On the performance of small-area estimators: Fixed vs. random area parameters

Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.

Impact of small variations in temperature and humidity on the reproductive activity and survival of Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae)

In short space of time increase in temperature and rainfall can affect vector populations and, consequently, the diseases for them transmitted. The present study analyzed the effect of small temperature and humidity variations on the fecundity, fertility and survival of Aedes aegypti. These parameters were analyzed using individual females at temperatures ranging from 23 to 27 °C (mean 25 °C); 28 to 32 °C (mean 30 °C) and 33 to 37 °C (mean 35 ºC) associated to 60±8% and 80±6% relative humidity. Females responded to an increase in temperature by reducing egg production, oviposition time and changing oviposition patterns. At 25 ºC and 80% relative humidity, females survived two-fold more and produced 40% more eggs when compared to those kept at 35 ºC and 80% relative humidity. However, in 45% of females kept at 35 ºC and 60% relative humidity oviposition was inhibited and only 15% females laid more than 100 eggs, suggesting that the intensity of the temperature effect was influenced by humidity. Gradual reductions in egg fertility at 60% relative humidity were observed with the increase in temperature, although such effect was not found in the 80% relative humidity at 25 º C and 30 º C. These results suggest that the reduction in population densities recorded in tropical areas during seasons when temperatures reach over 35 ºC is likely to be strongly influenced by temperature and humidity, with a negative effect on several aspects of mosquito biology.

An empirical evaluation of small area estimators

This paper investigates the comparative performance of five small areaestimators. We use Monte Carlo simulation in the context of boththeoretical and empirical populations. In addition to the direct andindirect estimators, we consider the optimal composite estimator withpopulation weights, and two composite estimators with estimatedweights: one that assumes homogeneity of within area variance andsquare bias, and another one that uses area specific estimates ofvariance and square bias. It is found that among the feasibleestimators, the best choice is the one that uses area specificestimates of variance and square bias.

R&D in the pharmaceutical industry: A world of small innovations

It is commonly argued that in recent years pharmaceutical companies have directed theirR&D towards small improvements of existing compounds instead of more risky drastic innovations. In this paper we show that the proliferation of these small innovations is likely to be linked to the lack of market sensitivity of a part of the demand to changes in prices. Compared to their social contribution, small innovations are relatively more profitable than large ones because they are targeted to the smaller but more inelastic part of the demand. We also study the effect of regulatory instruments such as price ceilings, copayments and reference prices and extend the analysis to competition in research.

Molecular mechanisms of insulin exocytosis role of small monomeric GTP-ASES

SUMMARYInsulin secretion from pancreatic beta-cells is a fundamental condition for the maintenance of blood glucose levels. During the last decades, important components of the molecular machinery controlling hormone release have been characterized. My PhD thesis was dedicated to the study of new signaling pathways regulating insulin exocytosis and in particular to the role of small monomelic guanine triphosphatase or GTPases controlling the last events of hormone release.The first part of my thesis focused on Ras-like (Ral) RalA and RalB proteins. We investigated the mechanisms leading to activation of Ral proteins in pancreatic beta-cells and analyzed their impact on different steps of the insulin-secretory process. Our results have shown that RalA is the predominant isoform expressed in pancreatic islets and insulin-secreting cell lines. Silencing of this GTPase in INS-IE cells by RNA interference led to a decrease in secretagogue-induced hormone release. The activation of the GTPase, followed by FRET imaging, is triggered by increases in intracellular Ca and cAMP. Defective insulin release in cells lacking RalA is associated with a decrease in the secretory granules docked at the plasma membrane, detected by TIRF microscopy and with strong impairment in PLD1 activation in response to secretagogues. RalA was found to be activated by the exchange factor RalGDS, which regulates hormone secretion induced by secretagogues and the docking step of insulin-containing granules at the plasma membrane. In the second part of this work we have shown that a member of the Rab family, Rab37, is present on insulin-containing secretory granules of pancreatic beta-cells. In addition, our experiments have suggested that Rab37 is required to obtain an optimal insulin secretory response induced by secretogogues and is important for the docking step of insulin-containing granules at the plasma membrane.

Amelioration of Duchenne muscular dystrophy in mdx mice by elimination of matrix-associated fibrin-driven inflammation coupled to the αMβ2 leukocyte integrin receptor

In Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), a persistently altered and reorganizing extracellular matrix (ECM) within inflamed muscle promotes damage and dysfunction. However, the molecular determinants of the ECM that mediate inflammatory changes and faulty tissue reorganization remain poorly defined. Here, we show that fibrin deposition is a conspicuous consequence of muscle-vascular damage in dystrophic muscles of DMD patients and mdx mice and that elimination of fibrin(ogen) attenuated dystrophy progression in mdx mice. These benefits appear to be tied to: (i) a decrease in leukocyte integrin α(M)β(2)-mediated proinflammatory programs, thereby attenuating counterproductive inflammation and muscle degeneration; and (ii) a release of satellite cells from persistent inhibitory signals, thereby promoting regeneration. Remarkably, Fib-gamma(390-396A) (Fibγ(390-396A)) mice expressing a mutant form of fibrinogen with normal clotting function, but lacking the α(M)β(2) binding motif, ameliorated dystrophic pathology. Delivery of a fibrinogen/α(M)β(2) blocking peptide was similarly beneficial. Conversely, intramuscular fibrinogen delivery sufficed to induce inflammation and degeneration in fibrinogen-null mice. Thus, local fibrin(ogen) deposition drives dystrophic muscle inflammation and dysfunction, and disruption of fibrin(ogen)-α(M)β(2) interactions may provide a novel strategy for DMD treatment.

Multicenter, Prospective Clinical Evaluation of Respiratory Samples from Subjects at Risk for Pneumocystis jirovecii Infection by Use of a Commercial Real-Time PCR Assay.

Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) is a common opportunistic infection. Microscopic diagnosis, including diagnosis using the Merifluor-Pneumocystis direct fluorescent antigen (MP-DFA) test, has limitations. Real-time PCR may assist in diagnosis, but no commercially validated real-time PCR assay has been available to date. MycAssay Pneumocystis is a commercial assay that targets the P. jirovecii mitochondrial large subunit (analytical detection limit, ≤3.5 copies/μl of sample). A multicenter trial recruited 110 subjects: 54 with transplants (40 with lung transplants), 32 with nonmalignant conditions, 13 with leukemia, and 11 with solid tumors; 9 were HIV positive. A total of 110 respiratory samples (92% of which were bronchoalveolar lavage [BAL] specimens) were analyzed by PCR. Performance was characterized relative to investigator-determined clinical diagnosis of PCP (including local diagnostic tests), and PCR results were compared with MP-DFA test results for 83 subjects. Thirteen of 14 subjects with PCP and 9/96 without PCP (including 5 undergoing BAL surveillance after lung transplantation) had positive PCR results; sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively) were 93%, 91%, 59%, and 99%, respectively. Fourteen of 83 subjects for whom PCR and MP-DFA test results were available had PCP; PCR sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 93%, 90%, 65%, and 98%, respectively, and MP-DFA test sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 93%, 100%, 100%, and 98%. Of the 9 PCR-positive subjects without PCP, 1 later developed PCP. The PCR diagnostic assay compares well with clinical diagnosis using nonmolecular methods. Additional positive results compared with the MP-DFA test may reflect low-level infection or colonization.

Localization and characterization of an active fault in an urbanized area in central Guatemala by means of geoelectrical imaging

The Polochic and Motagua faults define the active plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates in central Guatemala. A splay of the Polochic Fault traverses the rapidly growing city of San Miguel Uspantan that is periodically affected by destructive earthquakes. This fault splay was located using a 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) survey that also characterized the fault damage zone and evaluated the thickness and nature of recent deposits upon which most of the city is built. ERT images show the fault as a similar to 50 m wide, near-vertical low-resistivity anomaly, bounded within a few meters by high resistivity anomalies. Forward modeling reproduces the key aspects of the observed electrical resistivity data with remarkable fidelity thus defining the overall location, geometry, and internal structure of the fault zone as well as the affected lithologies. Our results indicate that the city is constructed on a similar to 20 m thick surficial layer consisting of poorly consolidated, highly porous, water-logged pumice. This soft layer is likely to amplify seismic waves and to liquefy upon moderate to strong ground shaking. The electrical conductivity as well as the major element chemistry of the groundwater provides evidence to suggest that the local aquifer might, at least in part, be fed by water rising along the fault. Therefore, the potential threat posed by this fault splay may not be limited to its seismic activity per se, but could be compounded its potential propensity to enhance seismic site effects by injecting water into the soft surficial sediments. The results of this study provide the basis for a rigorous analysis of seismic hazard and sustainable development of San Miguel Uspantan and illustrate the potential of ERT surveying for paleoseismic studies.

Detection of recurrence of large-bowel carcinoma by radioimmunoassay of circulating carcinoembryonic antigen (C.E.A.).

The usefulness and limitations of the carcinoembryonic antigen (C.E.A.) radioimmunoassay for the evaluation of tumour resection and for the detection of tumour relapse were studied in patients with large-bowel carcinoma. The level of plasma-C.E.A. was determined before any treatment in a group of 101 patients with histologically proven adenocarcinoma of the colon and rectum. 71% of all patients and 63% of cases with localised tumour (Dukes A and B) had a preoperative C.E.A. value of 5 ng. per ml. or higher. This limit was reached by only 1 of 90 apparently healthy, non-smoking blood-donors. Among 45 patients for whom a complete tumour resection was reported, all patients except 5 showed a drop of C.E.A. to normal values after surgery. The 5 patients whose C.E.A. did not fall to below 5 ng. per ml. showed a subsequent rise in C.E.A. level and were all found later to have a tumour relapse. The results indicate that an incomplete drop of circulating C.E.A. level one month after surgery has a bad prognostic significance. 22 of these patients were followed up by repeated C.E.A. radioimmunoassay for several months after surgery. 8 showed a progressive increase in C.E.A. levels preceding clinical diagnosis of tumour relapse by two to ten months. 6 other patients showed a moderate increase in C.E.A. levels, suggesting a tumour relapse not yet clinically detectable. The remaining 8 patients showed no increase in C.E.A. level above 5 ng. per ml. and no clinical symptoms of relapse. The results demonstrate that relapses of colon and rectum carcinoma can be detected by increased C.E.A. levels months before the appearance of any clinical evidence.

Effects of small surface tension in Hele-Shaw multifinger dynamics: an analytical and numerical study

We study the singular effects of vanishingly small surface tension on the dynamics of finger competition in the Saffman-Taylor problem, using the asymptotic techniques described by Tanveer [Philos. Trans. R. Soc. London, Ser. A 343, 155 (1993)] and Siegel and Tanveer [Phys. Rev. Lett. 76, 419 (1996)], as well as direct numerical computation, following the numerical scheme of Hou, Lowengrub, and Shelley [J. Comput. Phys. 114, 312 (1994)]. We demonstrate the dramatic effects of small surface tension on the late time evolution of two-finger configurations with respect to exact (nonsingular) zero-surface-tension solutions. The effect is present even when the relevant zero-surface-tension solution has asymptotic behavior consistent with selection theory. Such singular effects, therefore, cannot be traced back to steady state selection theory, and imply a drastic global change in the structure of phase-space flow. They can be interpreted in the framework of a recently introduced dynamical solvability scenario according to which surface tension unfolds the structurally unstable flow, restoring the hyperbolicity of multifinger fixed points.

Optical-model potential for electron and positron elastic scattering by atoms

An optical-model potential for systematic calculations of elastic scattering of electrons and positrons by atoms and positive ions is proposed. The electrostatic interaction is determined from the Dirac-Hartree-Fock self-consistent atomic electron density. In the case of electron projectiles, the exchange interaction is described by means of the local-approximation of Furness and McCarthy. The correlation-polarization potential is obtained by combining the correlation potential derived from the local density approximation with a long-range polarization interaction, which is represented by means of a Buckingham potential with an empirical energy-dependent cutoff parameter. The absorption potential is obtained from the local-density approximation, using the Born-Ochkur approximation and the Lindhard dielectric function to describe the binary collisions with a free-electron gas. The strength of the absorption potential is adjusted by means of an empirical parameter, which has been determined by fitting available absolute elastic differential cross-section data for noble gases and mercury. The Dirac partial-wave analysis with this optical-model potential provides a realistic description of elastic scattering of electrons and positrons with energies in the range from ~100 eV up to ~5 keV. At higher energies, correlation-polarization and absorption corrections are small and the usual static-exchange approximation is sufficiently accurate for most practical purposes.

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities and soil aggregation as affected by cultivation of various crops during the sugarcane fallow period

Management systems involving crop rotation, ground cover species and reduced soil tillage can improve the soil physical and biological properties and reduce degradation. The primary purpose of this study was to assess the effect of various crops grown during the sugarcane fallow period on the production of glomalin and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi in two Latosols, as well as their influence on soil aggregation. The experiment was conducted on an eutroferric Red Latosol with high-clay texture (680 g clay kg-1) and an acric Red Latosol with clayey texture (440 g kg-1 clay) in Jaboticabal (São Paulo State, Brazil). A randomized block design involving five blocks and four crops [soybean (S), soybean/fallow/soybean (SFS), soybean/millet/soybean (SMS) and soybean/sunn hemp/soybean (SHS)] was used to this end. Soil samples for analysis were collected in June 2011. No significant differences in total glomalin production were detected between the soils after the different crops. However, total external mycelium length was greater in the soils under SMS and SHS. Also, there were differences in easily extractable glomalin, total glomalin and aggregate stability, which were all greater in the eutroferric Red Latosol than in the acric Red Latosol. None of the cover crops planted in the fallow period of sugarcane improved aggregate stability in either Latosol.

The Nonequilibrium thermodynamics of small systems

The interactions of tiny objects with their environments are dominated by thermal fluctuations. Guided by theory and assisted by new micromanipulation tools, scientists have begun to study such interactions in detail.

Normalization factors for magnetic relaxation of small particle systems in non-zero magnetic field.

We critically discuss relaxation experiments in magnetic systems that can be characterized in terms of an energy barrier distribution, showing that proper normalization of the relaxation data is needed whenever curves corresponding to different temperatures are to be compared. We show how these normalization factors can be obtained from experimental data by using the Tln (t/t0) scaling method without making any assumptions about the nature of the energy barrier distribution. The validity of the procedure is tested using a ferrofluid of Fe3O4 particles.

Measurement of biologically available naphthalene in gas and aqueous phases by use of a Pseudomonas putida biosensor.

Genetically constructed microbial biosensors for measuring organic pollutants are mostly applied in aqueous samples. Unfortunately, the detection limit of most biosensors is insufficient to detect pollutants at low but environmentally relevant concentrations. However, organic pollutants with low levels of water solubility often have significant gas-water partitioning coefficients, which in principle makes it possible to measure such compounds in the gas rather than the aqueous phase. Here we describe the first use of a microbial biosensor for measuring organic pollutants directly in the gas phase. For this purpose, we reconstructed a bioluminescent Pseudomonas putida naphthalene biosensor strain to carry the NAH7 plasmid and a chromosomally inserted gene fusion between the sal promoter and the luxAB genes. Specific calibration studies were performed with suspended and filter-immobilized biosensor cells, in aqueous solution and in the gas phase. Gas phase measurements with filter-immobilized biosensor cells in closed flasks, with a naphthalene-contaminated aqueous phase, showed that the biosensor cells can measure naphthalene effectively. The biosensor cells on the filter responded with increasing light output proportional to the naphthalene concentration added to the water phase, even though only a small proportion of the naphthalene was present in the gas phase. In fact, the biosensor cells could concentrate a larger proportion of naphthalene through the gas phase than in the aqueous suspension, probably due to faster transport of naphthalene to the cells in the gas phase. This led to a 10-fold lower detectable aqueous naphthalene concentration (50 nM instead of 0.5 micro M). Thus, the use of bacterial biosensors for measuring organic pollutants in the gas phase is a valid method for increasing the sensitivity of these valuable biological devices.