Problems with binary pattern measures for flood model evaluation

As the calibration and evaluation of flood inundation models are a prerequisite for their successful application, there is a clear need to ensure that the performance measures that quantify how well models match the available observations are fit for purpose. This paper evaluates the binary pattern performance measures that are frequently used to compare flood inundation models with observations of flood extent. This evaluation considers whether these measures are able to calibrate and evaluate model predictions in a credible and consistent way, i.e. identifying the underlying model behaviour for a number of different purposes such as comparing models of floods of different magnitudes or on different catchments. Through theoretical examples, it is shown that the binary pattern measures are not consistent for floods of different sizes, such that for the same vertical error in water level, a model of a flood of large magnitude appears to perform better than a model of a smaller magnitude flood. Further, the commonly used Critical Success Index (usually referred to as F<2 >) is biased in favour of overprediction of the flood extent, and is also biased towards correctly predicting areas of the domain with smaller topographic gradients. Consequently, it is recommended that future studies consider carefully the implications of reporting conclusions using these performance measures. Additionally, future research should consider whether a more robust and consistent analysis could be achieved by using elevation comparison methods instead.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilise the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross-section geometry and channel long-profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D-2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) of the 1:2102 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of hypothetical scenarios of channel morphology were constructed based on a simple velocity based model of critical entrainment. A Monte-Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics, and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected a good approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion despite its overestimation of erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long-profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel-bed rivers like the one used in this research.

Improving the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model for flood modelling using flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

The topography of many floodplains in the developed world has now been surveyed with high resolution sensors such as airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging), giving accurate Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) that facilitate accurate flood inundation modelling. This is not always the case for remote rivers in developing countries. However, the accuracy of DEMs produced for modelling studies on such rivers should be enhanced in the near future by the high resolution TanDEM-X WorldDEM. In a parallel development, increasing use is now being made of flood extents derived from high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images for calibrating, validating and assimilating observations into flood inundation models in order to improve these. This paper discusses an additional use of SAR flood extents, namely to improve the accuracy of the TanDEM-X DEM in the floodplain covered by the flood extents, thereby permanently improving this DEM for future flood modelling and other studies. The method is based on the fact that for larger rivers the water elevation generally changes only slowly along a reach, so that the boundary of the flood extent (the waterline) can be regarded locally as a quasi-contour. As a result, heights of adjacent pixels along a small section of waterline can be regarded as samples with a common population mean. The height of the central pixel in the section can be replaced with the average of these heights, leading to a more accurate estimate. While this will result in a reduction in the height errors along a waterline, the waterline is a linear feature in a two-dimensional space. However, improvements to the DEM heights between adjacent pairs of waterlines can also be made, because DEM heights enclosed by the higher waterline of a pair must be at least no higher than the corrected heights along the higher waterline, whereas DEM heights not enclosed by the lower waterline must in general be no lower than the corrected heights along the lower waterline. In addition, DEM heights between the higher and lower waterlines can also be assigned smaller errors because of the reduced errors on the corrected waterline heights. The method was tested on a section of the TanDEM-X Intermediate DEM (IDEM) covering an 11km reach of the Warwickshire Avon, England. Flood extents from four COSMO-SKyMed images were available at various stages of a flood in November 2012, and a LiDAR DEM was available for validation. In the area covered by the flood extents, the original IDEM heights had a mean difference from the corresponding LiDAR heights of 0.5 m with a standard deviation of 2.0 m, while the corrected heights had a mean difference of 0.3 m with standard deviation 1.2 m. These figures show that significant reductions in IDEM height bias and error can be made using the method, with the corrected error being only 60% of the original. Even if only a single SAR image obtained near the peak of the flood was used, the corrected error was only 66% of the original. The method should also be capable of improving the final TanDEM-X DEM and other DEMs, and may also be of use with data from the SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) satellite.

Glucose-Induced Regulation of NHEs Activity and SGLTs Expression Involves the PKA Signaling Pathway

The effect of glucose on the intracellular pH (pH(i)) recovery rate (dpH(i)/dt) and Na(+)-glucose transporter (SGLT) localization was investigated in HEK-293 cells, a cell line that expresses endogenous NHE1, NHE3, SGLT1, and SGLT2 proteins. The activity of the Na(+)/H(+) exchangers (NHEs) was evaluated by using fluorescence microscopy. The total and membrane protein expression levels were analyzed by immunoblotting. In cells cultivated in 5 mM glucose, the pH(i) recovery rate was 0.169 +/- A 0.020 (n = 6). This value did not change in response to the acute presence of glucose at 2 or 10 mM, but decreased with 25 mM glucose, an effect that was not observed with 25 mM mannitol. Conversely, the chronic effect of high glucose (25 mM) increased the pH(i) recovery rate (similar to 40%, P < 0.05), without changes in the total levels of NHE1, NHE3, or SGLT1 expression, but increasing the total cellular (similar to 50%, P < 0.05) and the plasma membrane (similar to 100%, P < 0.01) content of SGLT2. Treatment with H-89 (10(-6) M) prevented the stimulatory effect of chronic glucose treatment on the pH(i) recovery rate and SGLT2 expression in the plasma membrane. Our results indicate that the effect of chronic treatment with a high glucose concentration is associated with increased NHEs activity and plasma membrane expression of SGLT2 in a protein kinase A-dependent way. The present results reveal mechanisms of glucotoxicity and may contribute to understanding the diabetes-induced damage of this renal epithelial cell.

Effect of flavonoids on 2 `-deoxyguanosine and DNA oxidation caused by singlet molecular oxygen

Antioxidant potential is generally investigated by assaying the ability of a compound to protect biological systems from free radicals. However, non-radical reactive oxygen species can also be harmful. Singlet molecular oxygen ((1)O(2)) is generated by energy transfer to molecular oxygen. The resulting (1)O(2) is able to oxidize the nucleoside 2`-deoxyguanosine (dGuo), which leads to the formation of 8-oxo-7,8-dihydro-2`-deoxyguanosine (8-oxodGuo) and spiroiminodihydantoin 2`-deoxyribonucleoside diastereomers (dSp) in an aqueous solution. The main objective of the present study was to verify whether the presence of flavonoids (flavone, apigenin, quercetin, morin and catechin) at different concentrations could protect dGuo from (1)O(2) damage. Of the tested flavonoids, flavone possessed antioxidant activity, as determined by a decrease in the formation of both products. Apigenin, morin, quercetin and catechin all increased the formation of 8-oxodGuo at a concentration of 100 mu M. The quantification of plasmid strand breaks after treatment with formamidopyrimidine-DNA glycosylase showed that flavone protected and quercetin and catechin enhanced DNA oxidation. Our results show that compounds, such as flavonoids, may affect the product distribution of (1)O(2)-mediated oxidation of dGuo, and, in particular, high concentrations of flavonoids with hydroxyl groups in their structure lead to an increase in the formation of the mutagenic lesion 8-oxodGuo. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

ANALYSIS & STUDY OF AI TECHNIQUES FORAUTOMATIC CONDITION MONITORING OFRAILWAY TRACK INFRASTRUCTURE : Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Since the last decade the problem of surface inspection has been receiving great attention from the scientific community, the quality control and the maintenance of products are key points in several industrial applications.The railway associations spent much money to check the railway infrastructure. The railway infrastructure is a particular field in which the periodical surface inspection can help the operator to prevent critical situations. The maintenance and monitoring of this infrastructure is an important aspect for railway association.That is why the surface inspection of railway also makes importance to the railroad authority to investigate track components, identify problems and finding out the way that how to solve these problems. In railway industry, usually the problems find in railway sleepers, overhead, fastener, rail head, switching and crossing and in ballast section as well. In this thesis work, I have reviewed some research papers based on AI techniques together with NDT techniques which are able to collect data from the test object without making any damage. The research works which I have reviewed and demonstrated that by adopting the AI based system, it is almost possible to solve all the problems and this system is very much reliable and efficient for diagnose problems of this transportation domain. I have reviewed solutions provided by different companies based on AI techniques, their products and reviewed some white papers provided by some of those companies. AI based techniques likemachine vision, stereo vision, laser based techniques and neural network are used in most cases to solve the problems which are performed by the railway engineers.The problems in railway handled by the AI based techniques performed by NDT approach which is a very broad, interdisciplinary field that plays a critical role in assuring that structural components and systems perform their function in a reliable and cost effective fashion. The NDT approach ensures the uniformity, quality and serviceability of materials without causing any damage of that materials is being tested. This testing methods use some way to test product like, Visual and Optical testing, Radiography, Magnetic particle testing, Ultrasonic testing, Penetrate testing, electro mechanic testing and acoustic emission testing etc. The inspection procedure has done periodically because of better maintenance. This inspection procedure done by the railway engineers manually with the aid of AI based techniques.The main idea of thesis work is to demonstrate how the problems can be reduced of thistransportation area based on the works done by different researchers and companies. And I have also provided some ideas and comments according to those works and trying to provide some proposal to use better inspection method where it is needed.The scope of this thesis work is automatic interpretation of data from NDT, with the goal of detecting flaws accurately and efficiently. AI techniques such as neural networks, machine vision, knowledge-based systems and fuzzy logic were applied to a wide spectrum of problems in this area. Another scope is to provide an insight into possible research methods concerning railway sleeper, fastener, ballast and overhead inspection by automatic interpretation of data.In this thesis work, I have discussed about problems which are arise in railway sleepers,fastener, and overhead and ballasted track. For this reason I have reviewed some research papers related with these areas and demonstrated how their systems works and the results of those systems. After all the demonstrations were taking place of the advantages of using AI techniques in contrast with those manual systems exist previously.This work aims to summarize the findings of a large number of research papers deploying artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for the automatic interpretation of data from nondestructive testing (NDT). Problems in rail transport domain are mainly discussed in this work. The overall work of this paper goes to the inspection of railway sleepers, fastener, ballast and overhead.

Dichlorvos exposure impedes extraction and amplification of DNA from insects in museum collections

Background: The insecticides dichlorvos, paradichlorobenzene and naphthalene have been commonly used to eradicate pest insects from natural history collections. However, it is not known how these chemicals affect the DNA of the specimens in the collections. We thus tested the effect of dichlorvos, paradichlorobenzene and naphthalene on DNA of insects (Musca domestica) by extracting and amplifying DNA from specimens exposed to insecticides in two different concentrations over increasing time intervals. Results: The results clearly show that dichlorvos impedes both extraction and amplification of mitochondrial and nuclear DNA after relatively short time, whereas paradichlorobenzene and naphthalene do not. Conclusion: Collections treated with paradichlorobenzene and naphthalene, are better preserved concerning DNA, than those treated with dichlorvos. Non toxic pest control methods should, however, be preferred due to physical damage of specimens and putative health risks by chemicals.

Reducing The Risk Of Floods In Urban Areas With Combined Inland-River System

With the change of the water environment in accordance with climate change, the loss of lives and properties has increased due to urban flood. Although the importance of urban floods has been highlighted quickly, the construction of advancement technology of an urban drainage system combined with inland-river water and its relevant research has not been emphasized in Korea. In addition, without operation in consideration of combined inland-river water, it is difficult to prevent urban flooding effectively. This study, therefore, develops the uncertainty quantification technology of the risk-based water level and the assessment technology of a flood-risk region through a flooding analysis of the combination of inland-river. The study is also conducted to develop forecast technology of change in the water level of an urban region through the construction of very short-term/short-term flood forecast systems. This study is expected to be able to build an urban flood forecast system which makes it possible to support decision making for systematic disaster prevention which can cope actively with climate change.

Extension And Testing Of A 2D Hydrodynamic Model For Direct Rainfall Runoff Simulation

While the simulation of flood risks originating from the overtopping of river banks is well covered within continuously evaluated programs to improve flood protection measures, flash flooding is not. Flash floods are triggered by short, local thunderstorm cells with high precipitation intensities. Small catchments have short response times and flow paths and convective thunder cells may result in potential flooding of endangered settlements. Assessing local flooding and pathways of flood requires a detailed hydraulic simulation of the surface runoff. Hydrological models usually do not incorporate surface runoff at this detailedness but rather empirical equations are applied for runoff detention. In return 2D hydrodynamic models usually do not allow distributed rainfall as input nor are any types of soil/surface interaction implemented as in hydrological models. Considering several cases of local flash flooding during the last years the issue emerged for practical reasons but as well as research topics to closing the model gap between distributed rainfall and distributed runoff formation. Therefore, a 2D hydrodynamic model, depth-averaged flow equations using the finite volume discretization, was extended to accept direct rainfall enabling to simulate the associated runoff formation. The model itself is used as numerical engine, rainfall is introduced via the modification of waterlevels at fixed time intervals. The paper not only deals with the general application of the software, but intends to test the numerical stability and reliability of simulation results. The performed tests are made using different artificial as well as measured rainfall series as input. Key parameters of the simulation such as losses, roughness or time intervals for water level manipulations are tested regarding their impact on the stability.

Analysis Of Semi-Distributed And Global Hydrological Models In The Central Tropical Basins Of The Gulf Of Mexico To The Effects Of Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena

In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

Umbelliferone induces changes in the structure and pharmacological activities of Bn IV, a phospholipase A(2) isoform isolated from Bothrops neuwiedi

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Impact of 24-h Cooling Prior to Freezing on the Survival of Domestic Cat (Felis catus) Epididymal Sperm

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of a 24-h cooling period prior to freezing on domestic cat epididymal sperm viability. Fifteen tomcats were submitted to routine orchiectomy and sperm samples were retrieved from both epididymides in a Tris-glucose-20% egg yolk extender. For each tomcat, the diluted sperm was split into two equal volumes and cooled to 5 degrees C at a rate of 0.5 degrees C/min; one sample for 60 min (control) and the other for 24 h (cooled). After the cooling period, samples from both groups were frozen using an identical freezing protocol. Sperm samples were evaluated in three different periods: immediately after harvesting, after cooling at 5 degrees C for 24 h (cooled group) and after freezing thawing of control and cooled groups. Evaluations consisted of sperm motility and progressive status, sperm morphology and plasma membrane integrity (PMI) using two fluorescent probes. After cooling for 24 h, a decrease (p < 0.05) in sperm motility, progressive status and PMI was observed when compared to sperm samples immediately after collection. Comparing the results obtained after thawing, no difference (p < 0.05) was found regarding sperm motility, progressive status, PMI and sperm morphology between control and cooled groups. The results from the present study show that cooling cat epididymal spermatozoa at 5 degrees C for 24 h prior to freezing does not lead to major damage of spermatozoa impairing the freeze-thaw process.

Methods of Concentrating Stallion Semen

Removal of excess seminal plasma is sometimes necessary to increase the quality and the longevity of cooled equine semen; moreover, this procedure is an indispensable step aiming to concentrate the sperm cells before freezing equine semen. Typically, the removal of seminal plasma is achieved by centrifugation; however, studies have shown that the force and duration of centrifugation can damage sperm cells and reduce the sperm recovery rate. Recently, new methodologies, such as cushion and filtration, have been described that aim to decrease the mechanical damage of centrifugation to sperm cells. This study aims to compare different methods for concentrating stallion semen.

Resolution of a titanium implant fracture after a recurrent trauma

Post-traumatic complications occasionally lead to tooth loss as well as the need for future implants. However, rehabilitation with endosseous osseointegrated implants does not protect the patient from the risk of suffering a new trauma. Implant fracture and the damage of the hexagon are post-traumatic complications that guide the clinician to preparing a more intricate treatment plan. The authors present a clinical case of a recurrent trauma of maxillary implant fracture. The treatment plan was to remove the implants followed by autogenous bone grafting to correct the defect. Two titanium implants were replaced, followed by connective tissue graft after allowing complete the healing process of the bone graft to occur. In the postoperative period of 6 months, satisfactory results have been shown as regards soft and hard tissues wound healing.