Combined static and dynamic assertion-based debugging of constraint logic programs

We propose a general framework for assertion-based debugging of constraint logic programs. Assertions are linguistic constructions for expressing properties of programs. We define several assertion schemas for writing (partial) specifications for constraint logic programs using quite general properties, including user-defined programs. The framework is aimed at detecting deviations of the program behavior (symptoms) with respect to the given assertions, either at compile-time (i.e., statically) or run-time (i.e., dynamically). We provide techniques for using information from global analysis both to detect at compile-time assertions which do not hold in at least one of the possible executions (i.e., static symptoms) and assertions which hold for all possible executions (i.e., statically proved assertions). We also provide program transformations which introduce tests in the program for checking at run-time those assertions whose status cannot be determined at compile-time. Both the static and the dynamic checking are provably safe in the sense that all errors flagged are definite violations of the pecifications. Finally, we report briefly on the currently implemented instances of the generic framework.

A framework for assertion-based debugging in constraint logic programming

We propose a general framework for assertion-based debugging of constraint logic programs. Assertions are linguistic constructions which allow expressing properties of programs. We define assertion schemas which allow writing (partial) specifications for constraint logic programs using quite general properties, including user-defined programs. The framework is aimed at detecting deviations of the program behavior (symptoms) with respect to the given assertions, either at compile-time or run-time. We provide techniques for using information from global analysis both to detect at compile-time assertions which do not hold in at least one of the possible executions (i.e., static symptoms) and assertions which hold for all possible executions (i.e., statically proved assertions). We also provide program transformations which introduce tests in the program for checking at run-time those assertions whose status cannot be determined at compile-time. Both the static and the dynamic checking are provably safe in the sense that all errors flagged are definite violations of the specifications. Finally, we report on an implemented instance of the assertion language and framework.

Towards a concurrent semantics-based analysis of CC and CLP. principles and practice of constraint programming

Abstract is not available.

Automatic parallelization of irregular and pointer-based computations: perspectives from logic and constraint programming

Irregular computations pose some of the most interesting and challenging problems in automatic parallelization. Irregularity appears in certain kinds of numerical problems and is pervasive in symbolic applications. Such computations often use dynamic data structures which make heavy use of pointers. This complicates all the steps of a parallelizing compiler, from independence detection to task partitioning and placement. In the past decade there has been significant progress in the development of parallelizing compilers for logic programming and, more recently, constraint programming. The typical applications of these paradigms frequently involve irregular computations, which arguably makes the techniques used in these compilers potentially interesting. In this paper we introduce in a tutorial way some of the problems faced by parallelizing compilers for logic and constraint programs. These include the need for inter-procedural pointer aliasing analysis for independence detection and having to manage speculative and irregular computations through task granularity control and dynamic task allocation. We also provide pointers to some of the progress made in these áreas. In the associated talk we demónstrate representatives of several generations of these parallelizing compilers.

Contribution to the design of waveguide-fed compound-slot arrays by means of equivalent circuit modelling

Los arrays de ranuras son sistemas de antennas conocidos desde los años 40, principalmente destinados a formar parte de sistemas rádar de navíos de combate y grandes estaciones terrenas donde el tamaño y el peso no eran altamente restrictivos. Con el paso de los años y debido sobre todo a importantes avances en materiales y métodos de fabricación, el rango de aplicaciones de este tipo de sistemas radiantes creció en gran medida. Desde nuevas tecnologías biomédicas, sistemas anticolisión en automóviles y navegación en aviones, enlaces de comunicaciones de alta tasa binaria y corta distancia e incluso sistemas embarcados en satélites para la transmisión de señal de televisión. Dentro de esta familia de antennas, existen dos grupos que destacan por ser los más utilizados: las antennas de placas paralelas con las ranuras distribuidas de forma circular o espiral y las agrupaciones de arrays lineales construidos sobre guia de onda. Continuando con las tareas de investigación desarrolladas durante los últimos años en el Instituto de Tecnología de Tokyo y en el Grupo de Radiación de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, la totalidad de esta tesis se centra en este último grupo, aunque como se verá se separa en gran medida de las técnicas de diseño y metodologías convencionales. Los arrays de ranuras rectas y paralelas al eje de la guía rectangular que las alimenta son, sin ninguna duda, los modelos más empleados debido a la fiabilidad que presentan a altas frecuencias, su capacidad para gestionar grandes cantidades de potencia y la sencillez de su diseño y fabricación. Sin embargo, también presentan desventajas como estrecho ancho de banda en pérdidas de retorno y rápida degradación del diagrama de radiación con la frecuencia. Éstas son debidas a la naturaleza resonante de sus elementos radiantes: al perder la resonancia, el sistema global se desajusta y sus prestaciones degeneran. En arrays bidimensionales de slots rectos, el campo eléctrico queda polarizado sobre el plano transversal a las ranuras, correspondiéndose con el plano de altos lóbulos secundarios. Esta tesis tiene como objetivo el desarrollo de un método sistemático de diseño de arrays de ranuras inclinadas y desplazadas del centro (en lo sucesivo “ranuras compuestas”), definido en 1971 como uno de los desafíos a superar dentro del mundo del diseño de antennas. La técnica empleada se basa en el Método de los Momentos, la Teoría de Circuitos y la Teoría de Conexión Aleatoria de Matrices de Dispersión. Al tratarse de un método circuital, la primera parte de la tesis se corresponde con el estudio de la aplicabilidad de las redes equivalentes fundamentales, su capacidad para recrear fenómenos físicos de la ranura, las limitaciones y ventajas que presentan para caracterizar las diferentes configuraciones de slot compuesto. Se profundiza en las diferencias entre las redes en T y en ! y se condiciona la selección de una u otra dependiendo del tipo de elemento radiante. Una vez seleccionado el tipo de red a emplear en el diseño del sistema, se ha desarrollado un algoritmo de cascadeo progresivo desde el puerto alimentador hacia el cortocircuito que termina el modelo. Este algoritmo es independiente del número de elementos, la frecuencia central de funcionamiento, del ángulo de inclinación de las ranuras y de la red equivalente seleccionada (en T o en !). Se basa en definir el diseño del array como un Problema de Satisfacción de Condiciones (en inglés, Constraint Satisfaction Problem) que se resuelve por un método de Búsqueda en Retroceso (Backtracking algorithm). Como resultado devuelve un circuito equivalente del array completo adaptado a su entrada y cuyos elementos consumen una potencia acorde a una distribución de amplitud dada para el array. En toda agrupación de antennas, el acoplo mutuo entre elementos a través del campo radiado representa uno de los principales problemas para el ingeniero y sus efectos perjudican a las prestaciones globales del sistema, tanto en adaptación como en capacidad de radiación. El empleo de circuito equivalente se descartó por la dificultad que suponía la caracterización de estos efectos y su inclusión en la etapa de diseño. En esta tesis doctoral el acoplo también se ha modelado como una red equivalente cuyos elementos son transformadores ideales y admitancias, conectada al conjunto de redes equivalentes que representa el array. Al comparar los resultados estimados en términos de pérdidas de retorno y radiación con aquellos obtenidos a partir de programas comerciales populares como CST Microwave Studio se confirma la validez del método aquí propuesto, el primer método de diseño sistemático de arrays de ranuras compuestos alimentados por guía de onda rectangular. Al tratarse de ranuras no resonantes, el ancho de banda en pérdidas de retorno es mucho mas amplio que el que presentan arrays de slots rectos. Para arrays bidimensionales, el ángulo de inclinación puede ajustarse de manera que el campo quede polarizado en los planos de bajos lóbulos secundarios. Además de simulaciones se han diseñado, construido y medido dos prototipos centrados en la frecuencia de 12GHz, de seis y diez elementos. Las medidas de pérdidas de retorno y diagrama de radiación revelan excelentes resultados, certificando la bondad del método genuino Method of Moments - Forward Matching Procedure desarrollado a lo largo de esta tésis. Abstract The slot antenna arrays are well known systems from the decade of 40s, mainly intended to be part of radar systems of large warships and terrestrial stations where size and weight were not highly restrictive. Over the years, mainly due to significant advances in materials and manufacturing methods, the range of applications of this type of radiating systems grew significantly. From new biomedical technologies, collision avoidance systems in cars and aircraft navigation, short communication links with high bit transfer rate and even embedded systems in satellites for television broadcast. Within this family of antennas, two groups stand out as being the most frequent in the literature: parallel plate antennas with slots placed in a circular or spiral distribution and clusters of waveguide linear arrays. To continue the vast research work carried out during the last decades in the Tokyo Institute of Technology and in the Radiation Group at the Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, this thesis focuses on the latter group, although it represents a technique that drastically breaks with traditional design methodologies. The arrays of slots straight and parallel to the axis of the feeding rectangular waveguide are without a doubt the most used models because of the reliability that they present at high frequencies, its ability to handle large amounts of power and their simplicity of design and manufacturing. However, there also exist disadvantages as narrow bandwidth in return loss and rapid degradation of the radiation pattern with frequency. These are due to the resonant nature of radiating elements: away from the resonance status, the overall system performance and radiation pattern diminish. For two-dimensional arrays of straight slots, the electric field is polarized transverse to the radiators, corresponding to the plane of high side-lobe level. This thesis aims to develop a systematic method of designing arrays of angled and displaced slots (hereinafter "compound slots"), defined in 1971 as one of the challenges to overcome in the world of antenna design. The used technique is based on the Method of Moments, Circuit Theory and the Theory of Scattering Matrices Connection. Being a circuitry-based method, the first part of this dissertation corresponds to the study of the applicability of the basic equivalent networks, their ability to recreate the slot physical phenomena, their limitations and advantages presented to characterize different compound slot configurations. It delves into the differences of T and ! and determines the selection of the most suitable one depending on the type of radiating element. Once the type of network to be used in the system design is selected, a progressive algorithm called Forward Matching Procedure has been developed to connect the proper equivalent networks from the feeder port to shorted ending. This algorithm is independent of the number of elements, the central operating frequency, the angle of inclination of the slots and selected equivalent network (T or ! networks). It is based on the definition of the array design as a Constraint Satisfaction Problem, solved by means of a Backtracking Algorithm. As a result, the method returns an equivalent circuit of the whole array which is matched at its input port and whose elements consume a power according to a given amplitude distribution for the array. In any group of antennas, the mutual coupling between elements through the radiated field represents one of the biggest problems that the engineer faces and its effects are detrimental to the overall performance of the system, both in radiation capabilities and return loss. The employment of an equivalent circuit for the array design was discarded by some authors because of the difficulty involved in the characterization of the coupling effects and their inclusion in the design stage. In this thesis the coupling has also been modeled as an equivalent network whose elements are ideal transformers and admittances connected to the set of equivalent networks that represent the antennas of the array. By comparing the estimated results in terms of return loss and radiation with those obtained from popular commercial software as CST Microwave Studio, the validity of the proposed method is fully confirmed, representing the first method of systematic design of compound-slot arrays fed by rectangular waveguide. Since these slots do not work under the resonant status, the bandwidth in return loss is much wider than the longitudinal-slot arrays. For the case of two-dimensional arrays, the angle of inclination can be adjusted so that the field is polarized at the low side-lobe level plane. Besides the performed full-wave simulations two prototypes of six and ten elements for the X-band have been designed, built and measured, revealing excellent results and agreement with the expected results. These facts certify that the genuine technique Method of Moments - Matching Forward Procedure developed along this thesis is valid and trustable.

Numerical CFD modelling of non-neutral atmospheric boundary layers for offshore wind resource assessment based on Monin-Obukhov theory

The presented works aim at proposing a methodology for the simulation of offshore wind conditions using CFD. The main objective is the development of a numerical model for the characterization of atmospheric boundary layers of different stability levels, as the most important issue in offshore wind resource assessment. Based on Monin-Obukhov theory, the steady k-ε Standard turbulence model is modified to take into account thermal stratification in the surface layer. The validity of Monin-Obukhov theory in offshore conditions is discussed with an analysis of a three day episode at FINO-1 platform.

CFD modelling of wind farms in complex terrain

Modelling of entire wind farms in flat and complex terrain using a full 3D Navier–Stokes solver for incompressible flow is presented in this paper. Numerical integration of the governing equations is performed using an implicit pressure correction scheme, where the wind turbines (W/Ts) are modelled as momentum absorbers through their thrust coefficient. The k–ω turbulence model, suitably modified for atmospheric flows, is employed for closure. A correction is introduced to account for the underestimation of the near wake deficit, in which the turbulence time scale is bounded using a general “realizability” constraint for the fluctuating velocities. The second modelling issue that is discussed in this paper is related to the determination of the reference wind speed for the thrust calculation of the machines. Dealing with large wind farms and wind farms in complex terrain, determining the reference wind speed is not obvious when a W/T operates in the wake of another WT and/or in complex terrain. Two alternatives are compared: using the wind speed value at hub height one diameter upstream of the W/T and adopting an induction factor-based concept to overcome the utilization of a wind speed at a certain distance upwind of the rotor. Application is made in two wind farms, a five-machine one located in flat terrain and a 43-machine one located in complex terrain.

Using Knowledge Modelling Tools for Agent-Based Systems: The Experience of KSM

The aim of this chapter is to discuss the applicability of recently proposed knowledge modelling tools to the development of agent-based systems. The discussion is derived from the real world experience of a particular software tool called KSM (Knowledge Structure Manager). The chapter provides details about this tool and then proceeds to show in which forms the software may be used to support the development of agent-based systems. Two multiagent systems, one in the field of telecommunications management and the other one in the field of flood control, are described. Conclusions about these studies are presented, summarizing the main contributions that knowledge modelling tools can bring to the development of agent-based systems.

Energy-based Fair Queuing: Energy-centric Processor Scheduling Algorithm for Battery-limited Mobile Systems

Los dispositivos móviles modernos disponen cada vez de más funcionalidad debido al rápido avance de las tecnologías de las comunicaciones y computaciones móviles. Sin embargo, la capacidad de la batería no ha experimentado un aumento equivalente. Por ello, la experiencia de usuario en los sistemas móviles modernos se ve muy afectada por la vida de la batería, que es un factor inestable de difícil de control. Para abordar este problema, investigaciones anteriores han propuesto un esquema de gestion del consumo (PM) centrada en la energía y que proporciona una garantía sobre la vida operativa de la batería mediante la gestión de la energía como un recurso de primera clase en el sistema. Como el planificador juega un papel fundamental en la administración del consumo de energía y en la garantía del rendimiento de las aplicaciones, esta tesis explora la optimización de la experiencia de usuario para sistemas móviles con energía limitada desde la perspectiva de un planificador que tiene en cuenta el consumo de energía en un contexto en el que ésta es un recurso de primera clase. En esta tesis se analiza en primer lugar los factores que contribuyen de forma general a la experiencia de usuario en un sistema móvil. Después se determinan los requisitos esenciales que afectan a la experiencia de usuario en la planificación centrada en el consumo de energía, que son el reparto proporcional de la potencia, el cumplimiento de las restricciones temporales, y cuando sea necesario, el compromiso entre la cuota de potencia y las restricciones temporales. Para cumplir con los requisitos, el algoritmo clásico de fair queueing y su modelo de referencia se extienden desde los dominios de las comunicaciones y ancho de banda de CPU hacia el dominio de la energía, y en base a ésto, se propone el algoritmo energy-based fair queueing (EFQ) para proporcionar una planificación basada en la energía. El algoritmo EFQ está diseñado para compartir la potencia consumida entre las tareas mediante su planificación en función de la energía consumida y de la cuota reservada. La cuota de consumo de cada tarea con restricciones temporales está protegida frente a diversos cambios que puedan ocurrir en el sistema. Además, para dar mejor soporte a las tareas en tiempo real y multimedia, se propone un mecanismo para combinar con el algoritmo EFQ para dar preferencia en la planificación durante breves intervalos de tiempo a las tareas más urgentes con restricciones temporales.Las propiedades del algoritmo EFQ se evaluan a través del modelado de alto nivel y la simulación. Los resultados de las simulaciones indican que los requisitos esenciales de la planificación centrada en la energía pueden lograrse. El algoritmo EFQ se implementa más tarde en el kernel de Linux. Para evaluar las propiedades del planificador EFQ basado en Linux, se desarrolló un banco de pruebas experimental basado en una sitema empotrado, un programa de banco de pruebas multihilo, y un conjunto de pruebas de código abierto. A través de experimentos específicamente diseñados, esta tesis verifica primero las propiedades de EFQ en la gestión de la cuota de consumo de potencia y la planificación en tiempo real y, a continuación, explora los beneficios potenciales de emplear la planificación EFQ en la optimización de la experiencia de usuario para sistemas móviles con energía limitada. Los resultados experimentales sobre la gestión de la cuota de energía muestran que EFQ es más eficaz que el planificador de Linux-CFS en la gestión de energía, logrando un reparto proporcional de la energía del sistema independientemente de en qué dispositivo se consume la energía. Los resultados experimentales en la planificación en tiempo real demuestran que EFQ puede lograr de forma eficaz, flexible y robusta el cumplimiento de las restricciones temporales aunque se dé el caso de aumento del el número de tareas o del error en la estimación de energía. Por último, un análisis comparativo de los resultados experimentales sobre la optimización de la experiencia del usuario demuestra que, primero, EFQ es más eficaz y flexible que los algoritmos tradicionales de planificación del procesador, como el que se encuentra por defecto en el planificador de Linux y, segundo, que proporciona la posibilidad de optimizar y preservar la experiencia de usuario para los sistemas móviles con energía limitada. Abstract Modern mobiledevices have been becoming increasingly powerful in functionality and entertainment as the next-generation mobile computing and communication technologies are rapidly advanced. However, the battery capacity has not experienced anequivalent increase. The user experience of modern mobile systems is therefore greatly affected by the battery lifetime,which is an unstable factor that is hard to control. To address this problem, previous works proposed energy-centric power management (PM) schemes to provide strong guarantee on the battery lifetime by globally managing energy as the first-class resource in the system. As the processor scheduler plays a pivotal role in power management and application performance guarantee, this thesis explores the user experience optimization of energy-limited mobile systemsfrom the perspective of energy-centric processor scheduling in an energy-centric context. This thesis first analyzes the general contributing factors of the mobile system user experience.Then itdetermines the essential requirements on the energy-centric processor scheduling for user experience optimization, which are proportional power sharing, time-constraint compliance, and when necessary, a tradeoff between the power share and the time-constraint compliance. To meet the requirements, the classical fair queuing algorithm and its reference model are extended from the network and CPU bandwidth sharing domain to the energy sharing domain, and based on that, the energy-based fair queuing (EFQ) algorithm is proposed for performing energy-centric processor scheduling. The EFQ algorithm is designed to provide proportional power shares to tasks by scheduling the tasks based on their energy consumption and weights. The power share of each time-sensitive task is protected upon the change of the scheduling environment to guarantee a stable performance, and any instantaneous power share that is overly allocated to one time-sensitive task can be fairly re-allocated to the other tasks. In addition, to better support real-time and multimedia scheduling, certain real-time friendly mechanism is combined into the EFQ algorithm to give time-limited scheduling preference to the time-sensitive tasks. Through high-level modelling and simulation, the properties of the EFQ algorithm are evaluated. The simulation results indicate that the essential requirements of energy-centric processor scheduling can be achieved. The EFQ algorithm is later implemented in the Linux kernel. To assess the properties of the Linux-based EFQ scheduler, an experimental test-bench based on an embedded platform, a multithreading test-bench program, and an open-source benchmark suite is developed. Through specifically-designed experiments, this thesis first verifies the properties of EFQ in power share management and real-time scheduling, and then, explores the potential benefits of employing EFQ scheduling in the user experience optimization for energy-limited mobile systems. Experimental results on power share management show that EFQ is more effective than the Linux-CFS scheduler in managing power shares and it can achieve a proportional sharing of the system power regardless of on which device the energy is spent. Experimental results on real-time scheduling demonstrate that EFQ can achieve effective, flexible and robust time-constraint compliance upon the increase of energy estimation error and task number. Finally, a comparative analysis of the experimental results on user experience optimization demonstrates that EFQ is more effective and flexible than traditional processor scheduling algorithms, such as those of the default Linux scheduler, in optimizing and preserving the user experience of energy-limited mobile systems.

Three-dimensional inverse modelling of magnetic anomaly sources based on a genetic algorithm.

We present a modelling method to estimate the 3-D geometry and location of homogeneously magnetized sources from magnetic anomaly data. As input information, the procedure needs the parameters defining the magnetization vector (intensity, inclination and declination) and the Earth's magnetic field direction. When these two vectors are expected to be different in direction, we propose to estimate the magnetization direction from the magnetic map. Then, using this information, we apply an inversion approach based on a genetic algorithm which finds the geometry of the sources by seeking the optimum solution from an initial population of models in successive iterations through an evolutionary process. The evolution consists of three genetic operators (selection, crossover and mutation), which act on each generation, and a smoothing operator, which looks for the best fit to the observed data and a solution consisting of plausible compact sources. The method allows the use of non-gridded, non-planar and inaccurate anomaly data and non-regular subsurface partitions. In addition, neither constraints for the depth to the top of the sources nor an initial model are necessary, although previous models can be incorporated into the process. We show the results of a test using two complex synthetic anomalies to demonstrate the efficiency of our inversion method. The application to real data is illustrated with aeromagnetic data of the volcanic island of Gran Canaria (Canary Islands).

Three-dimensional planar model estimation using multi-constraint knowledge based on k-means and RANSAC

Plane model extraction from three-dimensional point clouds is a necessary step in many different applications such as planar object reconstruction, indoor mapping and indoor localization. Different RANdom SAmple Consensus (RANSAC)-based methods have been proposed for this purpose in recent years. In this study, we propose a novel method-based on RANSAC called Multiplane Model Estimation, which can estimate multiple plane models simultaneously from a noisy point cloud using the knowledge extracted from a scene (or an object) in order to reconstruct it accurately. This method comprises two steps: first, it clusters the data into planar faces that preserve some constraints defined by knowledge related to the object (e.g., the angles between faces); and second, the models of the planes are estimated based on these data using a novel multi-constraint RANSAC. We performed experiments in the clustering and RANSAC stages, which showed that the proposed method performed better than state-of-the-art methods.

Forest-based supply chain modelling using the SimPy simulation framework

Proper management of supply chains is fundamental in the overall system performance of forestbased activities. Usually, efficient management techniques rely on a decision support software, which needs to be able to generate fast and effective outputs from the set of possibilities. In order to do this, it is necessary to provide accurate models representative of the dynamic interactions of systems. Due to forest-based supply chains’ nature, event-based models are more suited to describe their behaviours. This work proposes the modelling and simulation of a forestbased supply chain, in particular the biomass supply chain, through the SimPy framework. This Python based tool allows the modelling of discrete-event systems using operations such as events, processes and resources. The developed model was used to access the impact of changes in the daily working plan in three situations. First, as a control case, the deterministic behaviour was simulated. As a second approach, a machine delay was introduced and its implications in the plan accomplishment were analysed. Finally, to better address real operating conditions, stochastic behaviours of processing and driving times were simulated. The obtained results validate the SimPy simulation environment as a framework for modelling supply chains in general and for the biomass problem in particular.

Modelling the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni: a cohort-based approach incorporating the effects of weather

Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni (QFF) is arguably the most costly horticultural insect pest in Australia. Despite this, no model is available to describe its population dynamics and aid in its management. This paper describes a cohort-based model of the population dynamics of the Queensland fruit fly. The model is primarily driven by weather variables, and so can be used at any location where appropriate meteorological data are available. In the model, the life cycle is divided into a number of discreet stages to allow physiological processes to be defined as accurately as possible. Eggs develop and hatch into larvae, which develop into pupae, which emerge as either teneral females or males. Both females and males can enter reproductive and over-wintering life stages, and there is a trapped male life stage to allow model predictions to be compared with trap catch data. All development rates are temperature-dependent. Daily mortality rates are temperature-dependent, but may also be influenced by moisture, density of larvae in fruit, fruit suitability, and age. Eggs, larvae and pupae all have constant establishment mortalities, causing a defined proportion of individuals to die upon entering that life stage. Transfer from one immature stage to the next is based on physiological age. In the adult life stages, transfer between stages may require additional and/or alternative functions. Maximum fecundity is 1400 eggs per female per day, and maximum daily oviposition rate is 80 eggs/female per day. The actual number of eggs laid by a female on any given day is restricted by temperature, density of larva in fruit, suitability of fruit for oviposition, and female activity. Activity of reproductive females and males, which affects reproduction and trapping, decreases with rainfall. Trapping of reproductive males is determined by activity, temperature and the proportion of males in the active population. Limitations of the model are discussed. Despite these, the model provides a useful agreement with trap catch data, and allows key areas for future research to be identified. These critical gaps in the current state of knowledge exist despite over 50 years of research on this key pest. By explicitly attempting to model the population dynamics of this pest we have clearly identified the research areas that must be addressed before progress can be made in developing the model into an operational tool for the management of Queensland fruit fly. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Modelling the population cost-effectiveness of current and evidence-based optimal treatment for anxiety disorders

Background. The present paper describes a component of a large Population cost-effectiveness study that aimed to identify the averted burden and economic efficiency of current and optimal treatment for the major mental disorders. This paper reports on the findings for the anxiety disorders (panic disorder/agoraphobia, social phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorder). Method. Outcome was calculated as averted 'years lived with disability' (YLD), a population summary measure of disability burden. Costs were the direct health care costs in 1997-8 Australian dollars. The cost per YLD averted (efficiency) was calculated for those already in contact with the health system for a mental health problem (current care) and for a hypothetical optimal care package of evidence-based treatment for this same group. Data sources included the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-being and published treatment effects and unit costs. Results. Current coverage was around 40% for most disorders with the exception of social phobia at 21%. Receipt of interventions consistent with evidence-based care ranged from 32% of those in contact with services for social phobia to 64% for post-traumatic stress disorder. The cost of this care was estimated at $400 million, resulting in a cost per YLD averted ranging from $7761 for generalized anxiety disorder to $34 389 for panic/agoraphobia. Under optimal care, costs remained similar but health gains were increased substantially, reducing the cost per YLD to < $20 000 for all disorders. Conclusions. Evidence-based care for anxiety disorders would produce greater population health gain at a similar cost to that of current care, resulting in a substantial increase in the cost-effectiveness of treatment.