The effect of a large freshwater perturbation on the glacial north Atlantic Ocean using a coupled general circulation model

The commonly held view of the conditions in the North Atlantic at the last glacial maximum, based on the interpretation of proxy records, is of large-scale cooling compared to today, limited deep convection, and extensive sea ice, all associated with a southward displaced and weakened overturning thermohaline circulation (THC) in the North Atlantic. Not all studies support that view; in particular, the "strength of the overturning circulation" is contentious and is a quantity that is difficult to determine even for the present day. Quasi-equilibrium simulations with coupled climate models forced by glacial boundary conditions have produced differing results, as have inferences made from proxy records. Most studies suggest the weaker circulation, some suggest little or no change, and a few suggest a stronger circulation. Here results are presented from a three-dimensional climate model, the Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3 (HadCM3), of the coupled atmosphere - ocean - sea ice system suggesting, in a qualitative sense, that these diverging views could all have occurred at different times during the last glacial period, with different modes existing at different times. One mode might have been characterized by an active THC associated with moderate temperatures in the North Atlantic and a modest expanse of sea ice. The other mode, perhaps forced by large inputs of meltwater from the continental ice sheets into the northern North Atlantic, might have been characterized by a sluggish THC associated with very cold conditions around the North Atlantic and a large areal cover of sea ice. The authors' model simulation of such a mode, forced by a large input of freshwater, bears several of the characteristics of the Climate: Long-range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) Project's reconstruction of glacial sea surface temperature and sea ice extent.

Toward an integrated seasonal forecasting system for South America

This study proposes an objective integrated seasonal forecasting system for producing well-calibrated probabilistic rainfall forecasts for South America. The proposed system has two components: ( i) an empirical model that uses Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies as predictors for rainfall and ( ii) a multimodel system composed of three European coupled ocean - atmosphere models. Three-month lead austral summer rainfall predictions produced by the components of the system are integrated ( i. e., combined and calibrated) using a Bayesian forecast assimilation procedure. The skill of empirical, coupled multimodel, and integrated forecasts obtained with forecast assimilation is assessed and compared. The simple coupled multimodel ensemble has a comparable level of skill to that obtained using a simplified empirical approach. As for most regions of the globe, seasonal forecast skill for South America is low. However, when empirical and coupled multimodel predictions are combined and calibrated using forecast assimilation, more skillful integrated forecasts are obtained than with either empirical or coupled multimodel predictions alone. Both the reliability and resolution of the forecasts have been improved by forecast assimilation in several regions of South America. The Tropics and the area of southern Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay, and northern Argentina have been found to be the two most predictable regions of South America during the austral summer. Skillful rainfall forecasts are generally only possible during El Nino or La Nina years rather than in neutral years.

Influence of the seasonal cycle on the termination of El Nino events in a coupled general circulation model

In this study, the mechanisms leading to the El Nino peak and demise are explored through a coupled general circulation model ensemble approach evaluated against observations. The results here suggest that the timing of the peak and demise for intense El Nino events is highly predictable as the evolution of the coupled system is strongly driven by a southward shift of the intense equatorial Pacific westerly anomalies during boreal winter. In fact, this systematic late-year shift drives an intense eastern Pacific thermocline shallowing, constraining a rapid El Nino demise in the following months. This wind shift results from a southward displacement in winter of the central Pacific warmest SSTs in response to the seasonal evolution of solar insolation. In contrast, the intensity of this seasonal feedback mechanism and its impact on the coupled system are significantly weaker in moderate El Nino events, resulting in a less pronounced thermocline shallowing. This shallowing transfers the coupled system into an unstable state in spring but is not sufficient to systematically constrain the equatorial Pacific evolution toward a rapid El Nino termination. However, for some moderate events, the occurrence of intense easterly wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific during that period initiate a rapid surge of cold SSTs leading to La Nina conditions. In other cases, weaker trade winds combined with a slightly deeper thermocline allow the coupled system to maintain a broad warm phase evolving through the entire spring and summer and a delayed El Nino demise, an evolution that is similar to the prolonged 1986/87 El Nino event. La Nina events also show a similar tendency to peak in boreal winter, with characteristics and mechanisms mainly symmetric to those described for moderate El Nino cases.

Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model

In the 1960s, Jacob Bjerknes suggested that if the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes and the oceanic heat storage did not vary too much, then the total energy transport by the climate system would not vary too much either. This implies that any large anomalies of oceanic and atmospheric energy transport should be equal and opposite. This simple scenario has become known as Bjerknes compensation. A long control run of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3) has been investigated. It was found that northern extratropical decadal anomalies of atmospheric and oceanic energy transports are significantly anticorrelated and have similar magnitudes, which is consistent with the predictions of Bjerknes compensation. ne degree of compensation in the northern extratropics was found to increase with increasing, time scale. Bjerknes compensation did not occur in the Tropics, primarily as large changes in the surface fluxes were associated with large changes in the TOA fluxes. In the ocean, the decadal variability of the energy transport is associated with fluctuations in the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. A stronger Atlantic Ocean energy transport leads to strong warming of surface temperatures in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. which results in a reduced equator-to-pole surface temperature gradient and reduced atmospheric baroclinicity. It is argued that a stronger Atlantic Ocean energy transport leads to a weakened atmospheric transient energy transport.

Indian Ocean-monsoon coupled interactions and impending monsoon droughts

Monsoon droughts over the Indian subcontinent emanate from failures in the seasonal (June-September) monsoon rains. While prolonged dry-spells ("monsoon-breaks'') pervade on sub-seasonal/intra-seasonal time-scales, the underlying causes for these long-lasting anomalies remain elusive. Based on analyses of a suite of observed data sets, we report an ocean-atmosphere dynamical coupling on intra-seasonal time-scales, in the tropical Indian Ocean, which is pivotal in forcing extended monsoon-breaks and causing droughts over the subcontinent. This coupling involves a feedback between the monsoonal flow and thermocline depth in the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO), in which an anomaly of the summer monsoon circulation induces downwelling and maintains a higher-than-normal heat-content. The near-equatorial anomalies induce strong and sustained suppression of monsoon rainfall over the subcontinent. It is concluded that the intra-seasonal evolution of the ocean-monsoon coupled system is a vital key to unlocking the dynamics of monsoon droughts.

Predicting magnetospheric dynamics with a coupled sun-to-Earth model: challenges and first results

Results from the first Sun-to-Earth coupled numerical model developed at the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling are presented. The model simulates physical processes occurring in space spanning from the corona of the Sun to the Earth's ionosphere, and it represents the first step toward creating a physics-based numerical tool for predicting space weather conditions in the near-Earth environment. Two 6- to 7-d intervals, representing different heliospheric conditions in terms of the three-dimensional configuration of the heliospheric current sheet, are chosen for simulations. These conditions lead to drastically different responses of the simulated magnetosphere-ionosphere system, emphasizing, on the one hand, challenges one encounters in building such forecasting tools, and on the other hand, emphasizing successes that can already be achieved even at this initial stage of Sun-to-Earth modeling.

ENSO at 6ka and 21ka from ocean–atmosphere coupled model simulations

We analyze how the characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are changed in coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations of the mid-Holocene (MH) and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) performed as part of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2). Comparison of the model results with present day observations show that most of the models reproduce the large scale features of the tropical Pacific like the SST gradient, the mean SST and the mean seasonal cycles. All models simulate the ENSO variability, although with different skill. Our analyses show that several relationships between El Niño amplitude and the mean state across the different control simulations are still valid for simulations of the MH and the LGM. Results for the MH show a consistent El Niño amplitude decrease. It can be related to the large scale atmospheric circulation changes. While the Northern Hemisphere receives more insolation during the summer time, the Asian summer monsoon system is strengthened which leads to the enhancement of the Walker circulation. Easterlies prevailing over the central eastern Pacific induce an equatorial upwelling that damps the El Niño development. Results are less conclusive for 21ka. Large scale dynamic competes with changes in local heat fluxes, so that model shows a wide range of responses, as it is the case in future climate projections.

The role of lateral ocean physics in the upper ocean thermal balance of a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

The sensitivity of the upper ocean thermal balance of an ocean-atmosphere coupled GCM to lateral ocean physics is assessed. Three 40-year simulations are performed using horizontal mixing, isopycnal mixing, and isopycnal mixing plus eddy induced advection. The thermal adjustment of the coupled system is quite different between the simulations, confirming the major role of ocean mixing on the heat balance of climate. The initial adjustment phase of the upper ocean (SST) is used to diagnose the physical mechanisms involved in each parametrisation. When the lateral ocean physics is modified, significant changes of SST are seen, mainly in the southern ocean. A heat budget of the annual mixed layer (defined as the “bowl”) shows that these changes are due to a modified heat transfer between the bowl and the ocean interior. This modified heat intake of the ocean interior is directly due to the modified lateral ocean physics. In isopycnal diffusion, this heat exchange, especially marked at mid-latitudes, is both due to an increased effective surface of diffusion and to the sign of the isopycnal gradients of temperature at the base of the bowl. As this gradient is proportional to the isopycnal gradient of salinity, this confirms the strong role of salinity in the thermal balance of the coupled system. The eddy induced advection also leads to increased exchanges between the bowl and the ocean interior. This is both due to the shape of the bowl and again to the existence of a salinity structure. The lateral ocean physics is shown to be a significant contributor to the exchanges between the diabatic and the adiabatic parts of the ocean.

Performance of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 global ocean-atmosphere coupled model

The climatology of the OPA/ARPEGE-T21 coupled general circulation model (GCM) is presented. The atmosphere GCM has a T21 spectral truncation and the ocean GCM has a 2°×1.5° average resolution. A 50-year climatic simulation is performed using the OASIS coupler, without flux correction techniques. The mean state and seasonal cycle for the last 10 years of the experiment are described and compared to the corresponding uncoupled experiments and to climatology when available. The model reasonably simulates most of the basic features of the observed climate. Energy budgets and transports in the coupled system, of importance for climate studies, are assessed and prove to be within available estimates. After an adjustment phase of a few years, the model stabilizes around a mean state where the tropics are warm and resemble a permanent ENSO, the Southern Ocean warms and almost no sea-ice is left in the Southern Hemisphere. The atmospheric circulation becomes more zonal and symmetric with respect to the equator. Once those systematic errors are established, the model shows little secular drift, the small remaining trends being mainly associated to horizontal physics in the ocean GCM. The stability of the model is shown to be related to qualities already present in the uncoupled GCMs used, namely a balanced radiation budget at the top-of-the-atmosphere and a tight ocean thermocline.

The v2, v5 Raman band system of 13CH3F

The anisotropic and isotropic components of the ν2, ν5 rotation-vibrational Raman bands of 13CH3F were obtained separately. The two upper states are coupled by a strong second-order Coriolis resonance. The anisotropic spectrum was analyzed by means of a program system due to R. Escribano. A contour simulation and a least-squares fit of 233 assigned transitions yielded values for ν5, ΔA5, ΔA2, and Aζ5a, 5b(z). The 13C shifts of ν2 and ν5 were obtained from the isotropic spectrum.

Development and assessment of a coupled crop-climate model

It is well established that crop production is inherently vulnerable to variations in the weather and climate. More recently the influence of vegetation on the state of the atmosphere has been recognized. The seasonal growth of crops can influence the atmosphere and have local impacts on the weather, which in turn affects the rate of seasonal crop growth and development. Considering the coupled nature of the crop-climate system, and the fact that a significant proportion of land is devoted to the cultivation of crops, important interactions may be missed when studying crops and the climate system in isolation, particularly in the context of land use and climate change. To represent the two-way interactions between seasonal crop growth and atmospheric variability, we integrate a crop model developed specifically to operate at large spatial scales (General Large Area Model for annual crops) into the land surface component of a global climate model (GCM; HadAM3). In the new coupled crop-climate model, the simulated environment (atmosphere and soil states) influences growth and development of the crop, while simultaneously the temporal variations in crop leaf area and height across its growing season alter the characteristics of the land surface that are important determinants of surface fluxes of heat and moisture, as well as other aspects of the land-surface hydrological cycle. The coupled model realistically simulates the seasonal growth of a summer annual crop in response to the GCM's simulated weather and climate. The model also reproduces the observed relationship between seasonal rainfall and crop yield. The integration of a large-scale single crop model into a GCM, as described here, represents a first step towards the development of fully coupled crop and climate models. Future development priorities and challenges related to coupling crop and climate models are discussed.

Modelling the interdependence between the stoichiometry of receptor oligomerization and ligand binding for a coexisting dimer/tetramer receptor system

Many G protein-coupled receptors have been shown to exist as oligomers, but the oligomerization state and the effects of this on receptor function are unclear. For some G protein-coupled receptors, in ligand binding assays, different radioligands provide different maximal binding capacities. Here we have developed mathematical models for co-expressed dimeric and tetrameric species of receptors. We have considered models where the dimers and tetramers are in equilibrium and where they do not interconvert and we have also considered the potential influence of the ligands on the degree of oligomerization. By analogy with agonist efficacy, we have considered ligands that promote, inhibit or have no effect on oligomerization. Cell surface receptor expression and the intrinsic capacity of receptors to oligomerize are quantitative parameters of the equations. The models can account for differences in the maximal binding capacities of radioligands in different preparations of receptors and provide a conceptual framework for simulation and data fitting in complex oligomeric receptor situations.

A cost-effective high-throughput digital system for observation and acquisition of animal behavioral data

We have designed and implemented a low-cost digital system using closed-circuit television cameras coupled to a digital acquisition system for the recording of in vivo behavioral data in rodents and for allowing observation and recording of more than 10 animals simultaneously at a reduced cost, as compared with commercially available solutions. This system has been validated using two experimental rodent models: one involving chemically induced seizures and one assessing appetite and feeding. We present observational results showing comparable or improved levels of accuracy and observer consistency between this new system and traditional methods in these experimental models, discuss advantages of the presented system over conventional analog systems and commercially available digital systems, and propose possible extensions to the system and applications to non-rodent studies.

Rifaximin modulates the colonic microbiota of patients with Crohn's disease: an in vitro approach using a continuous culture colonic model system.

Rifaximin, a rifamycin derivative, has been reported to induce clinical remission of active Crohn's disease (CD), a chronic inflammatory bowel disorder. In order to understand how rifaximin affects the colonic microbiota and its metabolism, an in vitro human colonic model system was used in this study. We investigated the impact of the administration of 1800 mg/day of rifaximin on the faecal microbiota of four patients affected by colonic active CD [Crohn's disease activity index (CDAI > 200)] using a continuous culture colonic model system. We studied the effect of rifaximin on the human gut microbiota using fluorescence in situ hybridization, quantitative PCR and PCR–denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. Furthermore, we investigated the effect of the antibiotic on microbial metabolic profiles, using 1H-NMR and solid phase microextraction coupled with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, and its potential genotoxicity and cytotoxicity, using Comet and growth curve assays. Rifaximin did not affect the overall composition of the gut microbiota, whereas it caused an increase in concentration of Bifidobacterium, Atopobium and Faecalibacterium prausnitzii. A shift in microbial metabolism was observed, as shown by increases in short-chain fatty acids, propanol, decanol, nonanone and aromatic organic compounds, and decreases in ethanol, methanol and glutamate. No genotoxicity or cytotoxicity was attributed to rifaximin, and conversely rifaximin was shown to have a chemopreventive role by protecting against hydrogen peroxide-induced DNA damage. We demonstrated that rifaximin, while not altering the overall structure of the human colonic microbiota, increased bifidobacteria and led to variation of metabolic profiles associated with potential beneficial effects on the host.

Dependence of Indian monsoon rainfall on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea and the impact of coupled model sea surface temperature biases

The Arabian Sea is an important moisture source for Indian monsoon rainfall. The skill of climate models in simulating the monsoon and its variability varies widely, while Arabian Sea cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases are common in coupled models and may therefore influence the monsoon and its sensitivity to climate change. We examine the relationship between monsoon rainfall, moisture fluxes and Arabian Sea SST in observations and climate model simulations. Observational analysis shows strong monsoons depend on moisture fluxes across the Arabian Sea, however detecting consistent signals with contemporaneous summer SST anomalies is complicated in the observed system by air/sea coupling and large-scale induced variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation feeding back onto the monsoon through development of the Somali Jet. Comparison of HadGEM3 coupled and atmosphere-only configurations suggests coupled model cold SST biases significantly reduce monsoon rainfall. Idealised atmosphere-only experiments show that the weakened monsoon can be mainly attributed to systematic Arabian Sea cold SST biases during summer and their impact on the monsoon-moisture relationship. The impact of large cold SST biases on atmospheric moisture content over the Arabian Sea, and also the subsequent reduced latent heat release over India, dominates over any enhancement in the land-sea temperature gradient and results in changes to the mean state. We hypothesize that a cold base state will result in underestimation of the impact of larger projected Arabian Sea SST changes in future climate, suggesting that Arabian Sea biases should be a clear target for model development.