Lack of Critical Slowing Down Suggests that Financial Meltdowns Are Not Critical Transitions, yet Rising Variability Could Signal Systemic Risk

Complex systems inspired analysis suggests a hypothesis that financial meltdowns are abrupt critical transitions that occur when the system reaches a tipping point. Theoretical and empirical studies on climatic and ecological dynamical systems have shown that approach to tipping points is preceded by a generic phenomenon called critical slowing down, i.e. an increasingly slow response of the system to perturbations. Therefore, it has been suggested that critical slowing down may be used as an early warning signal of imminent critical transitions. Whether financial markets exhibit critical slowing down prior to meltdowns remains unclear. Here, our analysis reveals that three major US (Dow Jones Index, S&P 500 and NASDAQ) and two European markets (DAX and FTSE) did not exhibit critical slowing down prior to major financial crashes over the last century. However, all markets showed strong trends of rising variability, quantified by time series variance and spectral function at low frequencies, prior to crashes. These results suggest that financial crashes are not critical transitions that occur in the vicinity of a tipping point. Using a simple model, we argue that financial crashes are likely to be stochastic transitions which can occur even when the system is far away from the tipping point. Specifically, we show that a gradually increasing strength of stochastic perturbations may have caused to abrupt transitions in the financial markets. Broadly, our results highlight the importance of stochastically driven abrupt transitions in real world scenarios. Our study offers rising variability as a precursor of financial meltdowns albeit with a limitation that they may signal false alarms.

Magnetic structures and magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied by neutron powder diffraction

The magnetic structures and the magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied using neutron powder diffraction are reported. Magnetic phase transitions are identified at T-N(Fe/Mn) approximate to 295K where a paramagnetic-to-antiferromagnetic transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice, T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K where a spin-reorientation transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice and T-N(R) approximate to 2K where Tb-ordering starts to manifest. At 295 K, the magnetic structure of the Fe/Mn sublattice in TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 belongs to the irreducible representation Gamma(4) (G(x)A(y)F(z) or Pb'n'm). A mixed-domain structure of (Gamma(1) + Gamma(4)) is found at 250K which remains stable down to the spin re-orientation transition at T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K. Below 26K and above 250 K, the majority phase (>80%) is that of Gamma(4). Below 10K the high-temperature phase Gamma(4) remains stable till 2K. At 2 K, Tb develops a magnetic moment value of 0.6(2) mu(B)/f.u. and orders long-range in F-z compatible with the Gamma(4) representation. Our study confirms the magnetic phase transitions reported already in a single crystal of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 and, in addition, reveals the presence of mixed magnetic domains. The ratio of these magnetic domains as a function of temperature is estimated from Rietveld refinement of neutron diffraction data. Indications of short-range magnetic correlations are present in the low-Q region of the neutron diffraction patterns at T < T-SR(Fe/Mn). These results should motivate further experimental work devoted to measure electric polarization and magnetocapacitance of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

Magnetic structures and magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied by neutron powder diffraction

The magnetic structures and the magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied using neutron powder diffraction are reported. Magnetic phase transitions are identified at T-N(Fe/Mn) approximate to 295K where a paramagnetic-to-antiferromagnetic transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice, T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K where a spin-reorientation transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice and T-N(R) approximate to 2K where Tb-ordering starts to manifest. At 295 K, the magnetic structure of the Fe/Mn sublattice in TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 belongs to the irreducible representation Gamma(4) (G(x)A(y)F(z) or Pb'n'm). A mixed-domain structure of (Gamma(1) + Gamma(4)) is found at 250K which remains stable down to the spin re-orientation transition at T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K. Below 26K and above 250 K, the majority phase (>80%) is that of Gamma(4). Below 10K the high-temperature phase Gamma(4) remains stable till 2K. At 2 K, Tb develops a magnetic moment value of 0.6(2) mu(B)/f.u. and orders long-range in F-z compatible with the Gamma(4) representation. Our study confirms the magnetic phase transitions reported already in a single crystal of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 and, in addition, reveals the presence of mixed magnetic domains. The ratio of these magnetic domains as a function of temperature is estimated from Rietveld refinement of neutron diffraction data. Indications of short-range magnetic correlations are present in the low-Q region of the neutron diffraction patterns at T < T-SR(Fe/Mn). These results should motivate further experimental work devoted to measure electric polarization and magnetocapacitance of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

Transitions and blowoff of unconfined non-premixed swirling flame

The present experimental work reports the first observations of primary and secondary transitions in the time-averaged flame topology in a non-premixed swirling flame as the geometric swirl number S-G (a non dimensional number used to quantify the intensity of imparted swirl) is varied from a magnitude of zero till flame blowout. First observations of two transition types viz. primary and secondary transitions are reported. The primary transition represents a transformation from yellow straight jet flame (at S-G = 0) to lifted flame with blue base and finally to swirling seated (burner attached) yellow flame. Time-averaged streamline plot obtained from 2D PIV in mid-longitudinal plane shows a recirculation zone (RZ) at the immediate vicinity of burner exit. The lifted flame is stabilized along the vortex core of this RZ. Further, when S-G similar to 1.4-3, the first occurrence of vortex breakdown (VB) induced internal recirculation zone (IRZ) is witnessed. The flame now stabilizes at the upstream stagnation point of the VB-IRZ, which is attached to the burner lip. The secondary transition represents a transformation from a swirling seated flame to swirling flame with a conical tailpiece and finally to a highly-swirled near blowout oxidizer-rich flame. This transition is understood to be the result of transition in vortex breakdown modes of the swirling flow field from dual-ring VB bubble to central toroidal recirculation zone (CTRZ). The physics of transition is described on the basis of modified Rossby number (Ro(m)). Finally, when the swirl intensity is very high i.e. SG similar to 10, the flame blows out due to excessive straining and due to entrainment of large amount of oxidizer due to partial premixing. The present investigation involving changes in flame topology is immensely important because any change in global flame structure causes oscillatory heat release that can couple with dynamic pressure and velocity fluctuations leading to unsteady combustion. In this light, understanding mechanisms of flame stabilization is essential to tackle the problem of thermo-acoustic instability. (C) 2015 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Morphological transitions and buckling characteristics in a nanoparticle-laden sessile droplet resting on a heated hydrophobic substrate

In this work, we have established the evaporation-liquid flow coupling mechanism by which sessile nanofluid droplets on a hydrophobic substrate evaporate and agglomerate to form unique morphological features under controlled external heating. It is well understood that evaporation coupled with internal liquid flow controls particle transport in a spatiotemporal sense. Flow characteristics inside the heated droplet are investigated and found to be driven by the buoyancy effects. Velocity magnitudes are observed to increase by an order at higher temperatures with similar looking flow profiles. The recirculating flow induced particle transport coupled with collision of particles and shear interaction between them leads to the formation of dome shaped viscoelastic shells of different dimensions depending on the surface temperature. These shells undergo sol-gel transition and subsequently undergo buckling instability leading to the formation of daughter cavities. With an increase in the surface temperature, droplets exhibit buckling from multiple sites over a larger sector in the top half of the droplet. Irrespective of the initial nanoparticle concentration and substrate temperature, growth of a daughter cavity (subsequent to buckling) inside the droplet is found to be controlled by the solvent evaporation rate from the droplet periphery and is shown to exhibit a universal trend.

Magnetic structures and magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied by neutron powder diffraction

The magnetic structures and the magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied using neutron powder diffraction are reported. Magnetic phase transitions are identified at T-N(Fe/Mn) approximate to 295K where a paramagnetic-to-antiferromagnetic transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice, T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K where a spin-reorientation transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice and T-N(R) approximate to 2K where Tb-ordering starts to manifest. At 295 K, the magnetic structure of the Fe/Mn sublattice in TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 belongs to the irreducible representation Gamma(4) (G(x)A(y)F(z) or Pb'n'm). A mixed-domain structure of (Gamma(1) + Gamma(4)) is found at 250K which remains stable down to the spin re-orientation transition at T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K. Below 26K and above 250 K, the majority phase (>80%) is that of Gamma(4). Below 10K the high-temperature phase Gamma(4) remains stable till 2K. At 2 K, Tb develops a magnetic moment value of 0.6(2) mu(B)/f.u. and orders long-range in F-z compatible with the Gamma(4) representation. Our study confirms the magnetic phase transitions reported already in a single crystal of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 and, in addition, reveals the presence of mixed magnetic domains. The ratio of these magnetic domains as a function of temperature is estimated from Rietveld refinement of neutron diffraction data. Indications of short-range magnetic correlations are present in the low-Q region of the neutron diffraction patterns at T < T-SR(Fe/Mn). These results should motivate further experimental work devoted to measure electric polarization and magnetocapacitance of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

Magnetic structures and magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied by neutron powder diffraction

The magnetic structures and the magnetic phase transitions in the Mn-doped orthoferrite TbFeO3 studied using neutron powder diffraction are reported. Magnetic phase transitions are identified at T-N(Fe/Mn) approximate to 295K where a paramagnetic-to-antiferromagnetic transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice, T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K where a spin-reorientation transition occurs in the Fe/Mn sublattice and T-N(R) approximate to 2K where Tb-ordering starts to manifest. At 295 K, the magnetic structure of the Fe/Mn sublattice in TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 belongs to the irreducible representation Gamma(4) (G(x)A(y)F(z) or Pb'n'm). A mixed-domain structure of (Gamma(1) + Gamma(4)) is found at 250K which remains stable down to the spin re-orientation transition at T-SR(Fe/Mn) approximate to 26K. Below 26K and above 250 K, the majority phase (>80%) is that of Gamma(4). Below 10K the high-temperature phase Gamma(4) remains stable till 2K. At 2 K, Tb develops a magnetic moment value of 0.6(2) mu(B)/f.u. and orders long-range in F-z compatible with the Gamma(4) representation. Our study confirms the magnetic phase transitions reported already in a single crystal of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3 and, in addition, reveals the presence of mixed magnetic domains. The ratio of these magnetic domains as a function of temperature is estimated from Rietveld refinement of neutron diffraction data. Indications of short-range magnetic correlations are present in the low-Q region of the neutron diffraction patterns at T < T-SR(Fe/Mn). These results should motivate further experimental work devoted to measure electric polarization and magnetocapacitance of TbFe0.5Mn0.5O3. (C) 2016 AIP Publishing LLC.

Two bifurcation transitions of the floating half zone convection in a fat liquid bridge of larger Pr

The transient process of the thermocapillary convection was obtained for the large Pu floating half zone by using the method of three-dimensional and unsteady numerical simulation. The convection transits directly from steady and axisymmetric state to oscillatory flow for slender liquid bridge, and transits first from steady and axisymmetric convection to the steady and non-axisymmetric convection, then, secondly to the oscillatory convection for the fatter liquid bridge. This result implies that the volume of liquid bridge is not only a sensitive critical parameter for the onset of oscillation, but also relates to the new mechanism for the onset of instability in the floating half zone convection even in case of large Prandtl number fluid.

Phase transitions in planar magnetic nanostructures

Using numerical micromagnetics we have studied the ground state magnetization distribution of square planar ferromagnetic elements ("nanostructures"). As the element size is reduced from 250 to 2 nm at constant thickness (2-35 nm), we find that the magnetization distribution undergoes up to three phase transitions involving as many as three different near single domain states. One of these phase transitions is analogous to the reorientation phase transition observed in continuous ultrathin magnetic films. © 1998 American Institute of Physics.

Transitions Between Different Contact Models

The transitions between the different contact models which include the Hertz, Bradley, Johnson-Kendall-Roberts (JKR), Derjaguin-Muller-Toporov (DMT) and Maugis-Dugdale (MD) models are revealed by analyzing their contact pressure profiles and surface interactions. Inside the contact area, surface interaction/adhesion induces tensile contact pressure around the contact edge. Outside the contact area, whether or not to consider the surface interaction has a significant influence on the contact system equilibrium. The difference in contact pressure due to the surface interaction inside the contact area and the equilibrium influenced by the surface interaction outside the contact area are physically responsible for the different results of the different models. A systematic study on the transitions between different models is shown by analyzing the contact pressure profiles and the surface interactions both inside and outside the contact area. The definitions of contact radius and the flatness of contact surfaces are also discussed. (C) Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, 2008.

Effect Of Load Triaxiality On Polymorphic Transitions In Zinc Oxide

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and first-principles calculations are carried out to analyze the stability of both newly discovered and previously known phases of ZnO under loading of various triaxialities. The analysis focuses on a graphite-like phase (FIX) and a body-centered-tetragonal phase (BCT-4) that were observed recently in [0 1 (1) over bar 0]- and [0 0 0 1]-oriented nanowires respectively under uniaxial tensile loading as well as the natural state of wurtzite (WZ) and the rocksalt (RS) phase which exists under hydrostatic pressure loading. Equilibrium critical stresses for the transformations are obtained. The WZ -> HX transformation is found to be energetically favorable above a critical tensile stress of 10 GPa in [0 1 (1) over tilde 0] nanowires. The BCT-4 phase can be stabilized at tensile stresses above 7 GPa in [0 0 0 1] nanowires. The RS phase is stable at hydrostatic pressures above 8.2 GPa. The identification and characterization of these phase transformations reveal a more extensive polymorphism of ZnO than previously known. A crystalline structure-load triaxiality map is developed to summarize the new understanding. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-photon-excited upconversion luminescence of YVO4 single crystal by infrared femtosecond laser irradiation

We report on the upconversion luminescence of a pure YVO4 single crystal excited by an infrared femtosecond laser. The luminescent spectra show that the upconversion luminescence comes from the transitions from the lowest excited states T-3(1), T-3(2) to the ground state (1)A(1) of the VO43-. The dependence of the fluorescence intensity on the pump power density of laser indicates that the conversion of infrared irradiation to visible emission is dominated by three-photon excitation process. We suggest that the simultaneous absorption of three infrared photons promotes the VO43- to excited states, which quickly cascade down to lowest excited states, and radiatively relax to ground states, resulting in the broad characteristic fluorescence of VO43-. (c) 2005 Optical Society of America.

Three-dimensional models of mantle convection : influence of phase transitions and temperature-dependent viscosity

<p>Two of the most important questions in mantle dynamics are investigated in three separate studies: the influence of phase transitions (studies 1 and 2), and the influence of temperature-dependent viscosity (study 3).</p> <p>(1) Numerical modeling of mantle convection in a three-dimensional spherical shell incorporating the two major mantle phase transitions reveals an inherently three-dimensional flow pattern characterized by accumulation of cold downwellings above the 670 km discontinuity, and cylindrical 'avalanches' of upper mantle material into the lower mantle. The exothermic phase transition at 400 km depth reduces the degree of layering. A region of strongly-depressed temperature occurs at the base of the mantle. The temperature field is strongly modulated by this partial layering, both locally and in globally-averaged diagnostics. Flow penetration is strongly wavelength-dependent, with easy penetration at long wavelengths but strong inhibition at short wavelengths. The amplitude of the geoid is not significantly affected.</p> <p>(2) Using a simple criterion for the deflection of an upwelling or downwelling by an endothermic phase transition, the scaling of the critical phase buoyancy parameter with the important lengthscales is obtained. The derived trends match those observed in numerical simulations, i.e., deflection is enhanced by (a) shorter wavelengths, (b) narrower up/downwellings (c) internal heating and (d) narrower phase loops.</p> <p>(3) A systematic investigation into the effects of temperature-dependent viscosity on mantle convection has been performed in three-dimensional Cartesian geometry, with a factor of 1000-2500 viscosity variation, and Rayleigh numbers of 10^5-10^7. Enormous differences in model behavior are found, depending on the details of rheology, heating mode, compressibility and boundary conditions. Stress-free boundaries, compressibility, and temperature-dependent viscosity all favor long-wavelength flows, even in internally heated cases. However, small cells are obtained with some parameter combinations. Downwelling plumes and upwelling sheets are possible when viscosity is dependent solely on temperature. Viscous dissipation becomes important with temperature-dependent viscosity.</p> <p>The sensitivity of mantle flow and structure to these various complexities illustrates the importance of performing mantle convection calculations with rheological and thermodynamic properties matching as closely as possible those of the Earth.</p>

Fermionic quantum systems. Part I: Phase transitions in quantum dots. Part II: Nuclear matter on a lattice

<p>In the first part I perform Hartree-Fock calculations to show that quantum dots (i.e., two-dimensional systems of up to twenty interacting electrons in an external parabolic potential) undergo a gradual transition to a spin-polarized Wigner crystal with increasing magnetic field strength. The phase diagram and ground state energies have been determined. I tried to improve the ground state of the Wigner crystal by introducing a Jastrow ansatz for the wave function and performing a variational Monte Carlo calculation. The existence of so called magic numbers was also investigated. Finally, I also calculated the heat capacity associated with the rotational degree of freedom of deformed many-body states and suggest an experimental method to detect Wigner crystals.</p> <p>The second part of the thesis investigates infinite nuclear matter on a cubic lattice. The exact thermal formalism describes nucleons with a Hamiltonian that accommodates on-site and next-neighbor parts of the central, spin-exchange and isospin-exchange interaction. Using auxiliary field Monte Carlo methods, I show that energy and basic saturation properties of nuclear matter can be reproduced. A first order phase transition from an uncorrelated Fermi gas to a clustered system is observed by computing mechanical and thermodynamical quantities such as compressibility, heat capacity, entropy and grand potential. The structure of the clusters is investigated with the help two-body correlations. I compare symmetry energy and first sound velocities with literature and find reasonable agreement. I also calculate the energy of pure neutron matter and search for a similar phase transition, but the survey is restricted by the infamous Monte Carlo sign problem. Also, a regularization scheme to extract potential parameters from scattering lengths and effective ranges is investigated.</p>