's ''An Inconvenient Truth'' has seen increased awareness of environmental and sustainability issues and increased demand for business processes that reduce detrimental environmental impacts of global development (Dean & McMullen 2007). The increased demand for more environmentally sensitive products and services represents an opportunity for the development of ventures that seek to satisfy this demand through entrepreneurial action. As a consequence, increasing recent market developments in renewable energy, carbon emissions, fuel cells, green building, and other sectors suggest an increasing importance of opportunities for environmental entrepreneurship (Dean and McMullen 2007) and increasingly important area of business activity (Schaper 2005). In the last decade in particular, big business has sought to develop a more ''sustainability/ green friendly'' orientation as a response to public pressure and increased government legislation and policy to improve environmental performance (Cohen and Winn 2007). Whilst much of the literature and media is littered with examples of sustainability practices of large firms, nascent and young sustainability firms have only recently begun generating strong research and policy interest (Shepherd, Kuskova and Patzelt 2009): not only for their potential to generate above average financial performance and returns owing to a greater popularity and demand towards sustainability products and services offerings, but also for their intent to lessen environmental impacts, and to provide a more accurate reflection of the ''true cost'' of market offerings taking into account carbon and environmental impacts. More specifically, researchers have suggested that although the previous focus has been on large firms and their impact on the environment, the estimated collective impact of entries and exits of nascent and young firms in development is substantial and could outweigh the combined environmental impact of large companies (Hillary, 2000). Therefore, it may be argued that greater attention should be paid to nascent and young firms and researching sustainability practices, for both their impact in reducing environmental impacts and potential higher financial performance. Whilst acknowledging this research only uses the first wave of a four year longitudinal study of nascent and young firms, it can still begin to provide initial analysis on which to continue further research. The aim of this paper therefore is to provide an overview of the emerging literature in sustainable entrepreneurship and to present some selected preliminary results from the first wave of the data collection, with comparison, where appropriate, of sustainable and firms that do not fulfil this criteria. ''One of the key challenges in evaluating sustainability entrepreneurship is the lack of agreement in how it is defined'' (Schaper, 2005: 10). Some evaluate sustainable entrepreneurs simply as one category of entrepreneurs with little difference between them and traditional entrepreneurs (Dees, 1998). Other research recognises values-based sustainable enterprises requiring a unique perspective (Parrish, 2005). Some see the environmental or sustainable entrepreneurship is a subset of social entrepreneurship (Cohen & Winn, 2007; Dean & McMullen, 2007) whilst others see it as a separate, distinct theory (Archer 2009). Following one of the first definitions of sustainability developed by the Brundtland Commission (1987) we define sustainable entrepreneurship as firms which ''seek to meet the needs and aspirations of the present without compromising the ability to meet those of the future''. ---------- Methodology/Key Propositions: In this exploratory paper we investigate sustainable entrepreneurship using Cohen et al.'s (2008) framework to identify strategies of nascent and young entrepreneurial firms. We use data from The Comprehensive Australian Study of Entrepreneurial Emergence (CAUSEE). This study shares the general empirical approach with PSED studies in the US (Reynolds et al 1994; Reynolds & Curtin 2008). The overall study uses samples of 727 nascent (not yet operational) firms and another 674 young firms, the latter being in an operational stage but less than four years old. To generate the sub sample of sustainability firms, we used content analysis techniques on firm titles, descriptions and product descriptions provided by respondents. Two independent coders used a predefined codebook developed from our review of the sustainability entrepreneurship literature (Cohen et al. 2009) to evaluate the content based on terms such as ''sustainable'' ''eco-friendly'' ''renewable energy'' ''environment'' amongst others. The inter-rater reliability was checked and the Kappa's co-efficient was found to be within the acceptable range (0.746). 85 firms fulfilled the criteria given for inclusion in the sustainability cohort. ---------- Results and Implications: The results for this paper are based on Wave one of the CAUSEE survey which has been completed and the data is available for analysis. It is expected that the findings will assist in beginning to develop an understanding of nascent and young firms that are driven to contribute to a society which is sustainable, not just from an economic perspective (Cohen et al 2008), but from an environmental and social perspective as well. The CAUSEE study provides an opportunity to compare the characteristics of sustainability entrepreneurs with entrepreneurial firms without a stated environmental purpose, which constitutes the majority of the new firms created each year, using a large scale novel longitudinal dataset. The results have implications for Government in the design of better conditions for the creation of new business, firms who assist sustainability in developing better advice programs in line with a better understanding of their needs and requirements, individuals who may be considering becoming entrepreneurs in high potential arenas and existing entrepreneurs make better decisions.

A model for engaging and evaluating innovative cross-sectoral education reform : case studies from Queensland, Australia

This paper will explore how a general education can contribute successfully to vocational outcomes using both Participatory Action Research (PAR) and Program Theory methodology. The paper will focus on the development aspects of ‘marrying’ vocational and general education including engagement processes, student, teacher, institute and employer preparation and the pathway possibilities that emerge. Successful cases presented include the: Healthy Futures program (pathways into the Health and Allied industries); Accounting Pathways program (simultaneously studying a general Accounting subject and a Certificate III vocational qualification); and Sustainable Sciences initiative (development of a vocational qualification that focuses on the emerging renewable energy industry and is linked to school science programs). The case studies have been selected because they are unique in character and application and can be used as a basis for future program development in other settings or curriculum areas.

Towards sustainable urban futures : evaluating urban sustainability performance of the Gold coast, Australia

Creating sustainable urban environments is one of the challenging issues that need a clear vision and implementation strategies involving changes in governmental values and decision making process for local governments. Particularly, internalisation of environmental externalities of daily urban activities (e.g. manufacturing, transportation and so on) has immense importance for which local policies are formulated to provide better living conditions for the people inhabiting urban areas. Even if environmental problems are defined succinctly by various stakeholders, complicated nature of sustainability issues demand a structured evaluation strategy and well-defined sustainability parameters for efficient and effective policy making. Following this reasoning, this study involves assessment of sustainability performance of urban settings mainly focusing on environmental problems caused by rapid urban expansion and transformation. By taking into account land-use and transportation interaction, it tries to reveal how future urban developments would alter daily urban travel behaviour of people and affect the urban and natural environments. The paper introduces a grid-based indexing method developed for this research and trailed as a GIS-based decision support tool to analyse and model selected spatial and aspatial indicators of sustainability in the Gold Coast. This process reveals parameters of site specific relationship among selected indicators that are used to evaluate index-based performance characteristics of the area. The evaluation is made through an embedded decision support module by assigning relative weights to indicators. Resolution of selected grid-based unit of analysis provides insights about service level of projected urban development proposals at a disaggregate level, such as accessibility to transportation and urban services, and pollution. The paper concludes by discussing the findings including the capacity of the decision support system to assist decision-makers in determining problematic areas and developing intervention policies for sustainable outcomes of future developments.

Compression for preventing recurrence of venous ulcers

Background: Up to 1% of adults will suffer from leg ulceration at some time. The majority of leg ulcers are venous in origin and are caused by high pressure in the veins due to blockage or weakness of the valves in the veins of the leg. Prevention and treatment of venous ulcers is aimed at reducing the pressure either by removing / repairing the veins, or by applying compression bandages / stockings to reduce the pressure in the veins. The vast majority of venous ulcers are healed using compression bandages. Once healed they often recur and so it is customary to continue applying compression in the form of bandages, tights, stockings or socks in order to prevent recurrence. Compression bandages or hosiery (tights, stockings, socks) are often applied for ulcer prevention. Objectives To assess the effects of compression hosiery (socks, stockings, tights) or bandages in preventing the recurrence of venous ulcers. To determine whether there is an optimum pressure/type of compression to prevent recurrence of venous ulcers. Search methods The searches for the review were first undertaken in 2000. For this update we searched the Cochrane Wounds Group Specialised Register (October 2007), The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) - The Cochrane Library 2007 Issue 3, Ovid MEDLINE - 1950 to September Week 4 2007, Ovid EMBASE - 1980 to 2007 Week 40 and Ovid CINAHL - 1982 to October Week 1 2007. Selection criteria Randomised controlled trials evaluating compression bandages or hosiery for preventing venous leg ulcers. Data collection and analysis Data extraction and assessment of study quality were undertaken by two authors independently. Results No trials compared recurrence rates with and without compression. One trial (300 patients) compared high (UK Class 3) compression hosiery with moderate (UK Class 2) compression hosiery. A intention to treat analysis found no significant reduction in recurrence at five years follow up associated with high compression hosiery compared with moderate compression hosiery (relative risk of recurrence 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.61 to 1.12). This analysis would tend to underestimate the effectiveness of the high compression hosiery because a significant proportion of people changed from high compression to medium compression hosiery. Compliance rates were significantly higher with medium compression than with high compression hosiery. One trial (166 patients) found no statistically significant difference in recurrence between two types of medium (UK Class 2) compression hosiery (relative risk of recurrence with Medi was 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.45 to 1.2). Both trials reported that not wearing compression hosiery was strongly associated with ulcer recurrence and this is circumstantial evidence that compression reduces ulcer recurrence. No trials were found which evaluated compression bandages for preventing ulcer recurrence. Authors' conclusions No trials compared compression with vs no compression for prevention of ulcer recurrence. Not wearing compression was associated with recurrence in both studies identified in this review. This is circumstantial evidence of the benefit of compression in reducing recurrence. Recurrence rates may be lower in high compression hosiery than in medium compression hosiery and therefore patients should be offered the strongest compression with which they can comply. Further trials are needed to determine the effectiveness of hosiery prescribed in other settings, i.e. in the UK community, in countries other than the UK.

Evaluating sewage associated JCV and BKV polyomaviruses for sourcing human fecal pollution in a coastal river in Southeast Queensland Australia

In this study, the host-sensitivity and -specificity of JCV and BKV polyomaviruses were evaluated by testing wastewater/fecal samples from nine host groups in Southeast Queensland, Australia. The JCV and BKV polyomaviruses were detected in 48 human wastewater samples collected from the primary and secondary effluent suggesting high sensitivity of these viruses in human wastewater. Of the 81 animal wastewater/fecal samples tested, 80 were PCR negative for this marker. Only one sample from pig wastewater was positive. Nonetheless, the overall host-specificity of these viruses to differentiate between human and animal wastewater/fecal samples was 0.99. To our knowledge, this is the first study in Australia that reports the high specificity of JCV and BKV polyomaviruses. To evaluate the field application of these viruses to detect human fecal pollution, 20 environmental samples were collected from a coastal river. Of the 20 samples tested, 15% and 70% samples exceeded the regulatory guidelines for E. coli and enterococci levels for marine waters. In all, 5 (25%) samples were PCR positive for JCV and BKV indicated the presence of human fecal pollution in the studied river. The results suggest that JCV and BKV detection using PCR could be a useful tool for the identification of human sourced fecal pollution in coastal waters.

Room for improvement : hotel giant resorts to Six Sigma to improve operations

Six Sigma provides a framework for quality improvement and business excellence. Introduced in the 1980s in manufacturing, the concept of Six Sigma has gained popularity in service organizations. After initial success in healthcare and banking, Six Sigma has gradually gained traction in other types of service industries, including hotels and lodging. Starwood Hotels and Resorts was the first hospitality giant to embrace Six Sigma. In 2001, Starwood adopted the method to develop innovative, customer-focused solutions and to transfer these solutions throughout the global organization. To analyze Starwood's use of Six Sigma, the authors collected data from articles, interviews, presentations and speeches published in magazines, newspapers and Web sites. This provided details to corroborate information, and they also made inferences from these sources. Financial metrics can explain the success of Six Sigma in any organization. There was no shortage of examples of Starwood's success resulting from Six Sigma project metrics uncovered during the research.