Characterising and predicting cyber attacks using the Cyber Attacker Model Profile (CAMP)

Purpose Ethnographic studies of cyber attacks typically aim to explain a particular profile of attackers in qualitative terms. The purpose of this paper is to formalise some of the approaches to build a Cyber Attacker Model Profile (CAMP) that can be used to characterise and predict cyber attacks. Design/methodology/approach The paper builds a model using social and economic independent or predictive variables from several eastern European countries and benchmarks indicators of cybercrime within the Australian financial services system. Findings The paper found a very strong link between perceived corruption and GDP in two distinct groups of countries – corruption in Russia was closely linked to the GDP of Belarus, Moldova and Russia, while corruption in Lithuania was linked to GDP in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Ukraine. At the same time corruption in Russia and Ukraine were also closely linked. These results support previous research that indicates a strong link between been legitimate economy and the black economy in many countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic states. The results of the regression analysis suggest that a highly skilled workforce which is mobile and working in an environment of high perceived corruption in the target countries is related to increases in cybercrime even within Australia. It is important to note that the data used for the dependent and independent variables were gathered over a seven year time period, which included large economic shocks such as the global financial crisis. Originality/value This is the first paper to use a modelling approach to directly show the relationship between various social, economic and demographic factors in the Baltic states and Eastern Europe, and the level of card skimming and card not present fraud in Australia.

Effect of soil properties on the response of pile to underground explosion

This paper develops and presents a fully coupled non-linear finite element procedure to treat the response of piles to ground shocks induced by underground explosions. The Arbitrary Lagrange Euler coupling formulation with proper state material parameters and equations are used in the study. Pile responses in four different soil types, viz, saturated soil, partially saturated soil and loose and dense dry soils are investigated and the results compared. Numerical results are validated by comparing with those from a standard design manual. Blast wave propagation in soils, horizontal pile deformations and damages in the pile are presented. The pile damage presented through plastic strain diagrams will enable the vulnerability assessment of the piles under the blast scenarios considered. The numerical results indicate that the blast performance of the piles embedded in saturated soil and loose dry soil are more severe than those in piles embedded in partially saturated soil and dense dry soil. Present findings should serve as a benchmark reference for future analysis and design.

Revisiting the adoption of innovative products on Australian road infrastructure projects

Construction product innovation can exert a positive influence on project and industry performance. However, guidance is scarce on product innovation diffusion for road infrastructure, in contrast to the large body of literature on the manufacturing industry. A conceptual framework is proposed to understand these processes. Advice is given to managers based on the framework and a large quantitative survey. The framework focuses on contextual characteristics that influence the decision to adopt new-to-industry product innovation, as part of a diffusion process. Case study data are interpreted within the revised framework to test its value and disaggregate the broad obstacles to innovation. A large quantitative survey was then conducted to rank the relative importance of the obstacles constraining the adoption of innovative products on road construction projects. The three most important obstacles were found to be: (1) overemphasis on up-front project costs during tender stage; (2) disagreement over who carries the risk of new product failure; and (3) adversarial contract relations. The results suggest refinements to the conceptual framework to make it a more powerful tool for categorizing and analysing construction innovation obstacles. Results also suggest well-resourced repeat interactions within complementary procurement and regulatory systems will enhance the project teams’ ability to recognize and address innovation obstacles. Further, improved relationships are expected to decrease the need for an overly conservative approach to product approval and prescriptive specifications.

Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Dalby Shopping Precinct Survey Report : Consumer Attitudes towards Proposed Extended Trading Hours at Dalby

Data was collected to measure shopper’s attitudes toward the proposed Sunday and limited public holiday trading in Dalby. Survey questionnaires were conducted between 29th August to 31st August at Coles Dalby and Dalby Shoppingtown Plaza. In total, 150 respondents participated in the survey. Overall, the findings suggest that most respondents, especially males, couples with children, fulltime workers and those under the age of 49 years, embrace the proposed Sunday and limited holiday trading in Dalby. While there are concerns over increasing competition for smaller retailers who already trade on Sundays, a majority of respondents indicated it would suit their lifestyle, be convenient, provide more jobs, increase trade for smaller retailers within the area, reduce queues and congestion observed on Saturdays. The majority of those shoppers that indicated they currently did some shopping on a Sunday reported they would continue to support smaller retailers who currently trade on Sundays and some public holidays, if changes came about. Those opposed to changes to trading hours indicated a belief that existing trading hours were sufficient. Most people indicated the proposed extension of trading hours would not harm the community or have a negative, detrimental effect on themselves or their family. The main findings presented in the report are as follows: - 96.8% of respondents surveyed reported to be local, permanent residents of Dalby. - Residents of Dalby visited shopping centres and stores on average 2.8 times per week. This frequency is proportionately higher than the average Australian shopping behaviour at 2.5 times per week (Roy Morgan Supermarket Monitor). - It was determined that weekday evenings (after 5 pm) were the busiest times for shopping, with Saturday the next most popular day to shop. - 68% of respondents support the proposal of the extended trading hours at supermarkets, department stores and the shopping centre in Dalby, 26% oppose and 6% are unsure. - 90% of the respondents agreed that residents of Dalby should be allowed the same choice as other regional towns and cities in supporting/opposing changes to trading hours. The remaining 10% expressed a disagreement. - A larger percentage of males supported the proposal for Sunday and limited holiday trading. Of all the males surveyed, 80% were in support, 15% were opposed and 5% unsure. 60% of female respondents support the proposal, while 33% oppose it and 5% were unsure. - The highest percentage of support exists in fulltime workers with 90% of those respondents supporting the proposal. - In contrast, the lowest percentage of support was found in the non-working (retired/unemployed) respondents, where 67% opposed the application. - It was noted that 71% of respondents employed casually also indicated opposition against proposed changes. Further questioning identified an underlying concern from casually employed persons that Sunday trade would force them onto Sunday work rosters. - 92% of shared households expressed support for Sunday and limited public holiday trading, while 83% of both couples with children and single parent with children at home also supported the application. - 72% of the respondents often find it necessary to do some grocery shopping in Dalby on a Sunday. 76% of shoppers who indicated they already undertook some shopping on Sunday, indicated would continue to shop and support smaller retailers. - Of the respondents surveyed, 44% have travelled outside of Dalby on a Sunday to shop. This indicates that such residents find it necessary to undertake some shopping on a Sunday and in order to do so, drive an hour to Toowoomba in order to access a range of retailers. - The most cited reasons for supporting Sunday and limited public holiday trade were; ‘More choice about when I shop and that is convenient’ (69%), ‘Sunday trade will create job opportunities’ (71%), ‘Sunday trade will be helpful when preparing school lunches and getting ready for the working week’ (62%), and ‘Sunday trade will reduce shopping congestion during peak shopping periods’ (62%) - The most cited reasons for opposing the proposed changes are that ‘Sunday trade may increase competition for small retailers who already trade on Sunday’ (41%), ‘Shops are already open 6 days a week which is enough’ (31%), and ‘Sunday is a day of rest or a religious day and shopping should not be allowed’ (23%). - 97% of respondents indicated they would not change their sporting or social commitment if changes to trading hours were implemented.

Mt Isa Shopping Precinct Survey Report : Consumer Attitudes towards Proposed Extended Trading Hours at Mt Isa

Data was collected to measure shopper’s attitudes toward the proposed Sunday and limited public holiday trading in Mt Isa. Survey questionnaires were conducted between 15th August to 17th August at Kmart Plaza, Woolworths, Miles St. and Mt Isa Plaza. In total, 300 respondents participated in the survey. Overall, the findings suggest that most respondents, especially males, couples with children and fulltime workers, embrace the proposed Sunday and limited holiday trading in Mt Isa. While there are concerns over increasing competition for smaller retailers who already trade on Sundays, a majority of respondents indicated it would suit their lifestyle, be convenient, provide more jobs, increase trade for smaller retailers within the area, reduce queues and congestion, and offer a less expensive grocery shopping. The majority of those shoppers that indicated they currently did some shopping on a Sunday reported they would continue to support smaller retailers who currently trade on Sundays and some public holidays, if changes came about. Those opposed to changes to trading hours also indicated a belief that existing trading hours were sufficient. Most people indicated the proposed extension of trading hours would not harm the community or have a negative, detrimental effect on themselves or their family. The main findings presented in the report are as follows: - 96% of respondents surveyed reported to be local, permanent residents of Mt Isa. - Residents of Mt Isa visited shopping centres and stores on average 2.4 times per week. This mirrors the average Australian shopping behaviour at 2.5 times per week (Roy Morgan Supermarket Monitor) - It was determined that Saturday was the busiest day for shopping with a majority of respondents indicating they visited stores on that day of the week. - 71% of respondents support the proposal of extended trading hours at shopping centres in Mt Isa, 25% oppose and 4% are unsure. - 87% of the respondents agreed that residents of Mt Isa should be allowed the same choice as other regional towns and cities in supporting/opposing changes to trading hours. The remaining 13% expressed a disagreement. - A larger percentage of males supported the proposal for Sunday and limited holiday trading. Of all the males surveyed, 81% were in support, 17% were opposed and 2% unsure. By contrast, 64% of female respondents support the proposal, while 31% oppose it and 5% are unsure. - The highest percentage of support exists in fulltime workers with 85% of those respondents supporting the proposal. In contrast, the lowest percentage of support was found in the non-working respondents, where 62% opposed the application. - 78% of couples living with children at home expressed support for Sunday and limited public holiday trading, while 60% of couples without children also supported the application. - Of the respondents surveyed, virtually none (less than 1%) have travelled outside of Mt Isa on a Sunday to shop. This indicates that due to the remote and isolated location of this town, residents do not have the option to travel reasonable distances in order to access a range of retailers. - 70% of the respondents often find it necessary to do some grocery shopping in Mt Isa on a Sunday. - Convenience is cited as the major reason for support (79%) followed by lifestyle (75%). - The most cited reasons for supporting ‘it would be convenient’ (81%), ‘It may create more jobs’ (77%), ‘It may reduce congestion during busy shopping periods’ (74%, and ‘It would make it easier for working families with kids’ (74%). - The most cited reasons for opposing the proposed changes are that ‘It will disadvantage smaller businesses’ (44%), ‘It is unnecessary’ (29%). - 72% of shoppers who indicated they already undertook some shopping on Sunday, indicated would continue to shop and support smaller retailers. - 98% of respondents indicated they would not change their sporting or social commitment if changes to trading hours were implemented.

Qld flood inquest : ‘I could see his arms moving, he was trying to swim’

"Despite the 10 months of grieving for those lost in Queensland’s January floods, new evidence produced during the coronial inquest into the 22 deaths and three disappearances has revealed new shocks for the bereaved families. Brisbane Coroner’s Court yesterday was introduced to a series of high-tech Google Earth animations backed by funereal music, explaining the scope of the unfolding tragedy, which swept away husbands, wives, children and grandparents in less than three hours on the afternoon of January 10 this year. The court was also told of the extensive search for human remains, of 131 kilometres of creeks and rivers from Spring Bluff to Brisbane and hundreds of dams that were searched three times by police divers, 250 army personnel and 200 police."

Perceived barriers and facilitators to increasing physical activity among people with musculoskeletal disorders : a qualitative investigation to inform intervention development

Purpose Musculoskeletal conditions can impair people’s ability to undertake physical activity as they age. The purpose of this qualitative study was to investigate perceived barriers and facilitators to undertaking physical activity reported by patients accessing ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Patients and methods A questionnaire with open-ended items was administered to patients (n=217, 73.3% of 296 eligible) from three clinics providing ambulatory services for nonsurgical treatment of musculoskeletal disorders. The survey included questions to capture the clinical and demographic characteristics of the sample. It also comprised two open-ended questions requiring qualitative responses. The first asked the participant to describe factors that made physical activity more difficult, and the second asked which factors made it easier for them to be physically active. Participants’ responses to the two open-ended questions were read, coded, and thematically analyzed independently by two researchers, with a third researcher available to arbitrate any unresolved disagreement. Results The mean (standard deviation) age of participants was 53 (15) years; n=113 (52.1%) were male. A total of 112 (51.6%) participants reported having three or more health conditions; n=140 (64.5%) were classified as overweight or obese. Five overarching themes describing perceived barriers for undertaking physical activity were "health conditions", "time restrictions", "poor physical condition", "emotional, social, and psychological barriers", and "access to exercise opportunities". Perceived physical activity facilitators were also aligned under five themes, namely "improved health state", "social, emotional, and behavioral supports", "access to exercise environment", "opportunities for physical activities", and "time availability". Conclusion It was clear from the breadth of the data that meaningful supports and interventions must be multidimensional. They should have the capacity to address a variety of physical, functional, social, psychological, motivational, environmental, lifestyle, and other perceived barriers. It would appear that for such interventions to be effective, they should be flexible enough to address a variety of specific concerns.

What roles do contemporaneous and cumulative incomes play in the income–child health gradient for young children? Evidence from an Australian Panel

The literature to date shows that children from poorer households tend to have worse health than their peers, and the gap between them grows with age. We investigate whether and how health shocks (as measured by the onset of chronic conditions) contribute to the income–child health gradient and whether the contemporaneous or cumulative effects of income play important mitigating roles. We exploit a rich panel dataset with three panel waves called the Longitudinal Study of Australian children. Given the availability of three waves of data, we are able to apply a range of econometric techniques (e.g. fixed and random effects) to control for unobserved heterogeneity. The paper makes several contributions to the extant literature. First, it shows that an apparent income gradient becomes relatively attenuated in our dataset when the cumulative and contemporaneous effects of household income are distinguished econometrically. Second, it demonstrates that the income–child health gradient becomes statistically insignificant when controlling for parental health and health-related behaviours or unobserved heterogeneity.

Incident reporting culture in recreational hot air ballooning

Hot air ballooning incidents are relatively rare; however, they have a high potential to be fatal. In order to inform appropriate safety interventions it is first necessary to understand the causal factors which lead to incidents and near-misses, which requires a formal incident report database. The Australian Balloon Federation (ABF) advocates the reporting of recreational hot air ballooning incidents, by reporting directly to the ABF safety officer or by completing an online incident report form. The objective of this paper is to understand how widely used the reporting system is and whether there are any perceived barriers to reporting. Sixty-nine balloonists participated in an online survey about their experience of incident reporting. Survey respondents were mostly male (11 female), experienced balloonists (mean years’ experience ballooning 19.51y with a SD 11.19). Sixty respondents (87%) held a pilot license. The majority (82.6%) of respondents were aware of the ABF incident reporting system. Over half (62.3%) had been involved in a ballooning incident or near-miss in Australia. However, 40% of those who had an incident or near-miss did not report it to the ABF and only 15.9% of all those surveyed had used the online incident report form. There was some disagreement regarding when it was appropriate to report an incident or near miss. Some respondents felt an incident or near miss should only be reported if it resulted in injury or damage, while others said near-misses should also be reported. The most frequent barriers identified were: a lack of understanding of when to report to the ABF; trivializing of incidents; and concerns about the system itself Steps should be taken to increase understanding of the system purpose and long term benefits. Specifically, reporting near-misses should be encouraged. This study is significant because it is the first to examine reporting practices in non-motorised recreational aviation.

Innovation in Road Building: Removing Obstacles for Diffusion of Novel Building Products

How can obstacles to innovation be overcome in road construction? Using a focus group methodology, and based on two prior rounds of empirical work, the analysis in this chapter generates a set of four key solutions to two main construction innovation obstacles: (1) restrictive tender assessment and (2) disagreement over who carries the risk of new product failure. The four key solutions uncovered were: 1) pre-project product certification; 2) past innovation performance assessment; 3) earlier involvement of product suppliers and road asset operators; and 4) performance-based specifications. Additional research is suggested in order to illicit deeper insights into possible solutions to construction innovation obstacles, and should emphasise furthering the theoretical interpretation of empirical phenomena.

Shock propagation in gas dynamics: explicit form of higher order compatibility conditions

With the use of tensor analysis and the method of singular surfaces, an infinite system of equations can be derived to study the propagation of curved shocks of arbitrary strength in gas dynamics. The first three of these have been explicitly given here. This system is further reduced to one involving scalars only. The choice of dependent variables in the infinite system is quite important, it leads to coefficients free from singularities for all values of the shock strength.

Growing length and time scales in glass-forming liquids

The glass transition, whereby liquids transform into amorphous solids at low temperatures, is a subject of intense research despite decades of investigation. Explaining the enormous increase in relaxation times of a liquid upon supercooling is essential for understanding the glass transition. Although many theories, such as the Adam-Gibbs theory, have sought to relate growing relaxation times to length scales associated with spatial correlations in liquid structure or motion of molecules, the role of length scales in glassy dynamics is not well established. Recent studies of spatially correlated rearrangements of molecules leading to structural relaxation, termed ``spatially heterogeneous dynamics,'' provide fresh impetus in this direction. A powerful approach to extract length scales in critical phenomena is finite-size scaling, wherein a system is studied for sizes traversing the length scales of interest. We perform finite-size scaling for a realistic glass-former, using computer simulations, to evaluate the length scale associated with spatially heterogeneous dynamics, which grows as temperature decreases. However, relaxation times that also grow with decreasing temperature do not exhibit standard finite-size scaling with this length. We show that relaxation times are instead determined, for all studied system sizes and temperatures, by configurational entropy, in accordance with the Adam-Gibbs relation, but in disagreement with theoretical expectations based on spin-glass models that configurational entropy is not relevant at temperatures substantially above the critical temperature of mode-coupling theory. Our results provide new insights into the dynamics of glass-forming liquids and pose serious challenges to existing theoretical descriptions.

Electrical Characterization of Airborne Vehicle Exhaust Plume

he induced current and voltage on the skin of an airborne vehicle due to the coupling of external electromagnetic field could be altered in the presence of ionized exhaust plume. So in the present work, a theoretical analysis is done to estimate the electrical parameters such as electrical conductivity and permittivity and their distribution in the axial and radial directions of the exhaust plume of an airborne vehicle. The electrical conductivity depends on the distribution of the major ionic species produced from the propellant combustion. In addition it also depends on temperature and pressure distribution of the exhaust plume as well as the generated shock wave. The chemically reactive rocket exhaust flow is modeled in two stages. The first part is simulated from the combustion chamber to the throat of the supersonic nozzle by using NASA Chemical Equilibrium with Application (CEA) package and the second part is simulated from the nozzle throat to the downstream of the plume by using a commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver. The contour plots of the exhaust parameters are presented. Eight barrel shocks which influence the distribution of the vehicle exhaust parameters are obtained in this simulation. The computed peak value of the electrical conductivity of the plume is 0.123 S/m and the relative permittivity varies from 0.89 to 0.99. The attenuation of the microwave when it is passing through the conducting exhaust plume has also been presented.

Quantifying progressive anterior overgrowth in the thoracic vertebrae of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients

Study design Anterior and posterior vertebral body heights were measured from sequential MRI scans of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) patients and healthy controls. Objective To measure changes in vertebral body height over time during scoliosis progression to assess how vertebral body height discrepancies change during growth. Summary of background data Relative anterior overgrowth has been proposed as a potential driver for AIS initiation and progression. This theory proposes that the anterior column grows faster, and the posterior column slower, in AIS patients when compared to healthy controls. There is disagreement in the literature as to whether the anterior vertebral body heights are proportionally greater than posterior vertebral body heights in AIS patients when compared to healthy controls. To some extent, these discrepancies may be attributed to methodological differences. Methods MRI scans of the major curve of 21 AIS patients (mean age 12.5 ± 1.4 years, mean Cobb 32.2 ± 12.8º) and between T4 and T12 of 21 healthy adolescents (mean age 12.1 ± 0.5 years) were captured for this study. Of the 21 AIS patients, 14 had a second scan on average 10.8 ± 4.7 months after the first. Anterior and posterior vertebral body heights were measured from the true sagittal plane of each vertebra such that anterior overgrowth could be quantified. Results The difference between anterior and posterior vertebral body height in healthy, non-scoliotic children was significantly greater than in AIS patients with mild to moderate scoliosis. However there was no significant relationship between the overall anterior-posterior vertebral body height difference in AIS and either severity of the curve or its progression over time. Conclusions Whilst AIS patients have a proportionally longer anterior column than non-scoliotic controls, the degree of anterior overgrowth was not related to the rate of progression or the severity of the scoliotic curve.