Cold weather plan for England

The cold weather plan gives advice to help prevent the major avoidable effects on health during periods of cold weather in England. The documents for the 2015 to 2016 winter season include: cold weather plan making the case: why long-term strategic planning for cold weather is essential to health and wellbeing letter for local authorities chief executives, directors of public health, directors of adult and child services, chairs of health and wellbeing boards, NHS England regional, clinical leads of CCGs

Convective Cold Pools over the Atlas Mountains and Their Influence on the Saharan Heat Low

The West African Monsoon (WAM) and its representation in numerical models are strongly influenced by the Saharan Heat Low (SHL), a low-pressure system driven by radiative heating over the central Sahara and ventilated by the cold and moist inflow from adjacent oceans. It has recently been shown that a significant part of the southerly moisture flux into the SHL originates from convective cold pools over the Sahel. These density currents driven by evaporation of rain are largely absent in models with parameterized convection. This crucial issue has been hypothesized to contribute to the inability of many climate models to reproduce the variability of the WAM. Here, the role of convective cold pools approaching the SHL from the Atlas Mountains, which are a strong orographic trigger for deep convection in Northwest Africa, is analyzed. Knowledge about the frequency of these events, as well as their impact on large-scale dynamics, is required to understand their contribution to the variability of the SHL and to known model uncertainties. The first aspect is addressed through the development of an objective and automated method for the generation of multi-year climatologies not available before. The algorithm combines freely available standard surface observations with satellite microwave data. Representativeness of stations and influence of their spatial density are addressed by comparison to a satellite-only climatology. Applying this algorithm to data from automated weather stations and manned synoptic stations in and south of the Atlas Mountains reveals the frequent occurrence. On the order of 6 events per month are detected from May to September when the SHL is in its northernmost position. The events tend to cluster into several-days long convectively active periods, often with strong events on consecutive days. This study is the first to diagnose dynamical impacts of such periods on the SHL, based on simulations of two example cases using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model at convection-permitting resolution. Sensitivity experiments with artificially removed cold pools as well as different resolutions and parameterizations are conducted. Results indicate increases in surface pressure of more than 1 hPa and significant moisture transports into the desert over several days. This moisture affects radiative heating and thus the energy balance of the SHL. Even though cold pool events north of the SHL are less frequent when compared to their Sahelian counterparts, it is shown that they gain importance due to their temporal clustering on synoptic timescale. Together with studies focusing on the Sahel, this work emphasizes the need for improved parameterization schemes for deep convection in order to produce more reliable climate projections for the WAM.

Thermal Tolerance of the Coffee Berry Borer Hypothenemus hampei: Predictions of Climate Change Impact on a Tropical Insect Pest

Coffee is predicted to be severely affected by climate change. We determined the thermal tolerance of the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei, the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, and make inferences on the possible effects of climate change using climatic data from Colombia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. For this, the effect of eight temperature regimes (15, 20, 23, 25, 27, 30, 33 and 35 degrees C) on the bionomics of H. hampei was studied. Successful egg to adult development occurred between 20-30 degrees C. Using linear regression and a modified Logan model, the lower and upper thresholds for development were estimated at 14.9 and 32 degrees C, respectively. In Kenya and Colombia, the number of pest generations per year was considerably and positively correlated with the warming tolerance. Analysing 32 years of climatic data from Jimma (Ethiopia) revealed that before 1984 it was too cold for H. hampei to complete even one generation per year, but thereafter, because of rising temperatures in the area, 1-2 generations per year/coffee season could be completed. Calculated data on warming tolerance and thermal safety margins of H. hampei for the three East African locations showed considerably high variability compared to the Colombian site. The model indicates that for every 1 degrees C rise in thermal optimum (T(opt)), the maximum intrinsic rate of increase (r(max)) will increase by an average of 8.5%. The effects of climate change on the further range of H. hampei distribution and possible adaption strategies are discussed. Abstracts in Spanish and French are provided as supplementary material Abstract S1 and Abstract S2.

GGE biplot analysis of multi-environment yield trials of rice produced in a temperate climate

Low temperature is one of the main environmental constraints for rice ( Oryza sativa L.) grain production yield. It is known that multi-environment studies play a critical role in the sustainability of rice production across diverse environments. However, there are few studies based on multi-environment studies of rice in temperate climates. The aim was to study the performance of rice plants in cold environments. Four experimental lines and six cultivars were evaluated at three locations during three seasons. The grain yield data were analyzed with ANOVA, mixed models based on the best linear unbiased predictors (BLUPs), and genotype plus Genotype × Environment interaction (GGE) biplot. High genotype contribution (> 25%) was observed in grain yield and the interaction between genotype and locations was not very important. Results also showed that ‘Quila 241319’ was the best experimental line with the highest grain yield (11.3 t ha-1) and grain yield stability across the environments; commercial cultivars were classified as medium grain yield genotypes.