Elections and stock market volatility: evidence in OECD countries and developing countries

Este trabalho estuda se existe impacto na volatilidade dos mercados de ações em torno das eleições nacionais nos países da OCDE e nos países em Desenvolvimento. Ao mesmo tempo, pretende, através de variáveis explicativas, descobrir os fatores responsáveis por esse impacto. Foi descoberta evidência que o impacto das eleições na volatilidade dos mercados de ações é maior nos países em Desenvolvimento. Enquanto as eleições antecipadas, a mudança na orientação política e o tamanho da população foram os factores que explicaram o aumento da volatilidade nos países da OCDE, o nível democrático, número de partidos da coligação governamental e a idade dos mercados foram os factores explicativos para os países em Desenvolvimento.

Betting on winner: the effect of local elections on corporate political activity outcomes

How can managers successfully access political rents by way of corporate political strategies (CPA)? Existing research has suggested several endogenous factors that correlate with CPA outcomes. I offer a more robust solution to this problem. Drawing on insights from the perspective of CPA as exchanges between firms and political decision-makers, and from the special interest politics of political economy, I develop and test a causal mechanism that links local elections, legislative bargaining and access to political rents at the national level. I conducted a natural experiment using regression discontinuity design and propensity score matching in municipal elections in Brazil to show that firms enjoy superior access to subsidized financing from the state-owned national development bank (BNDES) when they decide to invest in municipalities whose winning mayoral candidate is coalition-aligned with the national ruler. This effect fades away fades away as the level of competition in the local election decreases. The evidence implies that when managers bet on national coalition-aligned winners in close local elections, they positively affect CPA outcomes. I extend the exchange-based typology of corporate political strategies by offering a novel possibility of targeting voters with financial inducements, which I call a private local development strategy. Finally, these results show that firms exchange their project-execution capabilities for superior access to subsidized financing.

Brazil’s 2014 presidential elections: the interconnection between election news and stock market behavior

This study researches whether there has been abnormal stock market behaviour in Brazil as a consequence of election news (observed via opinion polls), regarding the last Brazilian presidential election, held in October 2014. Via applying event study methodology, the research on the Ibovespa and Petrobras suggests that events in which Rousseff was gaining in share have been subject to negative abnormal returns, and events where Rousseff was loosing in share have led to positive abnormal returns. Moreover, volatility has been significantly elevated during the election period and volume has been found to have slightly increased.

Pricing the cost of an election: the impact of the 2014 elections on stock markets

Qual o efeito de eleições em ativos reais? É possível mensurar diretamente a diferença de preços mesmo que só possamos enxergar um dos resultados potenciais? Essa dissertação estima esses efeitos utilizando metodologia baseada em opções sobre ações. O modelo aqui desenvolvido adaptção tradicional Black-Scholes para incorporar dois novos parâmetros: um salto no preço do ativo perfeitamente antecipado e uma série de probabilidades diárias refletindo as crenças sobre quem venceria a corrida eleitoral. Aplicamos esse método para o caso brasileiro das Eleições Presidenciais de 2014 e a Petrobras - uma importante companhia do setor petrolífero do país -utilizando dados de bolsa do segundo turno das eleições. Os resultados encontrados mostram uma diferença de 65-77% para o valor da companhia, dependendo de quem vencesse nas urnas. Isso é equivalente a aproximadamente 2.5% do PIB de 2014 do país.

Antecedentes sobre "el consumo" aportados para el documento presentado por CELADE al Symposium on environmental sciences in developing countries", Nairobi, Kenya 21-23 de febrero de 1974

Incluye Bibliografía

EFFECTS OF EMERGENCY IN BIOSTIMULANT SEEDLING OF PASSION FRUIT ROXINHO OF KENYA

The increase in market demand for fresh fruits along with the high price of passion fruit juice in domestic and international markets has increased the interest in fruit, especially the purple passion fruit in the center south of the country seeking to export. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of plant growth regulator on the emergence and development of seedlings of passion 'Roxinho of Kenya' when propagated sexually. The treatments consisted of concentrations of commercial product Stimulate (R): control (no biostimulant); 6; 12; 18; 24 and 30 mL. kg(-1) of seed. It were evaluated the percentage of seedling emergence, number of leaves, aerial part dry weight, stem and root (g), root length (mm), diameter and stem length (mm), leaf area and chlorophyll 'a' and 'b'. The application of bio-stimulant in doses of 6 and 12 mL. kg(-1) promotes increased percentage of seedling emergence of Passiflora edulis Sims in a shorter time. The use of it also promotes the development of seedlings, with better results for the dose of 12 and 24 mL. kg(-1) treated seeds.

Echinococcus Infections in Man and Animals in Kenya

1. Hydatid cysts are found in more than 30 per cent of all cattle, sheep and goats in Kenya, but the disease is prevalent in man only in the semi-desert area of Turkana. Up to the time of the present investigation the life-cycle of the parasite in East Africa had not been studied, but it was suggested that wild carnivores, such as hyenas and jackals, might be the main hosts of the adult worms. 2. One hundred and forty-three carnivores, representing 23 species, have been examined. Echinococcus adults were found in 27 out of 43 domestic dogs (Canis familiaris), in three out of four hunting dogs (Lycaon pictus), in one out of nine jackals (Thos mesomelas), and in three out of 19 hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta). 3. A detailed morphological study was made of the Kenya material. After comparison with specimens from other parts of the world, it was concluded that the only species occurring in Kenya was E. granulosus, but it is possible that the minor morphological and biological differences are evidence of distinct strains. Further laboratory studies are necessary to compare the parasite from man and animals in different parts of Kenya with material from elsewhere. 4. A search was made for larval hydatids in 92 ungulates representing 18 species, and in a miscellaneous collection of nearly 2,000 rodents and primates representing a further 31 species. Only one animal was positive, a wildebeest (Gorgon taurinus). 5. The infections in the wild carnivores were all very light; only domestic dogs were heavily infected. It is concluded that the main cycle of transmission in Kenya is between dogs and domestic livestock. 6. Turkana tribesmen are the most heavily infected people in Kenya, either because the strain of parasite is more pathogenic to man in that area, or, more probably, because of the intimate contact between children and the large number of infected dogs. A particularly dangerous custom in the area is the use of dogs to clean the face and anal regions of babies when they vomit or have diarrhea. No satisfactory explanation can be given for the rarity of the disease in man in many of the other areas of Kenya where hydatids are very common in domestic animals. 7. The control of the disease will depend upon an active health-education campaign, together with the destruction of all unregistered dogs and improvement in meat hygiene.

An Assessment of Local Peoples Opinions of Community Conservation Initiatives in Relation to Livelihood Strategies in Kenya

Abstract This paper analyzed the changing livelihood strategies in Kenya, and their cultural impacts via a literature review. I then combined this understanding with the data I collected while in Kenya to examine the opinions local people have of community conservation initiatives, based on their changing livelihood strategies. I expected to find that the following factors would have an affect on the opinions local community members have of community conservation initiatives: livelihood strategy, gender, ethnicity, whether or not they believe the distribution of benefits coming from wildlife conservation is equitable, what issues they would like to see improved within community conservation initiatives, and their overall satisfaction with community conservation initiatives. Through correlation tests done using SPSS (Statistical Package for Social Scientists) I found that all five of these factors do influence the perceptions local community members have of community conservation initiatives within the Amboseli region in Kenya.

Elections and Democracy in Brazil: Victor Nunes Leal and the 1945 Transition

This article discusses the necessary conditions for a democratic government to prevail, with the study Coronelismo: the Municipality and Representative Government in Brazil as the point of departure. The article seeks to identify the book's causal explanations for the emergence of democracy, and more precisely for regimes in which governments lose elections. Why were elections not truly competitive over the course of the Empire and the First Republic? Why did they change after the fall of the Estado Novo? Nunes Leal was one of the few Brazilian authors to explicitly tackle this challenge.

Dry spell mitigation to upgrade semi-arid rainfed agriculture : Water harvesting and soil nutrient management for smallholder maize cultivation in Machakos, Kenya

Improvements in on-farm water and soil fertility management through water harvesting may prove key to up-grade smallholder farming systems in dry sub-humid and semi-arid sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). The currently experienced yield levels are usually less than 1 t ha-1, i.e., 3-5 times lower than potential levels obtained by commercial farmers and researchers for similar agro-hydrological conditions. The low yield levels are ascribed to the poor crop water availability due to variable rainfall, losses in on-farm water balance and inherently low soil nutrient levels. To meet an increased food demand with less use of water and land in the region, requires farming systems that provide more yields per water unit and/or land area in the future. This thesis presents the results of a project on water harvesting system aiming to upgrade currently practised water management for maize (Zea mays, L.) in semi-arid SSA. The objectives were to a) quantify dry spell occurrence and potential impact in currently practised small-holder grain production systems, b) test agro-hydrological viability and compare maize yields in an on-farm experiment using combinations supplemental irrigation (SI) and fertilizers for maize, and c) estimate long-term changes in water balance and grain yields of a system with SI compared to farmers currently practised in-situ water harvesting. Water balance changes and crop growth were simulated in a 20-year perspective with models MAIZE1&2. Dry spell analyses showed that potentially yield-limiting dry spells occur at least 75% of seasons for 2 locations in semi-arid East Africa during a 20-year period. Dry spell occurrence was more frequent for crop cultivated on soil with low water-holding capacity than on high water-holding capacity. The analysis indicated large on-farm water losses as deep percolation and run-off during seasons despite seasonal crop water deficits. An on-farm experiment was set up during 1998-2001 in Machakos district, semi-arid Kenya. Surface run-off was collected and stored in a 300m3 earth dam. Gravity-fed supplemental irrigation was carried out to a maize field downstream of the dam. Combinations of no irrigation (NI), SI and 3 levels of N fertilizers (0, 30, 80 kg N ha-1) were applied. Over 5 seasons with rainfall ranging from 200 to 550 mm, the crop with SI and low nitrogen fertilizer gave 40% higher yields (**) than the farmers’ conventional in-situ water harvesting system. Adding only SI or only low nitrogen did not result in significantly different yields. Accounting for actual ability of a storage system and SI to mitigate dry spells, it was estimated that a farmer would make economic returns (after deduction of household consumption) between year 2-7 after investment in dam construction depending on dam sealant and labour cost used. Simulating maize growth and site water balance in a system of maize with SI increased annual grain yield with 35 % as a result of timely applications of SI. Field water balance changes in actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and deep percolation were insignificant with SI, although the absolute amount of ETa increased with 30 mm y-1 for crop with SI compared to NI. The dam water balance showed 30% productive outtake as SI of harvested water. Large losses due to seepage and spill-flow occurred from the dam. Water productivity (WP, of ETa) for maize with SI was on average 1 796 m3 per ton grain, and for maize without SI 2 254 m3 per ton grain, i.e, a decerase of WP with 25%. The water harvesting system for supplemental irrigation of maize was shown to be both biophysically and economically viable. However, adoption by farmers will depend on other factors, including investment capacity, know-how and legislative possibilities. Viability of increased water harvesting implementation in a catchment scale needs to be assessed so that other down-stream uses of water remains uncompromised.

Assessing poverty with survey data. Uni-dimensional, multidimensional and resilience poverty analysis in Kenya

Traditionally Poverty has been measured by a unique indicator, income, assuming this was the most relevant dimension of poverty. Sen’s approach has dramatically changed this idea shedding light over the existence of many more dimensions and over the multifaceted nature of poverty; poverty cannot be represented by a unique indicator that only can evaluate a specific aspect of poverty. This thesis tracks an ideal path along with the evolution of the poverty analysis. Starting from the unidimensional analysis based on income and consumptions, this research enter the world of multidimensional analysis. After reviewing the principal approaches, the Foster and Alkire method is critically analyzed and implemented over data from Kenya. A step further is moved in the third part of the thesis, introducing a new approach to multidimensional poverty assessment: the resilience analysis.

Reproduction and maternal health care among young women in Kenya: geographic and socio-economic determinants

Many factors influence the propensity of young women to seek appropriate maternal healthcare, and they need to be considered when analyzing these women’s reproductive behavior. This study aimed to contribute to the analysis concerning Kenyan young women’s determinants on maternal healthcare-seeking behavior for the 5 years preceding the 2008/9 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey. The specific objectives were to: investigate the individual and contextual variables that may explain maternal healthcare habits; measure the individual, household and community effect on maternal healthcare attitudes in young women; assess the link between young women’s characteristics and the use of facilities for maternal healthcare; find a relationship between young women’s behavior and the community where they live; examine how the role of the local presence of healthcare facilities influences reproductive behavior, and if the specificity of services offered by healthcare facilities affects their inclination to use healthcare facilities, and measure the geographic differences that influence the propensity to seek appropriate maternal healthcare. The analysis of factors associated with maternal healthcare-seeking behavior for young women in Kenya was investigated using multilevel models. We performed three major analyses, which concerned the individual and contextual determinants influencing antenatal care (discussed in Part 6), delivery care (Part 7), and postnatal care (Part 8). Our results show that there is a significant variation in antenatal, delivery and postnatal care between communities, even if the majority of variability is explained by individual characteristics. There are differences at the women’s level on the probability of receiving antenatal care and delivering in a healthcare facility instead of at home. Moreover, community factors and availability of healthcare facilities on the territory are also crucial in influencing young women’s behavior. Therefore, policies addressed to youth’s reproductive health should also consider geographic inequalities and different types of barriers in access to healthcare facilities.

Amphibian biodiversity in Taita Hills, Kenya

Species richness varies greatly across geographical regions. Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM) of Kenya and Tanzania is one of the global biodiversity hotspots. Despite this, high species diversity the explanatory factors have remained largely unexplored. Herein, this study first investigated amphibian species richness patterns in the EAM and particularly the reasons for the low richness in Taita Hills. It tested the hypothesis that the low richness is due to past forest loss or other factors. The results demonstrated that the regional species richness pattern was influenced largely by mean annual rainfall and not forest area. Secondly, using the 26 currently recorded amphibians in the Taita Hills, it investigated the relationship between amphibian species composition along anthropogenic habitat disturbance and elevation gradients. It tested the hypothesis that sites with similar environmental characteristics (temperature, rainfall and elevation), in close proximity and with similar disturbance levels (habitat types) harbour similar species composition. It was found that amphibian species composition differed in terms of elevation and was explained by both temperature and rainfall. Therefore sites with similar environmental characteristics, disturbance levels and in close proximity geographically have similar amphibian composition. Thirdly, diagnostic characters, distribution, basic life history characteristics and conservation status of all currently known amphibians in the Taita Hills were provided. Finally, first long term life history and ecological characteristics of a brevicipitid frog (Callulina sp) was provided. The results showed that this frog abundance and distribution is influenced mainly by mean monthly temperature, breeds during the long dry season and exhibit parental care. Results of this study strongly recommend increasing indigenous forest cover in order to enhance the conservation of the endemic indigenous forest associated amphibians such as Callulina sp, Boulengerula taitana and Boulengerula niedeni.