Achieving a more realistic assessment of rockfall hazards by coupling three-dimensional process models and field-based tree-ring data

Sound knowledge of the spatial and temporal patterns of rockfalls is fundamental for the management of this very common hazard in mountain environments. Process-based, three-dimensional simulation models are nowadays capable of reproducing the spatial distribution of rockfall occurrences with reasonable accuracy through the simulation of numerous individual trajectories on highly-resolved digital terrain models. At the same time, however, simulation models typically fail to quantify the ‘real’ frequency of rockfalls (in terms of return intervals). The analysis of impact scars on trees, in contrast, yields real rockfall frequencies, but trees may not be present at the location of interest and rare trajectories may not necessarily be captured due to the limited age of forest stands. In this article, we demonstrate that the coupling of modeling with tree-ring techniques may overcome the limitations inherent to both approaches. Based on the analysis of 64 cells (40 m × 40 m) of a rockfall slope located above a 1631-m long road section in the Swiss Alps, we illustrate results from 488 rockfalls detected in 1260 trees. We illustrate that tree impact data cannot only be used (i) to reconstruct the real frequency of rockfalls for individual cells, but that they also serve (ii) the calibration of the rockfall model Rockyfor3D, as well as (iii) the transformation of simulated trajectories into real frequencies. Calibrated simulation results are in good agreement with real rockfall frequencies and exhibit significant differences in rockfall activity between the cells (zones) along the road section. Real frequencies, expressed as rock passages per meter road section, also enable quantification and direct comparison of the hazard potential between the zones. The contribution provides an approach for hazard zoning procedures that complements traditional methods with a quantification of rockfall frequencies in terms of return intervals through a systematic inclusion of impact records in trees.

Chronology of Lateglacial ice flow reorganization and deglaciation in the Gotthard Pass area, Central Swiss Alps, based on cosmogenic 10Be and in situ 14C

We reconstruct the timing of ice flow reconfiguration and deglaciation of the Central Alpine Gotthard Pass, Switzerland, using cosmogenic 10Be and in situ14C surface exposure dating. Combined with mapping of glacial erosional markers, exposure ages of bedrock surfaces reveal progressive glacier downwasting from the maximum LGM ice volume and a gradual reorganization of the paleoflow pattern with a southward migration of the ice divide. Exposure ages of ∼16–14 ka (snow corrected) give evidence for continuous early Lateglacial ice cover and indicate that the first deglaciation was contemporaneous with the decay of the large Gschnitz glacier system. In agreement with published ages from other Alpine passes, these data support the concept of large transection glaciers that persisted in the high Alps after the breakdown of the LGM ice masses in the foreland and possibly decayed as late as the onset of the Bølling warming. A younger group of ages around ∼12–13 ka records the timing of deglaciation following local glacier readvance during the Egesen stadial. Glacial erosional features and the distribution of exposure ages consistently imply that Egesen glaciers were of comparatively small volume and were following a topographically controlled paleoflow pattern. Dating of a boulder close to the pass elevation gives a minimum age of 11.1 ± 0.4 ka for final deglaciation by the end of the Younger Dryas. In situ14C data are overall in good agreement with the 10Be ages and confirm continuous exposure throughout the Holocene. However, in situ14C demonstrates that partial surface shielding, e.g. by snow, has to be incorporated in the exposure age calculations and the model of deglaciation.

Glacial–interglacial temperature change in the tropical West Pacific: A comparison of stalagmite-based paleo-thermometers

In the tropics, geochemical records from stalagmites have so far mainly been used to qualitatively reconstruct changes in precipitation, but several new methods to reconstruct past temperatures from stalagmite material have emerged recently: i) liquide vapor homogenization of fluid inclusion water ii) noble gas concentrations in fluid inclusion water, iii) the partitioning of oxygen isotopes between fluid inclusion water and calcite, and iv) the abundance of the 13C18O16O(‘clumped’) isotopologue in calcite. We present, for the first time, a direct comparison of these four paleo-thermometers by applying them to a fossil stalagmite covering nearly two glaciale interglacial cycles (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 12 e 9) and to two modern stalagmites, all from northern Borneo. The temperature estimates from the different methods agree in most cases within errors for both the old and recent samples; reconstructed formation temperatures of the recent samples match within 2-sigma errors with measured cave temperatures. However, slight but systematic deviations are observed between noble gas and liquide vapor homogenization temperatures. Whereas the temperature sensitivity of fluid inclusion d18O and clumped isotopes is currently debated, we find that the calibration of Tremaine et al. (2011) for fluid inclusion d18O and a synthetic calcite-based clumped isotope calibration (Ziegler et al., in prep.) yield temperature estimates consistent with the other methods. All methods (with the potential exception of clumped isotopes) show excellent agreement on the amplitude of glaciale interglacial temperature change, indicating temperature shifts of 4-5 C°. This amplitude is similar to the amplitude of Mg/Ca-based regional sea surface temperature records, when correcting for sea level driven changes in cave elevation. Our reconstruction of tropical temperature evolution over the time period from 440 to 320 thousand years ago (ka) adds support to the view that climate sensitivity to varying greenhouse forcing is substantial also in the deep tropics.

Atmospheric water parameters measured by a ground-based microwave radiometer and compared with the WRF model

The microwave radiometer TROWARA measures integrated water vapour (IWV) and integrated cloud liquid water (ILW) at Bern since 1994 with a time resolution of 7 s. In this study, we compare TROWARA measurements with a simulation of summer 2012 in Switzerland performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It is found that the WRF model agrees very well with TROWARA’s IWV variations with a mean bias of only 0.7 mm. The ILW distribution of the WRF model, although similar in shape to TROWARA’s distribution, overestimates the fraction of clear sky periods (83% compared to 60%).

Zeeman effect in atmospheric O₂ measured by ground-based microwave radiometry

In this work we study the Zeeman effect on stratospheric O₂ using ground-based microwave radiometer measurements. The interaction of the Earth magnetic field with the oxygen dipole leads to a splitting of O₂ energy states, which polarizes the emission spectra. A special campaign was carried out in order to measure this effect in the oxygen emission line centered at 53.07 GHz. Both a fixed and a rotating mirror were incorporated into the TEMPERA (TEMPERature RAdiometer) in order to be able to measure under different observational angles. This new configuration allowed us to change the angle between the observational path and the Earth magnetic field direction. Moreover, a high-resolution spectrometer (1 kHz) was used in order to measure for the first time the polarization state of the radiation due to the Zeeman effect in the main isotopologue of oxygen from ground-based microwave measurements. The measured spectra showed a clear polarized signature when the observational angles were changed, evidencing the Zeeman effect in the oxygen molecule. In addition, simulations carried out with the Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) allowed us to verify the microwave measurements showing a very good agreement between model and measurements. The results suggest some interesting new aspects for research of the upper atmosphere.

GROMOS-C, a novel ground-based microwave radiometer for ozone measurement campaigns

Stratospheric ozone is of major interest as it absorbs most harmful UV radiation from the sun, allowing life on Earth. Ground-based microwave remote sensing is the only method that allows for the measurement of ozone profiles up to the mesopause, over 24 hours and under different weather conditions with high time resolution. In this paper a novel ground-based microwave radiometer is presented. It is called GROMOS-C (GRound based Ozone MOnitoring System for Campaigns), and it has been designed to measure the vertical profile of ozone distribution in the middle atmosphere by observing ozone emission spectra at a frequency of 110.836 GHz. The instrument is designed in a compact way which makes it transportable and suitable for outdoor use in campaigns, an advantageous feature that is lacking in present day ozone radiometers. It is operated through remote control. GROMOS-C is a total power radiometer which uses a pre-amplified heterodyne receiver, and a digital fast Fourier transform spectrometer for the spectral analysis. Among its main new features, the incorporation of different calibration loads stands out; this includes a noise diode and a new type of blackbody target specifically designed for this instrument, based on Peltier elements. The calibration scheme does not depend on the use of liquid nitrogen; therefore GROMOS-C can be operated at remote places with no maintenance requirements. In addition, the instrument can be switched in frequency to observe the CO line at 115 GHz. A description of the main characteristics of GROMOS-C is included in this paper, as well as the results of a first campaign at the High Altitude Research Station at Jungfraujoch (HFSJ), Switzerland. The validation is performed by comparison of the retrieved profiles against equivalent profiles from MLS (Microwave Limb Sounding) satellite data, ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) model data, as well as our nearby NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) ozone radiometer measuring at Bern.

Dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, oxygen isotope records of foraminifera, and alkenone and Mg/Ca-based SST estimates for the time interval 3.40-3.18 Ma (Late Pliocene) from five North Atlantic and Caribbean sediment cores

The early Late Pliocene (3.6 to ~3.0 million years ago) is the last extended interval in Earth's history when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were comparable to today's and global climate was warmer. Yet a severe global glaciation during marine isotope stage (MIS) M2 interrupted this phase of global warmth ~3.30 million years ago, and is seen as a premature attempt of the climate system to establish an ice-age world. Our geochemical and palynological records from five marine sediment cores along a Caribbean to eastern North Atlantic transect show that increased Pacific-to-Atlantic flow via the Central American Seaway weakened the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and attendant northward heat transport prior to MIS M2. The consequent cooling of the northern high latitude oceans permitted expansion of the Greenland ice sheet during MIS M2, despite near-modern atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Before and after MIS M2, heat transport via the NAC was crucial in maintaining warm climates comparable to those predicted for the end of this century.

A global seasonal surface ocean climatology of phytoplankton types based on CHEMTAX analysis of HPLC pigments

Much advancement has been made in recent years in field data assimilation, remote sensing and ecosystem modeling, yet our global view of phytoplankton biogeography beyond chlorophyll biomass is still a cursory taxonomic picture with vast areas of the open ocean requiring field validations. High performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) pigment data combined with inverse methods offer an advantage over many other phytoplankton quantification measures by way of providing an immediate perspective of the whole phytoplankton community in a sample as a function of chlorophyll biomass. Historically, such chemotaxonomic analysis has been conducted mainly at local spatial and temporal scales in the ocean. Here, we apply a widely tested inverse approach, CHEMTAX, to a global climatology of pigment observations from HPLC. This study marks the first systematic and objective global application of CHEMTAX, yielding a seasonal climatology comprised of ~1500 1°x1° global grid points of the major phytoplankton pigment types in the ocean characterizing cyanobacteria, haptophytes, chlorophytes, cryptophytes, dinoflagellates, and diatoms, with results validated against prior regional studies where possible. Key findings from this new global view of specific phytoplankton abundances from pigments are a) the large global proportion of marine haptophytes (comprising 32 ± 5% of total chlorophyll), whose biogeochemical functional roles are relatively unknown, and b) the contrasting spatial scales of complexity in global community structure that can be explained in part by regional oceanographic conditions. These publicly accessible results will guide future parameterizations of marine ecosystem models exploring the link between phytoplankton community structure and marine biogeochemical cycles.