Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: evidências empíricas na economia brasileira (1991-2010)

This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Lourenço et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study

Expert system for hot forging design

Planning hot forging processes is a time-consuming activity with high costs involved because of the trial-and-error iterative methods used to design dies and to choose equipment and process conditions. Some processes demand many months to produce forged parts with controlled shapes, dimensions and microstructure. This paper shows how expert systems can help engineers to reduce the time needed to design precision forged parts and dies from machined parts. The software ADHFD interfacing MS Visual Basic v.5.0 and SolidEdge v.3.0 was used to design flashless hot forged gears, chosen from families of gears. © 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Avaliação da segurança e eficácia de novo preenchedor à base de ácido hialurônico no tratamento dos sulcos nasolabiais e contorno dos lábios

Introduction: The use of dermal filling techniques for soft tissue augmentation has greatly increased in recent years. Hyaluronic acid is one of the most used temporary dermal fillers in the treatment of facial wrinkles, furrows, and folds due to its effectiveness and safety. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of Perfectha®, a new hyaluronic acid filler, for nasolabial folds and lip correction. Methods: Open, multicenter study comprising 87 women. Efficacy was evaluated by the Global Aesthetic Improvement Scale and the Wrinkle Severity Rating Scale. Safety was evaluated through observation and the reporting of side effects. Results: One week after the injection of the filler, improvement in nasolabial folds and lips was observed in 86% and 89% of the women, respectively. Mild or moderate transient inflammatory reaction and ecchymoses occurred in 15% and 9% of patients, respectively, mainly in nasolabial folds. Two patients presented labial herpes simplex after treatment of the lips. The good results were maintained in 76% and 57% of women for nasolabial folds and in 72% and 45% of women for lips after 3 and 6 months, respectively. Conclusion: Perfectha® was effective and safe for these indications.

Bahamas and Barbados: empirical evidence of interest rate pass-through

Includes bibliography

Crescimento econômico restrito pelo balanço de pagamentos, no Brasil: 1951-2008

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modelagem e controle de sistemas fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Informação quântica e relatividade

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

O pólo industrial de Manaus como modelo de desenvolvimento econômico avaliado sob o enfoque da Lei de Kaldor-Verdoorn

Este estudo tem como objetivo mensurar e avaliar a dinâmica econômica do Pólo Industrial de Manaus como um modelo de desenvolvimento sob o enfoque da Lei de kaldor-Verdoorn. Especificamente, analisar a relação entre produção e produtividade, sob as condições preconizadas por esta lei, aplicadas às indústrias do Pólo Industrial de Manaus. A Lei de Kaldor-Verdoorn propõe que à medida que a produção aumenta, há uma forte tendência, ao longo do tempo, de crescimento da produtividade. Economias de escala são geradas endogenamente por mudança técnica e aprendizagem tecnológica (learning by doing), fruto do crescimento da demanda que permite que se explore as economias de escala dinâmicas presentes, principalmente, no setor manufatureiro. Dessa forma, estima-se a produtividade total de fatores e a produtividade parcial. Analisa-se a dinâmica dessa economia efetuando-se teste empírico para a indústria do Pólo Industrial de Manaus, no período de janeiro de 1995 a dezembro de 2004, através de um modelo de correção de erros, teste de causalidade de Granger e modelo VAR estrutural,. Os resultados obtidos indicam um razoável grau de dinamismo dessa economia, dado que a combinação de efeitos de curto e longo prazo fez com que a produtividade crescesse num ritmo mais acelerado, com respostas rápidas no curto prazo, da produtividade a choques de mudanças no valor total da produção e emprego. Comprovam também a existência de fontes endógenas de crescimento da produtividade, evidenciando economias de escala crescente.

Controle de qualidade para 3D-vídeo streaming em redes em malha sem fio

Redes em Malha sem Fio ( do inglês Wireless Mesh Networks - WMNs) são previstas serem uma das mais importantes tecnologias sem fio no que se refere ao fornecimento do acesso de última milha em redes multimídia futuras. Elas vão permitir que milhares de usuários fixos e móveis acessem, produzam e compartilhem conteúdo multimídia de forma onipresente. Neste contexto, vídeo 3D está previsto atrair mais e mais o mercado multimídia com a perspectiva de reforçar as aplicações (vídeos de vigilância, controle demissões críticas, entretenimento, etc). No entanto, o desafio de lidar com a largura de banda optante, escassez de recursos e taxas de erros variantes com o tempo destas redes, ilustra a necessidade da transmissão de vídeos 3D mais resistentes a erros. Dessa forma, alternativas como abordagens de Correção Antecipada de Erros (FEC) se tornam necessárias para fornecer a distribuição de aplicações de vídeo para usuários sem fio com garantia de melhor qualidade de serviço (QoS) e Qualidade de Experiência (QoE). Esta dissertação apresenta um mecanismo baseado em FEC com Proteção Desigual de Erros (UEP) para melhorar a transmissão de vídeo 3D em WMNs, aumentando a satisfação do usuário e permitindo uma melhoria do uso dos recursos sem fio. Os benefícios e impactos do mecanismo proposto serão demonstrados usando simulação e a avaliação será realizada através de métricas de QoE objetivas e subjetivas.

Modelagem Cross-Layer da qualidade de experiência para transmissões de vídeo em sistemas sem fio OFDM

Este trabalho apresenta um estudo sobre transmissões de vídeo em sistemas sem fio. O objetivo da metodologia aplicada é comprovar a existência de uma relação direta entre a BER e a perda de qualidade (Perda de PSNR) nas transmissões de vídeo em sistemas OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing). Os resultados foram obtidos a partir de simulações, desenvolvidas no ambiente computacional Matlab®, e, aferições em cenários reais, realizadas no campus universitário e dentro do laboratório de estudos, em ambiente controlado. A partir da comparação entre dados simulados e aferidos, foi comprovada a relação entre BER e Perda de PSNR, resultando na formulação de um modelo empírico Cross-Layer com característica exponencial. A modelagem obteve erro RMS e desvio padrão próximos de 1,65 dB quando comparada com as simulações. Além disso, sua validação foi realizada a partir dos dados obtidos de cenários reais, que não foram usados para ajustar os parâmetros da equação obtida. O modelo obtido não necessita da especificação do tipo de canal ou codificação utilizada no FEC (Forward Error Correction), possibilitando uma futura integração com softwares de planejamento de redes, em versões comerciais ou open-sources.

Análise da dinâmica de preços entre os mercados futuros de grão, farelo e óleo de soja na China e Estados Unidos

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Mercado de ações brasileiro: uma investigação empírica sobre suas relações de longo prazo e de precedência temporal pré-crise de 2008

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Next-generation sequencing reveals large connected networks of intra-host HCV variants

Background: Next-generation sequencing (NGS) allows for sampling numerous viral variants from infected patients. This provides a novel opportunity to represent and study the mutational landscape of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) within a single host.Results: Intra-host variants of the HCV E1/E2 region were extensively sampled from 58 chronically infected patients. After NGS error correction, the average number of reads and variants obtained from each sample were 3202 and 464, respectively. The distance between each pair of variants was calculated and networks were created for each patient, where each node is a variant and two nodes are connected by a link if the nucleotide distance between them is 1. The work focused on large components having > 5% of all reads, which in average account for 93.7% of all reads found in a patient. The distance between any two variants calculated over the component correlated strongly with nucleotide distances (r = 0.9499; p = 0.0001), a better correlation than the one obtained with Neighbour-Joining trees (r = 0.7624; p = 0.0001). In each patient, components were well separated, with the average distance between (6.53%) being 10 times greater than within each component (0.68%). The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous changes was calculated and some patients (6.9%) showed a mixture of networks under strong negative and positive selection. All components were robust to in silico stochastic sampling; even after randomly removing 85% of all reads, the largest connected component in the new subsample still involved 82.4% of remaining nodes. In vitro sampling showed that 93.02% of components present in the original sample were also found in experimental replicas, with 81.6% of reads found in both. When syringe-sharing transmission events were simulated, 91.2% of all simulated transmission events seeded all components present in the source.Conclusions: Most intra-host variants are organized into distinct single-mutation components that are: well separated from each other, represent genetic distances between viral variants, robust to sampling, reproducible and likely seeded during transmission events. Facilitated by NGS, large components offer a novel evolutionary framework for genetic analysis of intra-host viral populations and understanding transmission, immune escape and drug resistance.

Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in Brazil: 1951-2008

The aim of this study is to determine whether Brazil's economic growth has been constrained by the balance of payments in the long run. The question underpinning the analysis can be expressed as follows: Was economic growth in the period 1951-2008 constrained by the balance of payments? To answer this question, the study employs the externally constrained growth methodology developed by Lima and Carvalho (2009), among others. The main statistical method used is vector error correction. The conclusion is that the rate of economic growth in Brazil was restricted by the external sector in the period concerned, validating the theory of balance-of-payments growth constraint with regard to the economic history of Brazil.