Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

A tephra lattice for Greenland and a reconstruction of volcanic events spanning 25–45 ka b2k

Tephra layers preserved within the Greenland ice-cores are crucial for the independent synchronisation of these high-resolution records to other palaeoclimatic archives. Here we present a new and detailed tephrochronological framework for the time period 25,000 e 45,000 a b2k that brings together results from 4 deep Greenland ice-cores. In total, 99 tephra deposits, the majority of which are preserved as cryptotephra, are described from the NGRIP, NEEM, GRIP and DYE-3 records. The major element signatures of single glass shards within these deposits indicate that 93 are basaltic in composition all originating from Iceland. Specifically, 43 originate from Grimsv € otn, 20 are thought to be sourced from the Katla volcanic system and 17 show affinity to the Kverkfj € oll system. Robust geochemical characterisations, independent ages derived from the GICC05 ice-core chronology, and the stratigraphic positions of these deposits relative to the Dansgaard-Oeschger climate events represent a key framework that provides new information on the frequency and nature of volcanic events in the North Atlantic region between GS-3 and GI-12. Of particular importance are 19 tephra deposits that lie on the rapid climatic transitions that punctuate the last glacial period. This framework of well-constrained, time-synchronous tie-lines represents an important step towards the independent synchronisation of marine, terrestrial and ice-core records from the North Atlantic region, in order to assess the phasing of rapid climatic changes during the last glacial period.

Quaternary uplift rates of the Central Anatolian Plateau, Turkey: insights from cosmogenic isochron-burial nuclide dating of the Kızılırmak River terraces

The Central Anatolian Plateau (CAP) in Turkey is a relatively small plateau (300 × 400 km) with moderate average elevations of ∼1 km situated between the Pontide and Tauride orogenic mountain belts. Kızılırmak, which is the longest river (1355 km) within the borders of Turkey, flows within the CAP and slowly incises into lacustrine and volcaniclastic units before finally reaching the Black Sea. We dated the Cappadocia section of the Kızılırmak terraces in the CAP by using cosmogenic burial and isochron-burial dating methods with 10Be and 26Al as their absolute dating can provide insight into long-term incision rates, uplift and climatic changes. Terraces at 13, 20, 75 and 100 m above the current river indicate an average incision rate of 0.051 ± 0.01 mm/yr (51 ± 1 m/Ma) since ∼1.9 Ma. Using the base of a basalt fill above the modern course of the Kızılırmak, we also calculated 0.05–0.06 mm/yr mean incision and hence rock uplift rate for the last 2 Ma. Although this rate might be underestimated due to normal faulting along the valley sides, it perfectly matches our results obtained from the Kızılırmak terraces. Although up to 5–10 times slower, the Quaternary uplift of the CAP is closely related to the uplift of the northern and southern plateau margins respectively.

Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation.

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident.

Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management

The main goals of this study were to identifythe alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.

Untangling a Holocene pollen record with forest model simulations and independent climate data

Adaptation potential of forests to rapid climatic changes can be assessed from vegetation dynamics during past climatic changes as preserved in fossil pollen data. However, pollen data reflect the integrated effects of climate and biotic processes, such as establishment, survival, competition, and migration. To disentangle these processes, we compared an annually laminated late Würm and Holocene pollen record from the Central Swiss Plateau with simulations of a dynamic forest patch model. All input data used in the simulations were largely independent from pollen data; i.e. the presented analysis is non-circular. Temperature and precipitation scenarios were based on reconstructions from pollen-independent sources. The earliest arrival times of the species at the study site after the last glacial were inferred from pollen maps. We ran a series of simulations under different combinations of climate and immigration scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity of the simulated presence/absence of four major species to changes in the climate scenario was examined. The pattern of the pollen record could partly be explained by the used climate scenario, mostly by temperature. However, some features, in particular the absence of most species during the late Würm could only be simulated if the winter temperature anomalies of the used scenario were decreased considerably. Consequently, we had to assume in the simulations, that most species immigrated during or after the Younger Dryas (12 000 years BP), Abies and Fagus even later. Given the timing of tree species immigration, the vegetation was in equilibrium with climate during long periods, but responded with lags at the time-scale of centuries to millennia caused by a secondary succession after rapid climatic changes such as at the end of Younger Dryas, or immigration of dominant taxa. Climate influenced the tree taxa both directly and indirectly by changing inter-specific competition. We concluded, that also during the present fast climatic change, species migration might be an important process, particularly if geographic barriers, such as the Alps are in the migrational path.

The Interaction Between Forest Fires and Human Activity in Southern Switzerland

The impact of human activities on the fire regime in southern Switzerland was studied using (pre)historical charcoal and pollen data from lake sediments and statistical data from the 20th century. The cultural impact on forest fire was established by correlating charcoal-influx data with pollen percentages of anthropogenic indicators such as Plantago lanceolata, the Cerealia (sum of Avena t., Triticum t. and Hordeum t.) and Secale. During the 20th century, fire frequency was correlated with precipitation, dry and very dry periods and landscape management indicators. The effects of human activity on the fire regime are clearly recognisable since at least the Neolithic period. Using palaeoecological or statistical data, the variations in fire regime originating from anthropogenic actions may be differentiated from those due to climatic changes if they are sufficiently conspicuous.

Oxygen isotopes of lake marl at Gerzensee and Leysin (Switzerland), covering the Younger Dryas and two minor oscillations, and their correlation to the GRIP ice core

The ratio of oxygen isotopes is a temperature proxy both in precipitation and in the calcite of lacustrine sediments. The very similar oxygen-isotope records from Greenland ice cores and European lake sediments during the Last Glacial Termination suggest that the drastic climatic changes occurred quasi-simultaneously on an extra-regional, probably hemispheric scale. In order to study temporal relations of the different parameters recorded in lake sediments, for example biotic response times to rapid climatic changes, a precise chronology is required. In unlaminated lake sediments there is not yet available a method to provide a high-resolution chronology, especially for periods with radiocarbon plateaux. Alternatively, an indirect time scale can be constructed by linking the lake stratigraphy with other well-dated climate records. New oxygen-isotope records from Gerzensee and Leysin, with an estimated sampling resolution of between 15 and 40 years, match the Greenlandic isotope record in many details. Under the assumption that the main variations in temperature and thus in oxygen isotopes occurred about simultaneously in Greenland and Switzerland, we have assigned a time scale to the lake sediments of Gerzensee and Leysin by wiggle-matching their stable-isotope records with those of Greenland ice cores, which are among the best dated climatic archives. We estimate a precision of 20 to 100 years during the Last Glacial Termination.

Planktonic and benthic stables Isotopes, age model and carbon analysis of HUD91/039 from the northernmost Baffin Bay

A multiproxy study of palaeoceanographic and climatic changes in northernmost Baffin Bay shows that major environmental changes have occurred since the deglaciation of the area at about 12 500 cal. yr BP. The interpretation is based on sedimentology, benthic and planktonic foraminifera and their isotopic composition, as well as diatom assemblages in the sedimentary records at two core sites, one located in the deeper central part of northernmost Baffin Bay and one in a separate trough closer to the Greenland coast. A revised chronology for the two records is established on the basis of 15 previously published AMS 14C age determinations. A basal diamicton is overlain by laminated, fossil-free sediments. Our data from the early part of the fossiliferous record (12 300 - 11 300 cal. yr BP), which is also initially laminated, indicate extensive seasonal sea-ice cover and brine release. There is indication of a cooling event between 11 300 and 10 900 cal. yr BP, and maximum Atlantic Water influence occurred between 10 900 and 8200 cal. yr BP (no sediment recovery between 8200 and 7300 cal. yr BP). A gradual, but fluctuating, increase in sea-ice cover is seen after 7300 cal. yr BP. Sea-ice diatoms were particularly abundant in the central part of northernmost Baffin Bay, presumably due to the inflow of Polar waters from the Arctic Ocean, and less sea ice occurred at the near-coastal site, which was under continuous influence of the West Greenland Current. Our data from the deep, central part show a fluctuating degree of upwelling after c. 7300 cal. yr BP, culminating between 4000 and 3050 cal. yr BP. There was a gradual increase in the influence of cold bottom waters from the Arctic Ocean after about 3050 cal. yr BP, when agglutinated foraminifera became abundant. A superimposed short-term change in the sea-surface proxies is correlated with the Little Ice Age cooling.

Stable oxygen isotope record of Globigerinoides sacculifer and age determination of sediment cores from teh Somali Basin

This study documents the biological signatures impressed upon the sedimentary record underlying both the 5°N upwelling system of the Somali Current and the equatorial area of the Somali Basin out of the upwelling influence. The evolution of these two distinct hydrographic systems is compared for the last 160 kyr. Correspondence and cluster analyses are performed on combined radiolarian and planktonic foraminiferal quantitative data in order to study the changes of the planktonic assemblages through time and space. The Upwelling Radiolarian Index (URI) is used as a productivity proxy. The water temperature and hydrographic structure of the upper water masses appear to be the major factors controlling the distribution patterns of the fauna. The relative abundances of three groups of foraminifera, cold water form (dextral N. pachyderma), mixed layer dwellers (G. trilobus, G. ruber, G. sacculifer, G. conglobatus, and G. glutinata), and thermocline dwellers (G. menardii, G. tumida, N. dutertrei, G. crassaformis, and P. obliquiloculata), follow distinct evolutionary patterns at the two sites during the last 160 kyr. At the equatorial site (core MD 85668), downcore fluctuations in the relative abundances of the three groups are closely related to the glacial/interglacial cyclicity and provide some insights into the interpretation of hydrographic changes. The dominance of the mixed layer foraminifera at the transition intervals between isotope stages 6/5 and 2/1, combined with weak URI values, is thought to reflect the reorganization of the oceanographic circulation. These short-term events (with a duration of < 5000 year) could be related to the rapid inflow of oxygen-depleted water through the Indonesian straits as a result of sea level rise during deglaciation. Underneath the 5°N gyre (core MD 85674), the response to global climatic changes is overprinted by the regional effect of the Somalian upwelling, which has been persistent over the last 160 kyr.

Mineralogy and age determination of sediment core D11957P

The Tore Seamount is a circular, volcano-like feature 100 km in diameter with its summit at 2200 m water depth and a small, 5000 m deep basin in its interior. It is situated approximately 300 km west of Lisbon and is surrounded by deep abyssal plains. This site with a standard pelagic stratigraphy is the southernmost point where the so-called Heinrich events have so far been recorded. A succession of alternating interglacial/glacial periods reveals a stratigraphic record back to the beginning of isotopic stage 7 (225 kyr). Climatic changes are identifiable by coherent variations in colour, carbonate content and distribution of ice-rafted detritus in the carbonate-free fraction. Inputs of ice-rafted quartz are well defined. Characteristics in common with other sites showing Heinrich layers include a high terrigenous to biogenic ratio, a dramatic decrease in the accumulation rate of foraminifera shells, an increase in dolomite abundance and the occurrence of polar foraminiferal species indicating southwards penetration of cold waters which lead us to consider a wider southeastern extent of the North Atlantic ice-rafted detritus belt than hitherto. If the presently accepted position of the Polar Front is maintained, icebergs must have been swept southwards from the southern boundary of the pack ice in a current merging into the ancestral Canary Current, bringing ice-rafted material to the Tore Seamount. The coincidence of reddish-feldspar, probably derived from the northern Appalachian Triassic red facies, with the transparent quartz suggests at least a partial Labrador source for all the Heinrich layers here, including HL 3. In comparison to other sites in the entire North Atlantic, two exceptions stand out: the absence of HL 5 and the low detritus to biogenics ratio for HL 3. The simultaneous occurrence of these two types of ice-rafted minerals is a new piece in the puzzle of the origin of Heinrich layers.

Mineralogical and geochemical data from five lake sediment cores of Lake Donggi Cona

Sediments of Lake Donggi Cona on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau were studied to infer changes in the lacustrine depositional environment, related to climatic and non-climatic changes during the last 19 kyr. The lake today fills a 30 X 8 km big and 95 m deep tectonic basin, associated with the Kunlun Fault. The study was conducted on a sediment-core transect through the lake basin, in order to gain a complete picture of spatiotemporal environmental change. The recovered sediments are partly finely laminated and are composed of calcareous muds with variable amounts of carbonate micrite, organic matter, detrital silt and clay. On the basis of sedimentological, geochemical, and mineralogical data up to five lithological units (LU) can be distinguished that document distinct stages in the development of the lake system. The onset of the lowermost LU with lacustrine muds above basal sands indicates that lake level was at least 39 m below the present level and started to rise after 19 ka, possibly in response to regional deglaciation. At this time, the lacustrine environment was characterized by detrital sediment influx and the deposition of siliciclastic sediment. In two sediment cores, upward grain-size coarsening documents a lake-level fall after 13 cal ka BP, possibly associated with the late-glacial Younger Dryas stadial. From 11.5 to 4.3 cal ka BP, grainsize fining in sediment cores from the profundal coring sites and the onset of lacustrine deposition at a litoral core site (2m water depth) in a recent marginal bay of Donggi Cona document lake-level rise during the early tomid-Holocene to at least modern level. In addition, high biological productivity and pronounced precipitation of carbonate micrites are consistent with warm and moist climate conditions related to an enhanced influence of summer monsoon. At 4.3 cal ka BP the lake system shifted from an aragonite- to a calcite-dominated system, indicating a change towards a fully open hydrological lake system. The younger clay-rich sediments are moreover non-laminated and lack any diagenetic sulphides, pointing to fully ventilated conditions, and the prevailing absence of lake stratification. This turning point in lake history could imply either a threshold response to insolation-forced climate cooling or a response to a non-climatic trigger, such as an erosional event or a tectonic pulse that induced a strong earthquake, which is difficult to decide from our data base.

Dust record from the EPICA Dome C ice core, Antarctica, covering 0 to 800 kyr BP

Dust can affect the radiative balance of the atmosphere by absorbing or reflecting incoming solar radiation and it can be a source of micronutrients, such as iron, to the ocean. It has been suggested that production, transport, and deposition of dust is influenced by climatic changes on glacial-interglacial timescales. Here we present a high-resolution aeolian dust record from the EPICA Dome C ice core in East Antarctica, which provides an undisturbed climate sequence over the last eight climatic cycles. We find that there is a significant correlation between dust flux and temperature records during glacial periods that is absent during interglacial periods. Our data suggests that dust flux is increasingly correlated with Antarctic temperature as climate becomes colder. We interpret this as progressive coupling of Antarctic and lower latitudes climate. Limited changes in glacial-interglacial atmospheric transport time Mahowald et al. (1999, doi:10.1029/1999JD900084), Jouzel et al. (2007, doi:10.1126/science.1141038), and Werner et al. (2002, doi:10.1029/2002JD002365) suggest that the sources and lifetime of dust are the major factors controlling the high glacial dust input. We propose that the observed ~25-fold increase in glacial dust flux over all eight glacial periods can be attributed to a strengthening of South American dust sources, together with a longer atmospheric dust particle life-time in the upper troposphere resulting from a reduced hydrological cycle during the ice ages.

Nitrogen isotopic and opal record of sediments in the Gulf of California

High-resolution records of the nitrogen isotopic composition of organic matter (d15Norg), opal content, and opal accumulation rates from the central Gulf of California reveal large and abrupt variations during deglaciation and gradual Holocene changes coincident with climatic changes recorded in the North Atlantic. Homogenous sediments with relatively low d15Norg values and low opal content were deposited at the end of the last glacial period, during the Younger-Dryas event, and during the middle to late Holocene. In contrast, laminated sediments deposited in the two deglacial stages are characterized by very high d15Norg values (>14 per mil) and opal accumulation rates (29-41 mg/cm**2/yr). Abrupt shifts in d15Norg were driven by widespread changes in the extent of suboxic subsurface waters supporting denitrification and were amplified in the central gulf record due to variations in upwelling, vertical mixing, and/or the latitudinal position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone.