Climate justice in a carbon budget

The fact of a carbon budget given commitment to limiting global-mean temperature increase to below 2��C warming relative to pre-industrial levels makes CO2 emissions a scarce resource. This fact has significant consequences for the ethics of climate change. The paper highlights some of these consequences with respect to (a) applying principles of distributive justice to the allocation of rights to emissions and the costs of mitigation and adaptation, (b) compensation for the harms and risks of climate change, (c) radical new ideas about a place for criminal justice in tackling climate change, and (d) catastrophe ethics.

Towards improving the framework for probabilistic forecast evaluation

The evaluation of forecast performance plays a central role both in the interpretation and use of forecast systems and in their development. Different evaluation measures (scores) are available, often quantifying different characteristics of forecast performance. The properties of several proper scores for probabilistic forecast evaluation are contrasted and then used to interpret decadal probability hindcasts of global mean temperature. The Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), Proper Linear (PL) score, and IJ Good���s logarithmic score (also referred to as Ignorance) are compared; although information from all three may be useful, the logarithmic score has an immediate interpretation and is not insensitive to forecast busts. Neither CRPS nor PL is local; this is shown to produce counter intuitive evaluations by CRPS. Benchmark forecasts from empirical models like Dynamic Climatology place the scores in context. Comparing scores for forecast systems based on physical models (in this case HadCM3, from the CMIP5 decadal archive) against such benchmarks is more informative than internal comparison systems based on similar physical simulation models with each other. It is shown that a forecast system based on HadCM3 out performs Dynamic Climatology in decadal global mean temperature hindcasts; Dynamic Climatology previously outperformed a forecast system based upon HadGEM2 and reasons for these results are suggested. Forecasts of aggregate data (5-year means of global mean temperature) are, of course, narrower than forecasts of annual averages due to the suppression of variance; while the average ���distance��� between the forecasts and a target may be expected to decrease, little if any discernible improvement in probabilistic skill is achieved.

The EarthCARE satellite: the next step forward in global measurements of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation

The collective representation within global models of aerosol, cloud, precipitation, and their radiative properties remains unsatisfactory. They constitute the largest source of uncertainty in predictions of climatic change and hamper the ability of numerical weather prediction models to forecast high-impact weather events. The joint European Space Agency (ESA)���Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) Earth Clouds, Aerosol and Radiation Explorer (EarthCARE) satellite mission, scheduled for launch in 2018, will help to resolve these weaknesses by providing global profiles of cloud, aerosol, precipitation, and associated radiative properties inferred from a combination of measurements made by its collocated active and passive sensors. EarthCARE will improve our understanding of cloud and aerosol processes by extending the invaluable dataset acquired by the A-Train satellites CloudSat, Cloud���Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO), and Aqua. Specifically, EarthCARE���s cloud profiling radar, with 7 dB more sensitivity than CloudSat, will detect more thin clouds and its Doppler capability will provide novel information on convection, precipitating ice particle, and raindrop fall speeds. EarthCARE���s 355-nm high-spectral-resolution lidar will measure directly and accurately cloud and aerosol extinction and optical depth. Combining this with backscatter and polarization information should lead to an unprecedented ability to identify aerosol type. The multispectral imager will provide a context for, and the ability to construct, the cloud and aerosol distribution in 3D domains around the narrow 2D retrieved cross section. The consistency of the retrievals will be assessed to within a target of ��10 W m���2 on the (10 km)2 scale by comparing the multiview broadband radiometer observations to the top-of-atmosphere fluxes estimated by 3D radiative transfer models acting on retrieved 3D domains.

The effectiveness of protected areas in the conservation of species with changing geographical ranges

A cornerstone of conservation is the designation and management of protected areas (PAs): locations often under conservation management containing species of conservation concern, where some development and other detrimental influences are prevented or mitigated. However, the value of PAs for conserving biodiversity in the long term has been questioned given that species are changing their distributions in response to climatic change. There is a concern that PAs may become climatically unsuitable for those species that they were designated to protect, and may not be located appropriately to receive newly-colonizing species for which the climate is improving. In the present study, we analyze fine-scale distribution data from detailed resurveys of seven butterfly and 11 bird species in Great Britain aiming to examine any effect of PA designation in preventing extinctions and promoting colonizations. We found a positive effect of PA designation on species' persistence at trailing-edge warm range margins, although with a decreased magnitude at higher latitudes and altitudes. In addition, colonizations by range expanding species were more likely to occur on PAs even after altitude and latitude were taken into account. PAs will therefore remain an important strategy for conservation. The potential for PA management to mitigate the effects of climatic change for retracting species deserves further investigation.

Integrating archaeology and palaeoecology to understand J�� landscapes in southern Brazil

Around AD 1000, the southern Brazilian highlands witnessed a convergence of phenomena: climatic change, the abrupt expansion of Araucaria forest and the appearance of large pit-houses and monumental mound and enclosure complexes, which signal fundamental socio-political and ideological change amongst southern proto-J�� (SPJ) groups. These developments raise intriguing questions regarding the relationships between people, vegetation and climate over the last 2000 years.

The distributional and nutritional impacts and mitigation potential of emission-based food taxes in the UK

Agriculture and food production are responsible for a substantial proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. An emission based food tax has been proposed as one option to reduce food related emissions. This study introduces a method to measure the impacts of emission based food taxes at a household level which involves the use of data augmentation to account for the fact that the data record purchases and not consumption. The method is applied to determine the distributional and nutritional impacts of an emission based food tax across socio-economic classes in the UK. We find that a tax of ��2.841/tCO2e on all foods would reduce food related emissions by 6.3% and a tax on foods with above average levels of emissions would reduce emissions by 4.3%. The tax burden falls disproportionately on households in the lowest socio-economic class because they tend to spend a larger proportion of their food expenditure on emission intensive foods and because they buy cheaper products and therefore experience relatively larger price increases.

Coalescent analysis of mtDNA indicates Pleistocene divergence among three species of howler monkey (Alouatta spp.) and population subdivision within the Atlantic Coastal Forest species, A. guariba

We have used coalescent analysis of mtDNA cytochrome b (cyt b) sequences to estimate times of divergence of three species of Alouatta-A. caraya, A. belzebul, and A. guariba-which are in close geographic proximity. A. caraya is inferred to have diverged from the A. guariba/A. belzebul clade approximately 3.83 million years ago (MYA), with the later pair diverging approximately 1.55 MYA. These dates are much more recent than previous dates based on molecular-clock methods. In addition, analyses of new sequences from the Atlantic Coastal Forest species A. guariba indicate the presence of two distinct haplogroups corresponding to northern and southern populations with both haplogroups occurring in sympatry within Sao Paulo state. The time of divergence of these two haplogroups is estimated to be 1.2 MYA and so follows quite closely after the divergence of A. guariba and A. belzebul. These more recent dates point to the importance of Pleistocene environmental events as important factors in the diversification of A. belzebul and A. guariba. We discuss the diversification of the three Alouatta species in the context of recent models of climatic change and with regard to recent molecular phylogeographic analyses of other animal groups distributed in Brazil.

Solar energy budgets in central Amazonian ecosystems: a comparison between natural forest and bare soil areas

In order to estimate the deforestation consequences on the actual solar energy budget of the Central Amazon Region, two ecosystems of different characteristics were compared. The present conditions of the region were represented by a typical 'terra firme' forest cover located at INPA's Ducke Forest Reserve, where the measurements necessary to evaluate its solar energy balance were carried out. The second ecosystem, simulating a deforested area, was represented by an area about 1.0 ha without natural vegetation and situated in the same Reserve. In this area lysimeters were placed, two of them filled with yellow latosol and two others with quartzose sand soil. Both soils are representative soils in the region. Their water balances were taken into account as well as the other parameters necessary to compute the solar energy balances. The results showed that water loss by evaporation was about 41.8% of the total precipitation in the yellow latosol lysimeters and about 26.4% for the quartzose sand ones. For the forest cover it was estimated an evapotranspiration of 67.9% of the rainfall amount. In relation to solar energy balance calculated for the forest cover, it was found that 83.1% of the total energy incoming to this ecosystem was used by the evapotranspiration process, while the remaining of 16.9% can be taken as sensible heat. For bare soils, 55.1% and 31.8% of the total energy were used as latent heat by yellow latosol and quartzose sand soils, respectively. So, the remaining amounts of 44.9% and 68.2% were related to sensible heat and available to atmospheric air heating of these ecosystems. Such results suggest that a large deforestation of the Amazon Region would have direct consequences on their water and solar radiation balances, with an expected change on the actual climatic conditions of the region. �� 1993.

Entre a ci��ncia, a m��dia e a sala de aula: contribui����es da geografia para o discurso das mudan��as clim��ticas globais

P��s-gradua����o em Geografia - FCT

Estudo dos potenciais impactos das mudan��as clim��ticas e de altera����es na cobertura vegetal nos recursos h��dricos na Regi��o Central da Amaz��nia

Este trabalho busca avaliar e quantificar os impactos na disponibilidade h��drica local na regi��o da Amaz��nia Central, decorrentes de poss��veis mudan��as clim��ticas e modifica����es na cobertura vegetal, por meio de um experimento de simula����o num��rica com o modelo de biosfera Common Land Model (CLM), no modo ���off line���. Os resultados de 9 modelos clim��ticos acoplados Oceano-Atmosfera para tr��s cen��rios de altera����es clim��ticas do Painel Intergovernamental sobre Mudan��as Clim��ticas (IPCC-AR4) foram utilizados para compor a base das for��antes clim��ticas do modelo de biosfera CLM. Em rela����o ao uso da terra, foram utilizados cen��rios de din��mica de desmatamento para a regi��o no caso ���business as usual��� previstos para cada ano do per��odo de 2001 a 2050. A ��rea de estudo compreende o dom��nio da drenagem da Bacia do Rio Cuieiras na Amaz��nia Central. A partir dos resultados dos modelos analisaram-se, para cada conjunto de simula����es, as incertezas das proje����es em rela����o �� precipita����o e a temperatura e o impacto no ciclo hidrol��gico terrestre, considerando a variabilidade entre os modelos e os cen��rios de emiss��es de CO2; bem como as altera����es nas componentes do balan��o de ��gua e energia a superf��cie associada a varia����es progressivas na cobertura de floresta e sua substitui����o por pastagem. Os resultados indicam que diante de um cen��rio de mudan��as clim��ticas que resultem em uma diminui����o (aumento) persistente na precipita����o m��dia anual, tanto o escoamento quanto o armazenamento de ��gua no solo ser��o diretamente afetados. Em rela����o ��s altera����es na cobertura vegetal tanto as componentes dos balan��os de ��gua e energia foram significativamente afetados pela substitui����o da floresta por pastagem, apresentando redu����o na evapotranspira����o e aumentos no armazenamento de ��gua no solo e do escoamento total.

Dry and wet seasons set the phytochemical profile of the Copaifera langsdorffii Desf. essential oils

Funda����o de Amparo �� Pesquisa do Estado de S��o Paulo (FAPESP)

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

Funda����o de Amparo �� Pesquisa do Estado de S��o Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelagem estratigr��fica do intervalo cenomaniano-turoniano, forma����es A��u e Janda��ra, na borda sudoeste da Bacia Potiguar

P��s-gradua����o em Geoci��ncias e Meio Ambiente - IGCE

NDVI and vegetation phenology dynamics under the influence of sunshine duration on the Tibetan plateau

Climate change has significantly influenced vegetation dynamics on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Past research mainly focused on vegetation responses to temperature variation and water stress, but the influence of sunshine duration on NDVI and vegetation phenology on the TP is not well understood. In this study, NDVI time series from 1982-2008 were used to retrieve spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics on the TP. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was conducted to understand the spatiotemporal variations of NDVI. The Start of Season (SOS) was estimated from NDVI time series with a local threshold method. The first EOF, accounting for 35.1% of NDVI variations on the TP, indicates that NDVI variations are larger in areas with shorter sunshine duration. The needle-leaved forest and shrub in the southeastern TP are more sensitive to sunshine duration anomalies (p < 0.01) than broad-leaved forest, steppe, and meadow due to spatial and altitudinal distribution of sunshine duration and vegetation types. The decrease in sunshine duration for the growing season on the TP has resulted in a decreased NDVI trend in some areas of southeastern TP (p ranging from 0.32-0.05 with threshold ranging from 0.05 to 0.25) in spite of the overall NDVI increase. SOS dynamics in most parts of the TP were mainly related to temperature variability, with precipitation and sunshine duration playing a role in a few regions. This study enhances our understanding of vegetation responses to climatic change on the TP.

Coffee growth, pest and yield responses to free-air CO2 enrichment

Coordena����o de Aperfei��oamento de Pessoal de N��vel Superior (CAPES)