Technology selection and group decision support systems: Case studies on supporting strategic technology selection processes

The objective of the dissertation is to increase understanding and knowledge in the field where group decision support system (GDSS) and technology selection research overlap in the strategic sense. The purpose is to develop pragmatic, unique and competent management practices and processes for strategic technology assessment and selection from the whole company's point of view. The combination of the GDSS and technology selection is approached from the points of view of the core competence concept, the lead user -method, and different technology types. In this research the aim is to find out how the GDSS contributes to the technology selection process, what aspects should be considered when selecting technologies to be developed or acquired, and what advantages and restrictions the GDSS has in the selection processes. These research objectives are discussed on the basis of experiences and findings in real life selection meetings. The research has been mainly carried outwith constructive, case study research methods. The study contributes novel ideas to the present knowledge and prior literature on the GDSS and technology selection arena. Academic and pragmatic research has been conducted in four areas: 1) the potential benefits of the group support system with the lead user -method,where the need assessment process is positioned as information gathering for the selection of wireless technology development projects; 2) integrated technology selection and core competencies management processes both in theory and in practice; 3) potential benefits of the group decision support system in the technology selection processes of different technology types; and 4) linkages between technology selection and R&D project selection in innovative product development networks. New type of knowledge and understanding has been created on the practical utilization of the GDSS in technology selection decisions. The study demonstrates that technology selection requires close cooperation between differentdepartments, functions, and strategic business units in order to gather the best knowledge for the decision making. The GDSS is proved to be an effective way to promote communication and co-operation between the selectors. The constructs developed in this study have been tested in many industry fields, for example in information and communication, forest, telecommunication, metal, software, and miscellaneous industries, as well as in non-profit organizations. The pragmatic results in these organizations are some of the most relevant proofs that confirm the scientific contribution of the study, according to the principles of the constructive research approach.

Influence of different systems of minimum ventilation on air quality in broiler houses

To maintain a competitive development of the Brazilian aviculture, some measures must be taken to enable the identification and reduction of risks to the health of birds, as well as for the physical environment. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of three different systems of minimum ventilation (positive pressure - SVMP, negative pressure - SVMN and natural ventilation - SVMNat) in the air quality during the first 21 days of life of broiler chicks, during winter. Three points were selected along the length to verify ammonia, carbon monoxide and oxygen concentrations at 3a.m., 9a.m., 3p.m. and 9p.m., by the respiration level of birds and workers. The averages of pollutant gases did not exceed the tolerance levels for the three minimum ventilation systems evaluated, which is 20 and 10ppm for the birds level and 20 and 39ppm for the workers level, for ammonia and carbon monoxide, respectively. It was evident that the minimum ventilation systems were appropriately sized for the required minimum ambient air renovation, in respect to ventilation rates applied for the SVMN and SVMP systems, and with air velocity at levels that do not stress the chicks, including for the SVMNat. The three studied systems of minimum ventilation allowed the birds to externalize their productive performance, with values close to the ones considered satisfactory for all evaluated parameters, in accordance with the Brazilian aviculture standards.

Improving strategic decision-making with simulation based decision support systems

Combating climate change is one of the key tasks of humanity in the 21st century. One of the leading causes is carbon dioxide emissions due to usage of fossil fuels. Renewable energy sources should be used instead of relying on oil, gas, and coal. In Finland a significant amount of energy is produced using wood. The usage of wood chips is expected to increase in the future significantly, over 60 %. The aim of this research is to improve understanding over the costs of wood chip supply chains. This is conducted by utilizing simulation as the main research method. The simulation model utilizes both agent-based modelling and discrete event simulation to imitate the wood chip supply chain. This thesis concentrates on the usage of simulation based decision support systems in strategic decision-making. The simulation model is part of a decision support system, which connects the simulation model to databases but also provides a graphical user interface for the decisionmaker. The main analysis conducted with the decision support system concentrates on comparing a traditional supply chain to a supply chain utilizing specialized containers. According to the analysis, the container supply chain is able to have smaller costs than the traditional supply chain. Also, a container supply chain can be more easily scaled up due to faster emptying operations. Initially the container operations would only supply part of the fuel needs of a power plant and it would complement the current supply chain. The model can be expanded to include intermodal supply chains as due to increased demand in the future there is not enough wood chips located close to current and future power plants.

Theoretical Analysis and Numerical Simulation of Spectral Radiative Properties of Combustion Gases in Oxy/Air-Fired Combustion Systems

Energy efficiency is one of the major objectives which should be achieved in order to implement the limited energy resources of the world in a sustainable way. Since radiative heat transfer is the dominant heat transfer mechanism in most of fossil fuel combustion systems, more accurate insight and models may cause improvement in the energy efficiency of the new designed combustion systems. The radiative properties of combustion gases are highly wavelength dependent. Better models for calculating the radiative properties of combustion gases are highly required in the modeling of large scale industrial combustion systems. With detailed knowledge of spectral radiative properties of gases, the modeling of combustion processes in the different applications can be more accurate. In order to propose a new method for effective non gray modeling of radiative heat transfer in combustion systems, different models for the spectral properties of gases including SNBM, EWBM, and WSGGM have been studied in this research. Using this detailed analysis of different approaches, the thesis presents new methods for gray and non gray radiative heat transfer modeling in homogeneous and inhomogeneous H2O–CO2 mixtures at atmospheric pressure. The proposed method is able to support the modeling of a wide range of combustion systems including the oxy-fired combustion scenario. The new methods are based on implementing some pre-obtained correlations for the total emissivity and band absorption coefficient of H2O–CO2 mixtures in different temperatures, gas compositions, and optical path lengths. They can be easily used within any commercial CFD software for radiative heat transfer modeling resulting in more accurate, simple, and fast calculations. The new methods were successfully used in CFD modeling by applying them to industrial scale backpass channel under oxy-fired conditions. The developed approaches are more accurate compared with other methods; moreover, they can provide complete explanation and detailed analysis of the radiation heat transfer in different systems under different combustion conditions. The methods were verified by applying them to some benchmarks, and they showed a good level of accuracy and computational speed compared to other methods. Furthermore, the implementation of the suggested banded approach in CFD software is very easy and straightforward.

Leaf contents of nitrogen and phenolic compounds and their bearing with the herbivore damage to Tibouchina pulchra Cogn. (Melastomataceae), under the influence of air pollutants from industries of Cubatão, São Paulo

The Atlantic Forest on the slopes of Serra do Mar around Cubatão (São Paulo, Brazil) has been affected by massive emissions of pollutants from the local growing industrial complex. The effects of air pollution on the amounts of leaf nitrogen, total soluble phenols and total tannins of Tibouchina pulchra Cogn., a common species in the area of Cubatão, were investigated, as well as the possible influence of the altered parameters on the leaf area damaged by herbivores. Fully expanded leaves were collected at two sites: the valley of Pilões river (VP), characterized by a vegetation virtually not affected by air pollution and taken as a reference; and valley of Mogi river (VM), close to the core region of the industrial complex, and severely affected by air pollution. No differences were observed for any parameters between samples collected in the summer and winter in both sites. On the other hand, compared to VP, individuals growing in VM presented higher amounts of nitrogen and lower amounts of total soluble phenols and total tannins, as well as higher percentages of galls per leaf and higher leaf area lost to herbivores. Regression analysis revealed that the increase in leaf area lost to herbivores can be explained by the increase of the content of nitrogen and decrease in the contents of total soluble phenols and total tannins. Although significant, the coefficients of explanation found were low for all analyses, suggesting that other biotic or abiotic factors are likely to influence leaf attack by herbivores.

Methyl and ethyl chloride synthesis in microreactors

Methyl chloride is an important chemical intermediate with a variety of applications. It is produced today in large units and shipped to the endusers. Most of the derived products are harmless, as silicones, butyl rubber and methyl cellulose. However, methyl chloride is highly toxic and flammable. On-site production in the required quantities is desirable to reduce the risks involved in transportation and storage. Ethyl chloride is a smaller-scale chemical intermediate that is mainly used in the production of cellulose derivatives. Thus, the combination of onsite production of methyl and ethyl chloride is attractive for the cellulose processing industry, e.g. current and future biorefineries. Both alkyl chlorides can be produced by hydrochlorination of the corresponding alcohol, ethanol or methanol. Microreactors are attractive for the on-site production as the reactions are very fast and involve toxic chemicals. In microreactors, the diffusion limitations can be suppressed and the process safety can be improved. The modular setup of microreactors is flexible to adjust the production capacity as needed. Although methyl and ethyl chloride are important chemical intermediates, the literature available on potential catalysts and reaction kinetics is limited. Thus the thesis includes an extensive catalyst screening and characterization, along with kinetic studies and engineering the hydrochlorination process in microreactors. A range of zeolite and alumina based catalysts, neat and impregnated with ZnCl2, were screened for the methanol hydrochlorination. The influence of zinc loading, support, zinc precursor and pH was investigated. The catalysts were characterized with FTIR, TEM, XPS, nitrogen physisorption, XRD and EDX to identify the relationship between the catalyst characteristics and the activity and selectivity in the methyl chloride synthesis. The acidic properties of the catalyst were strongly influenced upon the ZnCl2 modification. In both cases, alumina and zeolite supports, zinc reacted to a certain amount with specific surface sites, which resulted in a decrease of strong and medium Brønsted and Lewis acid sites and the formation of zinc-based weak Lewis acid sites. The latter are highly active and selective in methanol hydrochlorination. Along with the molecular zinc sites, bulk zinc species are present on the support material. Zinc modified zeolite catalysts exhibited the highest activity also at low temperatures (ca 200 °C), however, showing deactivation with time-onstream. Zn/H-ZSM-5 zeolite catalysts had a higher stability than ZnCl2 modified H-Beta and they could be regenerated by burning the coke in air at 400 °C. Neat alumina and zinc modified alumina catalysts were active and selective at 300 °C and higher temperatures. However, zeolite catalysts can be suitable for methyl chloride synthesis at lower temperatures, i.e. 200 °C. Neat γ-alumina was found to be the most stable catalyst when coated in a microreactor channel and it was thus used as the catalyst for systematic kinetic studies in the microreactor. A binder-free and reproducible catalyst coating technique was developed. The uniformity, thickness and stability of the coatings were extensively characterized by SEM, confocal microscopy and EDX analysis. A stable coating could be obtained by thermally pretreating the microreactor platelets and ball milling the alumina to obtain a small particle size. Slurry aging and slow drying improved the coating uniformity. Methyl chloride synthesis from methanol and hydrochloric acid was performed in an alumina-coated microreactor. Conversions from 4% to 83% were achieved in the investigated temperature range of 280-340 °C. This demonstrated that the reaction is fast enough to be successfully performed in a microreactor system. The performance of the microreactor was compared with a tubular fixed bed reactor. The results obtained with both reactors were comparable, but the microreactor allows a rapid catalytic screening with low consumption of chemicals. As a complete conversion of methanol could not be reached in a single microreactor, a second microreactor was coupled in series. A maximum conversion of 97.6 % and a selectivity of 98.8 % were reached at 340°C, which is close to the calculated values at a thermodynamic equilibrium. A kinetic model based on kinetic experiments and thermodynamic calculations was developed. The model was based on a Langmuir Hinshelwood-type mechanism and a plug flow model for the microreactor. The influence of the reactant adsorption on the catalyst surface was investigated by performing transient experiments and comparing different kinetic models. The obtained activation energy for methyl chloride was ca. two fold higher than the previously published, indicating diffusion limitations in the previous studies. A detailed modeling of the diffusion in the porous catalyst layer revealed that severe diffusion limitations occur starting from catalyst coating thicknesses of 50 μm. At a catalyst coating thickness of ca 15 μm as in the microreactor, the conditions of intrinsic kinetics prevail. Ethanol hydrochlorination was performed successfully in the microreactor system. The reaction temperature was 240-340°C. An almost complete conversion of ethanol was achieved at 340°C. The product distribution was broader than for methanol hydrochlorination. Ethylene, diethyl ether and acetaldehyde were detected as by-products, ethylene being the most dominant by-product. A kinetic model including a thorough thermodynamic analysis was developed and the influence of adsorbed HCl on the reaction rate of ethanol dehydration reactions was demonstrated. The separation of methyl chloride using condensers was investigated. The proposed microreactor-condenser concept enables the production of methyl chloride with a high purity of 99%.

Structures spatiales dans la pensée religieuse grecque de l'époque archaïque : la représentation de quelques espaces insondables: l'éther, l'air, l'abîme marin

Cette thèse se propose d’étudier les façons dont la pensée et l’imaginaire grec de l’époque archaïque se représentaient quelques pans du réel qui ne se laissaient jamais voir ni atteindre: l’éther, l’air et l’abîme marin. Vu le caractère insondable de ces espaces, l’imagination et l’abstraction se sont ingéniées à les appréhender par un discours spécifique et à les intégrer dans le système de connaissances et de croyances propre à l’époque en leur assignant une place dans le système de l’univers, en les rattachant à une hiérarchie de l’ordre cosmologique, en leur donnant une forme, en classant leurs objets et en les rapportant aux modèles du monde connu, en les aménageant par les moyens les plus divers. Une étude des formes d’expression de la pensée grecque archaïque, autant littéraires qu’iconographiques, permet de cerner les diverses formes de représentation des domaines inaccessibles et les modèles d’organisation spatiale issus de ce type de pensée. Grâce à la dialectique particulière qui ressort du rapport entre espace et mouvement, cette thèse se propose également d’interroger le corpus des sources grecques archaïques sous des angles jusqu’ici peu explorés: comment maîtrise-t-on l’espace par les déplacements physiques en dehors des parcours terrestres? Comment les schémas du mouvement dans l’espace se sont-ils forgés? Comment les dichotomies issues de la logique spatiale archaïque (haut/bas, droite/gauche, est/ouest, en deça/au-delà, etc.) influent-elles sur la structuration spatiale? Quelles espèces d’espace révèlent les déplacements à travers les différents niveaux du monde, que ce soit ceux des dieux, ceux des mortels et d’autres entités, forces physiques et substances privilégiées dans le commerce avec le divin et le monde d’en haut? Ces analyses mettent en valeur les façons dont l’imagination et l’abstraction plutôt que l’expérience vécue ont contribué, à leur façon, à structurer l’espace et à forger l’image du monde comme κόσμος, monde mis en ordre et soumis autant aux lois physiques qu’aux lois divines.

Le développement d’habiletés personnelles et sociales à travers un programme de thérapie par le plein air pour jeunes contrevenants ; effets sur le niveau d’antisocialité et l’insertion socio-professionnelle

La thérapie par le plein air représente une alternative aux programmes d’intervention conventionnels pour jeunes antisociaux. Elle donne à ses participants l’occasion de modifier leurs pensées et leurs comportements dans un contexte d’expédition, à travers la participation à diverses activités de plein air. Ce faisant, ils développent leur répertoire d’habiletés personnelles et sociales, ce qui pourrait faciliter le désistement d’une conduite antisociale. Un devis expérimental prospectif, avec pré-test et post-tests à trois et six mois, a été utilisé afin d’évaluer l’effet de la durée d’une intervention de thérapie par le plein air sur le niveau d’antisocialité et l’insertion socio-professionnelle de jeunes contrevenants. De plus, l’effet potentiellement médiateur des progrès réalisés au chapitre des habiletés interpersonnelles et de la motivation d’accomplissement a été examiné. Un échantillon de 220 jeunes contrevenants a été observé, divisé aléatoirement selon deux conditions expérimentales, soit un programme de 8 à 10 jours et un programme de 17 à 20 jours. Il apparaît que la durée n’a pas d’effet direct significatif sur le niveau d’antisocialité et l’insertion socio-professionnelle des participants. En revanche, la durée du programme a un effet positif indirect sur le niveau d’antisocialité subséquent des participants, à travers l’amélioration des habiletés interpersonnelles et la motivation d’accomplissement des sujets. Aucune des variables mises en jeu n’a eu un impact significatif sur les progrès observés au niveau de l’insertion socio-professionnelle des sujets. La thérapie par le plein air semble favoriser le désistement d’une conduite antisociale en encourageant le développement de certaines habiletés personnelles qui font habituellement défaut chez les jeunes antisociaux.

Romantic attachment and perception of partner support to explain psychological aggression perpetrated in couples seeking couples therapy

Essai doctoral présenté à la Faculté des études supérieures en vue de l’obtention du grade de Docteur en psychologie (D.Psy.), option clinique

Notes on PCA, Regularization, Sparsity and Support Vector Machines

We derive a new representation for a function as a linear combination of local correlation kernels at optimal sparse locations and discuss its relation to PCA, regularization, sparsity principles and Support Vector Machines. We first review previous results for the approximation of a function from discrete data (Girosi, 1998) in the context of Vapnik"s feature space and dual representation (Vapnik, 1995). We apply them to show 1) that a standard regularization functional with a stabilizer defined in terms of the correlation function induces a regression function in the span of the feature space of classical Principal Components and 2) that there exist a dual representations of the regression function in terms of a regularization network with a kernel equal to a generalized correlation function. We then describe the main observation of the paper: the dual representation in terms of the correlation function can be sparsified using the Support Vector Machines (Vapnik, 1982) technique and this operation is equivalent to sparsify a large dictionary of basis functions adapted to the task, using a variation of Basis Pursuit De-Noising (Chen, Donoho and Saunders, 1995; see also related work by Donahue and Geiger, 1994; Olshausen and Field, 1995; Lewicki and Sejnowski, 1998). In addition to extending the close relations between regularization, Support Vector Machines and sparsity, our work also illuminates and formalizes the LFA concept of Penev and Atick (1996). We discuss the relation between our results, which are about regression, and the different problem of pattern classification.

From Regression to Classification in Support Vector Machines

We study the relation between support vector machines (SVMs) for regression (SVMR) and SVM for classification (SVMC). We show that for a given SVMC solution there exists a SVMR solution which is equivalent for a certain choice of the parameters. In particular our result is that for $epsilon$ sufficiently close to one, the optimal hyperplane and threshold for the SVMC problem with regularization parameter C_c are equal to (1-epsilon)^{- 1} times the optimal hyperplane and threshold for SVMR with regularization parameter C_r = (1-epsilon)C_c. A direct consequence of this result is that SVMC can be seen as a special case of SVMR.

A new method for evaluating regional air quality forecasts

A Kriging interpolation method is combined with an object-based evaluation measure to assess the ability of the UK Met Office's dispersion and weather prediction models to predict the evolution of a plume of tracer as it was transported across Europe. The object-based evaluation method, SAL, considers aspects of the Structure, Amplitude and Location of the pollutant field. The SAL method is able to quantify errors in the predicted size and shape of the pollutant plume, through the structure component, the over- or under-prediction of the pollutant concentrations, through the amplitude component, and the position of the pollutant plume, through the location component. The quantitative results of the SAL evaluation are similar for both models and close to a subjective visual inspection of the predictions. A negative structure component for both models, throughout the entire 60 hour plume dispersion simulation, indicates that the modelled plumes are too small and/or too peaked compared to the observed plume at all times. The amplitude component for both models is strongly positive at the start of the simulation, indicating that surface concentrations are over-predicted by both models for the first 24 hours, but modelled concentrations are within a factor of 2 of the observations at later times. Finally, for both models, the location component is small for the first 48 hours after the start of the tracer release, indicating that the modelled plumes are situated close to the observed plume early on in the simulation, but this plume location error grows at later times. The SAL methodology has also been used to identify differences in the transport of pollution in the dispersion and weather prediction models. The convection scheme in the weather prediction model is found to transport more pollution vertically out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere than the dispersion model convection scheme resulting in lower pollutant concentrations near the surface and hence a better forecast for this case study.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Dynamic simulation for closed loops in heating systems with decision-making support

Nowadays utilising the proper HVAC system is essential both in extreme weather conditions and dense buildings design. Hydraulic loops are the most common parts in all air conditioning systems. This article aims to investigate the performance of different hydraulic loop arrangements in variable flow systems. Technical, economic and environmental assessments have been considered in this process. A dynamic system simulation is generated to evaluate the system performance and an economic evaluation is conducted by whole life cost assessment. Moreover, environmental impacts have been studied by considering the whole life energy consumption, CO2 emission, the embodied energy and embodied CO2 of the system components. Finally, decision-making in choosing the most suitable hydraulic system among five well-known alternatives has been proposed.

A novel satellite mission concept for upper air water vapour, aerosol and cloud observations using integrated path differential absorption LiDAR limb sounding

We propose a new satellite mission to deliver high quality measurements of upper air water vapour. The concept centres around a LiDAR in limb sounding by occultation geometry, designed to operate as a very long path system for differential absorption measurements. We present a preliminary performance analysis with a system sized to send 75 mJ pulses at 25 Hz at four wavelengths close to 935 nm, to up to 5 microsatellites in a counter-rotating orbit, carrying retroreflectors characterized by a reflected beam divergence of roughly twice the emitted laser beam divergence of 15 µrad. This provides water vapour profiles with a vertical sampling of 110 m; preliminary calculations suggest that the system could detect concentrations of less than 5 ppm. A secondary payload of a fairly conventional medium resolution multispectral radiometer allows wide-swath cloud and aerosol imaging. The total weight and power of the system are estimated at 3 tons and 2,700 W respectively. This novel concept presents significant challenges, including the performance of the lasers in space, the tracking between the main spacecraft and the retroreflectors, the refractive effects of turbulence, and the design of the telescopes to achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio for the high precision measurements. The mission concept was conceived at the Alpbach Summer School 2010.