Ecological-economic optimization of biodiversity conservation under climate change

Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.

Case studies and mathematical models of ecological speciation. 1. Cichlids in a crater lake.

A recent study of a pair of sympatric species of cichlids in Lake Apoyo in Nicaragua is viewed as providing probably one of the most convincing examples of sympatric speciation to date. Here, we describe and study a stochastic, individual-based, explicit genetic model tailored for this cichlid system. Our results show that relatively rapid (<20,000 generations) colonization of a new ecological niche and (sympatric or parapatric) speciation via local adaptation and divergence in habitat and mating preferences are theoretically plausible if: (i) the number of loci underlying the traits controlling local adaptation, and habitat and mating preferences is small; (ii) the strength of selection for local adaptation is intermediate; (iii) the carrying capacity of the population is intermediate; and (iv) the effects of the loci influencing nonrandom mating are strong. We discuss patterns and timescales of ecological speciation identified by our model, and we highlight important parameters and features that need to be studied empirically to provide information that can be used to improve the biological realism and power of mathematical models of ecological speciation.

Behavioural types and ecological effects in a natural population of the cooperative cichlid Neolamprologus pulcher

The ecological relevance of behavioural syndromes is little studied in cooperative breeding systems where it is assumed that the behavioural type might influence individual decisions on helping and dispersal (e.g. shy, nonaggressive and nonexplorative individuals remain philopatric and helpful, whereas bold, aggressive, explorative individuals compete for vacancies outside their group and disperse). We measured the behavioural type of 19 subordinates in the cooperatively breeding cichlid fish Neolamprologus pulcher in their natural environment by quantifying six behavioural traits up to four times ('trials') in three different contexts, by presenting them with a conspecific intruder, a predator or nothing inside a tube. We found only moderate within-context repeatability (intraclass correlation coefficients) of the focal individual's behaviour, except for attacking either the conspecific or the predator inside the tube. The focal individual's attack rate of the tube was also positively affected by its group size. Averaging traits per context removed the between-trial variation, and consequently the across-context repeatability was very high for all six traits, except for territory maintenance. Trait values depended significantly on the context, except for territory defence. Consequently, individuals could be classified into different behavioural types based on their reaction towards the tube, but surprisingly, and opposite to laboratory studies in this species, ranging propensity and territory maintenance were not included in this behavioural syndrome. We suggest that more studies are needed to compare standardized focal personality tests (e.g. exploration propensity) with actual behaviour observed in nature (e.g. ranging and dispersal).

Evolutionary and ecological significance of non-shivering thermogenesis in the common vole

La production endogène à long terme de chaleur, même au repos, est une adaptation que l'on retrouve chez les animaux à sang chaud (les oiseaux et les mammifères). Cette production de chaleur a comme but le maintien d'une température constante du corps indépendamment de la température extérieure. A cette fin, les mammifères ont développé une forme de tissu spécialisé nommé tissu adipeux brun (BAT). Ce tissu est responsable de la conversion de nourriture en chaleur, procédé appelé thermogenèse sans frisson (NST = non-shivering thermogenesis). Durant ce procédé la uncoupling protein 1 (UCP1) convertit, au sein des mitochondries, la nourriture en chaleur au lieu de produire de l'ATP, molécule utilisée comme énergie cellulaire. On suppose que cette inefficacité de la conversion de la nourriture en ATP dans le BAT influence l'homéostasie de l'énergie, l'allocation des ressources ainsi que la régulation de processus gourmant en énergie comme la croissance et la reproduction. Afin de maintenir une température du corps constante, les mammifères doivent ajuster leur NST en fonction de la température ambiante. La NST devrait être donc plus importante que la croissance et la reproduction durant l'hiver que lors l'été/à haute altitude qu'à basse altitude. En effet, plusieurs études ont déjà démontré la dépendance de la NST aux divers paramètres environnementaux. Par contre, l'héritabilité de la NST ainsi que sa relation avec d'autres traits de caractère, ne sont que très peu connus, ceci malgré l'importance d'une telle information afin de pouvoir comprendre son potentiel évolutif. L'étude de l'importance évolutive et écologique sur la NST chez les campagnols des champs (Microtus arvalis) fut donc le but cette thèse de doctorat. Grâce aux informations collectées sur 4 générations de campagnols (chapitre 1), une dépendance saisonnière et journalière de la NST a été démontrée: elle augmente lors des périodes froides et diminue lors de la lactation. On a démontré que bien qu'étant plastique, la variation de la NST a une composante génétique significative. Elle est corrélée avec le taux d'activité métabolique au repos indiquant des contraintes intrinsèques. A l'aide d'une expérience de jardin commune, on a pu démontrer dans le chapitre 2 que les campagnols habitant en altitude ont une capacité génétique de thermogenèse sans frisson plus haute que celles de basse altitude. Ils produisent des portées plus petites et leur descendance grandit moins vite, surtout à partir du 10ème jour ce qui coïncide avec le début de la production de chaleur endogène. En choisissant artificiellement des campagnols avec une NST faible ou grande, on a pu démontrer une relation entre la NST et la développement de la masse corporelle. Les campagnols avec une haute NST grandissent plus lentement et sont plus légères à l'âge adulte que celles ayant une basse NST. A l'aide d'un croisement interligne entre les campagnols sélectionnés (avec basse et haute NST), on a pu montrer dans le chapitre 3 des effets « parent-of-origin >> du développement massique de la descendance, indiquant une empreinte génétique parentale. Cela veut dire que l'expression d'un allele dépend de l'origine parentale. De plus, des effets « parent-of-origin » des taux de base de norépinephrine et d'irisine ont pu être trouvés. Ces hormones sont connues pour influencer non seulement la TSF mais aussi d'autres caractéristiques. Ces influences ouvrent la voie à de nouvelles études sur la relation entre la TSF et l'histoire de vie. Dans le chapitre 4 on a démontré des effets à long terme de l'allocation des ressources en manipulant la taille des portées qui ont abouti à des différences dans l'investissement dans la reproduction et de la croissance de la descendance à la fois dans le cas de la reproduction manipulé et aussi dans le non - manipulée entre les femelles avec portées agrandies et réduites. Ensemble, ces résultats mettent en évidence le rôle central de la NST dans l'allocation des ressources sur la base d'un compromis entre le maintien et la croissance et ainsi transforme l'histoire de vie des mammifères. Ces études montrent comment les mammifères peuvent répondre rapidement à court et à long terme (c'est-à-dire par des réponses génétiques ou plastiques) à un changement rapide du climat. On montre aussi qu'il y a probablement une corrélation entre l'histoire de vie et des changements du comportement. Finalement mes résultats ont montré un lien étroit entre la NST et la croissance et les dimensions du corps. Ces résultats indiquent que le tissu adipeux brun et la NST pourraient être une cible thérapeutique intéressante pour traiter l'obésité.

Symbiotic effectiveness and ecological characterization of indigenous Rhizobium loti populations in Uruguay

The objectives of this work were to describe the distribution, density and seasonal variation of the indigenous populations of Rhizobium loti in different Uruguayan soils and to determine the symbiotic effectiveness and stress tolerance factors of different isolates, both with the aim of obtaining selected strains to re-introduce as inoculants in Lotus pastures. R. loti was present in ten soils studied and their densities varied from year to year and within each soil. All the isolates nodulated Lotus corniculatus effectively. The nodules in Lotus pedunculatus and Lotus subbiflorus were small, red on the surface and ineffective in nitrogen fixation. The study of 50 isolates from the ten soils showed high variability in their symbiotic efficiency and tolerance to pH. The indigenous population was acid tolerant in culture medium (pH 4.5), 83% of them could grow at pH 4.5 in 3 days. This work showed that there was a great diversity between the strains of R. loti isolated from Uruguayan soils and supports the importance of selecting among them the most efficient and resistant strains to be included in the inoculants.

Ecological niche overlap in sister species: how do oil-collecting bees Macropis europaea and M. fulvipes (Hymenoptera: Melittidae) avoid competition and hybridization?

Oil-collecting bees are found worldwide and always in association with particular oil-producing flowers. In the Western Palearctic, three oil-collecting bee species within the genus Macropis (Hymenoptera, Melittidae) interact in a tight pollination mutualism with species of the only European oil-producing plant genus Lysimachia L. (Myrsinaceae). Two of these oil-collecting bees (Macropis europaea and Macropis fulvipes) show overlapping geographic distributions, comparable morphologies, and similar ecological characteristics (e.g., habitat type, floral preferences). In view of these similarities, we presume that hybridization should occur between the two species unless potential variation among the species' ecological niches prevents it, simultaneously decreasing competition for resources. Using modern genetic analyses and ecological niche modeling on a large bee sampling throughout Europe, we discuss new perspectives on the ecology and evolutionary history of this mutualism.

Spatial Polarization of the Ecological Footprint distribution

The international allocation of natural resources is determined, not by any ethical or ecological criteria, but by the dominance of market mechanisms. From a core-periphery perspective, this allocation may even be driven by historically determined structural patterns, with a core group of countries whose consumption appropriates most available natural resources, and another group, having low natural resource consumption, which plays a peripheral role. This article consists of an empirical distributional analysis of natural resource consumption (as measured by Ecological Footprints) whose purpose is to assess the extent to which the distribution of consumption responds to polarization (as opposed to mere inequality). To assess this, we estimate and decompose different polarization indices for a balanced sample of 119 countries over the period 1961 to 2007. Our results points toward a polarized distribution which is consistent with a core-periphery framework.

Modelling ecological niches with support vector machines

1. The ecological niche is a fundamental biological concept. Modelling species' niches is central to numerous ecological applications, including predicting species invasions, identifying reservoirs for disease, nature reserve design and forecasting the effects of anthropogenic and natural climate change on species' ranges. 2. A computational analogue of Hutchinson's ecological niche concept (the multidimensional hyperspace of species' environmental requirements) is the support of the distribution of environments in which the species persist. Recently developed machine-learning algorithms can estimate the support of such high-dimensional distributions. We show how support vector machines can be used to map ecological niches using only observations of species presence to train distribution models for 106 species of woody plants and trees in a montane environment using up to nine environmental covariates. 3. We compared the accuracy of three methods that differ in their approaches to reducing model complexity. We tested models with independent observations of both species presence and species absence. We found that the simplest procedure, which uses all available variables and no pre-processing to reduce correlation, was best overall. Ecological niche models based on support vector machines are theoretically superior to models that rely on simulating pseudo-absence data and are comparable in empirical tests. 4. Synthesis and applications. Accurate species distribution models are crucial for effective environmental planning, management and conservation, and for unravelling the role of the environment in human health and welfare. Models based on distribution estimation rather than classification overcome theoretical and practical obstacles that pervade species distribution modelling. In particular, ecological niche models based on machine-learning algorithms for estimating the support of a statistical distribution provide a promising new approach to identifying species' potential distributions and to project changes in these distributions as a result of climate change, land use and landscape alteration.