365 resultados para Epidemics
Resumo:
Epidemics of tick-borne encephalitis involving thousands of humans occur annually in the forested regions of Europe and Asia. Despite the importance of this disease, the underlying basis for the development of encephalitis remains undefined. Here, we prove the key role of CD8(+) T-cells in the immunopathology of tick-borne encephalitis, as demonstrated by prolonged survival of SCID or CD8(-/-) mice, following infection, when compared with immunocompetent mice or mice with adoptively transferred CD8(+) T-cells. The results imply that tick-borne encephalitis is an immunopathological disease and that the inflammatory reaction significantly contributes to the fatal outcome of the infection. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Key weather factors determining the occurrence and severity of powdery mildew and yellow rust epidemics on winter wheat were identified. Empirical models were formulated to qualitatively predict a damaging epidemic (>5% severity) and quantitatively predict the disease severity given a damaging epidemic occurred. The disease data used was from field experiments at 12 locations in the UK covering the period from 1994 to 2002 with matching data from weather stations within a 5 km range. Wind in December to February was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic of powdery mildew. Disease severity was best identified by a model with temperature, humidity, and rain in April to June. For yellow rust, the temperature in February to June was the most influential factor for a damaging epidemic as well as for disease severity. The qualitative models identified favorable circumstances for damaging epidemics, but damaging epidemics did not always occur in such circumstances, probably due to other factors such as the availability of initial inoculum and cultivar resistance.
Resumo:
Long distance dispersal (LDD) plays an important role in many population processes like colonization, range expansion, and epidemics. LDD of small particles like fungal spores is often a result of turbulent wind dispersal and is best described by functions with power-law behavior in the tails ("fat tailed"). The influence of fat-tailed LDD on population genetic structure is reported in this article. In computer simulations, the population structure generated by power-law dispersal with exponents in the range of -2 to -1, in distinct contrast to that generated by exponential dispersal, has a fractal structure. As the power-law exponent becomes smaller, the distribution of individual genotypes becomes more self-similar at different scales. Common statistics like G(ST) are not well suited to summarizing differences between the population genetic structures. Instead, fractal and self-similarity statistics demonstrated differences in structure arising from fat-tailed and exponential dispersal. When dispersal is fat tailed, a log-log plot of the Simpson index against distance between subpopulations has an approximately constant gradient over a large range of spatial scales. The fractal dimension D-2 is linearly inversely related to the power-law exponent, with a slope of similar to -2. In a large simulation arena, fat-tailed LDD allows colonization of the entire space by all genotypes whereas exponentially bounded dispersal eventually confines all descendants of a single clonal lineage to a relatively small area.
Resumo:
Influenza virus epidemics occur on an annual basis and cause severe disease in the very young and old. The vaccine administered to high-risk groups is generated by amplifying reassortant viruses, with chronologically relevant viral surface antigens, in eggs. Every 20 years or so, influenza pandemics occur causing widespread fatality in all age groups. These viruses display novel viral surface antigens acquired from a zoonotic source, and vaccination against them poses new issues since production of large amounts of a respiratory virus containing novel surface antigens could be dangerous for those involved in manufacture. To minimise risks, it is advisable to use a virus whose genetic backbone is highly attenuated in man. Traditionally, the A/PR/8/34 strain of virus is used, however, the genetic basis of its attenuation is unclear. Cold-adapted (CA) strains of the influenza virus are all based on the H2N2 subtype, itself a virus with pandemic potential, and again the genetic basis of temperature sensitivity is not yet established. Reverse genetics technology allows us to engineer designer influenza viruses to order. Using this technology, we have been investigating mutations in several different gene segments to effectively attenuate potential vaccine strains allowing the safe production of vaccine to protect against the next pandemic. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
The Group on Earth Observations System of Systems, GEOSS, is a co-ordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We discuss the role of earth-system modelling and data assimilation in transforming earth-system observations into the predictive and status-assessment products required by GEOSS, across many areas of socio-economic interest. First we review recent gains in the predictive skill of operational global earth-system models, on time-scales of days to several seasons. We then discuss recent work to develop from the global predictions a diverse set of end-user applications which can meet GEOSS requirements for information of socio-economic benefit; examples include forecasts of coastal storm surges, floods in large river basins, seasonal crop yield forecasts and seasonal lead-time alerts for malaria epidemics. We note ongoing efforts to extend operational earth-system modelling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition, in support of improved services for air-quality forecasts and for treaty assessment. We next sketch likely GEOSS observational requirements in the coming decades. In concluding, we reflect on the cost of earth observations relative to the modest cost of transforming the observations into information of socio-economic value.
Resumo:
Epidemics of community-acquired Staphylococcus aureus are caused by strains producing high concentrations of phenol-soluble modulins (PSMs). How neutrophils sense PSMs is revealed in this issue of Cell Host & Microbe. Such interactions are key to infection outcome and may be the basis for development of new treatment strategies.
Resumo:
Three Salmonella enterica serovar Orion var. 15+ isolates of distinct provenance were tested for survival in various stress assays. All were less able to survive desiccation than a virulent S. Enreritidis strain, with levels of survival similar to a rpoS mutant of the S. Enteritidis strain, whereas one isolate (F3720) was significantly more acid tolerant. The S. Orion var. 15+ isolates were motile by flagellae and elaborated type-1 and curli-like fimbriae; surface organelles that are considered virulence determinants in Salmonella pathogenesis. Each adhered and invaded HEp-2 tissue culture cells with similar proficiency to the S. Enteritidis control but were significantly less virulent than S. En teritidis in the one-day-old and seven-day-old chick model. Given an oral dose of 1 x 10(3) cfu to one-day-old chicken, S. Orion var. 15+ isolates colonised 25% of liver and spleens examined at 24 h whereas S. Enteritidis colonised 100% of organs by the same with the same dose. Given an oral dose of 1 x 10(7) cfu at seven-day old, S. Orion var. 15+ failed to colonise livers and spleens in any bird examined at 24 h whereas S. Enteritidis colonised 50% of organs by the same with the same dose. Based on the number of internal organs colonised, one of the three S. Orion var. 15+ isolates tested (strain F3720) was significantly more invasive than the other two (B1 and B7). Also, strain F3720 was shed less than either B1 or B7 supporting the concept that there may be an inverse relationship between the ability to colonise deep tissues and to persist in the gut. These data are discussed in the light that S. Orion var. 15+ is associated with sporadic outbreaks of human infection rather than epidemics.
Resumo:
The emergence and spread of infectious diseases reflects the interaction of ecological and economic factors within an adaptive complex system. We review studies that address the role of economic factors in the emergence and spread of infectious diseases and identify three broad themes. First, the process of macro-economic growth leads to environmental encroaching, which is related to the emergence of infectious diseases. Second, there are a number of mutually reinforcing processes associated with the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. For example, the emergence and spread of infectious diseases can cause significant economic damages, which in turn may create the conditions for further disease spread. Also, the existence of a mutually reinforcing relationship between global trade and macroeconomic growth amplifies the emergence/spread of infectious diseases. Third, microeconomic approaches to infectious disease point to the adaptivity of human behavior, which simultaneously shapes the course of epidemics and responds to it. Most of the applied research has been focused on the first two aspects, and to a lesser extent on the third aspect. With respect to the latter, there is a lack of empirical research aimed at characterizing the behavioral component following a disease outbreak. Future research should seek to fill this gap and develop hierarchical econometric models capable of integrating both macro and micro-economic processes into disease ecology.
Resumo:
The incidence and severity of light leaf spot epidemics caused by the ascomycete fungus Pyrenopeziza brassicae on UK oilseed rape crops is increasing. The disease is currently controlled by a combination of host resistance, cultural practices and fungicide applications. We report decreases in sensitivities of modern UK P. brassicae isolates to the azole (imidazole and triazole) class of fungicides. By cloning and sequencing the P. brassicae CYP51 (PbCYP51) gene, encoding the azole target sterol 14α-demethylase, we identified two non-synonymous mutations encoding substitutions G460S and S508T associated with reduced azole sensitivity. We confirmed the impact of the encoded PbCYP51 changes on azole sensitivity and protein activity by heterologous expression in a Saccharomyces cerevisiae mutant YUG37::erg11 carrying a controllable promoter of native CYP51 expression. In addition, we identified insertions in the predicted regulatory regions of PbCYP51 in isolates with reduced azole sensitivity. The presence of these insertions was associated with enhanced transcription of PbCYP51 in response to sub-inhibitory concentrations of the azole fungicide tebuconazole. Genetic analysis of in vitro crosses of sensitive and resistant isolates confirmed the impact of PbCYP51 alterations in coding and regulatory sequences on a reduced sensitivity phenotype, as well as identifying a second major gene at another locus contributing to resistance in some isolates. The least sensitive field isolates carry combinations of upstream insertions and non-synonymous mutations, suggesting PbCYP51 evolution is on-going and the progressive decline in azole sensitivity of UK P. brassicae populations will continue. The implications for the future control of light leaf spot are discussed.
Resumo:
The ascomycete Venturia inaequalis causes annual epidemics of apple scab worldwide. Scab development is reduced in mixed cultivar orchards compared with monocultures. To use mixtures in commercial production, we need to understand how the population of scab changes in a mixed orchard and how likely a super race, with virulence factors overcoming multiple resistance factors in the mixed orchard, is to emerge and become dominant. We used short sequence repeat (SSR) markers to investigate the temporal change of scab populations in two mixed cultivar orchards in the UK to infer the likelihood of emergence of a scab super race. There were no significant differences between the populations at the two sampling times (six or seven years apart) in either of the two mixed orchards. In one of the orchards apple scab populations on different cultivars were significantly different and the differences did not diminish over time. These results suggest that it is not inevitable that a super race of V. inaequalis will become dominant during the lifetime of a commercial apple orchard.
Complexity and anisotropy in host morphology make populations less susceptible to epidemic outbreaks
Resumo:
One of the challenges in epidemiology is to account for the complex morphological structure of hosts such as plant roots, crop fields, farms, cells, animal habitats and social networks, when the transmission of infection occurs between contiguous hosts. Morphological complexity brings an inherent heterogeneity in populations and affects the dynamics of pathogen spread in such systems. We have analysed the influence of realistically complex host morphology on the threshold for invasion and epidemic outbreak in an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) epidemiological model. We show that disorder expressed in the host morphology and anisotropy reduces the probability of epidemic outbreak and thus makes the system more resistant to epidemic outbreaks. We obtain general analytical estimates for minimally safe bounds for an invasion threshold and then illustrate their validity by considering an example of host data for branching hosts (salamander retinal ganglion cells). Several spatial arrangements of hosts with different degrees of heterogeneity have been considered in order to separately analyse the role of shape complexity and anisotropy in the host population. The estimates for invasion threshold are linked to morphological characteristics of the hosts that can be used for determining the threshold for invasion in practical applications.
Resumo:
Os fatores de risco clássicos para o desenvolvimento de doença isquêmica do coração (DIC) explicam menos de 50% da queda na mortalidade observada desde 1950. A transição em curso, do paradigma degenerativo para o inflamatório/infeccioso, requer nova interpretação causal das tendências temporais. Este é um estudo ecológico, baseado em dados dos Estados Unidos, que mostra, em homens e mulheres, uma associação entre a distribuição etária da mortalidade por influenza e pneumonia (I&P) associada à pandemia de influenza de 1918-1919 na faixa dos 10 aos 49 anos e a distribuição da mortalidade por DIC, entre 1920 e 1985, em sobreviventes das coortes de nascimento correspondentes. Mostra ainda uma correlação negativa significativa (r = -0,68, p = 0,042) entre o excesso de mortalidade por I&P acumulado em epidemias entre 1931-1940 (utilizado como indicador da persistência da circulação de vírus H1N1 aliada à vulnerabilidade à infecção) e a ordem do início do declínio na mortalidade por DIC, em nove divisões geográficas dos Estados Unidos. Os dados sugerem, à luz do conhecimento biológico atual, que a pandemia de influenza de 1918 (e as que se seguiram até 1957) pudesse ter tido papel determinante na epidemia de mortalidade por DIC registrada no século XX.
Resumo:
O cancro cítrico, causado pela bactéria Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri Valterin et alii 1995, é uma doença conhecida mundialmente e sempre constituiu séria ameaça para a citricultura brasileira. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi analisar as condições climáticas do Estado de São Paulo e desenvolver mapas de zonas de maior risco de epidemias de cancro cítrico. Foram utilizados dados meteorológicos referentes aos anos de 2002 a 2005, os quais foram baseados no modelo de previsão desenvolvido por Campbell & Madden (4) e Hau & Kranz (10). A freqüência dos dados foi horária e quando alguma estação apresentava falha, esses eram extrapolados da estação mais próxima. Foram contabilizados os índices de favorabilidade e posteriormente calculadas as porcentagens de dias favoráveis à ocorrência da doença no período de um ano. A partir destas informações, foram gerados os mapas temáticos do Estado de São Paulo, com a distribuição espacial da porcentagem de dias favoráveis à ocorrência de cancro cítrico. A região Noroeste do Estado foi a que apresentou a maior porcentagem de dias favoráveis à ocorrência de cancro cítrico.
Resumo:
In recent years, the biosafety has been made possible a new look which are based the conceptions of health and illness process, as well as human needs. This new vision is focused on health vigilance that is referenced specifically in this study to the worker s health. The health of workers is essential for the prevention and control of epidemics and outbreaks of diseases as well as emerging and reemerging diseases. The present study wants to show the importance of biosafety measures for health workers, showing them through the concepts in their daily work. It is also to direct the use of biosafety measures in the care of oncology and hematology patients care, because of its infection susceptibility. OBJECTIVES: To analyze the conceptions of health workers in the biosafety pratice to the patients in oncological and hematological treatment in an oncological institution in Natal / RN, as well as make a socio-demographic profile of these workers and to know their difficulties to adequate biosafety measures. METODOLOGIA: The research is exploratory descriptive with qualitative approach, using the technique of oral history. The use of this technique is justified for the possibility of analyze the conceptions of health workers in the face of biosafety measures. From the definition of analysis categories that have emerged in the study. The categories were: daily work, education, occupational risk and onco-hematological care. The research population was the health workers who provide care to patients in oncological and hematological treatment. The study was conducted in the League against Cancer, in Natal / RN, specifically in the unit Luiz Antonio Hospital. Data collections were conducted from June to August of 2011 and were interviewed sixteen employees who assist in oncology and hematology. Structured interviews were conducted in three shifts, given the prospects of expanding the possibilities of analysis of the biosafety concepts. After data collection, the interviews were analyzed qualitatively by the technique of oral history. This genre, thematic oral history is a modern resource used for preparation of documents, files and studies concerning the social experience of people and groups with the construction of a script prior to the interview moment (MEIHY, 2002). ANALYSIS OF INFORMATION: It was made a reflection about the concepts and practices of professionals who take care of patients in oncology and hematology as well as its relation to biosafety measures. The speech of employees revealed that the adoption has been very supportive of these standards, although some have been highlighted gaps in the understanding of employees in relation to biosafety and the proposed categories. CONCLUSION: The analysis of information showed that biosafety has been cited by employees as an immeasurable benefit to safety and occupational health. And the strengths marks in their understanding were: the excellence of care and safety in occupational diseases risk reduction and infections resulting from their work activities, despite some difficulties in adopting appropriate biosafety standards
Resumo:
Several epidemics marked the lives of individuals and communities in all historical periods, and a prime example is leprosy, infectious disease marked by stigma, prejudice and social exclusion. In the past, the compulsory isolation of patients with leprosy caused serious social and psychological problems, resulting in the separation and the partial or total disruption of the family relationship. Children deprived of this living, removed often inhumanely, were kept and bred in preventoriums / educational establishments. This study aimed to: rescue the oral history of life of the children of leprosy patients that were built in preventorium Osvaldo Cruz, Natal, Rio Grande do Norte; develop a contextual analysis about these children; know the life trajectory of children of leprosy patients institutionalized in preventoriums / educational establishments; produce a documentary on the history of life of children of parents separated by leprosy; forming MORHAN of Rio Grande do Norte state; and implement the I Meeting of MORHAN of Rio Grande do Norte state. This is an exploratory and descriptive study, with a qualitative approach, approved by the ERC No. 024/024/2012 Liga Norteriograndense Contra o Câncer. We used the contributions of the method and technique of oral history of life as methodological reference. We interviewed 10 individuals egress from preventorium Osvaldo Cruz in Natal/RN, sons of former patients proven to be residents in the city, of both sexes, older than 18, with cognitive, intellectual and emotional conditions preserved. The analysis of the histories obtained from collaborators was performed in the light of Thematic Content Analysis. The results and discussions are presented through two articles which meet the proposed objectives. The first, called Contextual Analysis on the children of leprosy patients in preventoriums aimed to record the phenomenon of children of leprosy patients in preventorium through four contextual levels, which identified the need to broaden the debate on public policy in the field of leprosy as a way to enable more effective measures to propagate in the search for harm reduction and direct consequences resulting from stigma and marginalization around patients and their healthy children, egress from preventoriums. The second, Leprosy and the denial of history: the story of separated children , aimed to know the life trajectory of children of leprosy patients who were institutionalized in preventoriums / educational establishments. In this article, we discuss the research question through the establishment of three main themes: 1. Losses and damages: disintegration and reintegration into the family and denied childhood; 2. Unforgettable: remarkable things you do not forget; and 3. Expectancy in living new situations: in search of other paths and destinations. These thematic axis highlighted the negative implications for the lives of the subjects, arising from the separation of their parents, leprosy patients at the time of compulsory isolation; however, has also been shown that this separation was not decisive in their life histories, once they have succeeded in providing a new sense of these experiences and lead their lives with dignity and fortitude. It was concluded that these children demonstrated resilience as form of defense and fighting stigma and prejudice, being able to reinvent themselves and build new paths and destinations