Bayesian Accelerated Life Testing under Competing Weibull Causes of Failure

Consider a J-component series system which is put on Accelerated Life Test (ALT) involving K stress variables. First, a general formulation of ALT is provided for log-location-scale family of distributions. A general stress translation function of location parameter of the component log-lifetime distribution is proposed which can accommodate standard ones like Arrhenius, power-rule, log-linear model, etc., as special cases. Later, the component lives are assumed to be independent Weibull random variables with a common shape parameter. A full Bayesian methodology is then developed by letting only the scale parameters of the Weibull component lives depend on the stress variables through the general stress translation function. Priors on all the parameters, namely the stress coefficients and the Weibull shape parameter, are assumed to be log-concave and independent of each other. This assumption is to facilitate Gibbs sampling from the joint posterior. The samples thus generated from the joint posterior is then used to obtain the Bayesian point and interval estimates of the system reliability at usage condition.

Bayesian Accelerated Life Testing under Competing Weibull Causes of Failure

Consider a J-component series system which is put on Accelerated Life Test (ALT) involving K stress variables. First, a general formulation of ALT is provided for log-location-scale family of distributions. A general stress translation function of location parameter of the component log-lifetime distribution is proposed which can accommodate standard ones like Arrhenius, power-rule, log-linear model, etc., as special cases. Later, the component lives are assumed to be independent Weibull random variables with a common shape parameter. A full Bayesian methodology is then developed by letting only the scale parameters of the Weibull component lives depend on the stress variables through the general stress translation function. Priors on all the parameters, namely the stress coefficients and the Weibull shape parameter, are assumed to be log-concave and independent of each other. This assumption is to facilitate Gibbs sampling from the joint posterior. The samples thus generated from the joint posterior is then used to obtain the Bayesian point and interval estimates of the system reliability at usage condition.

Maximum likelihood analysis of multi-stress accelerated life test data of series systems with competing log-normal causes of failure

This article presents frequentist inference of accelerated life test data of series systems with independent log-normal component lifetimes. The means of the component log-lifetimes are assumed to depend on the stress variables through a linear stress translation function that can accommodate the standard stress translation functions in the literature. An expectation-maximization algorithm is developed to obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of model parameters. The maximum likelihood estimates are then further refined by bootstrap, which is also used to infer about the component and system reliability metrics at usage stresses. The developed methodology is illustrated by analyzing a real as well as a simulated dataset. A simulation study is also carried out to judge the effectiveness of the bootstrap. It is found that in this model, application of bootstrap results in significant improvement over the simple maximum likelihood estimates.

Endogenous Formation of Competing Partnership with Moral Hazard

Published as an article in: Games and Economic Behavior, 2003, vol. 44, issue 1, pages 183-194.

Competing Ecosystem services: an Assessment of Carbon and timber in the Tropical forests of Central America

4 p.

Competing Ecosystem Services: an Assessment of Carbon and Timber in the Tropical Forests of Central America

29 p.

How resources control aggression in Drosophila

How animals use sensory information to weigh the risks vs. benefits of behavioral decisions remains poorly understood. Inter-male aggression is triggered when animals perceive both the presence of an appetitive resource, such as food or females, and of competing conspecific males. How such signals are detected and integrated to control the decision to fight is not clear. Here we use the vinegar fly, Drosophila melanogaster, to investigate the manner in which food and females promotes aggression.

In the first chapter, we explore how food controls aggression. As in many other species, food promotes aggression in flies, but it is not clear whether food increases aggression per se, or whether aggression is a secondary consequence of increased social interactions caused by aggregation of flies on food. Furthermore, nothing is known about how animals evaluate the quality and quantity of food in the context of competition. We show that food promotes aggression independently of any effect to increase the frequency of contact between males. Food increases aggression but not courtship between males, suggesting that the effect of food on aggression is specific. Next, we show that flies tune the level of aggression according to absolute amount of food rather than other parameters, such as area or concentration of food. Sucrose, a sugar molecule present in many fruits, is sufficient to promote aggression, and detection of sugar via gustatory receptor neurons is necessary for food-promoted aggression. Furthermore, we show that while food is necessary for aggression, too much food decreases aggression. Finally, we show that flies exhibit strategies consistent with a territorial strategy. These data suggest that flies use sweet-sensing gustatory information to guide their decision to fight over a limited quantity of a food resource.

Following up on the findings of the first chapter, we asked how the presence of a conspecific female resource promotes male-male aggression. In the absence of food, group-housed male flies, who normally do not fight even in the presence of food, fight in the presence of females. Unlike food, the presence of females strongly influences proximity between flies. Nevertheless, as group-housed flies do not fight even when they are in small chambers, it is unlikely that the presence of female indirectly increases aggression by first increasing proximity. Unlike food, the presence of females also leads to large increases in locomotion and in male-female courtship behaviors, suggesting that females may influence aggression as well as general arousal. Female cuticular hydrocarbons are required for this effect, as females that do not produce CH pheromones are unable to promote male-male aggression. In particular, 7,11-HD––a female-specific cuticular hydrocarbon pheromone critical for male-female courtship––is sufficient to mediate this effect when it is perfumed onto pheromone-deficient females or males. Recent studies showed that ppk23⁺ GRNs label two population of GRNs, one of which detects male cuticular hydrocarbons and another labeled by ppk23 and ppk25, which detects female cuticular hydrocarbons. I show that in particular, both of these GRNs control aggression, presumably via detection of female or male pheromones. To further investigate the ways in which these two classes of GRNs control aggression, I developed new genetic tools to independently test the male- and female-sensing GRNs. I show that ppk25-LexA and ppk25-GAL80 faithfully recapitulate the expression pattern of ppk25-GAL4 and label a subset of ppk23⁺ GRNs. These tools can be used in future studies to dissect the respective functions of male-sensing and female-sensing GRNs in male social behaviors.

Finally, in the last chapter, I discuss quantitative approaches to describe how varying quantities of food and females could control the level of aggression. Flies show an inverse-U shaped aggressive response to varying quantities of food and a flat aggressive response to varying quantities of females. I show how two simple game theoretic models, “prisoner’s dilemma” and “coordination game” could be used to describe the level of aggression we observe. These results suggest that flies may use strategic decision-making, using simple comparisons of costs and benefits.

In conclusion, male-male aggression in Drosophila is controlled by simple gustatory cues from food and females, which are detected by gustatory receptor neurons. Different quantities of resource cues lead to different levels of aggression, and flies show putative territorial behavior, suggesting that fly aggression is a highly strategic adaptive behavior. How these resource cues are integrated with male pheromone cues and give rise to this complex behavior is an interesting subject, which should keep researchers busy in the coming years.

A computer software package for assessing and managing risks posed by experiments with genetically modified fish and shellfish

Assessment and management of risk is needed for sustainable use of genetically modified aquatic organisms (aquatic GMOs). A computer software package for safely conducting research with genetically modified fish and shellfish is described. By answering a series of questions about the organism and the accessible aquatic ecosystem, a researcher or oversight authority can either identify specific risks or conclude that there is a specific reason for safety of the experiment. Risk assessment protocols with examples involving transgenic coho salmon, triploid grass carp and hybrid tilapia are described. In case a specific risk is identified, the user is led to consider risk management measures, involving culture methods, facilities design and operations management, to minimize the risk. Key features of the software are its user-friendly organization; easy access to explanatory text, literature citations and glossary; and automated completion of a worksheet. Documented completion of the Performance Standards can facilitate approval of a well designed experiment by oversight authorities.

Disease Risks Associated with Importation of Nonindigenous Marine Animals

Transfers and introductions of marine species have occurred and are occurring on a worldwide basis, largely in response to perceived needs of expanding aquaculture industries. Greatest interest is in salmon (cage rearing and ocean ranching), shrimp, and bivalve mollusks, although other organisms are being considered. Such movements of animals carry an associated risk of moving pathogens into areas where they did not occur previously, possibly resulting in infections in native species. Many case histories of the effects of introduced pathogens and parasites now exist-enough to suggest that national and international action is necessary. Viral pathogens of shrimp and salmon, as well as protozoan parasites of mollusks and nematode parasites of eels, have entered complex "transfer networks" developed by humans, and have been transported globally with their hosts in several well-documented instances. Examining the records of transfers and introductions of marine species, incomplete as they are, permits the statement of emerging principles-foremost of which is that severe disease outbreaks can result from inadequately controlled or uncontrolled movements of marine animals.

Competing for the Recreational Dollar: An Analysis of the California Commercial Passenger-Carrying Fishing Vessel Industry

California has a large and diverse marine recreational fishery. Anglers on commercial passenger-carrying fishing vessels (CPFV's) harvest a substantial proportion of California's marine recreational fisheries landings, accounting for about 40 percent and 16 percent of the total 1986 marine recreational catch in southern and northern California, respectively (NMFS, 1987). In 1986, 459,369 CPFV anglers landed some 2,835,021 fish in southern California, while 200,925 CPFV anglers landed 1,240, 100 fish in central and northern California.

Implications of using On-Farm Flood Flow Capture to recharge groundwater and mitigate flood risks along the Kings River, CA

Two large hydrologic issues face the Kings Basin, severe and chronic overdraft of about 0.16M ac-ft annually, and flood risks along the Kings River and the downstream San Joaquin River. Since 1983, these floods have caused over $1B in damage in today’s dollars. Capturing flood flows of sufficient volume could help address these two pressing issues which are relevant to many regions of the Central Valley and will only be exacerbated with climate change. However, the Kings River has high variability associated with flow magnitudes which suggests that standard engineering approaches and acquisition of sufficient acreage through purchase and easements to capture and recharge flood waters would not be cost effective. An alternative approach investigated in this study, termed On-Farm Flood Flow Capture, involved leveraging large areas of private farmland to capture flood flows for both direct and in lieu recharge. This study investigated the technical and logistical feasibility of best management practices (BMPs) associated with On-Farm Flood Flow Capture. The investigation was conducted near Helm, CA, about 20 miles west of Fresno, CA. The experimental design identified a coordinated plan to determine infiltration rates for different soil series and different crops; develop a water budget for water applied throughout the program and estimate direct and in lieu recharge; provide a preliminary assessment of potential water quality impacts; assess logistical issues associated with implementation; and provide an economic summary of the program. At check locations, we measured average infiltration rates of 4.2 in/d for all fields and noted that infiltration rates decreased asymptotically over time to about 2 – 2.5 in/d. Rates did not differ significantly between the different crops and soils tested, but were found to be about an order of magnitude higher in one field. At a 2.5 in/d infiltration rate, 100 acres are required to infiltrate 10 CFS of captured flood flows. Water quality of applied flood flows from the Kings River had concentrations of COC (constituents of concern; i.e. nitrate, electrical conductivity or EC, phosphate, ammonium, total dissolved solids or TDS) one order of magnitude or more lower than for pumped groundwater at Terranova Ranch and similarly for a broader survey of regional groundwater. Applied flood flows flushed the root zone and upper vadose zone of nitrate and salts, leading to much lower EC and nitrate concentrations to a depth of 8 feet when compared to fields in which more limited flood flows were applied or for which drip irrigation with groundwater was the sole water source. In demonstrating this technology on the farm, approximately 3,100 ac-ft was diverted, primarily from April through mid-July, with about 70% towards in lieu and 30% towards direct recharge. Substantial flood flow volumes were applied to alfalfa, wine grapes and pistachio fields. A subset of those fields, primarily wine grapes and pistachios, were used primarily to demonstrate direct recharge. For those fields about 50 – 75% of water applied was calculated going to direct recharge. Data from the check studies suggests more flood flows could have been applied and infiltrated, effectively driving up the amount of water towards direct recharge. Costs to capture flood flows for in lieu and direct recharge for this project were low compared to recharge costs for other nearby systems and in comparison to irrigating with groundwater. Moreover, the potentially high flood capture capacity of this project suggests significant flood avoidance costs savings to downstream communities along the Kings and San Joaquin Rivers. Our analyses for Terranova Ranch suggest that allocating 25% or more flood flow water towards in lieu recharge and the rest toward direct recharge will result in an economically sustainable recharge approach paid through savings from reduced groundwater pumping. Two important issues need further consideration. First, these practices are likely to leach legacy salts and nitrates from the unsaturated zone into groundwater. We develop a conceptual model of EC movement through the unsaturated zone and estimated through mass balance calculations that approximately 10 kilograms per square meter of salts will be flushed into the groundwater through displacing 12 cubic meters per square meter of unsaturated zone pore water. This flux would increase groundwater salinity but an equivalent amount of water added subsequently is predicted as needed to return to current groundwater salinity levels. All subsequent flood flow capture and recharge is expected to further decrease groundwater salinity levels. Second, the project identified important farm-scale logistical issues including irrigator training; developing cropping plans to integrate farming and recharge activities; upgrading conveyance; and quantifying results. Regional logistical issues also exist related to conveyance, integration with agricultural management, economics, required acreage and Operation and Maintenance (O&M).