Kalenterianomaliat pohjoismaisilla sähkömarkkinoilla

Osakemarkkinoilta on jo useiden vuosien ajan julkaistu lukuisia tutkimuksia, joissa on esitetty havaintoja ajallisesta säännönmukaisuudesta osakkeiden hinnoissa, joita ei pystytä selittämään markkinakohtaisilla fundamenteilla. Nämä niin kutsutut kalenterianomaliat esiintyvät tyypillisesti ajallisissa käännepisteissä, kuten vuoden, kuukauden tai viikon vaihtuessa seuraavaksi. Myös erilaisten katkosten, kuten juhlapyhien, kaupankäyntirutiineissa on havaittu aiheuttavan anomalioita. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia osakemarkkinoilla havaittujen kalenterianomalioiden esiintymistä pohjoismaisilla sähkömarkkinoilla. Tutkitut anomaliat olivat viikonpäivä- kuukausi-, kuunvaihde- ja juhlapyhäanomalia. Näiden lisäksi tutkittiin tuottojen käyttäytymistä optioiden erääntymispäivien läheisyydessä. Yksittäisten tuotteiden sijasta tarkastelut suoritettiin sesonki- ja kvartaalituotteista muodostetuilla vuosituotteilla. Testauksessa käytettiin pienimmän neliösumman menetelmää, huomioidenheteroskedastisuuden, autokorrelaation ja multikollineaarisuuden vaikutukset. Pelkkien kalenterimuuttujien lisäksi testit suoritettiin regressiomalleilla, joissa lisäselittäjinä käytettiin spot-hintaa, päästöoikeuden hintaa ja/tai sade-ennusteita. Tarkastelujakso koostui vuosista 1998-2006.

One more lie: the Monday effect in Spain’s retail petrol market

Empirical evidence drawn from the economic literature points to a low level of competition in the retail petrol market. Similar evidence can be found for the Spanish market. In fact, both Spain’s antitrust authority -Comisión Nacional de la Competencia- and its energy regulator -Comisión Nacional de la Energía- have recently initiated disciplinary proceedings against the majors on the grounds of suspected price manipulation in the retail petrol market. They are accused of cutting retail prices on Mondays so as to distort the rank position of Spain in European Union statistics in a practice that has received the name of the Monday effect. Here, we analyze this effect by constructing a database that includes daily retail prices for all petrol stations in Spain in the period 2009-2012, and a more detailed database for the city of Barcelona in 2013. Our estimations confirm that: 1- in 2011 and 2012 prices fell on Mondays at retailers branded by majors; 2- prices were unchanged at stations in our two control groups; 3- prices were also seen to fall when a more detailed analysis was conducted, and this price cut was also found in 2013. In short, one more indicator of collusion in this sector and … one more lie.

The Role of the Delay Time in the Modeling of Biological Range Expansions

The time interval between successive migrations of biological species causes a delay time in the reaction-diffusion equations describing their space-time dynamics. This lowers the predicted speed of the waves of advance, as compared to classical models. It has been shown that this delay-time effect improves the modeling of human range expansions. Here, we demonstrate that it can also be important for other species. We present two new examples where the predictions of the time-delayed and the classical (Fisher) approaches are compared to experimental data. No free or adjustable parameters are used. We show that the importance of the delay effect depends on the dimensionless product of the initial growth rate and the delay time. We argue that the delay effect should be taken into account in the modeling of range expansions for biological species

Relation of the disaccharidases in the small intestine of the rat to the degree of experimentally induced iron-deficiency anemia

Hypolactasia associated with severe iron-deficiency anemia has been reported in several studies. The objective of the present study was to determine whether hypolactasia is associated with the degree and duration of iron-deficiency anemia. Newly weaned male Wistar rats were divided into a control group receiving a diet supplemented with iron (C) and an experimental group (E) receiving a diet not supplemented with iron (iron-deficiency diet). The animals were studied on the 3rd, 5th, 7th, 14th, 21st, 28th and 35th days of the experiment, when overall and iron nutritional status and disaccharidase activity in the small intestine were determined by the Dahlqvist method. A reduction in weight occurred in the anemic animals starting on the 5th day of the study. Anemia was present in the experimental animals, with a progressive worsening up to the 14th day (hemoglobin: C = 13.27 and E = 5.37) and stabilizing thereafter. Saccharase and maltase activities did not differ significantly between groups, whereas lactase showed a significant reduction in total (TA) and specific activity (SA) in the anemic animals starting on the 21st day of the study. Median lactase TA for the C and E groups was 2.27 and 1.25 U on the 21st day, 2.87 and 1.88 U on the 28th day, and 4.20 and 1.59 U on the 35th day, respectively. Median lactase SA was 0.31 and 0.20 U/g wet weight on the 21st day, 0.39 and 0.24 U/g wet weight on the 28th day, and 0.42 and 0.23 U/g wet weight on the 35th day, respectively. These findings suggest a relationship between the enzymatic alterations observed and both the degree and duration of the anemic process. Analysis of other studies on intestinal disaccharidases in anemia suggests that the mechanism of these changes may be functional, i.e., that the enterocytes may suffer a reduction in their ability to synthesize these enzymes.

The role of complement in the modulation by fluid-phase IgG of the production of reactive oxygen species by polymorphonuclear leukocytes stimulated with IgG immune complexes

The production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) by polymorphonuclear leukocytes (PMN) can be induced by immune complexes and is an important component of phagocytosis in the killing of microorganisms, but can also be involved in inflammatory reactions when immune complexes are deposited in tissues. We have observed that fluid-phase IgG can inhibit the generation of ROS by rabbit PMN stimulated with precipitated immune complexes of IgG (ICIgG) in a dose-dependent manner, acting as a modulatory factor in the range of physiological IgG concentrations. This inhibitory effect is compatible with the known affinity (Kd) of monomeric IgG for the receptors involved (FcRII and FcRIII). The presence of complement components in the immune complexes results in a higher stimulation of ROS production. In this case, however, there is no inhibition by fluid-phase IgG. The effect of complement is strongly dependent on the presence of divalent cations (Ca2+ or Mg2+) in the medium, whereas the stimulation of ICIgG (without complement) does not depend on these cations. We have obtained some evidence indicating that iC3b should be the component involved in the effect of complement through interaction with the CR3 receptor. The absence of the inhibitory effect of fluid-phase IgG in ROS production when complement is present in the immune complex shows that complement may be important in vivo not only in the production of chemotactic factors for PMN, but also in the next phase of the process, i.e., the generation of ROS.

Electrophysiological constituents of the P100 and N170 ERP complex: De-constructing of face processing using independent component analysis and robust estimation.

The initial timing of face-specific effects in event-related potentials (ERPs) is a point of contention in face processing research. Although effects during the time of the N170 are robust in the literature, inconsistent effects during the time of the P100 challenge the interpretation of the N170 as being the initial face-specific ERP effect. The interpretation of the early P100 effects are often attributed to low-level differences between face stimuli and a host of other image categories. Research using sophisticated controls for low-level stimulus characteristics (Rousselet, Husk, Bennett, & Sekuler, 2008) report robust face effects starting at around 130 ms following stimulus onset. The present study examines the independent components (ICs) of the P100 and N170 complex in the context of a minimally controlled low-level stimulus set and a clear P100 effect for faces versus houses at the scalp. Results indicate that four ICs account for the ERPs to faces and houses in the first 200ms following stimulus onset. The IC that accounts for the majority of the scalp N170 (icNla) begins dissociating stimulus conditions at approximately 130 ms, closely replicating the scalp results of Rousselet et al. (2008). The scalp effects at the time of the P100 are accounted for by two constituent ICs (icP1a and icP1b). The IC that projects the greatest voltage at the scalp during the P100 (icP1a) shows a face-minus-house effect over the period of the P100 that is less robust than the N 170 effect of icN 1 a when measured as the average of single subject differential activation robustness. The second constituent process of the P100 (icP1b), although projecting a smaller voltage to the scalp than icP1a, shows a more robust effect for the face-minus-house contrast starting prior to 100 ms following stimulus onset. Further, the effect expressed by icP1 b takes the form of a larger negative projection to medial occipital sites for houses over faces partially canceling the larger projection of icP1a, thereby enhancing the face positivity at this time. These findings have three main implications for ERP research on face processing: First, the ICs that constitute the face-minus-house P100 effect are independent from the ICs that constitute the N170 effect. This suggests that the P100 effect and the N170 effect are anatomically independent. Second, the timing of the N170 effect can be recovered from scalp ERPs that have spatio-temporally overlapping effects possibly associated with low-level stimulus characteristics. This unmixing of the EEG signals may reduce the need for highly constrained stimulus sets, a characteristic that is not always desirable for a topic that is highly coupled to ecological validity. Third, by unmixing the constituent processes of the EEG signals new analysis strategies are made available. In particular the exploration of the relationship between cortical processes over the period of the P100 and N170 ERP complex (and beyond) may provide previously unaccessible answers to questions such as: Is the face effect a special relationship between low-level and high-level processes along the visual stream?

An estimate of the global impact of multiple scattering by clouds on outgoing long-wave radiation

Although the potential importance of scattering of long-wave radiation by clouds has been recognised, most studies have concentrated on the impact of high clouds and few estimates of the global impact of scattering have been presented. This study shows that scattering in low clouds has a significant impact on outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) in regions of marine stratocumulus (-3.5 W m(-2) for overcast conditions) where the column water vapour is relatively low. This corresponds to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect of such clouds by 10%. The near-global impact of scattering on OLR is estimated to be -3.0 W m(-2), with low clouds contributing -0.9 W m(-2), mid-level cloud -0.7 W m(-2) and high clouds -1.4 W m(-2). Although this effect appears small compared to the global mean OLR of 240 W m(-2), it indicates that neglect of scattering will lead to an error in cloud long-wave forcing of about 10% and an error in net cloud forcing of about 20%.

Factors influencing anthropogenic carbon dioxide uptake in the North Atlantic in models of the ocean carbon cycle

The uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon in the North Atlantic is investigated using different configurations of ocean general circulation/carbon cycle models. We investigate how different representations of the ocean physics in the models, which represent the range of models currently in use, affect the evolution of CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic. The buffer effect of the ocean carbon system would be expected to reduce ocean CO2 uptake as the ocean absorbs increasing amounts of CO2. We find that the strength of the buffer effect is very dependent on the model ocean state, as it affects both the magnitude and timing of the changes in uptake. The timescale over which uptake of CO2 in the North Atlantic drops to below preindustrial levels is particularly sensitive to the ocean state which sets the degree of buffering; it is less sensitive to the choice of atmospheric CO2 forcing scenario. Neglecting physical climate change effects, North Atlantic CO2 uptake drops below preindustrial levels between 50 and 300 years after stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 in different model configurations. Storage of anthropogenic carbon in the North Atlantic varies much less among the different model configurations, as differences in ocean transport of dissolved inorganic carbon and uptake of CO2 compensate each other. This supports the idea that measured inventories of anthropogenic carbon in the real ocean cannot be used to constrain the surface uptake. Including physical climate change effects reduces anthropogenic CO2 uptake and storage in the North Atlantic further, due to the combined effects of surface warming, increased freshwater input, and a slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation. The timescale over which North Atlantic CO2 uptake drops to below preindustrial levels is reduced by about one-third, leading to an estimate of this timescale for the real world of about 50 years after the stabilisation of atmospheric CO2. In the climate change experiment, a shallowing of the mixed layer depths in the North Atlantic results in a significant reduction in primary production, reducing the potential role for biology in drawing down anthropogenic CO2.

A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

Analysis of void volumes in proteins and application to stability of the p53 tumour suppressor protein

We have developed a new method for the analysis of voids in proteins (defined as empty cavities not accessible to solvent). This method combines analysis of individual discrete voids with analysis of packing quality. While these are different aspects of the same effect, they have traditionally been analysed using different approaches. The method has been applied to the calculation of total void volume and maximum void size in a non-redundant set of protein domains and has been used to examine correlations between thermal stability and void size. The tumour-suppressor protein p53 has then been compared with the non-redundant data set to determine whether its low thermal stability results from poor packing. We found that p53 has average packing, but the detrimental effects of some previously unexplained mutations to p53 observed in cancer can be explained by the creation of unusually large voids. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response of the middle atmosphere to CO2 doubling: results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) has been used to examine the middle atmosphere response to CO2 doubling. The radiative-photochemical response induced by doubling CO2 alone and the response produced by changes in prescribed SSTs are found to be approximately additive, with the former effect dominating throughout the middle atmosphere. The paper discusses the overall response, with emphasis on the effects of SST changes, which allow a tropospheric response to the CO2 forcing. The overall response is a cooling of the middle atmosphere accompanied by significant increases in the ozone and water vapor abundances. The ozone radiative feedback occurs through both an increase in solar heating and a decrease in infrared cooling, with the latter accounting for up to 15% of the total effect. Changes in global mean water vapor cooling are negligible above ~30 hPa. Near the polar summer mesopause, the temperature response is weak and not statistically significant. The main effects of SST changes are a warmer troposphere, a warmer and higher tropopause, cell-like structures of heating and cooling at low and middlelatitudes in the middle atmosphere, warming in the summer mesosphere, water vapor increase throughout the domain, and O3 decrease in the lower tropical stratosphere. No noticeable change in upwardpropagating planetary wave activity in the extratropical winter–spring stratosphere and no significant temperature response in the polar winter–spring stratosphere have been detected. Increased upwelling in the tropical stratosphere has been found to be linked to changed wave driving at low latitudes.

Revisiting the ‘Venturi effect’ in passage ventilation between two non-parallel buildings

A recent study conducted by Blocken et al. (Numerical study on the existence of the Venturi effect in passages between perpendicular buildings. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 2008,134: 1021-1028) challenged the popular view of the existence of the ‘Venturi effect’ in building passages as the wind is exposed to an open boundary. The present research extends the work of Blocken et al. (2008a) into a more general setup with the building orientation varying from 0° to 180° using CFD simulations. Our results reveal that the passage flow is mainly determined by the combination of corner streams. It is also shown that converging passages have a higher wind-blocking effect compared to diverging passages, explained by a lower wind speed and higher drag coefficient. Fluxes on the top plane of the passage volume reverse from outflow to inflow in the cases of α=135°, 150° and 165°. A simple mathematical expression to explain the relationship between the flux ratio and the geometric parameters has been developed to aid wind design in an urban neighborhood. In addition, a converging passage with α=15° is recommended for urban wind design in cold and temperate climates since the passage flow changes smoothly and a relatively lower wind speed is expected compared with that where there are no buildings. While for the high-density urban area in (sub)tropical climates such as Hong Kong where there is a desire for more wind, a diverging passage with α=150° is a better choice to promote ventilation at the pedestrian level.

Numerical solution of the eXtended Pom-Pom model for viscoelastic free surface flows

In this paper we present a finite difference method for solving two-dimensional viscoelastic unsteady free surface flows governed by the single equation version of the eXtended Pom-Pom (XPP) model. The momentum equations are solved by a projection method which uncouples the velocity and pressure fields. We are interested in low Reynolds number flows and, to enhance the stability of the numerical method, an implicit technique for computing the pressure condition on the free surface is employed. This strategy is invoked to solve the governing equations within a Marker-and-Cell type approach while simultaneously calculating the correct normal stress condition on the free surface. The numerical code is validated by performing mesh refinement on a two-dimensional channel flow. Numerical results include an investigation of the influence of the parameters of the XPP equation on the extrudate swelling ratio and the simulation of the Barus effect for XPP fluids. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An automatic correction method for the heel effect in digitized mammography images

The most significant radiation field nonuniformity is the well-known Heel effect. This nonuniform beam effect has a negative influence on the results of computer-aided diagnosis of mammograms, which is frequently used for early cancer detection. This paper presents a method to correct all pixels in the mammography image according to the excess or lack on radiation to which these have been submitted as a result of the this effect. The current simulation method calculates the intensities at all points of the image plane. In the simulated image, the percentage of radiation received by all the points takes the center of the field as reference. In the digitized mammography, the percentages of the optical density of all the pixels of the analyzed image are also calculated. The Heel effect causes a Gaussian distribution around the anode-cathode axis and a logarithmic distribution parallel to this axis. Those characteristic distributions are used to determine the center of the radiation field as well as the cathode-anode axis, allowing for the automatic determination of the correlation between these two sets of data. The measurements obtained with our proposed method differs on average by 2.49 mm in the direction perpendicular to the anode-cathode axis and 2.02 mm parallel to the anode-cathode axis of commercial equipment. The method eliminates around 94% of the Heel effect in the radiological image and the objects will reflect their x-ray absorption. To evaluate this method, experimental data was taken from known objects, but could also be done with clinical and digital images.

Bounds on functionals of the distribution treatment effects

Bounds on the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with known marginal distributions obtained by Makarov (1981) can be used to bound the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of individual treatment effects. Identification of the distribution of individual treatment effects is important for policy purposes if we are interested in functionals of that distribution, such as the proportion of individuals who gain from the treatment and the expected gain from the treatment for these individuals. Makarov bounds on the c.d.f. of the individual treatment effect distribution are pointwise sharp, i.e. they cannot be improved in any single point of the distribution. We show that the Makarov bounds are not uniformly sharp. Specifically, we show that the Makarov bounds on the region that contains the c.d.f. of the treatment effect distribution in two (or more) points can be improved, and we derive the smallest set for the c.d.f. of the treatment effect distribution in two (or more) points. An implication is that the Makarov bounds on a functional of the c.d.f. of the individual treatment effect distribution are not best possible.