918 resultados para Dynamic security analysis
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The reinforcing effect of inorganic fullerene-like tungsten disulfide (IF-WS2) nanoparticles in two different polymer matrices, isotactic polypropylene (iPP) and polyphenylene sulfide (PPS), has been investigated by means of dynamic depth-sensing indentation. The hardness and elastic modulus enhancement upon filler addition is analyzed in terms of two main contributions: changes in the polymer matrix nanostructure and intrinsic properties of the filler including matrix-particle load transfer. It is found that the latter mainly determines the overall mechanical improvement, whereas the nanostructural changes induced in the polymer matrix only contribute to a minor extent. Important differences are suggested between the mechanisms of deformation in the two nanocomposites, resulting in a moderate mechanical enhancement in case of iPP (20% for a filler loading of 1%), and a remarkable hardness increase in case of PPS (60% for the same filler content). The nature of the polymer amorphous phase, whether in the glassy or rubbery state, seems to play here an important role. Finally, nanoindentation and dynamic mechanical analysis measurements are compared and discussed in terms of the different directionality of the stresses applied.
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A photo-healable rubber composite based on effective and fast thiol-alkyne click chemistry as a selfhealing agent prestored in glass capillaries is reported. The click reaction and its effect on the mechanical properties of the composite are monitored in real time by dynamic mechanical analysis, showing that the successful bleeding of healing agents to the crack areas and the effective photoinitiated click reaction result in a 30% storage modulus increase after only 5 min of UV light exposure. X-ray tomography confirms capillary-driven bleeding of reactants to the damaged areas. The effect of storing the click chemistry reactants in separate capillaries is also studied, and results show the importance of stoichiometry in achieving a significant level of repair of the composite. No reactant degradation or premature chemical reaction is observed over time in samples stored in the absence of UV radiation; they are able to undergo the self-healing reaction even one month after preparation.
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En esta tesis se va a describir y aplicar de forma novedosa la técnica del alisado exponencial multivariante a la predicción a corto plazo, a un día vista, de los precios horarios de la electricidad, un problema que se está estudiando intensivamente en la literatura estadística y económica reciente. Se van a demostrar ciertas propiedades interesantes del alisado exponencial multivariante que permiten reducir el número de parámetros para caracterizar la serie temporal y que al mismo tiempo permiten realizar un análisis dinámico factorial de la serie de precios horarios de la electricidad. En particular, este proceso multivariante de elevada dimensión se estimará descomponiéndolo en un número reducido de procesos univariantes independientes de alisado exponencial caracterizado cada uno por un solo parámetro de suavizado que variará entre cero (proceso de ruido blanco) y uno (paseo aleatorio). Para ello, se utilizará la formulación en el espacio de los estados para la estimación del modelo, ya que ello permite conectar esa secuencia de modelos univariantes más eficientes con el modelo multivariante. De manera novedosa, las relaciones entre los dos modelos se obtienen a partir de un simple tratamiento algebraico sin requerir la aplicación del filtro de Kalman. De este modo, se podrán analizar y poner al descubierto las razones últimas de la dinámica de precios de la electricidad. Por otra parte, la vertiente práctica de esta metodología se pondrá de manifiesto con su aplicación práctica a ciertos mercados eléctricos spot, tales como Omel, Powernext y Nord Pool. En los citados mercados se caracterizará la evolución de los precios horarios y se establecerán sus predicciones comparándolas con las de otras técnicas de predicción. ABSTRACT This thesis describes and applies the multivariate exponential smoothing technique to the day-ahead forecast of the hourly prices of electricity in a whole new way. This problem is being studied intensively in recent statistics and economics literature. It will start by demonstrating some interesting properties of the multivariate exponential smoothing that reduce drastically the number of parameters to characterize the time series and that at the same time allow a dynamic factor analysis of the hourly prices of electricity series. In particular this very complex multivariate process of dimension 24 will be estimated by decomposing a very reduced number of univariate independent of exponentially smoothing processes each characterized by a single smoothing parameter that varies between zero (white noise process) and one (random walk). To this end, the formulation is used in the state space model for the estimation, since this connects the sequence of efficient univariate models to the multivariate model. Through a novel way, relations between the two models are obtained from a simple algebraic treatment without applying the Kalman filter. Thus, we will analyze and expose the ultimate reasons for the dynamics of the electricity price. Moreover, the practical aspect of this methodology will be shown by applying this new technique to certain electricity spot markets such as Omel, Powernext and Nord Pool. In those markets the behavior of prices will be characterized, their predictions will be formulated and the results will be compared with those of other forecasting techniques.
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β-actin mRNA is localized near the leading edge in several cell types, where actin polymerization is actively promoting forward protrusion. The localization of the β-actin mRNA near the leading edge is facilitated by a short sequence in the 3′ untranslated region, the “zip code.” Localization of the mRNA at this region is important physiologically. Treatment of chicken embryo fibroblasts with antisense oligonucleotides complementary to the localization sequence (zip code) in the 3′ untranslated region leads to delocalization of β-actin mRNA, alteration of cell phenotype, and a decrease in cell motility. To determine the components of this process responsible for the change in cell behavior after β-actin mRNA delocalization, the Dynamic Image Analysis System was used to quantify movement of cells in the presence of sense and antisense oligonucleotides to the zip code. It was found that net path length and average speed of antisense-treated cells were significantly lower than in sense-treated cells. Total path length and the velocity of protrusion of antisense-treated cells were not affected compared with those of control cells. These results suggest that a decrease in persistence of direction of movement and not in velocity results from treatment of cells with zip code-directed antisense oligonucleotides. To test this, direct analysis of directionality was performed on antisense-treated cells and showed a decrease in directionality (net path/total path) and persistence of movement. Less directional movement of antisense-treated cells correlated with a unpolarized and discontinuous distribution of free barbed ends of actin filaments and of β-actin protein. These results indicate that delocalization of β-actin mRNA results in delocalization of nucleation sites and β-actin protein from the leading edge followed by loss of cell polarity and directional movement.
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Devido ao esgotamento de recursos não renováveis e o aumento das preocupações sobre as alterações climáticas, a produção de combustível renovável a partir de microalgas continua a atrair muita a atenção devido ao seu potencial para taxas rápidas de crescimento, alto teor de óleo, capacidade de crescer em cenários não convencionais e a neutralidade de carbono, além de eliminar a preocupação da disputa com as culturas alimentares. Em virtude disso, torna-se importante o desenvolvimento de um processo de conversão das microalgas em gás combustível, em destaque o gás de síntese. Visando essa importância, estudou-se a reação de gaseificação da microalga Chlorella vulgaris através de experimentos de análise termogravimétrica para estimar os parâmetros cinéticos das reações e através da simulação de um modelo matemático dinâmico termoquímico do processo usando equações de conservação de massa e energia acoplados a cinética de reação. Análises termogravimétricas isotérmicas e dinâmicas foram realizadas usando dois diferentes tipos de modelos cinéticos: isoconversionais e reações paralelas independentes (RPI). Em ambos os modelos, os valores dos parâmetros cinéticos estimados apresentaram bons ajustes e permaneceram dentro daqueles encontrados na literatura. Também foram analisados os efeitos dos parâmetros cinéticos do modelo RPI sobre a conversão da microalga no intuito de observar quais mais se pronunciavam diante a variação de valores. Na etapa de simulação do sistema controlado pelo reator solar, o modelo matemático desenvolvido foi validado por meio da comparação dos valores de temperatura e concentrações de produtos obtidos medidos experimentalmente pela literatura, apresentando boa aproximação nos valores e viabilizando, juntamente com a etapa experimental de termogravimetria, a produção de gás de síntese através da gaseificação da microalga Chlorella vulgaris.
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O método dos elementos finitos é o método numérico mais difundido na análise de estruturas. Ao longo das últimas décadas foram formulados inúmeros elementos finitos para análise de cascas e placas. As formulações de elementos finitos lidam bem com o campo de deslocamentos, mas geralmente faltam testes que possam validar os resultados obtidos para o campo das tensões. Este trabalho analisa o elemento finito T6-3i, um elemento finito triangular de seis nós proposto dentro de uma formulação geometricamente exata, em relação aos seus resultados de tensões, comparando-os com as teorias analíticas de placas, resultados de tabelas para o cálculo de momentos em placas retangulares e do ANSYSr, um software comercial para análise estrutural, mostrando que o T6-3i pode apresentar resultados insatisfatórios. Na segunda parte deste trabalho, as potencialidades do T6-3i são expandidas, sendo proposta uma formulação dinâmica para análise não linear de cascas. Utiliza-se um modelo Lagrangiano atualizado e a forma fraca é obtida do Teorema dos Trabalhos Virtuais. São feitas simulações numéricas da deformação de domos finos que apresentam vários snap-throughs e snap-backs, incluindo domos com vincos curvos, mostrando a robustez, simplicidade e versatilidade do elemento na sua formulação e na geração das malhas não estruturadas necessárias para as simulações.
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Neste trabalho foi estudada a influência da adição de quitosana e sílica a monômeros dimetacrílicos, BisEMA e TEGDMA, por meio das técnicas de fotocalorimetria, termogravimetria e análise dinâmico mecânica. Os resultados dos experimentos de fotocalorimetria demonstraram que a quitosana pode aumentar a velocidade de polimerização e o máximo de conversão para alguns sistemas em determinadas concentrações da mesma, já a sílica tem pouco efeito nas reações de fotopolimerização das amostras. Para os experimentos de termogravimetria, a quitosana tem pouca influência na degradação das amostras não alterando significativamente as curvas TGA/DTG, por outro lado a sílica acelerou a degradação térmica das amostras. A avaliação das propriedades mecânicas demonstrou que a quitosana diminui a temperatura de transição vítrea e a resposta elástica dos sistemas não afetando os valores dos módulos de armazenamento e módulos de perda. A sílica apresentou a tendência de aumento de temperatura de transição vítrea e não alteração da resposta elástica das amostras.
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The transitions and reactions involved in the thermal treatment of several commercial azodicarbonamides (ADC) in an inert atmosphere have been studied by dynamic thermogravimetry analysis (TGA), mass spectrometry and Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. A pseudo-mechanistic model, involving several competitive and non-competitive reactions, has been suggested and applied to the correlation of the weight loss data. The model applied is capable of accurately representing the different processes involved, and can be of great interest in the understanding and quantification of such phenomena, including the simulation of the instantaneous amount of gases evolved in a foaming process. In addition, a brief discussion on the methodology related to the mathematical modeling of TGA data is presented, taking into account the complex thermal behaviour of the ADC.
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The labour force engaged in the agricultural sector is declining over time, and one can observe the reallocation of labour from family members to hired workers. Using farm-level data, this paper analyses the on-farm labour structure in Greece and assesses the factors driving its evolution over the period 1990-2008. The impact of agricultural policies and farm characteristics is examined in a dynamic panel analysis. Family and hired labour are found to be substitutes rather than complements, while agricultural support measures appear to negatively affect demand for both family and hired labour. Decoupled payments and subsidies on crops are found to have a significant impact on both sources of labour, as well as subsidies for rural development that do not favour on-farm labour use. The paper also finds that structural labour adjustments are the result of farm characteristics, such as farm size and location. The results are robust to various estimation techniques and specifications.
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Dynamic spatial analysis addresses computational aspects of space–time processing. This paper describes the development of a spatial analysis tool and modelling framework that together offer a solution for simulating landscape processes. A better approach to integrating landscape spatial analysis with Geographical Information Systems is advocated in this paper. Enhancements include special spatial operators and map algebra language constructs to handle dispersal and advective flows over landscape surfaces. These functional components to landscape modelling are developed in a modular way and are linked together in a modelling framework that performs dynamic simulation. The concepts and modelling framework are demonstrated using a hydrological modelling example. The approach provides a modelling environment for scientists and land resource managers to write and to visualize spatial process models with ease.
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Two nuclear crises recently haunted the Korean peninsula, one in 1993/4, the other in 2002/3. In each case the events-were strikingly similar: North Korea made public its ambition to acquire nuclear weapons and withdrew from the Nonproliferation Treaty. Then the situation rapidly deteriorated until the peninsular was literally on the verge of war. The dangers of North Korea's actions, often interpreted as nuclear brinkmanship, are evident. and much discussed, but not so the underlying patterns that have shaped the conflict in the first place. This article sheds light on some of them. It examines the role of the United States in the crisis, arguing that Washington's inability to see North Korea as anything but a threatening 'rogue state' seriously hinders both an adequate understanding and possible resolution of the conflict. Particularly significant is the current policy of pre-emptive strikes against rogue states, for it reinforces half a century of American nuclear threats towards North Korea. The problematic role of these threats has been largely obscured, not least because the highly technical discourse of security analysis has managed to present the strategic situation on the peninsula in a manner that attributes responsibility for the crisis solely to North Korea's actions, even if the situation is in reality far more complex and interactive.
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Thermosetting blends of a biodegradable poly(ethylene glycol)-type epoxy resin (PEG-ER) and poly(epsilon-caprolactone) (PCL) were prepared via an in situ curing reaction of poly(ethylene glycol) diglycidyl ether (PEGDGE) and maleic anhydride (MAH) in the presence of PCL. The miscibility, phase behavior, crystallization, and morphology of these blends were investigated. The uncured PCL/PEGDGE blends were miscible, mainly because of the entropic contribution, as the molecular weight of PEGDGE was very low. The crystallization and melting behavior of both PCL and the poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) segment of PEGDGE were less affected in the uncured PCL/PEGDGE blends because of the very close glass-transition temperatures of PCL and PEGDGE. However, the cured PCL/PEG-ER blends were immiscible and exhibited two separate glass transitions, as revealed by differential scanning calorimetry and dynamic mechanical analysis. There existed two phases in the cured PCL/PEG-ER blends, that is, a PCL-rich phase and a PEG-ER crosslinked phase composed of an MAH-cured PEGDGE network. The crystallization of PCL was slightly enhanced in the cured blends because of the phase-separated nature; meanwhile, the PEG segment was highly restricted in the crosslinked network and was noncrystallizable in the cured blends. The phase structure and morphology of the cured PCL/PEG-ER blends were examined with scanning electron microscopy; a variety of phase morphologies were observed that depended on the blend composition. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Research in conditioning (all the processes of preparation for competition) has used group research designs, where multiple athletes are observed at one or more points in time. However, empirical reports of large inter-individual differences in response to conditioning regimens suggest that applied conditioning research would greatly benefit from single-subject research designs. Single-subject research designs allow us to find out the extent to which a specific conditioning regimen works for a specific athlete, as opposed to the average athlete, who is the focal point of group research designs. The aim of the following review is to outline the strategies and procedures of single-subject research as they pertain to.. the assessment of conditioning for individual athletes. The four main experimental designs in single-subject research are: the AB design, reversal (withdrawal) designs and their extensions, multiple baseline designs and alternating treatment designs. Visual and statistical analyses commonly used to analyse single-subject data, and advantages and limitations are discussed. Modelling of multivariate single-subject data using techniques such as dynamic factor analysis and structural equation modelling may identify individualised models of conditioning leading to better prediction of performance. Despite problems associated with data analyses in single-subject research (e.g. serial dependency), sports scientists should use single-subject research designs in applied conditioning research to understand how well an intervention (e.g. a training method) works and to predict performance for a particular athlete.
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Thermosetting blends of an aliphatic epoxy resin and a hydroxyl-functionalized hyperbranched polymer (HBP), aliphatic hyperbranched polyester Boltorn H40, were prepared using 4,4'-diaminodiphenylmethane (DDM) as the curing agent. The phase behavior and morphology of the DDM-cured epoxy/HBP blends with HBP content up to 40 wt% were investigated by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The cured epoxy/HBP blends are immiscible and exhibit two separate glass transitions, as revealed by DMA. The SEM observation showed that there exist two phases in the cured blends, which is an epoxy-rich phase and an HBP-rich phase, which is responsible for the two separate glass transitions. The phase morphology was observed to be dependent on the blend composition. For the blends with HBP content up to 10 wt%, discrete HBP domains are dispersed in the continuous cured epoxy matrix, whereas the cured blend with 40 wt% HBP exhibits a combined morphology of connected globules and bicominuous phase structure. Porous epoxy thermosets with continuous open structures on the order of 100-300 nm were formed after the HBP-rich phase was extracted with solvent from the cured blend with 40 wt% HBP. The DSC study showed that the curing rate is not obviously affected in the epoxy/HBP blends with HBP content up to 40 wt %. The activation energy values obtained are not remarkably changed in the blends; the addition of HBP to epoxy resin thus does not change the mechanism of cure reaction of epoxy resin with DDM. (c) 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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This article examines ways in which art can help broaden understandings of contemporary security challenges, especially in view of the limits of conventional forms of strategic and policy analysis. The article focuses especially on responses to 9/11 in literature, the visual arts, architecture, and music, and considers some epistemological questions about the status of art as a way of knowing political events, like those of 9/11, that escape state-based forms of security analysis.