905 resultados para Dynamic security assessment


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In the face of dramatic declines in groundfish populations and a lack of sufficient stock assessment information, a need has arisen for new methods of assessing groundfish populations. We describe the integration of seafloor transect data gathered by a manned submersible with high-resolution sonar imagery to produce a habitat-based stock assessment system for groundfish. The data sets used in this study were collected from Heceta Bank, Oregon, and were derived from 42 submersible dives (1988–90) and a multibeam sonar survey (1998). The submersible habitat survey investigated seafloor topography and groundfish abundance along 30-minute transects over six predetermined stations and found a statistical relationship between habitat variability and groundfish distribution and abundance. These transects were analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS) by using dynamic segmentation to display changes in habitat along the transects. We used the submersible data to extrapolate fish abundance within uniform habitat patches over broad areas of the bank by means of a habitat classification based on the sonar imagery. After applying a navigation correction to the submersible-based habitat segments, a good correlation with major boundaries on the backscatter and topographic boundaries on the imagery were apparent. Extrapolation of the extent of uniform habitats was made in the vicinity of the dive stations and a preliminary stock assessment of several species of demersal fish was calculated. Such a habitat-based approach will allow researchers to characterize marine communities over large areas of the seafloor.

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This study was conducted to determine reproduction characteristics, diet regime, age structure and population dynamics parameters of the vimba vimba persa (Pallas, 1811) in Mazandaran waters of the Caspian Sea, from October 2008 to September 2009. A total of 994 specimens were monthly collected by beach seine and cast net from six fish landings of Ramsar, Tonekabon, Chaloos, Mahmood Abad, Sari and Behshahr. Biometric characters were measured for each specimen at the laboratory. Scales were used for age determination. Sex determination and fecundity were determined. Population dynamic parameters as well as stock assessment including cohort analysis were estimated using FISAT software. The finding showed that the mean of fork length and body weight of the Caspian Vimba were 168.4±2.6 mm and 71.94±32.24 g respectively. Strong correlation was found between these two variables (a= 0.012; b = 3.047; r2 = 0.955). 92 specimens were studied from the fecundity point of view. This species was found to have more abundance in spring (esp. Apr-May). The samples composed of 397(42.6%) male, 537(57.4%) female; Overall sex ratio (M: F =1: 1.35) was significantly different from the expected 1:1 ratio (p ≤0.05). The advanced stages of maturity (4th & 5th) were found in April and May. The highest Gonadosomatic Index in female was in May and the lowest one was in July. This fish is therefore a spring spawner. The maximum absolute and relative fecundities were 34640 and 260.9, respectively; the minimum absolute and relative fecundities were 5400 and 94.5 respectively. The averages of absolute and relative fecundities were 17198±7710 and 171.85±48.8, respectively. Coefficient vacuity index was 59.2% which indicates that this fish is mesophagous. Among of living creature consumes by Caspian Vimba mollusks, 76 arthropods, worms, plants, detritus and fishes were found 32.9% , 26.7% , 13.4% , 17% , 4.4% and 1.6% respectively. The infinite fork lengths were 261 mm for females, 25mm for males and 261 mm for both sexes respectively. For population growth and mortality parameters; K ( 0.28 per year for both sexes, 0.3 per year for males, 0.33 per year for females); t0 ( -0.65 year for both sexes, -0.23 year in females, -0.51 year in males ); Φ' ( 2.28 ); Z ( 0.98 per year ); M ( 0.59 per year); F ( 0.39 per year) and Exploitation coefficient was 0.4. The analysis showed that total biomass and MSY were 1336 and 528.8 tonnes respectively.

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This study evaluates the performance of a wide range of aquaculture systems in Bangladesh. It is by far the largest of its kind attempted to date. The purpose of this study was to identify and analyze the most important production systems, rather than to provide a nationally representative overview of the entire aquaculture sector of Bangladesh. As such, the study yields a huge amount of new information on production technologies that have never been thoroughly researched before. The study reveals an extremely diverse array of specialized, dynamic and rapidly evolving production technologies, adapted to a variety of market niches and local environmental conditions. This is a testament to the innovativeness of farmers and other value chain actors who have been the principal drivers of this development in Bangladesh. Data was collected from six geographical hubs. This survey was conducted from November 2011 to June 2012. Technological performance in terms of detailed input and output information, fish management practices, credit and marketing, and social and environmental issues were captured by the survey questionnaire, which had both open and closed format questions. The study generated insights that enable better understanding of aquaculture development in Bangladesh.

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Carbon fibre-epoxy composite square honeycombs, and the parent composite material, were tested in quasi-static compression at a strain rate of 10 -3 s -1 and in dynamic compression at strain rates of 10 3-10 4 s -1 using an instrumented Kolsky bar arrangement. Taken together, these tests provide an assessment of the potential of this composite topology for use as a lightweight sandwich core. The honeycombs had two relative densities, 0.12 and 0.24, and two material orientations, ±45° and 0/90° with respect to the prismatic, loading direction of the honeycomb. Honeycomb manufacture was by slotting, assembling and bonding together carbon fibre/epoxy woven plies of composite sheets of 2 × 2 twill weave construction. The peak value of wall stress in the honeycombs was about one third that of the parent material, for all strain rates. An elastic finite element analysis was used to trace the source of this knock-down in strength: a stress concentration exists at the root of the slots and leads to premature failure by microbuckling. Shock-wave effects were evident at impact velocities exceeding 50 ms -1 for the honeycomb of relative density 0.12. This was traced to stubbing of the buckled cell walls against the face of the Kolsky bar. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) and Web Services (WS) offer advanced flexibility and interoperability capabilities. However they imply significant performance overheads that need to be carefully considered. Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Traceability systems are an interesting domain for the use of WS technologies that are usually deemed to be too complex and unnecessary in practical applications, especially regarding security. This paper presents an externalized security architecture that uses the eXtensible Access Control Markup Language (XACML) authorization standard to enforce visibility restrictions on trace-ability data in a supply chain where multiple companies collaborate; the performance overheads are assessed by comparing 'raw' authorization implementations - Access Control Lists, Tokens, and RDF Assertions - with their XACML-equivalents. © 2012 IEEE.

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Nitrogen and phosphorus dynamics in relation to fallowing in a fish cage farm was investigated in a shallow lake in China. Four sampling sites were set: beneath the cages, at the cage sides, and 50 and 100 m east of the cage farm. Total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) in lake water and sediment were analyzed during a 2-year rearing cycle. The cage culture had a fish yield of 16.3-39.2 tonnes in the study period. Based on the mass balance equation, 1533-3084 kg TN and 339-697 kg TP were contributed to the lake environment. Nitrogen and phosphorous concentrations showed greater increase in the first culture period than in the second rearing cycle. No obvious changes were found at the sampling sites 50 and 100 m east of the cages during the study periods. Main impacts were found close to the cages (beneath the cages and at the cage side); the sampling points at the cage side showed relatively high TN and TP sedimentation. After 3 months of fallowing, water TN and TP decreased significantly but the sediment TN and TP contents remained high. Therefore, recovery seems to happen during fallowing but attention should be paid to whether the culture continues to operate in the future.

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The Yongle-Big-Bell is an exquisite heritage of ancient China and has more than 600 years history. The long history renders the suspending wooden rack serious damage. Therefore, the security is of our great concern. In order to know if the wooden rack is safe or not for the conventional striking in the festival service, a systemic research work has been done. At first the existing deformation and response to the strike of the beetle were measured, and then calculations using method of material mechanics and finite element analysis were conducted. Based on the results of our research, some concluding remarks and suggestion were given: The Yongle-Big-Bell can be struck regularly without urgent danger of collapse. In view of the existence of serious rotten damage, the repair and protection of wooden rack are pressing.

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Sustainable water use is seriously compromised in the North China Plain (NCP) due to the huge water requirements of agriculture, the largest use of water resources. An integrated approach which combines the ecosystem model with emergy analysis is presented to determine the optimum quantity of irrigation for sustainable development in irrigated cropping systems. Since the traditional emergy method pays little attention to the dynamic interaction among components of the ecological system and dynamic emergy accounting is in its infancy, it is hard to evaluate the cropping system in hypothetical situations or in response to specific changes. In order to solve this problem, an ecosystem model (Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP) model) is introduced for emergy analysis to describe the production processes. Some raw data, collected by investigating or observing in conventional emergy analysis, may be calculated by the VIP model in the new approach. To demonstrate the advantage of this new approach, we use it to assess the wheat-maize rotation cropping system at different irrigation levels and derive the optimum quantity of irrigation according to the index of ecosystem sustainable development in NCP. The results show, the optimum quantity of irrigation in this region should be 240-330 mm per year in the wheat system and no irrigation in the maize system, because with this quantity of irrigation the rotation crop system reveals: best efficiency in energy transformation (transformity = 6.05E + 4 sej/J); highest sustainability (renewability = 25%); lowest environmental impact (environmental loading ratio = 3.5) and the greatest sustainability index (Emergy Sustainability Index = 0.47) compared with the system in other irrigation amounts. This study demonstrates that application of the new approach is broader than the conventional emergy analysis and the new approach is helpful in optimizing resources allocation, resource-savings and maintaining agricultural sustainability.

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McInnes, C., 'HIV/AIDS and national security', in: AIDS and Governance, N. Poku, A. Whiteside and B. Sandkjaer (eds.),(Aldershot: Ashgate, 2007), pp.93-111 RAE2008

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The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

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The training and ongoing education of medical practitioners has undergone major changes in an incremental fashion over the past 15 years. These changes have been driven by patient safety, educational, economic and legislative/regulatory factors. In the near future, training in procedural skills will undergo a paradigm shift to proficiency based progression with associated requirements for competence-based programmes, valid, reliable assessment tools and simulation technology. Before training begins, the learning outcomes require clear definition; any form of assessment applied should include measurement of these outcomes. Currently training in a procedural skill often takes place on an ad hoc basis. The number of attempts necessary to attain a defined degree of proficiency varies from procedure to procedure. Convincing evidence exists that simulation training helps trainees to acquire skills more efficiently rather than relying on opportunities in their clinical practice. Simulation provides a safe, stress free environment for trainees for skill acquisition, generalization and transfer via deliberate practice. The work described in this thesis contributes to a greater understanding of how medical procedures can be performed more safely and effectively through education. The effect of feedback, provided to novices in a standardized setting on a bench model, based on knowledge of performance was associated with an increase in the speed of skill acquisition and a decrease in error rate during initial learning. The timing of feedback was also associated with effective learning of skill. A marked attrition of skills (independent of the type of feedback provided) was demonstrable 24 hrs after they have first been learned. Using the principles of feedback as described above, when studying the effect of an intense training program on novices of varied years of experience in anaesthesia (i.e. the present training programmes / courses of an intense training day for one or more procedures). There was a marked attrition of skill at 24 hours with a significant correlation with increasing years of experience; there also appeared to be an inverse relationship between years of experience in anaesthesia and performance. The greater the number of years of practice experience, the longer it required a learner to acquire a new skill. The findings of the studies described in this thesis may have important implications for the trainers, trainees and training bodies in the design and implementation of training courses and the formats of delivery of changing curricula. Both curricula and training modalities will need to take account of characteristics of individual learners and the dynamic nature of procedural healthcare.

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The paper presents a dynamic study of the Spanish labour market which tries to determine if it matches the characteristics of transitional labour markets from a fl exicurity approach. Employment trajectories of Spanish workers during the years 2007-2010 are studied using the Continuous Sample of Working Lives. This period covers the end of the expansion of the Spanish economy and the beginning of the current employment crisis. From the combination of the chosen topic, the approach, and the database used, this is a novel perspective in our country. The article shows evidence of the evolution of the employment and unemployment spells, the Spanish labour market turnover degree, and the diffi culties of some groups for carrying out transition between employment and unemployment. The results obtained show a labour market in which a) transitions have come to a halt, and b) there is high job insecurity.

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The global increase in the penetration of renewable energy is pushing electrical power systems into uncharted territory, especially in terms of transient and dynamic stability. In particular, the greater penetration of wind generation in European power networks is, at times, displacing a significant capacity of conventional synchronous generation with fixed-speed induction generation and now more commonly, doubly fed induction generators. The impact of such changes in the generation mix requires careful monitoring to assess the impact on transient and dynamic stability. This study presents a measurement-based method for the early detection of power system oscillations, with consideration of mode damping, in order to raise alarms and develop strategies to actively improve power system dynamic stability and security. A method is developed based on wavelet-based support vector data description (SVDD) to detect oscillation modes in wind farm output power, which may excite dynamic instabilities in the wider system. The wavelet transform is used as a filter to identify oscillations in frequency bands, whereas the SVDD method is used to extract dominant features from different scales and generate an assessment boundary according to the extracted features. Poorly damped oscillations of a large magnitude, or that are resonant, can be alarmed to the system operator, to reduce the risk of system instability. The proposed method is exemplified using measured data from a chosen wind farm site.

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Automatic gender classification has many security and commercial applications. Various modalities have been investigated for gender classification with face-based classification being the most popular. In some real-world scenarios the face may be partially occluded. In these circumstances a classification based on individual parts of the face known as local features must be adopted. We investigate gender classification using lip movements. We show for the first time that important gender specific information can be obtained from the way in which a person moves their lips during speech. Furthermore our study indicates that the lip dynamics during speech provide greater gender discriminative information than simply lip appearance. We also show that the lip dynamics and appearance contain complementary gender information such that a model which captures both traits gives the highest overall classification result. We use Discrete Cosine Transform based features and Gaussian Mixture Modelling to model lip appearance and dynamics and employ the XM2VTS database for our experiments. Our experiments show that a model which captures lip dynamics along with appearance can improve gender classification rates by between 16-21% compared to models of only lip appearance.