Bjerknes compensation and the decadal variability of the energy transports in a coupled climate model

In the 1960s, Jacob Bjerknes suggested that if the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes and the oceanic heat storage did not vary too much, then the total energy transport by the climate system would not vary too much either. This implies that any large anomalies of oceanic and atmospheric energy transport should be equal and opposite. This simple scenario has become known as Bjerknes compensation. A long control run of the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3) has been investigated. It was found that northern extratropical decadal anomalies of atmospheric and oceanic energy transports are significantly anticorrelated and have similar magnitudes, which is consistent with the predictions of Bjerknes compensation. ne degree of compensation in the northern extratropics was found to increase with increasing, time scale. Bjerknes compensation did not occur in the Tropics, primarily as large changes in the surface fluxes were associated with large changes in the TOA fluxes. In the ocean, the decadal variability of the energy transport is associated with fluctuations in the meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. A stronger Atlantic Ocean energy transport leads to strong warming of surface temperatures in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Seas. which results in a reduced equator-to-pole surface temperature gradient and reduced atmospheric baroclinicity. It is argued that a stronger Atlantic Ocean energy transport leads to a weakened atmospheric transient energy transport.

On the variability of the surface environment response to synoptic forcing over complex terrain: a multivariate data analysis approach

Synoptic climatology relates the atmospheric circulation with the surface environment. The aim of this study is to examine the variability of the surface meteorological patterns, which are developing under different synoptic scale categories over a suburban area with complex topography. Multivariate Data Analysis techniques were performed to a data set with surface meteorological elements. Three principal components related to the thermodynamic status of the surface environment and the two components of the wind speed were found. The variability of the surface flows was related with atmospheric circulation categories by applying Correspondence Analysis. Similar surface thermodynamic fields develop under cyclonic categories, which are contrasted with the anti-cyclonic category. A strong, steady wind flow characterized by high shear values develops under the cyclonic Closed Low and the anticyclonic H–L categories, in contrast to the variable weak flow under the anticyclonic Open Anticyclone category.

Climatic control of the biomass-burning decline in the Americas after AD 1500

The significance and cause of the decline in biomass burning across the Americas after AD 1500 is a topic of considerable debate. We synthesized charcoal records (a proxy for biomass burning) from the Americas and from the remainder of the globe over the past 2000 years, and compared these with paleoclimatic records and population reconstructions. A distinct post-AD 1500 decrease in biomass burning is evident, not only in the Americas, but also globally, and both are similar in duration and timing to ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change. There is temporal and spatial variability in the expression of the biomass-burning decline across the Americas but, at a regional–continental scale, ‘Little Ice Age’ climate change was likely more important than indigenous population collapse in driving this decline.

Variability of the subtropical shelf front off eastern South America: Winter 2003 and summer 2004

Hydrographic data collected during surveys carried out in austral winter 2003 and summer 2004 are used to analyze the distributions of temperature (T) and salinity (S) over the continental shelf and slope of eastern South America between 27 degrees S and 39 degrees S. The water mass structure and the characteristics of the transition between subantarctic and subtropical shelf water (STSW), referred to as the subtropical shelf front (STSF), as revealed by the vertical structure of temperature and salinity are discussed. During both surveys, the front intensifies downward and extends southwestward from the near coastal zone at 33 degrees S to the shelf break at 36 degrees S. In austral winter subantarctic shelf water (SASW), derived from the northern Patagonia shelf, forms a vertically coherent cold wedge of low salinity waters that locally separate the outer shelf STSW from the fresher inner shelf Plata Plume Water (PPW) derived from the Rio de la Plata. Winter T-S diagrams and cross-shelf T and S distributions indicate that mixtures of PPW and tropical water only occur beyond the northernmost extent of pure SASW, and form STSW and an inverted thermocline characteristic of this region. In summer 2004, dilution of Tropical water (TW) occurs at two distinct levels: a warm near surface layer, associated to PPW-TW mixtures, similar to but significantly warmer than winter STSW, and a colder (T similar to 16 degrees C) salinity minimum layer at 40-50 m depth, created by SASW-STSW mixtures across the STSF. In winter, the salinity distribution controls the density structure creating a cross-shore density gradient, which prevents isopycnal mixing across the STSF. Temperature stratification in summer induces a sharp pycnocline providing cross-shelf isopycnal connections across the STSF. Cooling and freshening of the upper layer observed at stations collected along the western edge of the Brazil Current suggest offshore export of shelf waters. Low T and S filaments, evident along the shelf break in the winter data, suggest that submesoscale eddies may enhance the property exchange across the shelf break. These observations suggest that as the subsurface shelf waters converge at the STSF, they flow southward along the front and are expelled offshore, primarily along the front axis. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mean and Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean in the CCSM4

This study analyzes important aspects of the tropical Atlantic Ocean from simulations of the fourth version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4): the mean sea surface temperature (SST) and wind stress, the Atlantic warm pools, the principal modes of SST variability, and the heat budget in the Benguela region. The main goal was to assess the similarities and differences between the CCSM4 simulations and observations. The results indicate that the tropical Atlantic overall is realistic in CCSM4. However, there are still significant biases in the CCSM4 Atlantic SSTs, with a colder tropical North Atlantic and a hotter tropical South Atlantic, that are related to biases in the wind stress. These are also reflected in the Atlantic warm pools in April and September, with its volume greater than in observations in April and smaller than in observations in September. The variability of SSTs in the tropical Atlantic is well represented in CCSM4. However, in the equatorial and tropical South Atlantic regions, CCSM4 has two distinct modes of variability, in contrast to observed behavior. A model heat budget analysis of the Benguela region indicates that the variability of the upper-ocean temperature is dominated by vertical advection, followed by meridional advection.

Sea-Level climate variability in the Mediterranean Sea

Sea-level variability is characterized by multiple interacting factors described in the Fourth Assessment Report (Bindoff et al., 2007) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that act over wide spectra of temporal and spatial scales. In Church et al. (2010) sea-level variability and changes are defined as manifestations of climate variability and change. The European Environmental Agency (EEA) defines sea level as one of most important indicators for monitoring climate change, as it integrates the response of different components of the Earths system and is also affected by anthropogenic contributions (EEA, 2011). The balance between the different sea-level contributions represents an important source of uncertainty, involving stochastic processes that are very difficult to describe and understand in detail, to the point that they are defined as an enigma in Munk (2002). Sea-level rate estimates are affected by all these uncertainties, in particular if we look at possible responses to sea-level contributions to future climate. At the regional scale, lateral fluxes also contribute to sea-level variability, adding complexity to sea-level dynamics. The research strategy adopted in this work to approach such an interesting and challenging topic has been to develop an objective methodology to study sea-level variability at different temporal and spatial scales, applicable in each part of the Mediterranean basin in particular, and in the global ocean in general, using all the best calibrated sources of data (for the Mediterranean): in-situ, remote-sensig and numerical models data. The global objective of this work was to achieve a deep understanding of all of the components of the sea-level signal contributing to sea-level variability, tendency and trend and to quantify them.

A study of air-sea interaction processes on water mass formation and upwelling in the Mediterranean sea

Air-sea interactions are a key process in the forcing of the ocean circulation and the climate. Water Mass Formation is a phenomenon related to extreme air-sea exchanges and heavy heat losses by the water column, being capable to transfer water properties from the surface to great depth and constituting a fundamental component of the thermohaline circulation of the ocean. Wind-driven Coastal Upwelling, on the other hand, is capable to induce intense heat gain in the water column, making this phenomenon important for climate change; further, it can have a noticeable influence on many biological pelagic ecosystems mechanisms. To study some of the fundamental characteristics of Water Mass Formation and Coastal Upwelling phenomena in the Mediterranean Sea, physical reanalysis obtained from the Mediterranean Forecating System model have been used for the period ranging from 1987 to 2012. The first chapter of this dissertation gives the basic description of the Mediterranean Sea circulation, the MFS model implementation, and the air-sea interaction physics. In the second chapter, the problem of Water Mass Formation in the Mediterranean Sea is approached, also performing ad-hoc numerical simulations to study heat balance components. The third chapter considers the study of Mediterranean Coastal Upwelling in some particular areas (Sicily, Gulf of Lion, Aegean Sea) of the Mediterranean Basin, together with the introduction of a new Upwelling Index to characterize and predict upwelling features using only surface estimates of air-sea fluxes. Our conclusions are that latent heat flux is the driving air-sea heat balance component in the Water Mass Formation phenomenon, while sensible heat exchanges are fundamental in Coastal Upwelling process. It is shown that our upwelling index is capable to reproduce the vertical velocity patterns in Coastal Upwelling areas. Nondimensional Marshall numbers evaluations for the open-ocean convection process in the Gulf of Lion show that it is a fully turbulent, three-dimensional phenomenon.

Climate variability of the mid- and high-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in ensemble simulations from 1500 to 2000 AD

To increase the sparse knowledge of long-term Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability, we assess an ensemble of 4 transient simulations over the last 500 yr performed with a state-of-the-art atmosphere ocean general circulation model. The model is forced with reconstructions of solar irradiance, greenhouse gas (GHG) and volcanic aerosol concentrations. A 1990 control simulation shows that the model is able to represent the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and to some extent the South Pacific Dipole (SPD) and the Zonal Wave 3 (ZW3). During the past 500 yr we find that SPD and ZW3 variability remain stable, whereas SAM shows a significant shift towards its positive state during the 20th century. Regional temperatures over South America are strongly influenced by changing both GHG concentrations and volcanic eruptions, whereas precipitation shows no significant response to the varying external forcing. For temperature this stands in contrast to proxy records, suggesting that SH climate is dominated by internal variability rather than external forcing. The underlying dynamics of the temperature changes generally point to a combination of several modes, thus, hampering the possibilities of regional reconstructing the modes from proxy records. The linear imprint of the external forcing is as expected, i.e. a warming for increase in the combined solar and GHG forcing and a cooling after volcanic eruptions. Dynamically, only the increase in SAM with increased combined forcing is simulated.

Climatic variability during the last interglacial inferred from geochemical proxies in the Lake El'gygytgyn sediment record

The Last Interglacial Period (LIP) is often regarded as a good analogue for potential climatic conditions under predicted global warming scenarios. Despite this, there is still debate over the nature, duration and frequency of climatic changes during this period. One particularly contentious issue has been the apparent evidence of climatic instability identified in many marine cores but seemingly lacking from many terrestrial archives, especially within the Arctic, a key region for global climate change research. In this paper, geochemical records from Lake El'gygytgyn, north-eastern Russia, are used to infer past climatic changes during the LIP from within the high Arctic. With a sampling resolution of ~20–~90 years, these records offer the potential for detailed, high-resolution palaeoclimate reconstruction. This study shows that the LIP commenced in central Chukotka ~129 thousand years ago (ka), with the warmest climatic conditions occurring between ~128 and 127 ka before being interrupted by a short-lived cold reversal. Mild climatic conditions then persisted until ~122 ka when a marked reduction in the sedimentation rate suggests a decrease in precipitation. A further climatic deterioration at ~118 ka marks the return to glacial conditions. This study highlights the value of incorporating several geochemical proxies when inferring past climatic conditions, thus providing the potential to identify signals related to environmental change within the catchment. We also demonstrate the importance of considering how changes in sedimentation rate influence proxy records, in order to develop robust palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.

The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink

The growth rate of atmospheric carbondioxide(CO2) concentrations since industrialization is characterized by large interannual variability, mostly resulting from variability in CO 2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems (typically termed carbon sink). However, the contributions of regional ecosystems to that variability are not well known. Using an ensemble of ecosystem and land-surface models and an empirical observation-based product of global gross primary production, we show that the mean sink, trend, and interannual variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by distinct biogeographic regions. Whereas the mean sink is dominated by highly productive lands (mainly tropical forests), the trend and interannual variability of the sink are dominated by semi-arid ecosystems whose carbon balance is strongly associated with circulation-driven variations in both precipitation and temperature.

Salient features of the coronary collateral circulation and its clinical relevance

The coronary collateral circulation provides an alternative source of blood supply to myocardium jeopardised by ischaemia. Collaterals enlarge with obstructive coronary artery disease to allow bulk flow, but blood flow deliverable by the native, pre-formed collateral extent can already be sizeable. Genetic determinants contribute significantly to the wide variability observed in both native collateral extent and its capacity to enlarge, and the severity of the coronary stenosis is the most significant environmental determinant for collateral enlargement. The protective effect of a well-developed coronary collateral circulation translates into relevant improvements in all-cause and cardiac mortality in the acute and chronic phases of coronary artery disease, as well as into a reduction of future adverse cardiovascular events.

Variability of the Brazil Current during the late Holocene analysed on two marine sediment cores

Our understanding of the centennial-scale variability of the Brazil Current (BC) during the late Holocene is elusive because of the lack of appropriate records. Here we used the Mg/Ca and oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera from two marine sediment cores collected at 27° S and 33° S off southeastern South America to assess the late Holocene variability in the upper water column of the BC. Our results show in phase fluctuations of up to 3 °C in sea surface temperatures (SST), and 0.8 per mil in oxygen isotopic composition of surface sea water, a proxy for relative sea surface salinity (SSS). Time-series analyses of our records indicate a cyclicity with a period of ca. 730 yr. We suggest that the observed cyclicity reflects variability in the strength of the BC associated to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Positive (negative) SST and SSS anomalies are related to a strong (weak) BC and a weak (strong) AMOC. Moreover, periods of peak strength in the BC occur synchronously to a weak North Brazil Current, negative SST anomalies in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic, and positive (negative) precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America (equatorial Africa), further corroborating our hypothesis. This study shows a tight coupling between the variability of the BC and the high latitudes of the North Atlantic mediated by the AMOC even under late Holocene boundary conditions.

Late Pliocene stable oxygen isotope record of the Mediterranean Sea

Detailed pollen analyses and oxygen isotope records of three foraminiferal species, Globigerina bulloides, Uvigerina peregrina and Cibicides pachyderma, from the Semaforo and Vrica composite sections (Crotone, southern Italy) have been compared to the global climatic changes depicted by late Pliocene-early Pleistocene foraminiferal d18O records of Site 607 in the North Atlantic, and Hole 653A in the Tyrrhenian basin, West Mediterranean. Major overturns in the mid-altitude vegetation are shown near isotopic stages 82, 60, 58 and 50, at about 2.03 Ma, 1.6 Ma and 1.37 Ma according to the Raymo et al. (1989, doi:10.1029/PA004i004p00413) and Ruddiman et al. (1989, doi:10.1029/PA004i004p00353) timescales. At the same dates, glacial 18O maxima either became higher or display step increases in the western Mediterranean or in the open ocean as well. This suggests that size increases of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets were the driving factor for regional or local marine and continental environmental changes within the Mediterranean basin. Near isotopic stages 62-60, close to the conventional Plio-Pleistocene boundary, the climatic conditions severed enough within the Mediterranean basin to modify the continental environment, as depicted by a sudden increase of Artemisia percentages, while the first significant southward migration of the North Polar Front may have been recorded by an influx of left coiling Neogloboquadrina pachyderma in the central Mediterranean. It also appears that 'Boreal Guests' entered the Mediterranean during phases of 18O enrichment of foraminiferal calcite. There does not seem to be any discrepancy between the climatic concept of the Pliocene-Pleistocene boundary and its chronostratigraphic definition.