Study of the inter-annual variability of particle vertical fluxes in two moorings in the Ross Sea (Antarctica)

The most ocean - atmosphere exchanges take place in polar environments due to the low temperatures which favor the absorption processes of atmospheric gases, in particular CO2. For this reason, the alterations of biogeochemical cycles in these areas can have a strong impact on the global climate. With the aim of contributing to the definition of the mechanisms regulating the biogeochemical fluxes we have analyzed the particles collected in the Ross Sea in different years (ROSSMIZE, BIOSESO 1 and 2, ROAVERRS and ABIOCLEAR projects) in two sites (mooring A and B). So it has been developed a more efficient method to prepare sediment trap samples for the analyses. We have also processed satellite data of sea ice, chlorophyll a and diatoms concentration. At both sites, in each year considered, there was a high seasonal and inter-annual variability of biogeochemical fluxes closely correlated with sea ice cover and primary productivity. The comparison between the samples collected at mooring A and B in 2008 highlighted the main differences between these two sites. Particle fluxes at Mooring A, located in a polynia area, are higher than mooring B ones and they happen about a month before. In the mooring B area it has been possible to correlate the particles fluxes to the ice concentration anomalies and with the atmospheric changes in response to El Niño Southern Oscillations. In 1996 and 1999, years subjected to La Niña, the concentrations of sea ice in this area have been less than in 1998, year subjected to El Niño. Inverse correlation was found for 2005 and 2008. In the mooring A area significant differences in mass and biogenic fluxes during 2005 and 2008 has been recorded. This allowed to underline the high variability of lateral advection processes and to connect them to the physical forcing.

Response of nutrient cycles of an old-growth montane forest in Ecuador to experimental low-level nutrient amendments

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) depositions are expected to increase in the tropicsrnas a consequence of increasing human activities in the next decades. Furthermore, a possiblernshortened El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle might come along with more frequent calcium (Ca)rndepositions on the eastern slope of the Ecuadorian Andes originating from Saharan dust. It isrncrucial to understand the response of the old-growth montane forest in Ecuador to increasedrnnutrient deposition to predict the further development of this megadiverse ecosystem.rnI studied experimental additions of N, P, N+P and Ca to the forest and an untreatedrncontrol, all in a fourfold replicated randomized block design. These experiments were conductedrnin the framework of a collaborative research effort, the NUtrient Manipulation EXperimentrn(NUMEX). I collected litter leachate, mineral soil solution (0.15 and 0.30 m depths), throughfallrnand fine litterfall samples and determined N, P and Ca concentrations and fluxes. This approachrnalso allowed me to assess whether N, P and/or Ca are limiting nutrients for forest growth.rnFurthermore, I evaluated the response of fine root biomass, leaf area index, leaf area and specificrnleaf area, tree diameter growth and basal area increment contributed from a cooperating group inrnthe Ca applied and control treatments.rnDuring the observation period of 16 months after the first fertilizer application, less thanrn10, 1 and 5% of the applied N, P and Ca, respectively, leached below the organic layer whichrncontained almost all roots but no significant leaching losses occurred to the deeper mineral soil.rnDeposited N, P and Ca from the atmosphere in dry and wet form were, on balance, retained in therncanopy in the control treatment. Retention of N, P and Ca in the canopy in their respectiverntreatments was reduced resulting in higher concentrations and fluxes of N, P and Ca inrnthroughfall and litterfall. Up to 2.5% of the applied N and 2% of the applied P and Ca werernrecycled to the soil with throughfall. Fluxes of N, P and Ca in throughfall+litterfall were higher inrnthe fertilized treatments than in the control; up to 20, 5 and 25% of the applied N, P and Ca,rnrespectively, were recycled to the soil with throughfall+litterfall.rnIn the Ca-applied plots, fine root biomass decreased significantly. Also the leaf area of thernfour most common tree species tended to decrease and the specific leaf area increasedrnsignificantly in Graffenrieda emarginata Triana, the most common tree species in the study area.rnThese changes are known plant responses to reduced nutrient stress. Reduced aluminium (Al)rntoxicity as an explanation of the Ca effect was unlikely, because of almost complete organocomplexationrnof Al and molar Ca:Al concentration ratios in solution above the toxicity threshold.rnThe results suggest that N, P and Ca co-limit the forest ecosystem functioning in thernnorthern Andean montane forests in line with recent assumptions in which different ecosystemrncompartments and even different phenological stages may show different nutrient limitationsrn(Kaspari et al. 2008). I conclude that (1) the expected elevated N and P deposition will bernretained in the ecosystem, at least in the short term and hence, quality of river water will not bernendangered and (2) increased Ca input will reduce nutrient stress of the forest.

High-resolution reconstruction of Holocene climate variability and environmental changes in the North Pacific using bivalve shells

Bivalve mollusk shells are useful tools for multi-species and multi-proxy paleoenvironmental reconstructions with a high temporal and spatial resolution. Past environmental conditions can be reconstructed from shell growth and stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios, which present an archive for temperature, freshwater fluxes and primary productivity. The purpose of this thesis is the reconstruction of Holocene climate and environmental variations in the North Pacific with a high spatial and temporal resolution using marine bivalve shells. This thesis focuses on several different Holocene time periods and multiple regions in the North Pacific, including: Japan, Alaska (AK), British Columbia (BC) and Washington State, which are affected by the monsoon, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Such high-resolution proxy data from the marine realm of mid- and high-latitudes are still rare. Therefore, this study contributes to the optimization and verification of climate models. However, before using bivalves for environmental reconstructions and seasonality studies, life history traits must be well studied to temporally align and interpret the geochemical record. These calibration studies are essential to ascertain the usefulness of selected bivalve species as paleoclimate proxy archives. This work focuses on two bivalve species, the short-lived Saxidomus gigantea and the long-lived Panopea abrupta. Sclerochronology and oxygen isotope ratios of different shell layers of P. abrupta were studied in order to test the reliability of this species as a climate archive. The annual increments are clearly discernable in umbonal shell portions and the increments widths should be measured in these shell portions. A reliable reconstruction of paleotemperatures may only be achieved by exclusively sampling the outer shell layer of multiple contemporaneous specimens. Life history traits (e.g., timing of growth line formation, duration of the growing season and growth rates) and stable isotope ratios of recent S. gigantea from AK and BC were analyzed in detail. Furthermore, a growth-temperature model based on S. gigantea shells from Alaska was established, which provides a better understanding of the hydrological changes related to the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC). This approach allows the independent measurement of water temperature and salinity from variations in the width of lunar daily growth increments of S. gigantea. Temperature explains 70% of the variability in shell growth. The model was calibrated and tested with modern shells and then applied to archaeological specimens. The time period between 988 and 1447 cal yrs BP was characterized by colder (~1-2°C) and much drier (2-5 PSU) summers, and a likely much slower flowing ACC than at present. In contrast, the summers during the time interval of 599-1014 cal yrs BP were colder (up to 3°C) and fresher (1-2 PSU) than today. The Aleutian Low may have been stronger and the ACC was probably flowing faster during this time.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Evaluating the usefulness of soil moisture (forecasts) in streamflow prediction for central Texas

The past decade has brought significant advancements in seasonal climate forecasting. However, water resources decision support and management continues to be based almost entirely on historical observations and does not take advantage of climate forecasts. This study builds on previous work that conditioned streamflow ensemble forecasts on observable climate indicators, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) for use in a decision support model for the Highland Lakes multi-reservoir system in central Texas operated by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA). In the current study, seasonal soil moisture is explored as a climate indicator and predictor of annual streamflow for the LCRA region. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the correlation of fractional soil moisture with streamflow using the 1950-2000 Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Retrospective Land Surface Data Set over the LCRA region. Correlations were determined by examining different annual and seasonal combinations of VIC modeled fractional soil moisture and observed streamflow. The applicability of the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set as a data source for this study is tested along with establishing and analyzing patterns of climatology for the watershed study area using the selected data source (VIC model) and historical data. Correlation results showed potential for the use of soil moisture as a predictor of streamflow over the LCRA region. This was evident by the good correlations found between seasonal soil moisture and seasonal streamflow during coincident seasons as well as between seasonal and annual soil moisture with annual streamflow during coincident years. With the findings of good correlation between seasonal soil moisture from the VIC Retrospective Land Surface Data Set with observed annual streamflow presented in this study, future research would evaluate the application of NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of soil moisture in predicting annual streamflow for use in the decision support model for the LCRA.

Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

Plurality of tree species responses to drought perturbation in Bornean tropical rain forest

Drought perturbation driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a principal stochastic variable determining the dynamics of lowland rain forest in S.E. Asia. Mortality, recruitment and stem growth rates at Danum in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo) were recorded in two 4-ha plots (trees ≥ 10 cm gbh) for two periods, 1986–1996 and 1996–2001. Mortality and growth were also recorded in a sample of subplots for small trees (10 to <50 cm gbh) in two sub-periods, 1996–1999 and 1999–2001. Dynamics variables were employed to build indices of drought response for each of the 34 most abundant plot-level species (22 at the subplot level), these being interval-weighted percentage changes between periods and sub-periods. A significant yet complex effect of the strong 1997/1998 drought at the forest community level was shown by randomization procedures followed by multiple hypothesis testing. Despite a general resistance of the forest to drought, large and significant differences in short-term responses were apparent for several species. Using a diagrammatic form of stability analysis, different species showed immediate or lagged effects, high or low degrees of resilience or even oscillatory dynamics. In the context of the local topographic gradient, species’ responses define the newly termed perturbation response niche. The largest responses, particularly for recruitment and growth, were among the small trees, many of which are members of understorey taxa. The results bring with them a novel approach to understanding community dynamics: the kaleidoscopic complexity of idiosyncratic responses to stochastic perturbations suggests that plurality, rather than neutrality, of responses may be essential to understanding these tropical forests. The basis to the various responses lies with the mechanisms of tree-soil water relations which are physiologically predictable: the timing and intensity of the next drought, however, is not. To date, environmental stochasticity has been insufficiently incorporated into models of tropical forest dynamics, a step that might considerably improve the reality of theories about these globally important ecosystems.

Current Regulating and Supporting Services: Nutrient Cycles

The study forest regulates nutrient cycles as a supporting ecosystem service mainly via retention in the biosphere and the soil organic layer. How tight the nutrient cycles are depends on environmental conditions. In this chapter, we focus on the roles of (1) deposition from the atmosphere, (2) soil moisture regime, and (3) conversion to pasture in the nutrient cycle. Between 1998 and 2010, there were a seasonal deposition of salpetric acid, an episodic deposition of Ca and Mg from Sahara dusts, and a continuous increase in reactive N inputs related to Amazonian forest fires, the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle, and the economic development, respectively. Simultaneously, soils became increasingly drier enhancing nutrient release by mineralization. An increasing number of rain storms could considerably increase the export of N and base metals (K, Ca, Mg) via fast surface-near lateral transport in soil. Land-use change from forest to pasture introduces alkaline ashes and grass-derived organic matter. The resulting increases in soil pH and nutrient and substrate supply increase nutrient cycling rates because of enhanced microbial activity.

Monthly Tahiti coral Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope data from IODP Hole 310-M0024A

The early last glacial termination was characterized by intense North Atlantic cooling and weak overturning circulation. This interval between ~18,000 and 14,600 years ago, known as Heinrich Stadial 1, was accompanied by a disruption of global climate and has been suggested as a key factor for the termination. However, the response of interannual climate variability in the tropical Pacific (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) to Heinrich Stadial 1 is poorly understood. Here we use Sr/Ca in a fossil Tahiti coral to reconstruct tropical South Pacific sea surface temperature around 15,000 years ago at monthly resolution. Unlike today, interannual South Pacific sea surface temperature variability at typical El Niño-Southern Oscillation periods was pronounced at Tahiti. Our results indicate that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation was active during Heinrich Stadial 1, consistent with climate model simulations of enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability at that time. Furthermore, a greater El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence in the South Pacific during Heinrich Stadial 1 is suggested, resulting from a southward expansion or shift of El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature anomalies.