866 resultados para Conference title: Risk-informed Disaster Management : Planning for Response, Recovery
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Se evala con indicadores de gobernanza urbana la sostenibilidad de las formas de hacer ciudad hibrida compleja del gobierno de la gestin visible (GGV). Argumenta que el GGV hace ciudad para legitimarse por desempeo y fortalecer la gobernanza local, en un contexto de mutaciones mltiples y radicales que tienden a diluir y centralizar el poder local y fractalizar la ciudad, profundizando la segregacin sociopoltica-territorial y la ingobernabilidad gentica de la ciudad hibrida, poniendo en riesgo el Estado federal descentralizado, el derecho a la ciudad, al gobierno local y la gobernanza urbana y multinivel (hiptesis). La estrategia de evaluacin de gobernanza innovadora (EEG+i) diseada para evaluar la relacin entre las formas de hacer ciudad hibrida (variables espaciales) y gobernanza (variable a-espacial) es transversal, multidimensional y se construye desde la complejidad, el anlisis de escenarios, formulacin de constructos, modelos e indicadores de gobernanza, entretejiendo tres campos de conocimiento, gobierno, ciudad y sostenibilidad, en cuatro fases. La Fase 1, contextualiza la gobernanza en la dramtica del siglo XXI. La Fase 2, desarrolla la fundamentacin terico-prctica, nuevos conceptos y un abordaje analtico propio gentica territorial, para analizar y comprehender la complejidad de la ciudad hibrida de pases en desarrollo, tejiendo ontogentica territorial y el carcter autopoitico del gen informal. En la Fase 3, se caracterizan las formas de hacer ciudad desde la gentica del territorio, se formulan modelos e indicadores de gobernanza con los que se evalan, aplicando un delphi y cuestionarios, los genes tipolgicos-formas de hacer ciudad y validan las conclusiones. En la Fase 4, se correlacionan los resultados de los instrumentos aplicados con la praxis urbana del GGV, durante cuatro periodos de gobierno (1996-2010). Concluyendo que, la estrategia de evaluacin comprob las hiptesis y demostr la correlacin transversal y multinivel existente entre, las mutaciones en curso que contradicen el modelo de gobernanza constitucional, el paisaje de gobernanza latinoamericano y venezolano, la praxis de los regmenes hbridos ricos en recursos naturales, las perspectivas de desarrollo globales y se expresa sociopolticamente en dficit de gobernanza, Estado de derecho y cohesin-capital social y, espaciolocalmente, en la ciudad hibrida dispersa y diluida (compleja) y en el gobierno del poder diluido centralizado. La confrontacin de flujos de poder centrpetos y centrfugos en la ciudad profundiza la fragmentacin socioespacial y poltica y el deterioro de la calidad de vida, incrementando las protestas ciudadanas e ingobernabilidad que obstaculiza la superacin de la pobreza y gobernanza urbana y multinivel. La evaluacin de la praxis urbana del GGV evidenci que la correlacin entre gobernanza, la produccin de genes formales y la ciudad por iniciativa privada tiende a ser positiva y entre gobernanza, genes y produccin de ciudad informal negativa, por el carcter autopoitico-autogobernable del gen informal y de los nuevos gobiernos sublocales que dificulta gobernar en gobernanza. La praxis del GGV es contraria al modelo de gobernanza formulado y la disolucin centralizada del gobierno local y de la ciudad hibrida-dispersa es socio-espacial y polticamente insostenible. Se proponen estrategias y tcticas de gobernanza multinivel para recuperar la cohesin social y de planificacin de la gestin innovadora (EG [PG] +i) para orquestar, desde el Consejo Local de Gobernanza (CLG) y con la participacin de los espacios y gobiernos sublocales, un proyecto de ciudad compartido y sostenible. ABSTRACT The sustainability of the forms of making the hybrid-complex city by the visible management government (VMG) is evaluated using urban governance indicators. Argues that the VMG builds city to legitimate itself by performance and to strengthen local governance in a context of multiple and radical mutations that tend to dilute and centralize local power and fractalize the city, deepening the socio-spatial and political segregation, the genetic ingovernability of the hybrid city and placing the decentralized federal State, the right to city, local government and urban governance at risk (hypothesis). The innovative governance evaluation strategy (GES+i) designed to assess the relationship between the forms of making the hybrid city (spatial variables) and governance (a-spatial variable) is transversal, multidimensional; is constructed from complexity, scenario analysis, the formulation of concepts, models and governance indicators, weaving three fields of knowledge, government, city and sustainability in four phases. Phase 1, contextualizes governance in the dramatic of the twenty-first century. Phase 2, develops the theoretical and practical foundations, new concepts and a proper analytical approach to comprehend the complexity of the hybrid city from developing countries, weaving territorial ontogenetic with the autopiethic character of the informal city gen. In Phase 3, the ways of making city are characterized from the genetics of territory; governance indicators and models are formulated to evaluate, using delphi and questionnaires, the ways of making city and validate the conclusions. In Phase 4, the results of the instruments applied are correlated with the urban praxis of the VMG during the four periods of government analyzed (1996-2010). Concluding that, the evaluation strategy proved the hypothesis and showed the transversal and multilevel correlation between, mutations that contradict the constitutional governance model, the governance landscape of Latinamerica and the country, the praxis of the hybrid regimes rich in natural resources, the perspectives of the glocal economy and expresses socio-politically the governance and rule of law and social capital-cohesion deficit and spatial-temporarily the hybrid disperse and diluted city (complex) and the diluted-centralized local government. The confrontation of flows of power centripetal and centrifugal in the city deepens the socio-spatial and political fragmentation and deterioration of the quality of life, increasing citizens' protests and ingovernability which hinders poverty eradication and, multilevel and urban governance. The evaluation of the VMG urban praxis showed the correlation between governance, the production of formal genes and city by private initiative tended to be positive and, between informal genes-city production and governance negative, due to its autopiethic-self governable character that hinders governance. The urban praxis of the VMG contradicts the formulated governance model and thecentralized dissolution of the local government and hybrid city are socio-spatial and politically unsustainable. Multiscale governance strategies are proposed to recreate social cohesion and a management planning innovative method (EG [PG] + i) to orchestrate, from the Local Governance Council (LGC) and with the participation of sublocal governments and spaces, a shared and sustainable city project.
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This document presents an innovative, formal educational initiative that is aimed at enhancing the development of engineering students specific competences when studying Project Management (PM) subject. The framework of the experience combines (1) theoretical concepts, (2) the development of a real-case project carried out by multidisciplinary groups of three different universities, (3) the use of software web 2.0 tools and (4) group and individual assignments of students that play different roles (project managers and team members). Under this scenario, the study focuses on monitoring the communication competence in the ever growing PM virtual environment. Factors such as corporal language, technical means, stage, and PM specific vocabulary among others have been considered in order to assess the students performance on this issue. As a main contribution, the paper introduces an ad-hoc rubric that, based on previous investigations, has been adapted and tested for the first time to this new and specific context. Additionally, the research conducted has provided some interesting findings that suggest further actions to improve and better define future rubrics, oriented to communication or even other competences. As specific PM subject concerns, it has been detected that students playing the role of Project Managers strengthen their competences more than those ones that play the role of Team Members. It has also been detected that students have more difficulty assimilating concepts related to risk and quality management. However those concepts related with scope, time or cost areas of knowledge have been better assimilated by the students.
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The study examines the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for the mining sector using weekly stock returns from 27 companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) for the period of December 2008 to December 2010. The results support the use of the CAPM for the allocation of risk to companies. Most companies involved in precious metals (particularly gold), which have a beta value less than unity (Table 1), have been actuated as shelter values during the financial crisis. Values of R2 do not shown very explanatory power of fitted models (R2 < 70 %). Estimated coefficients beta are not sufficient to determine the expected returns on securities but the results of the tests conducted on sample data for the period analysed do not appear to clearly reject the CAPM
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The study addresses the need to manage the risk of the purchase price of coal in a power company by changing the management model of the purchasing department. It eliminates the risk of price reduces the cost of buying coal and optimizing the performance of all electricity generation plants belonging to the company. You get more flexibility and optionallity to gain additional benefits both economic and efficiency in the supply to our generation fleet. The tools to achieve the above purpose will be financial derivatives that will be used as elements of management and not as mere speculation in the markets.
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Expert knowledge is used to assign probabilities to events in many risk analysis models. However, experts sometimes find it hard to provide specific values for these probabilities, preferring to express vague or imprecise terms that are mapped using a previously defined fuzzy number scale. The rigidity of these scales generates bias in the probability elicitation process and does not allow experts to adequately express their probabilistic judgments. We present an interactive method for extracting a fuzzy number from experts that represents their probabilistic judgments for a given event, along with a quality measure of the probabilistic judgments, useful in a final information filtering and analysis sensitivity process.
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La Gestin Forestal Sostenible se define como la administracin y uso de los bosques y tierras forestales de forma e intensidad tales que mantengan su biodiversidad, productividad, capacidad de regeneracin, vitalidad y su potencial para atender, ahora y en el futuro, las funciones ecolgicas, econmicas y sociales relevantes a escala local, nacional y global, y que no causan dao a otros ecosistemas (MCPFE Conference, 1993). Dentro del proceso los procesos de planificacin, en cualquier escala, es necesario establecer cul ser la situacin a la que se quiere llegar mediante la gestin. Igualmente, ser necesario conocer la situacin actual, pues marcar la situacin de partida y condicionar el tipo de actuaciones a realizar para alcanzar los objetivos fijados. Dado que, los Proyectos de Ordenacin de Montes y sus respectivas revisiones son herramientas de planificacin, durante la redaccin de los mismos, ser necesario establecer una serie de objetivos cuya consecucin pueda verificarse de forma objetiva y disponer de una caracterizacin de la masa forestal que permita conocer la situacin de partida. Esta tesis se centra en problemas prcticos, propios de una escala de planificacin local o de Proyecto de Ordenacin de Montes. El primer objetivo de la tesis es determinar distribuciones diamtricas y de alturas de referencia para masas regulares por bosquetes, empleando para ello el modelo conceptual propuesto por Garca-Abril et al., (1999) y datos procedentes de las Tablas de produccin de Rojo y Montero (1996). Las distribuciones de referencia obtenidas permitirn guiar la gestin de masas irregulares y regulares por bosquetes. Ambos tipos de masas aparecen como una alternativa deseable en aquellos casos en los que se quiere potenciar la biodiversidad, la estabilidad, la multifuncionalidad del bosque y/o como alternativa productiva, especialmente indicada para la produccin de madera de calidad. El segundo objetivo de la Tesis est relacionado con la necesidad de disponer de una caracterizacin adecuada de la masa forestal durante la redaccin de los Proyectos de Ordenacin de Montes y de sus respectivas revisiones. Con el fin de obtener estimaciones de variables forestales en distintas unidades territoriales de potencial inters para la Ordenacin de Montes, as como medidas de la incertidumbre en asociada dichas estimaciones, se extienden ciertos resultados de la literatura de Estimacin en reas Pequeas. Mediante un caso de estudio, se demuestra el potencial de aplicacin de estas tcnicas en inventario forestales asistidos con informacin auxiliar procedente de sensores lser aerotransportados (ALS). Los casos de estudio se realizan empleando datos ALS similares a los recopilados en el marco del Plan Nacional de Ortofotografa Area (PNOA). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que es posible aumentar la eficiencia de los inventarios forestales tradicionales a escala de proyecto de Ordenacin de Montes, mediante la aplicacin de estimadores EBLUP (Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor) con modelos a nivel de elemento poblacional e informacin auxiliar ALS similar a la recopilada por el PNOA. ABSTRACT According to MCPFE (1993) Sustainable Forest Management is the stewardship and use of forests and forest lands in a way, and at a rate, that maintains their biodiversity, productivity, regeneration capacity, vitality and their potential to fulfill, now and in the future, relevant ecological, economic and social functions, at local, national, and global levels, and that does not cause damage to other ecosystems. For forest management planning, at any scale, we must determine what situation is hoped to be achieved through management. It is also necessary to know the current situation, as this will mark the starting point and condition the type of actions to be performed in order to meet the desired objectives. Forest management at a local scale is no exception. This Thesis focuses on typical problems of forest management planning at a local scale. The first objective of this Thesis is to determine management objectives for group shelterwood management systems in terms of tree height and tree diameter reference distributions. For this purpose, the conceptual model proposed by Garca-Abril et al., (1999) is applied to the yield tables for Pinus sylvestris in Sierra de Guadrrama (Rojo y Montero, 1996). The resulting reference distributions will act as a guide in the management of forests treated under the group shelterwood management systems or as an approximated reference for the management of uneven aged forests. Both types of management systems are desirable in those cases where forest biodiversity, stability and multifunctionality are pursued goals. These management systems are also recommended as alternatives for the production of high quality wood. The second objective focuses on the need to adequately characterize the forest during the decision process that leads to local management. In order to obtain estimates of forest variables for different management units of potential interest for forest planning, as well as the associated measures of uncertainty in these estimates, certain results from Small Area Estimation Literature are extended to accommodate for the need of estimates and reliability measures in very small subpopulations containing a reduced number of pixels. A case study shows the potential of Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques in forest inventories assisted with remotely sensed auxiliary information. The influence of the laser pulse density in the quality of estimates in different aggregation levels is analyzed. This study considers low laser pulse densities (0.5 returns/m2) similar to, those provided by large-scale Airborne Laser Scanner (ALS) surveys, such as the one conducted by the Spanish National Geographic Institute for about 80% of the Spanish territory. The results obtained show that it is possible to improve the efficiency of traditional forest inventories at local scale using EBLUP (Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor) estimators based on unit level models and low density ALS auxiliary information.
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El auge del "Internet de las Cosas" (IoT, "Internet of Things") y sus tecnologas asociadas han permitido su aplicacin en diversos dominios de la aplicacin, entre los que se encuentran la monitorizacin de ecosistemas forestales, la gestin de catstrofes y emergencias, la domtica, la automatizacin industrial, los servicios para ciudades inteligentes, la eficiencia energtica de edificios, la deteccin de intrusos, la gestin de desastres y emergencias o la monitorizacin de seales corporales, entre muchas otras. La desventaja de una red IoT es que una vez desplegada, sta queda desatendida, es decir queda sujeta, entre otras cosas, a condiciones climticas cambiantes y expuestas a catstrofes naturales, fallos de software o hardware, o ataques maliciosos de terceros, por lo que se puede considerar que dichas redes son propensas a fallos. El principal requisito de los nodos constituyentes de una red IoT es que estos deben ser capaces de seguir funcionando a pesar de sufrir errores en el propio sistema. La capacidad de la red para recuperarse ante fallos internos y externos inesperados es lo que se conoce actualmente como "Resiliencia" de la red. Por tanto, a la hora de disear y desplegar aplicaciones o servicios para IoT, se espera que la red sea tolerante a fallos, que sea auto-configurable, auto-adaptable, auto-optimizable con respecto a nuevas condiciones que puedan aparecer durante su ejecucin. Esto lleva al anlisis de un problema fundamental en el estudio de las redes IoT, el problema de la "Conectividad". Se dice que una red est conectada si todo par de nodos en la red son capaces de encontrar al menos un camino de comunicacin entre ambos. Sin embargo, la red puede desconectarse debido a varias razones, como que se agote la batera, que un nodo sea destruido, etc. Por tanto, se hace necesario gestionar la resiliencia de la red con el objeto de mantener la conectividad entre sus nodos, de tal manera que cada nodo IoT sea capaz de proveer servicios continuos, a otros nodos, a otras redes o, a otros servicios y aplicaciones. En este contexto, el objetivo principal de esta tesis doctoral se centra en el estudio del problema de conectividad IoT, ms concretamente en el desarrollo de modelos para el anlisis y gestin de la Resiliencia, llevado a la prctica a travs de las redes WSN, con el fin de mejorar la capacidad la tolerancia a fallos de los nodos que componen la red. Este reto se aborda teniendo en cuenta dos enfoques distintos, por una parte, a diferencia de otro tipo de redes de dispositivos convencionales, los nodos en una red IoT son propensos a perder la conexin, debido a que se despliegan en entornos aislados, o en entornos con condiciones extremas; por otra parte, los nodos suelen ser recursos con bajas capacidades en trminos de procesamiento, almacenamiento y batera, entre otros, por lo que requiere que el diseo de la gestin de su resiliencia sea ligero, distribuido y energticamente eficiente. En este sentido, esta tesis desarrolla tcnicas auto-adaptativas que permiten a una red IoT, desde la perspectiva del control de su topologa, ser resiliente ante fallos en sus nodos. Para ello, se utilizan tcnicas basadas en lgica difusa y tcnicas de control proporcional, integral y derivativa (PID - "proportional-integral-derivative"), con el objeto de mejorar la conectividad de la red, teniendo en cuenta que el consumo de energa debe preservarse tanto como sea posible. De igual manera, se ha tenido en cuenta que el algoritmo de control debe ser distribuido debido a que, en general, los enfoques centralizados no suelen ser factibles a despliegues a gran escala. El presente trabajo de tesis implica varios retos que conciernen a la conectividad de red, entre los que se incluyen: la creacin y el anlisis de modelos matemticos que describan la red, una propuesta de sistema de control auto-adaptativo en respuesta a fallos en los nodos, la optimizacin de los parmetros del sistema de control, la validacin mediante una implementacin siguiendo un enfoque de ingeniera del software y finalmente la evaluacin en una aplicacin real. Atendiendo a los retos anteriormente mencionados, el presente trabajo justifica, mediante una anlisis matemtico, la relacin existente entre el "grado de un nodo" (definido como el nmero de nodos en la vecindad del nodo en cuestin) y la conectividad de la red, y prueba la eficacia de varios tipos de controladores que permiten ajustar la potencia de trasmisin de los nodos de red en respuesta a eventuales fallos, teniendo en cuenta el consumo de energa como parte de los objetivos de control. As mismo, este trabajo realiza una evaluacin y comparacin con otros algoritmos representativos; en donde se demuestra que el enfoque desarrollado es ms tolerante a fallos aleatorios en los nodos de la red, as como en su eficiencia energtica. Adicionalmente, el uso de algoritmos bioinspirados ha permitido la optimizacin de los parmetros de control de redes dinmicas de gran tamao. Con respecto a la implementacin en un sistema real, se han integrado las propuestas de esta tesis en un modelo de programacin OSGi ("Open Services Gateway Initiative") con el objeto de crear un middleware auto-adaptativo que mejore la gestin de la resiliencia, especialmente la reconfiguracin en tiempo de ejecucin de componentes software cuando se ha producido un fallo. Como conclusin, los resultados de esta tesis doctoral contribuyen a la investigacin terica y, a la aplicacin prctica del control resiliente de la topologa en redes distribuidas de gran tamao. Los diseos y algoritmos presentados pueden ser vistos como una prueba novedosa de algunas tcnicas para la prxima era de IoT. A continuacin, se enuncian de forma resumida las principales contribuciones de esta tesis: (1) Se han analizado matemticamente propiedades relacionadas con la conectividad de la red. Se estudia, por ejemplo, cmo vara la probabilidad de conexin de la red al modificar el alcance de comunicacin de los nodos, as como cul es el mnimo nmero de nodos que hay que aadir al sistema desconectado para su re-conexin. (2) Se han propuesto sistemas de control basados en lgica difusa para alcanzar el grado de los nodos deseado, manteniendo la conectividad completa de la red. Se han evaluado diferentes tipos de controladores basados en lgica difusa mediante simulaciones, y los resultados se han comparado con otros algoritmos representativos. (3) Se ha investigado ms a fondo, dando un enfoque ms simple y aplicable, el sistema de control de doble bucle, y sus parmetros de control se han optimizado empleando algoritmos heursticos como el mtodo de la entropa cruzada (CE, "Cross Entropy"), la optimizacin por enjambre de partculas (PSO, "Particle Swarm Optimization"), y la evolucin diferencial (DE, "Differential Evolution"). (4) Se han evaluado mediante simulacin, la mayora de los diseos aqu presentados; adems, parte de los trabajos se han implementado y validado en una aplicacin real combinando tcnicas de software auto-adaptativo, como por ejemplo las de una arquitectura orientada a servicios (SOA, "Service-Oriented Architecture"). ABSTRACT The advent of the Internet of Things (IoT) enables a tremendous number of applications, such as forest monitoring, disaster management, home automation, factory automation, smart city, etc. However, various kinds of unexpected disturbances may cause node failure in the IoT, for example battery depletion, software/hardware malfunction issues and malicious attacks. So, it can be considered that the IoT is prone to failure. The ability of the network to recover from unexpected internal and external failures is known as "resilience" of the network. Resilience usually serves as an important non-functional requirement when designing IoT, which can further be broken down into "self-*" properties, such as self-adaptive, self-healing, self-configuring, self-optimization, etc. One of the consequences that node failure brings to the IoT is that some nodes may be disconnected from others, such that they are not capable of providing continuous services for other nodes, networks, and applications. In this sense, the main objective of this dissertation focuses on the IoT connectivity problem. A network is regarded as connected if any pair of different nodes can communicate with each other either directly or via a limited number of intermediate nodes. More specifically, this thesis focuses on the development of models for analysis and management of resilience, implemented through the Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs), which is a challenging task. On the one hand, unlike other conventional network devices, nodes in the IoT are more likely to be disconnected from each other due to their deployment in a hostile or isolated environment. On the other hand, nodes are resource-constrained in terms of limited processing capability, storage and battery capacity, which requires that the design of the resilience management for IoT has to be lightweight, distributed and energy-efficient. In this context, the thesis presents self-adaptive techniques for IoT, with the aim of making the IoT resilient against node failures from the network topology control point of view. The fuzzy-logic and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control techniques are leveraged to improve the network connectivity of the IoT in response to node failures, meanwhile taking into consideration that energy consumption must be preserved as much as possible. The control algorithm itself is designed to be distributed, because the centralized approaches are usually not feasible in large scale IoT deployments. The thesis involves various aspects concerning network connectivity, including: creation and analysis of mathematical models describing the network, proposing self-adaptive control systems in response to node failures, control system parameter optimization, implementation using the software engineering approach, and evaluation in a real application. This thesis also justifies the relations between the "node degree" (the number of neighbor(s) of a node) and network connectivity through mathematic analysis, and proves the effectiveness of various types of controllers that can adjust power transmission of the IoT nodes in response to node failures. The controllers also take into consideration the energy consumption as part of the control goals. The evaluation is performed and comparison is made with other representative algorithms. The simulation results show that the proposals in this thesis can tolerate more random node failures and save more energy when compared with those representative algorithms. Additionally, the simulations demonstrate that the use of the bio-inspired algorithms allows optimizing the parameters of the controller. With respect to the implementation in a real system, the programming model called OSGi (Open Service Gateway Initiative) is integrated with the proposals in order to create a self-adaptive middleware, especially reconfiguring the software components at runtime when failures occur. The outcomes of this thesis contribute to theoretic research and practical applications of resilient topology control for large and distributed networks. The presented controller designs and optimization algorithms can be viewed as novel trials of the control and optimization techniques for the coming era of the IoT. The contributions of this thesis can be summarized as follows: (1) Mathematically, the fault-tolerant probability of a large-scale stochastic network is analyzed. It is studied how the probability of network connectivity depends on the communication range of the nodes, and what is the minimum number of neighbors to be added for network re-connection. (2) A fuzzy-logic control system is proposed, which obtains the desired node degree and in turn maintains the network connectivity when it is subject to node failures. There are different types of fuzzy-logic controllers evaluated by simulations, and the results demonstrate the improvement of fault-tolerant capability as compared to some other representative algorithms. (3) A simpler but more applicable approach, the two-loop control system is further investigated, and its control parameters are optimized by using some heuristic algorithms such as Cross Entropy (CE), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Differential Evolution (DE). (4) Most of the designs are evaluated by means of simulations, but part of the proposals are implemented and tested in a real-world application by combining the self-adaptive software technique and the control algorithms which are presented in this thesis.
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Cover title: Land and resource management plan, overview, Toiyabe National Forest.
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WI docs. no.: Ed.3/2:I 5/1979/7/4
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Title Varies: 1935-36, Digest of Proceedings; 1937-39, Proceedings
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Cover title: Committees for community shelter planning.
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