Self-play: statistical significance

Heinz recently completed a comprehensive experiment in self-play using the FRITZ chess engine to establish the ‘decreasing returns’ hypothesis with specific levels of statistical confidence. This note revisits the results and recalculates the confidence levels of this and other hypotheses. These appear to be better than Heinz’ initial analysis suggests.

The significance of volcanic eruption strength and frequency for climate

A simple physical model of the atmospheric effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions is developed. Using only one input parameter - the initial amount of sulphur dioxide injected into the stratosphere - the global-average stratospheric optical-depth perturbation and surface temperature response are modelled. The simplicity of this model avoids issues of incomplete data (applicable to more comprehensive models), making it a powerful and useful tool for atmospheric diagnostics of this climate forcing mechanism. It may also provide a computationally inexpensive and accurate way of introducing volcanic activity into larger climate models. The modelled surface temperature response for an initial sulphur-dioxide injection, coupled with emission-history statistics, is used to demonstrate that the most climatically significant volcanic eruptions are those of sufficient explosivity to just reach into the stratosphere (and achieve longevity). This study also highlights the fact that this measure of significance is highly sensitive to the representation of the climatic response and the frequency data used, and that we are far from producing a definitive history of explosive volcanism for at least the past 1000 years. Given this high degree of uncertainty, these results suggest that eruptions that release around and above 0.1 Mt SO2 into the stratosphere have the maximum climatic impact.

Self-play: statistical significance

Heinz recently completed a comprehensive experiment in self-play using the FRITZ chess engine to establish the ‘decreasing returns’ hypothesis with specific levels of statistical confidence. This note revisits the results and recalculates the confidence levels of this and other hypotheses. These appear to be better than Heinz’ initial analysis suggests.

The nutritional and clinical significance of lipid rafts

Purpose of review Lipid rafts are potentially modifiable by diet, particularly (but not exclusively) by dietary fatty acids. This review examines the potential for dietary modification of raft structure and function in the immune system, brain and retinal tissue, the gut, and in cancer cells. Recent findings In-vitro and ex-vivo studies suggest that dietary n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) may exert immunosuppressive and anticancer effects through changes in lipid raft organization. In addition, gangliosides and cholesterol may modulate lipid raft organization in a number of tissues, and recent work has highlighted sphingolipids in membrane microdomains as potential targets for inhibition of tumor growth. The roles of fatty acids and gangliosides, especially in relation to lipid rafts, in cognitive development, age-related cognitive decline, psychiatric disorders, and Alzheimer’s disease are poorly understood and require further investigation. The roles of lipid rafts in cancer, in microbial pathogenesis, and in insulin resistance are starting to emerge, and indicate compelling evidence for the growing importance of membrane microdomains in health and disease. Summary In-vitro and animal studies show that n-3 PUFAs, cholesterol, and gangliosides modulate the structure and composition of lipid rafts, potentially influencing a wide range of biological processes, including immune function, neuronal signaling, cancer cell growth, entry of pathogens through the gut barrier, and insulin resistance in metabolic disorders. The physiological, clinical, and nutritional relevance of these observations remains to be determined.

Functional significance of the signal transduction pathways Akt and Erk in ovarian follicles: in vitro and in vivo studies in cattle and sheep

BACKGROUND: The intracellular signalling mechanisms that regulate ovarian follicle development are unclear; however, we have recently shown differences in the Akt and Erk signalling pathways in dominant compared to subordinate follicles. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of inhibiting Akt and Erk phosphorylation on IGF- and gonadotropin- stimulated granulosa and theca cell function in vitro, and on follicle development in vivo. METHODS: Bovine granulosa and theca cells were cultured for six days and stimulated with FSH and/or IGF, or LH in combination with PD98059 (Erk inhibitor) and/or LY294002 (Akt inhibitor) and their effect on cell number and hormone secretion (estradiol, activin-A, inhibin-A, follistatin, progesterone and androstenedione) determined. In addition, ovarian follicles were treated in vivo with PD98059 and/or LY294002 in ewes on Day 3 of the cycle and follicles were recovered 48 hours later. RESULTS: We have shown that gonadotropin- and IGF-stimulated hormone production by granulosa and theca cells is reduced by treatment with PD98059 and LY294002 in vitro. Furthermore, treatment with PD98059 and LY294002 reduced follicle growth and oestradiol production in vivo. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate an important functional role for the Akt and Erk signalling pathways in follicle function, growth and development.

Origin and evolution of 3'UTR of flaviviruses: long direct repeats as a basis for the formation of secondary structures and their significance for virus transmission

The 3' untranslated regions (3'UTRs) of flaviviruses are reviewed and analyzed in relation to short sequences conserved as direct repeats (DRs). Previously, alignments of the 3'UTRs have been constructed for three of the four recognized flavivirus groups, namely mosquito-borne, tick-borne, and nonclassified flaviviruses (MBFV, TBFV, and NCFV, respectively). This revealed (1) six long repeat sequences (LRSs) in the 3'UTR and open-reading frame (ORF) of the TBFV, (2) duplication of the 3'UTR of the NCFV by intramolecular recombination, and (3) the possibility of a common origin for all DRs within the MBFV. We have now extended this analysis and review it in the context of all previous published analyses. This has been achieved by constructing a robust alignment between all flaviviruses using the published DRs and secondary RNA structures as "anchors" to reveal additional homologies along the 3'UTR. This approach identified nucleotide regions within the MBFV, NKV (no-known vector viruses), and NCFV 3'UTRs that are homologous to different LRSs in the TBFV 3'UTR and ORF. The analysis revealed that some of the DRs and secondary RNA structures described individually within each flavivirus group share common evolutionary origins. The 3'UTR of flaviviruses, and possibly the ORF, therefore probably evolved through multiple duplication of an RNA domain, homologous to the LRS previously identified only in the TBFV. The short DRs in all virus groups appear to represent the evolutionary remnants of these domains rather than resulting from new duplications. The relevance of these flavivirus DRs to evolution, diversity, 3'UTR enhancer function, and virus transmission is reviewed.

The significance of "nonsignificance" in randomized controlled studies: a discussion inspired by a double-blinded study on St. John's Wort (Hypericum perforatum L.) for premenstrual symptoms

Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the efficacy of St. John's wort extract (SJW) as a treatment for premenstrual symptoms. Design: The study was a randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial, with two parallel treatment groups. After a no-treatment baseline cycle, volunteers were randomized to either SJW or placebo for a further two menstrual cycles. Settings/location: A postal trial conducted from The University of Reading, Berkshire, England. Subjects: One hundred and sixty-nine (169) normally menstruating women who experienced recurrent premenstrual symptoms were recruited onto the study. One hundred and twenty-five (125) completed the protocol and were included in the analysis. Interventions: Six hundred milligrams (600) mg of SJW (standardized to contain 1800 mug of hypericin) or placebo (containing lactose and cellulose). Outcome measure: A menstrual diary was used to assess changes in premenstrual symptoms. The anxiety-related subgroup of symptoms of this instrument was used as the primary outcome measure. Results: After averaging the effects of treatment over both treatment cycles it was found that there was a trend for SJW to be superior to placebo. However, this finding was not statistically significant. Conclusion: The possibility that this nonsignificant finding resulted from insufficient statistical power in the study, rather than a lack of efficacy of SJW, is discussed. Following this discussion the recommendation is made that, in future, similar studies should be powered to detect a minimum clinically relevant difference between treatments.

The Nutritional Significance of Lipid Rafts

The structure, size, stability, and functionality of lipid rafts are still in debate, but recent techniques allowing direct visualization have characterized them in a wide range of cell types. Lipid rafts are potentially modifiable by diet, particularly (but not exclusively) by dietary fatty acids. However, it is not clear whether dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) are incorporated into raft lipids or whether their low affinity to cholesterol disallows this and causes phase separation from rafts and displacement of raft proteins. This review examines the potential for dietary modification of raft structure and function in the immune system, brain and retinal tissue, the gut, and in cancer cells. Although there is increasing evidence to suggest that membrane microdomains, and their modulation, have an impact in health and disease, it is too early to judge whether modulation of lipid rafts is responsible for the immunomodulatory effects of n-3 PUFA. In addition to dietary fatty acids, gangliosides and cholesterol may also modulate microdomains in a number of tissues, and recent work has highlighted sphingolipids in membrane microdomains as potential targets for inhibition of tumor growth by n-3 PUFA. The roles of fatty acids and gangliosides in cognitive development, age-related cognitive decline, psychiatric disorders, and Alzheimer's disease are poorly understood and require clarification, particularly with respect to the contribution of lipid rafts. The roles of lipid rafts in cancer, in microbial pathogenesis, and in insulin resistance are only just emerging, but compelling evidence indicates the growing importance of membrane microdomains in health and disease.