Simple software processes and tests improve the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Models are abstractions of reality that have predetermined limits (often not consciously thought through) on what problem domains the models can be used to explore. These limits are determined by the range of observed data used to construct and validate the model. However, it is important to remember that operating the model beyond these limits, one of the reasons for building the model in the first place, potentially brings unwanted behaviour and thus reduces the usefulness of the model. Our experience with the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), a farming systems model, has led us to adapt techniques from the disciplines of modelling and software development to create a model development process. This process is simple, easy to follow, and brings a much higher level of stability to the development effort, which then delivers a much more useful model. A major part of the process relies on having a range of detailed model tests (unit, simulation, sensibility, validation) that exercise a model at various levels (sub-model, model and simulation). To underline the usefulness of testing, we examine several case studies where simulated output can be compared with simple relationships. For example, output is compared with crop water use efficiency relationships gleaned from the literature to check that the model reproduces the expected function. Similarly, another case study attempts to reproduce generalised hydrological relationships found in the literature. This paper then describes a simple model development process (using version control, automated testing and differencing tools), that will enhance the reliability and usefulness of a model.

Pathophysiological factors of irritable bowel syndrome, and the effects of probiotic supplementation

Gastrointestinal symptoms and impaired quality of life caused by irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) affect up to 20% of the adult population worldwide. The exact aetiology and pathophysiology of IBS are incompletely understood. Clinical studies suggest that supplementation with certain probiotics may be beneficial in IBS, but there is not enough evidence to make general recommendations. The aim of this thesis was to investigate microbiota- and mucosa-associated pathophysiological factors of IBS, and to evaluate the long-term effects of multispecies probiotic supplementation on symptoms, quality of life, intestinal microbiota and systemic inflammatory markers in IBS. The intestinal microbiota composition in IBS patients and healthy control subjects was analysed by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR). Significantly lower counts for the Clostridium coccoides and the Bifidobacterium catenulatum groups were found in IBS compared to controls. Quantitative differences also appeared in subgroup analysis based on the predominant bowel habit: diarrhoea patients harboured significantly lower numbers of Lactobacillus spp. than the constipation-predominant patients, while higher counts for Veillonella spp. were detected in constipation-predominant patients compared to healthy controls. Analysis of mucosal biopsies by a metabolomic approach revealed multiple differences between patients and controls. The most prominent finding was an upregulation of specific lipid species, principally lysophosphatidylcholines and ceramides, in IBS. The effects of multispecies probiotic supplementation with Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG, Lactobacillus rhamnosus Lc705, Propionibacterium freudenreichii subsp. shermanii JS, and Bifidobacterium breve Bb99 or Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis Bb12 was evaluated in two, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials. Compared to placebo, the probiotic supplementation significantly reduced the total symptoms of IBS. No effects on bowel habit were seen. Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is reduced in patients with IBS in comparison with the Finnish population on the whole. The probiotic supplementation improved one IBS-specific domain of quality of life (bowel symptoms), whereas no other effects on HRQOL were seen. The probiotics had no major effects on the predominant microbiota as measured by qPCR, but a microarray-based analysis suggested that the probiotic consumption stabilised the microbiota. No effects on serum sensitive-CRP or cytokines were detected. In conclusion, alterations in the microbiota composition and in the mucosal metabolite profile are potential pathophysiological factors of IBS. Multispecies probiotic supplementation alleviates the gastrointestinal symptoms of IBS, and improves the bowel symptoms domain of HRQOL. Probiotic supplementation in IBS is associated with a stabilisation of microbiota, but it does not influence systemic inflammatory markers.

Ecological restoration of forests in Fennoscandia : Defining reference stand structures and immediate effects of restoration.

The first aim of this thesis was to explore the structural characteristics of near-natural forests and to quantify how human utilization has changed them. For this, we examined the stand characteristics in Norway spruce Picea abies (L.) Karst-dominated old-growth stands in northwestern Russia and in old Scots pine Pinus sylvestris L.-dominated stands in three regions from southern Finland to northwestern Russia. In the second study, we also compared stands with different degrees of human impact, from near-natural stands and stands selectively cut in the past to managed stands. Secondly, we used an experimental approach to study the short-term effects of different restorative treatments on forest structure and regeneration in managed Picea abies stands in southern Finland. Restorative treatments consisted of a partial cut combined with three levels of coarse woody debris retention, and a fire/no-fire treatment. In addition, we examined burned and unburned reference stands without cutting treatments. Results from near-natural Picea abies forests emphasize the dynamic character of old-growth forests, the variety of late-successional forest structures, and the fact that extended time periods are needed to attain certain late-successional stages with specific structural and habitat attributes, such as large-diameter deciduous trees and a variety of deadwood. The results from old Pinus sylvestris-dominated forests showed that human impact in the form of forest utilization and fire exclusion has strongly modified and reduced the structural complexity of stands. Consequently, small protected forest fragments in Finland may not serve as valid natural reference areas for forest restoration. However, results from the restoration experiment showed that early-successional natural stand characteristics can be restored to structurally impoverished managed Picea abies stands, despite a significant portion of wood volume being harvested. A variety of restoration methods is needed, due to differences in the condition of the forest when restoration is initiated and the variety of successional stages of forest structures after anthropogenic and natural disturbances. Keywords: dead wood, disturbance dynamic, fire, near-natural stand, rehabilitation, succession

Latitudinal and seasonal effects on growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus)

The growth of the Australian eastern king prawn (Melicertus plebejus) is understood in greater detail by quantifying the latitudinal effect. The latitudinal effect is the change in the species’ growth rate during migration. Mark–recapture data (N = 1635, latitude 22.21°S–34.00°S) presents northerly movement of the eastern king prawn, with New South Wales prawns showing substantial average movement of 140 km (standard deviation: 176 km) north. A generalized von Bertalanffy growth model framework is used to incorporate the latitudinal effect together with the canonical seasonal effect. Applying this method to eastern king prawn mark–recapture data guarantees consistent estimates for the latitudinal and seasonal effects. For M. plebejus, it was found that growth rate peaks on 25 and 29 January for males and females, respectively; is at a minimum on 27 and 31 July, respectively; and that the shape parameter, k (per year), changes by –0.0236 and –0.0556 every 1 degree of latitude south increase for males and females, respectively.

Selenium and its effects on growth, yield and tuber quality in potato

Selenium (Se) has been demonstrated to be an essential trace element for maintenance of animal and human health. Although it has not been confirmed to be an essential micronutrient in higher plants, there is increasing evidence that Se functions as an antioxidant in plants. Selenium has been shown to exert a beneficial effect on crop growth and promotes stress tolerance at low concentrations. However, the specific physiological mechanisms that underlie the positive effects of Se in plants have not been clearly elucidated. The aims of this study were to determine the Se concentration in potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and the effects of Se on the accumulation of carbohydrates, growth and yield in potato plants. An additional aim was to study the impact of Se on the total glycoalkaloid concentration in immature potato tubers. The distribution of Se in different biochemical Se fractions and the effect of storage on the Se concentration were studied in Se-enriched tubers. Furthermore, the effect of Se on raw darkening and translocation of Se from seed tubers to the next tuber generation was investigated. Due to the established anti-ageing properties of Se, it was of interest to study if Se affects physiological age and growth vigour of seed tubers. The Se concentrations in the upper leaves, roots, stolons and tubers of potato increased with increasing Se supplementation. The highest Se concentration was reached in young upper leaves, roots and stolons, indicating that added selenate was efficiently utilized and taken up at an early stage. During the growing period the Se concentration declined in the aerial parts, roots and stolons of potato plants whereas an intensive accumulation took place in immature and mature tubers. Selenium increased carbohydrate accumulation in the young upper leaves and in stolons, roots and tubers at maturity. This could not be explained by increased production of photoassimilates as net photosynthesis did not differ among Se treatments. The Se treated plants produced higher tuber yields than control plants, and at the highest Se concentration (0.3 mg kg-1) lower numbers of larger tubers were harvested. Increased yield of Se treated plants suggested that Se may enhance the allocation of photoassimilates for tuber growth, acting as a strong sink for both Se and for carbohydrates. Similarly as for other plant species, the positive impact of Se on the yield of potato plants could be related to its antioxidative effect in delaying senescence. The highest Se supplementation (0.9 mg kg-1) slightly decreased the glycoalkaloid concentration of immature tubers. However, at this level the Se concentration in tubers was about 20 µg g-1 DW. A 100 g consumption of potato would provide about 500 mg of Se, which exceeds the upper safe intake level of 400 µg per day for human dietary. The low Se applications (0.0035 and 0.1 mg kg-1) diminished and retarded the degree of raw darkening in tubers stored for one and eight months, which can be attributed to the antioxidative properties of Se. The storage for 1 to 12 months did not affect the Se concentrations of tubers. In the Se enriched tubers Se was allocated to the organic Se fraction, indicating that it was incorporated into organic compounds in tubers. Elevated Se concentration in the next-generation tubers produced by the Se enriched seed tubers indicated that Se could be translocated from the seed tubers to the progeny. In the seed tubers stored for 8 months, at high levels, Se had some positive effects on the growth vigour of sprouts, but Se had no consistent effect on the growth vigour of seed tubers of optimal physiological age. These results indicate that Se is a beneficial trace element in potato plants that exerts a positive effect on yield formation and improves the processing and storage quality of table potato tubers. These positive effects of Se are, however, dependent on the Se concentration and the age of the potato plant and tuber.

Separate and interacting effects within the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) are associated with schizophrenia

Several lines of evidence have implicated the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) gene as a candidate for schizophrenia (SZ) susceptibility, not only because it encodes a key dopamine catabolic enzyme but also because it maps to the velocardiofacial syndrome region of chromosome 22q11 which has long been associated with SZ predisposition. The interest in COMT as a candidate SZ risk factor has led to numerous case-control and family-based studies, with the majority placing emphasis on examining a functional Val/Met polymorphism within this enzyme. Unfortunately, these studies have continually produced conflicting results. To assess the genetic contribution of other COMT variants to SZ susceptibility, we investigated three single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs737865, rs4633, rs165599) in addition to the Val/Met variant (rs4680) in a highly selected sample of Australian Caucasian families containing 107 patients with SZ. The Val/Met and rs4633 variants showed nominally significant associations with SZ (P<0.05), although neither of the individual SNPs remained significant after adjusting for multiple testing (most significant P=0.1174). However, haplotype analyses showed strong evidence of an association; the most significant being the three-marker haplotype rs737865-rs4680-rs165599 (global P=0.0022), which spans more than 26 kb. Importantly, conditional analyses indicated the presence of two separate and interacting effects within this haplotype, irrespective of gender. In addition, our results indicate the Val/Met polymorphism is not disease-causing and is simply in strong linkage disequilibrium with a causative effect, which interacts with another as yet unidentified variant approximately 20 kb away. These results may help explain the inconsistent results reported on the Val/Met polymorphism and have important implications for future investigations into the role of COMT in SZ susceptibility.

Modifications of surface materials and their effects on cleanability as studied by radiochemical methods

Modifications of surface materials and their effects on cleanability have important impacts in many fields of activity. In this study the primary aim was to develop radiochemical methods suitable for evaluating cleanability in material research for different environments. Another aim was to investigate the effects of surface modifications on cleanabilitity and surface properties of plastics, ceramics, concrete materials and also their coatings in conditions simulating their typical environments. Several new 51Cr and 14C labelled soils were developed for testing situations. The new radiochemical methods developed were suitable for examining different surface materials and different soil types, providing quantitative information about the amount of soil on surfaces. They also take into account soil soaked into surfaces. The supporting methods colorimetric determination and ATP bioluminescence provided semi-quantitative results. The results from the radiochemical and supporting methods partly correlated with each other. From a material research point of view numerous new materials were evaluated. These included both laboratory-made model materials and commercial products. Increasing the amount of plasticizer decreased the cleanability of poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) materials. Microstructured surfaces of plastics improved the cleanability of PVC from particle soils, whereas for oil soil microstructuring reduced the cleanability. In the case of glazed ceramic materials, coatings affected the cleanability. The roughness of surfaces correlated with cleanability from particle soils and the cleanability from oil soil correlated with the contact angles. Organic particle soil was removed more efficiently from TiO2-coated ceramic surfaces after UV-radiation than without UV treatment, whereas no effect was observed on the cleanability of oil soil. Coatings improved the cleanability of concrete flooring materials intended for use in animal houses.

Separating grazing and rainfall effects at regional scale using remote sensing imagery: A dynamic reference-cover method

Remote detection of management-related trend in the presence of inter-annual climatic variability in the rangelands is difficult. Minimally disturbed reference areas provide a useful guide, but suitable benchmarks are usually difficult to identify. We describe a method that uses a unique conceptual framework to identify reference areas from multitemporal sequences of ground cover derived from Landsat TM and ETM+ imagery. The method does not require ground-based reference sites nor GIS layers about management. We calculate a minimum ground cover image across all years to identify locations of most persistent ground cover in years of lowest rainfall. We then use a moving window approach to calculate the difference between the window's central pixel and its surrounding reference pixels. This difference estimates ground-cover change between successive below-average rainfall years, which provides a seasonally interpreted measure of management effects. We examine the approach's sensitivity to window size and to cover-index percentiles used to define persistence. The method successfully detected management-related change in ground cover in Queensland tropical savanna woodlands in two case studies: (1) a grazing trial where heavy stocking resulted in substantial decline in ground cover in small paddocks, and (2) commercial paddocks where wet-season spelling (destocking) resulted in increased ground cover. At a larger scale, there was broad agreement between our analysis of ground-cover change and ground-based land condition change for commercial beef properties with different a priori ratings of initial condition, but there was also some disagreement where changing condition reflected pasture composition rather than ground cover. We conclude that the method is suitably robust to analyse grazing effects on ground cover across the 1.3 x 10(6) km(2) of Queensland's rangelands. Crown Copyright (c) 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal effects of grazing management and rainfall on the vertebrate fauna of a tropical savanna

Grazing by domestic livestock is one of the most widespread uses of the rangelands of Australia. There is limited information on the effects of grazing by domestic livestock on the vertebrate fauna of Australia and the establishment of a long-term grazing experiment in north-eastern Queensland at Wambiana provided an opportunity to attempt an examination of the changes in vertebrate fauna as a consequence of the manipulation of stocking rates. The aim was to identify what the relative effects of vegetation type, stocking rate and other landscape-scale environmental factors were on the patterns recorded. Sixteen 1-ha sites were established within three replicated treatments (moderate, heavy and variable stocking rates). The sites were sampled in the wet and dry seasons in 1999-2000 (T-0) and again in 2003-04 (T-1). All paddocks of the treatments were burnt in 1999. Average annual rainfall declined markedly between the two sampling periods, which made interpretation of the data difficult. A total of 127 species of vertebrate fauna comprising five amphibian, 83 bird, 27 reptile and 12 mammal species were recorded. There was strong separation in faunal composition from T-0 to T-1 although changes in mean compositional dissimilarity between the grazing stocking rate treatments were less well defined. There was a relative change in abundance of 24 bird, four mammal and five reptile species from T-0 to T-1. The generalised linear modelling identified that, in the T-1 data, there was significant variation in the abundance of 16 species explained by the grazing and vegetation factors. This study demonstrated that vertebrate fauna assemblage did change and that these changes were attributable to the interplay between the stocking rates, the vegetation types on the sites surveyed, the burning of the experimental paddocks and the decrease in rainfall over the course of the two surveys. It is recommended that the experiment is sampled again but that the focus should be on a rapid survey of abundant taxa (i.e. birds and reptiles) to allow an increase in the frequency of sampling and replication of the data. This would help to articulate more clearly the trajectory of vertebrate change due to the relative effects of stocking rates compared with wider landscape environmental changes. Given the increasing focus on pastoral development in northern Australia, any opportunity to incorporate the collection of data on biodiversity into grazing manipulation experiments should be taken for the assessment of the effects of land management on faunal species.

Environmental and fishing effects on the dynamics of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) in Moreton Bay (Australia)

This analysis of the variations of brown tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) catch in Moreton Bay multispecies trawl fishery estimated catchability using a delay difference model. It integrated several factors responsible for variations in catchability: targeting of fishing effort, increasing fishing power and changing availability. An analysis of covariance was used to define fishing events targeted at brown tiger prawns. A general linear model estimated inter-annual variations of fishing power. Temperature-induced changes in prawn behaviour played an important role on the dynamics of this fishery. Maximum likelihood estimates of targeted catchability (4.09 ± 0.42 × 10−4 boat-day−1) were twice as large as non-targeted catchability (1.86 ± 0.25 × 10−4 boat-day−1). The causes of recent declines in fishing effort in this fishery were discussed.

Acute and chronic effects of dietary nitrate supplementation on blood pressure and the physiological responses to moderate-intensity and incremental exercise

Dietary nitrate (NO3−) supplementation with beetroot juice (BR) over 4–6 days has been shown to reduce the O2 cost of submaximal exercise and to improve exercise tolerance. However, it is not known whether shorter (or longer) periods of supplementation have similar (or greater) effects. We therefore investigated the effects of acute and chronic NO3− supplementation on resting blood pressure (BP) and the physiological responses to moderate-intensity exercise and ramp incremental cycle exercise in eight healthy subjects. Following baseline tests, the subjects were assigned in a balanced crossover design to receive BR (0.5 l/day; 5.2 mmol of NO3−/day) and placebo (PL; 0.5 l/day low-calorie juice cordial) treatments. The exercise protocol (two moderate-intensity step tests followed by a ramp test) was repeated 2.5 h following first ingestion (0.5 liter) and after 5 and 15 days of BR and PL. Plasma nitrite concentration (baseline: 454 ± 81 nM) was significantly elevated (+39% at 2.5 h postingestion; +25% at 5 days; +46% at 15 days; P < 0.05) and systolic and diastolic BP (baseline: 127 ± 6 and 72 ± 5 mmHg, respectively) were reduced by ∼4% throughout the BR supplementation period (P < 0.05). Compared with PL, the steady-state V̇o2 during moderate exercise was reduced by ∼4% after 2.5 h and remained similarly reduced after 5 and 15 days of BR (P < 0.05). The ramp test peak power and the work rate at the gas exchange threshold (baseline: 322 ± 67 W and 89 ± 15 W, respectively) were elevated after 15 days of BR (331 ± 68 W and 105 ± 28 W; P < 0.05) but not PL (323 ± 68 W and 84 ± 18 W). These results indicate that dietary NO3− supplementation acutely reduces BP and the O2 cost of submaximal exercise and that these effects are maintained for at least 15 days if supplementation is continued.

Chickpeas! Varietal performance, wet feet and root rot, virus and salinity effects in 2012, Ascochyta management, seed quality, issues in central Queensland and effects of desiccating too early with glyphosate on seed germination

Take home messages: Plant only high quality seed that has been germ and vigour tested and treated with a registered seed dressing Avoid poorly drained paddocks and those with a history of lucerne, medics or chickpea Phytophthora root rot, PRR; do not grow Boundary if you even suspect a PRR risk Select best variety suited to soil type, farming system and disease risk Beware Ascochyta: follow recommendations for your variety and district Minimise risk of virus by retaining stubble, planting on time and at optimal rate, controlling weeds and ensuring adequate plant nutrition Test soil to determine risk of salinity and sodicity – do not plant chickpeas if ECe > 1.0-1.3 dS/m. Beware early desiccation of seed crops – know how to tell when 90-95% seeds are mature