Repeated random sampling in year 5

As an extension to an activity introducing Year 5 students to the practice of statistics, the software TinkerPlots made it possible to collect repeated random samples from a finite population to informally explore students’ capacity to begin reasoning with a distribution of sample statistics. This article provides background for the sampling process and reports on the success of students in making predictions for the population from the collection of simulated samples and in explaining their strategies. The activity provided an application of the numeracy skill of using percentages, the numerical summary of the data, rather than graphing data in the analysis of samples to make decisions on a statistical question. About 70% of students made what were considered at least moderately good predictions of the population percentages for five yes–no questions, and the correlation between predictions and explanations was 0.78.

Optimal multicommodity flow through the complete graph with random edge capacities

We consider a multicommodity flow problem on a complete graph whose edges have random, independent, and identically distributed capacities. We show that, as the number of nodes tends to infinity, the maximumutility, given by the average of a concave function of each commodity How, has an almost-sure limit. Furthermore, the asymptotically optimal flow uses only direct and two-hop paths, and can be obtained in a distributed manner.

Stability of scheduled multi-access communication over quasi-static flat fading channels with random coding and independent decoding

The stability of scheduled multiaccess communication with random coding and independent decoding of messages is investigated. The number of messages that may be scheduled for simultaneous transmission is limited to a given maximum value, and the channels from transmitters to receiver are quasistatic, flat, and have independent fades. Requests for message transmissions are assumed to arrive according to an i.i.d. arrival process. Then, we show the following: (1) in the limit of large message alphabet size, the stability region has an interference limited information-theoretic capacity interpretation, (2) state-independent scheduling policies achieve this asymptotic stability region, and (3) in the asymptotic limit corresponding to immediate access, the stability region for non-idling scheduling policies is shown to be identical irrespective of received signal powers.

Detection of a periodic structure hidden in random background: the role of signal amplitude in the matched filter detection method

The matched filter method for detecting a periodic structure on a surface hidden behind randomness is known to detect up to (r(0)/Lambda) gt;= 0.11, where r(0) is the coherence length of light on scattering from the rough part and 3 is the wavelength of the periodic part of the surface-the above limit being much lower than what is allowed by conventional detection methods. The primary goal of this technique is the detection and characterization of the periodic structure hidden behind randomness without the use of any complicated experimental or computational procedures. This paper examines this detection procedure for various values of the amplitude a of the periodic part beginning from a = 0 to small finite values of a. We thus address the importance of the following quantities: `(a)lambda) `, which scales the amplitude of the periodic part with the wavelength of light, and (r(0))Lambda),in determining the detectability of the intensity peaks.

An instantaneous pulse frequency meter for random pulses

Counting-rate meters normally used for finding pulse frequencies are sluggish in their response to any rapid change in the pulse repetition frequency (P.R.F.). An instrument is described which measures each pulse interval and provides immediately afterwards an output voltage proportional to the reciprocal of interval duration. A response to a change in the P.R.F. as rapidly as is physically possible is obtained. The instrument has wide application in low level radiation detection and in several other fields especially for rapidly varying counting-rates.

First passage probability during random vibration

The probability that a random process crosses an arbitrary level for the first time is expressed as a Gram—Charlier series, the leading term of which is the Poisson approximation. The coefficients of this series are related to the moments of the number of level crossings. The results are applicable to both stationary and non-stationary processes. Some numerical results are presented for the response process of a linear single-degree-of-freedom oscillator under Gaussian white noise excitation.

Nonlinear vibration analysis of composite laminated and sandwich plates with random material properties

Nonlinear vibration analysis is performed using a C-0 assumed strain interpolated finite element plate model based on Reddy's third order theory. An earlier model is modified to include the effect of transverse shear variation along the plate thickness and Von-Karman nonlinear strain terms. Monte Carlo Simulation with Latin Hypercube Sampling technique is used to obtain the variance of linear and nonlinear natural frequencies of the plate due to randomness in its material properties. Numerical results are obtained for composite plates with different aspect ratio, stacking sequence and oscillation amplitude ratio. The numerical results are validated with the available literature. It is found that the nonlinear frequencies show increasing non-Gaussian probability density function with increasing amplitude of vibration and show dual peaks at high amplitude ratios. This chaotic nature of the dispersion of nonlinear eigenvalues is also r

Double diffusive unsteady free convection on two-dimensional and axisymmetric bodies in a porous medium

The unsteady laminar free convection flow of an incompressible electrically conducting fluid over two-dimensional and axisymmetric bodies embedded in a highly porous medium with an applied magnetic field has been studied. The unsteadiness in the flow field is caused by the variation of the wall temperature and concentration with time. The coupled nonlinear partial differential equations with three independent variables have been solved numerically using an implicit finite-difference scheme in combination with the quasilinearization technique. It is observed that the skin friction, heat transfer and mass transfer increase with the permeability parameter but decrease with the magnetic parameter. The results are strongly dependent on the variation of wall temperature and concentration with time. The skin friction and heat transfer increase or decrease as the buoyancy forces from species diffusion assist or oppose the thermal buoyancy force. However, the mass transfer is found to be higher for small values of the ratio of the buoyancy parameters than for large values

Phase diagram of a hard-sphere system in a quenched random potential: A numerical study

We report numerical results for the phase diagram in the density-disorder plane of a hard-sphere system in the presence of quenched, random, pinning disorder. Local minima of a discretized version of the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff free energy functional are located numerically and their relative stability is studied as a function of the density and the strength of disorder. Regions in the phase diagram corresponding to liquid, glassy, and nearly crystalline states are mapped out, and the nature of the transitions is determined. The liquid to glass transition changes from first to second order as the strength of the disorder is increased. For weak disorder, the system undergoes a first-order crystallization transition as the density is increased. Beyond a critical value of the disorder strength, this transition is replaced by a continuous glass transition. Our numerical results are compared with those of analytical work on the same system. Implications of our results for the field-temperature phase diagram of type-II superconductors are discussed.

A soluble random-matrix model for relaxation in quantum systems

We study the relaxation of a degenerate two-level system interacting with a heat bath, assuming a random-matrix model for the system-bath interaction. For times larger than the duration of a collision and smaller than the Poincaré recurrence time, the survival probability of still finding the system at timet in the same state in which it was prepared att=0 is exactly calculated.

Random matrices: Universality of ESDs and the circular law

Given an n x n complex matrix A, let mu(A)(x, y) := 1/n vertical bar{1 <= i <= n, Re lambda(i) <= x, Im lambda(i) <= y}vertical bar be the empirical spectral distribution (ESD) of its eigenvalues lambda(i) is an element of C, i = l, ... , n. We consider the limiting distribution (both in probability and in the almost sure convergence sense) of the normalized ESD mu(1/root n An) of a random matrix A(n) = (a(ij))(1 <= i, j <= n), where the random variables a(ij) - E(a(ij)) are i.i.d. copies of a fixed random variable x with unit variance. We prove a universality principle for such ensembles, namely, that the limit distribution in question is independent of the actual choice of x. In particular, in order to compute this distribution, one can assume that x is real or complex Gaussian. As a related result, we show how laws for this ESD follow from laws for the singular value distribution of 1/root n A(n) - zI for complex z. As a corollary, we establish the circular law conjecture (both almost surely and in probability), which asserts that mu(1/root n An) converges to the uniform measure on the unit disc when the a(ij) have zero mean.

Markov random fields and spatial smoothing in improving of forest inventory estimates

Markov random fields (MRF) are popular in image processing applications to describe spatial dependencies between image units. Here, we take a look at the theory and the models of MRFs with an application to improve forest inventory estimates. Typically, autocorrelation between study units is a nuisance in statistical inference, but we take an advantage of the dependencies to smooth noisy measurements by borrowing information from the neighbouring units. We build a stochastic spatial model, which we estimate with a Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method. The smooth values are validated against another data set increasing our confidence that the estimates are more accurate than the originals.

Mooij correlation in disordered metals

We point out that the Mooij correlation follows naturally from a dynamically disordered tight-binding Hamiltonian with random modulations of both the diagonal and the off-diagonal matrix elements which are known to act in opposition. The dynamic disorder is treated exactly while the static disorder is incorporated approximately as an effective additional time-dependent disorder affecting the diffusive electron. Such a time translation of static disorder is known to manifest itself in certain limits as a renormalization of the diffusion coefficient. The calculated conductivity exhibits the Mooij correlation at high temperatures, where quantum coherence associated with the static disorder can be ignored.