Markov Switching Risk Premium and the term structure of interest rates. Empirical evidence from US post-war interest rates

This paper considers the basic present value model of interest rates under rational expectations with two additional features. First, following McCallum (1994), the model assumes a policy reaction function where changes in the short-term interest rate are determined by the long-short spread. Second, the short-term interest rate and the risk premium processes are characterized by a Markov regime-switching model. Using US post-war interest rate data, this paper finds evidence that a two-regime switching model fits the data better than the basic model. The estimation results also show the presence of two alternative states displaying quite different features.

Unemployment rates and population changes in Spain

Published as an article in: Journal of Applied Economics, 2004, vol. VII, pages 47-76.

Switching Regimes in the Term Structure of Interest Rates During U.S. Post-War: A case for the Lucas proof equilibrium?

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 1, pages 5.

Effect of Cattail (Typha domingensis) Extracts, Leachates, and Selected Phenolic Compounds on Rates of Oxygen Production by Salvinia (Salvinia minima)

Salvinia (Salvinia minima Willd.) is a water fern found in Florida waters, usually associated with Lemna and other small free-floating species. Due to its buoyancy and mat-forming abilities, it is spread by moving waters. In 1994, salvinia was reported to be present in 247 water bodies in the state (out of 451 surveyed public waters, Schardt 1997). It is a small, rapidly growing species that can become a nuisance due to its explosive growth rates and its ability to shade underwater life (Oliver 1993). Any efforts toward management of salvinia populations must consider that, in reasonable amounts, its presence is desirable since it plays an important role in the overall ecosystem balance. New management alternatives need to be explored besides the conventional herbicide treatments; for example, it has been shown that the growth of S. molesta can be inhibited by extracts of the tropical weed parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus) and its purified toxin parthenin (Pande 1994, 1996). We believe that cattail, Typha spp. may be a candidate for control of S. minima infestations. Cattail is an aggressive aquatic plant, and has the ability to expand over areas that weren't previously occupied by other species (Gallardo et al. 1998a and references cited there). In South Florida, T. domingensis is a natural component of the Everglades ecosystem, but in many cases it has become the dominant marsh species, outcompeting other native plants. In Florida public waters, this cattail species is the most dominant emergent species of aquatic plants (Schardt 1997). Several factors enable it to accomplish opportunistic expansion, including size, growth habits, adaptability to changes in the surroundings, and the release of compounds that can prevent the growth and development of other species. We have been concerned in the past with the inhibitory effects of the T. domingensis extracts, and the phenolic compounds mentioned before, towards the growth and propagation of S. minima (Gallardo et al. 1998b). This investigation deals with the impact of cattail materials on the rates of oxygen production of salvinia, as determined through a series of Warburg experiments (Martin et al. 1987, Prindle and Martin 1996).

Estimations, from tagging experiments, of mortality rates and other parameters respecting yellowfin and skipjack tuna

ENGLISH: In this paper, a method of analysis described by Gulland (1963) has been used to estimate the fishing mortality rates of tagged yellowfin and skipjack tuna for specific areas and years. Fishing mortality rates obtained for tagged tunas will also represent those for the entire population from which the tagged fishes were drawn, provided the assumptions used and corrections made for these analyses are valid. Total mortality rates of tagged fishes have also been computed. These are not assumed to be directly equivalent to the total mortality rates of the untagged populations,since tagged fishes are subject to additional types of attrition. These additional sources of mortality are also examined in this study. SPANISH: En el presente trabajo se ha usado un método de análisis descrito por Gulland (1963), para estimar las tasas de mortalidad de pesca de los atunes aleta amarilla y barrilete marcados en áreas y años específicos. Las tasas de mortalidad de pesca obtenidas en atunes marcados representarán también las de toda la población, de la cual fueron extraídos, previendo que las suposiciones usadas y las correcciones hechas para estos análisis sean válidas. Las tasas de mortalidad total de los peces marcados también han sido computadas. No se supone que éstas sean directamente equivalentes a las tasas de mortalidad total de las poblaciones no marcadas, ya que los peces marcados están sujetos también a otros tipos de pérdida. Estas otras causas de mortalidad son examinadas también en el presente estudio.

Effects of commercial fishing regulations on stranding rates of bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus).

Fisheries management actions taken to protect one species can have unintended, and sometimes positive, consequences on other species. For example, regulatory measures to reduce fishing effort in the winter gillnet fishery for spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias) off North Carolina (NC) also led to decreases in the number of bycaught bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus). This study found that a marked decrease in fishing effort for spiny dogfish in NC also corresponded with a marked decrease in winter stranding rates of bottlenose dolphins with entanglement lesions (P= 0.002). Furthermore, from 1997 through 2002, there was a significant positive correlation (r2 = 0.79; P= 0.0003) between seasonal bycatch estimates of bottlenose dolphins in gill nets and rates of stranded dolphins with entanglement lesions. With this information, stranding thresholds were developed that would enable the detection of those increases in bycatch in near real-time. This approach is valuable because updated bycatch estimates from observer data usually have a time-lag of two or more years. Threshold values could be used to detect increases in stranding rates, triggering managers immediately to direct observer effort to areas of potentially high bycatch or to institute mitigation measures. Thus, observer coverage and stranding investigations can be used in concert for more effective fishery management.

Growth rates of Maryland freshwater fish

Growth data obtained from a ten-year collection of scales from Maryland freshwater fish is presented, in this report,in graphs and tables especially designed to be useful for Maryland fishery management. (PDF contains 40 pages)

Estimates of the rates of mortality of yellowfin tuna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean derived from tagging experiments

ENGLISH: Tag release and return data for the Baja California and Gulf of Guayaquil areas were selected for this study because substantial numbers of returns resulted from these releases and because the effects of emigration are small in these areas. The returns of tags per unit of fishing effort for several experiments in each area were used to estimate the coefficients of total mortality and shedding. The coefficient of annual natural mortality was estimated to be less than 2.0, which is in agreement with a previous estimate of 0.8, but does not improve upon it. The estimates for the average coefficients of catchability are 2.02 X 10-3 for the Baja California area and 0.67 X 10-3 for the Gulf of Guayaquil area. SPANISH: Se seleccionaron para este estudio algunos da tos de liberación y retorno de marcas en las áreas de Baja California y el Golfo de Guayaquil debido a que cantidades substanciales de retornos resultaron de estas liberaciones y porque los efectos de migración son pequeños en estas áreas. Los retornos de marcas por unidad de esfuerzo de pesca de varios experimentos en cada área fueron empleados para estimar los coeficientes de mortalidad total y desprendimiento. Se estimó que el coeficiente de mortalidad natural anual fue inferior a 2.0, lo que está de acuerdo con una estimación anterior de 0.8, pero no la mejora. Las estimaciones de los coeficientes promedios de capturabilidad son 2.02 X 10-3 en el área de Baja California y 0.67 X 10-3 en el área del Golfo de Guayaquil. (PDF contains 58 pages.)

Estimates of the rates of shedding of dart tags from yellowfin tuna

ENGLISH: Return data for single-tagged fish and for double-tagged fish which had retained one or both tags were used to estimate the rates of shedding of dart tags from yellowfin tuna. The Type-1 shedding, which occurs immediately after release of the fish, is about 10 percent. The Type-2 shedding is assumed to be constant throughout the life of the fish after tagging; it occurs at an instantaneous rate of about 0.278 per year. SPANISH: Se emplearon los datos de retorno de peces marcados con una sola marca y de peces marcados con doble marca los cuales han retenido una o dos marcas para estimar las tasas de pérdida de las marcas de dardo de atunes aleta amarilla. El Tipo-l de pérdida, que ocurre inmediatamente después de haber liberado el pez, es aproximadamente del 10 por ciento. El Tipo-2 de pérdida se supone que sea constante durante la vida del pez después de marcado; ocurre en una tasa instantánea cerca de 0.278 por año. (PDF contains 24 pages.)