System Dynamics and Scenario Planning: Implementation Challenges

In this paper we discuss key implementation challenges of a systems approach that combines System Dynamics, Scenario Planning and Qualitative Data Analysis methods in tackling a complex problem. We present the methods and the underlying framework. We then detail the main difficulties encountered in designing and planning the Scenario Planning workshop and how they were overcome, such as finding and involving the stakeholders and customising the process to fit within timing constraints. After presenting the results from this application, we argue that the consultants or system analysts need to engage with the stakeholders as process facilitators and not as system experts in order to gain commitment, trust and to improve information sharing. They also need be ready to adapt their tools and processes as well as their own thinking for more effective complex problem solving.

Architecture research and hardware implementation on simplified neural computing system for face identification

This paper describes a special-purpose neural computing system for face identification. The system architecture and hardware implementation are introduced in detail. An algorithm based on biomimetic pattern recognition has been embedded. For the total 1200 tests for face identification, the false rejection rate is 3.7% and the false acceptance rate is 0.7%.

An Implementation of Mermera: A Shared Memory System that Mixes Coherence with Non-coherence

Coherent shared memory is a convenient, but inefficient, method of inter-process communication for parallel programs. By contrast, message passing can be less convenient, but more efficient. To get the benefits of both models, several non-coherent memory behaviors have recently been proposed in the literature. We present an implementation of Mermera, a shared memory system that supports both coherent and non-coherent behaviors in a manner that enables programmers to mix multiple behaviors in the same program[HS93]. A programmer can debug a Mermera program using coherent memory, and then improve its performance by selectively reducing the level of coherence in the parts that are critical to performance. Mermera permits a trade-off of coherence for performance. We analyze this trade-off through measurements of our implementation, and by an example that illustrates the style of programming needed to exploit non-coherence. We find that, even on a small network of workstations, the performance advantage of non-coherence is compelling. Raw non-coherent memory operations perform 20-40~times better than non-coherent memory operations. An example application program is shown to run 5-11~times faster when permitted to exploit non-coherence. We conclude by commenting on our use of the Isis Toolkit of multicast protocols in implementing Mermera.

A simulation-based design method to transfer surface mount RF system to flip-chip die implementation

The flip-chip technology is a high chip density solution to meet the demand for very large scale integration design. For wireless sensor node or some similar RF applications, due to the growing requirements for the wearable and implantable implementations, flip-chip appears to be a leading technology to realize the integration and miniaturization. In this paper, flip-chip is considered as part of the whole system to affect the RF performance. A simulation based design is presented to transfer the surface mount PCB board to the flip-chip die package for the RF applications. Models are built by Q3D Extractor to extract the equivalent circuit based on the parasitic parameters of the interconnections, for both bare die and wire-bonding technologies. All the parameters and the PCB layout and stack-up are then modeled in the essential parts' design of the flip-chip RF circuit. By implementing simulation and optimization, a flip-chip package is re-designed by the parameters given by simulation sweep. Experimental results fit the simulation well for the comparison between pre-optimization and post-optimization of the bare die package's return loss performance. This design method could generally be used to transfer any surface mount PCB to flip-chip package for the RF systems or to predict the RF specifications of a RF system using the flip-chip technology.

Real-Time and Data-Driven Operation Optimization and Knowledge Discovery for an Enterprise Information System

An enterprise information system (EIS) is an integrated data-applications platform characterized by diverse, heterogeneous, and distributed data sources. For many enterprises, a number of business processes still depend heavily on static rule-based methods and extensive human expertise. Enterprises are faced with the need for optimizing operation scheduling, improving resource utilization, discovering useful knowledge, and making data-driven decisions.

This thesis research is focused on real-time optimization and knowledge discovery that addresses workflow optimization, resource allocation, as well as data-driven predictions of process-execution times, order fulfillment, and enterprise service-level performance. In contrast to prior work on data analytics techniques for enterprise performance optimization, the emphasis here is on realizing scalable and real-time enterprise intelligence based on a combination of heterogeneous system simulation, combinatorial optimization, machine-learning algorithms, and statistical methods.

On-demand digital-print service is a representative enterprise requiring a powerful EIS.We use real-life data from Reischling Press, Inc. (RPI), a digit-print-service provider (PSP), to evaluate our optimization algorithms.

In order to handle the increase in volume and diversity of demands, we first present a high-performance, scalable, and real-time production scheduling algorithm for production automation based on an incremental genetic algorithm (IGA). The objective of this algorithm is to optimize the order dispatching sequence and balance resource utilization. Compared to prior work, this solution is scalable for a high volume of orders and it provides fast scheduling solutions for orders that require complex fulfillment procedures. Experimental results highlight its potential benefit in reducing production inefficiencies and enhancing the productivity of an enterprise.

We next discuss analysis and prediction of different attributes involved in hierarchical components of an enterprise. We start from a study of the fundamental processes related to real-time prediction. Our process-execution time and process status prediction models integrate statistical methods with machine-learning algorithms. In addition to improved prediction accuracy compared to stand-alone machine-learning algorithms, it also performs a probabilistic estimation of the predicted status. An order generally consists of multiple series and parallel processes. We next introduce an order-fulfillment prediction model that combines advantages of multiple classification models by incorporating flexible decision-integration mechanisms. Experimental results show that adopting due dates recommended by the model can significantly reduce enterprise late-delivery ratio. Finally, we investigate service-level attributes that reflect the overall performance of an enterprise. We analyze and decompose time-series data into different components according to their hierarchical periodic nature, perform correlation analysis,

and develop univariate prediction models for each component as well as multivariate models for correlated components. Predictions for the original time series are aggregated from the predictions of its components. In addition to a significant increase in mid-term prediction accuracy, this distributed modeling strategy also improves short-term time-series prediction accuracy.

In summary, this thesis research has led to a set of characterization, optimization, and prediction tools for an EIS to derive insightful knowledge from data and use them as guidance for production management. It is expected to provide solutions for enterprises to increase reconfigurability, accomplish more automated procedures, and obtain data-driven recommendations or effective decisions.