Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

GLUT4 - At the cross roads between membrane trafficking and signal transduction

GLUT4 is a mammalian facilitative glucose transporter that is highly expressed in adipose tissue and striated muscle. In response to insulin, GLUT4 moves from intracellular storage areas to the plasma membrane, thus increasing cellular glucose uptake. While the verification of this 'translocation hypothesis' (Cushman SW. Wardzala LJ. J Biol Chem 1980;255: 4758-4762 and Suzuki K, Kono T. Proc Natl Acad Sci 1980;77: 2542-2545) has increased our understanding of insulin-regulated glucose transport, a number of fundamental questions remain unanswered. Where is GLUT4 stored within the basal cell? How does GLUT4 move to the cell surface and what mechanism does insulin employ to accelerate this process) Ultimately we require a convergence of trafficking studies with research in signal transduction. However, despite more than 30 years of intensive research we have still not reached this point. The problem is complex, involving at least two separate signal transduction pathways which feed into what appears to be a very dynamic sorting process. Below we discuss some of these complexities and highlight new data that are bringing us closer to the resolution of these questions.

Air target detection via bistatic radar based on LEOS communication signals

The paper discusses the bistatic radar parameters for the case when the transmitter is a satellite emitting communication signals. The model utilises signals from an Iridium-like low earth orbiting satellite system. The maximum detection range, when thermal noise-limited, is discussed at the theoretical level and these results are compared with experimentation. Satellite-radar signal levels and the power of ground reflections are evaluated.

Aggregated personality, climate and demographic factors as predictors of departmental shrinkage

The present study investigated how demographic, personality, and climate variables act to predict departmental theft. Participants in the current field survey were 153 employees from 17 departments across two stores. The results of confirmatory factor analyses supported the construct validity of the Big Five Inventory (John, Donahue, & Kentle, 1991) and the Occupational Climate Questionnaire (Furnham & Gunter, 1997) in UK work settings. The results of regression analysis indicate that the variability in departmental theft is accountable in terms of a linear combination of demographic, personality, and climate factors. We concluded that an expanded theoretical perspective (utilizing demographic, personality, and climate variables) explained more variance than might otherwise be expected from any single perspective. Indeed, climate, personality, and demographic variables operated legitimately at the departmental level. Finally, we explained aggregated personality as a form of social interaction which is the by-product of individual differences.

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological responses to recent climate change

There is now ample evidence of the ecological impacts of recent climate change, from polar terrestrial to tropical marine environments. The responses of both flora and fauna span an array of ecosystems and organizational hierarchies, from the species to the community levels. Despite continued uncertainty as to community and ecosystem trajectories under global change, our review exposes a coherent pattern of ecological change across systems. Although we are only at an early stage in the projected trends of global warming, ecological responses to recent climate change are already clearly visible.

Engineering closure of an open pit gold operation in a semi-arid climate

Along with material characteristics and geometry, the climate in which a mine is located can have a dramatic effect on the appropriate options for rehabilitation. The paper outlines the setting, mining, milling and waste disposal at Kidston Gold Mine's open pit operations in the semi-arid climate of North Queensland, Australia, before focusing on the engineering aspects of the rehabilitation of Kidston. The mine took a holistic and proactive approach to rehabilitation, and was prepared to demonstrate a number of innovative approaches, which are described in the paper. Engineering issues that had to be addressed included the geotechnical stability and deformation of waste rock dumps, including a 240 m high in-pit dump: the construction and performance monitoring of a “store and release” cover over potentially acid forming mineralised waste rock; erosion from the side slopes of the waste rock dumps; the in-pit co-disposal of waste rock and thickened tailings; the geotechnical stability of the tailings dam wall; the potential for erosion of bare tailings; the water balance of the tailings dam; direct revegetation of the tailings; and the pit hydrology. The rehabilitation of the mine represents an important benchmark in mine site rehabilitation best practice, from which lessons applicable worldwide can be shared.

Effects of habitat characteristics and climate on the distribution and colouration of Dusky Moorhens (Gallinula tenebrosa) in south-east Queensland

We determined which factors predict the presence and abundance of Dusky Moorhens (Gallinula tenebrosa) at wetlands by surveying the ecological and habitat characteristics of 62 sites across south-east Queensland. Moorhens were observed in 48 of the sites sampled. They were more likely to be found at sites surrounded by taller terrestrial vegetation and where free-floating and attached aquatic vegetation was more abundant. The number of moorhens found at a site increased in relation to vegetation height, the abundance of attached aquatic vegetation and the number of purple swamphens observed. These results suggest that there are ecological constraints on the distribution of moorhens, and that food abundance and the availability of suitable nesting sites determine the overall distribution and abundance of moorhens in wetlands. Adult moorhens develop brightly coloured fleshy frontal shields, bills and legs when breeding, although in some populations birds maintain year-round colouration. We observed year-round breeding colouration in 23 out of 34 sampling sites that had moorhens and were surveyed in August. Coloured moorhens were found during winter at sites with higher minimum winter temperatures, and more abundant free-floating and submerged leafy vegetation. In addition, higher proportions of moorhens were coloured at sites with higher mean minimum temperatures. The retention of year-round breeding colouration appears to be restricted to areas with warmer winter temperatures and more abundant food. The results suggest that areas not occupied by moorhens are of inadequate quality to support breeding populations. We suggest that ecological constraints on independent breeding in Dusky Moorhens may have favoured the evolution of their unusual cooperative breeding system, which involves frequent mate-sharing by both sexes.

New Zealand climate in the Neogene and implications for global atmospheric circulation

New Zealand has a good Neogene plant fossil record. During the Miocene it was without high topography and it was highly maritime, meaning that its climate, and the resulting vegetation, would be controlled dominantly by zonal climate conditions. Its vegetation record during this time suggests the climate passed from an ever-wet and cool but frostless phase in the Early Miocene in which Nothofagus subgenus Brassospora was prominent. Then it became seasonally dry, with vegetation in which palms and Eucalyptus were prominent and fires were frequent, and in the mid-Miocene, it developed a dry-climate vegetation dominated by Casuarinaceae. These changes are reflected in a sedimentological change from acidic to alkaline chemistry and the appearance of regular charcoal in the record. The vegetation then changed again to include a prominent herb component including Chenopodiaceae and Asteraceae. Sphagnum became prominent, and Nothofagus returned, but mainly as the subgenus Fuscospora (presently restricted to temperate climates). This is interpreted as a return to a generally wet, but now cold climate, in which outbreaks of cold polar air and frost were frequent. The transient drying out of a small maritime island and the accompanying vegetation/climate sequence could be explained by a higher frequency of the Sub-Tropical High Pressure (STHP) cells (the descending limbs of the Hadley cells) over New Zealand during the Miocene. This may have resulted from an increased frequency of 'blocking', a synoptic situation which occurs in the region today. An alternative hypothesis, that the global STHP belt lay at a significantly higher latitude in the early Neogene (perhaps 55degreesS) than today (about 30degreesS), is considered less likely because of physical constraints on STHP belt latitude. In either case, the difference between the early Neogene and present situation may have been a response to an increased polar-equatorial temperature gradient. This contrasts with current climate models for the geological past in which the latitude of the High Pressure belt impact is held invariant though geological time. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Computational differentiation of N-terminal signal peptides and transmembrane helices

Signal peptides and transmembrane helices both contain a stretch of hydrophobic amino acids. This common feature makes it difficult for signal peptide and transmembrane helix predictors to correctly assign identity to stretches of hydrophobic residues near the N-terminal methionine of a protein sequence. The inability to reliably distinguish between N-terminal transmembrane helix and signal peptide is an error with serious consequences for the prediction of protein secretory status or transmembrane topology. In this study, we report a new method for differentiating protein N-terminal signal peptides and transmembrane helices. Based on the sequence features extracted from hydrophobic regions (amino acid frequency, hydrophobicity, and the start position), we set up discriminant functions and examined them on non-redundant datasets with jackknife tests. This method can incorporate other signal peptide prediction methods and achieve higher prediction accuracy. For Gram-negative bacterial proteins, 95.7% of N-terminal signal peptides and transmembrane helices can be correctly predicted (coefficient 0.90). Given a sensitivity of 90%, transmembrane helices can be identified from signal peptides with a precision of 99% (coefficient 0.92). For eukaryotic proteins, 94.2% of N-terminal signal peptides and transmembrane helices can be correctly predicted with coefficient 0.83. Given a sensitivity of 90%, transmembrane helices can be identified from signal peptides with a precision of 87% (coefficient 0.85). The method can be used to complement current transmembrane protein prediction and signal peptide prediction methods to improve their prediction accuracies. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate of fear in organisational settings: Construct definition, measurement and a test of theory

This paper reports a study that explored a new construct: climate of fear. We hypothesised that climate of fear would vary across work sites within organisations, but not across organisations. This is in contrast a to measures of organisational culture, which were expected to vary both within and across organisations. To test our hypotheses, we developed a new 13-item measure of perceived fear in organisations and tested it in 20 sites across two organisations (N = 209). Culture variables measured were innovative leadership culture, and communication culture. Results were that climate of fear did vary across sites in both organisations, while differences across organisations were not significant, as we anticipated. Organisational culture, however, varied between the organisations, and within one of the organisations. The climate of fear scale exhibited acceptable psychometric properties.

Signal trait sexual dimorphism and mutual sexual selection in Drosophila serrata

The evolution of sexual dimorphism may occur when natural and sexual selection result in different optimum trait values for males and females. Perhaps the most prominent examples of sexual dimorphism occur in sexually selected traits, for which males usually display exaggerated trait levels, while females may show reduced expression of the trait. In some species, females also exhibit secondary sexual traits that may either be a consequence of a correlated response to sexual selection on males or direct sexual selection for female secondary sexual traits. In this experiment, we simultaneously measure the intersex genetic correlations and the relative strength of sexual selection on males and females for a set of cuticular hydrocarbons in Drosophila serrata. There was significant directional sexual selection on both male and female cuticular hydrocarbons: the strength of sexual selection did not differ among the sexes but males and females preferred different cuticular hydrocarbons. In contrast with many previous studies of sexual dimorphism, intersex genetic correlations were low. The evolution of sexual dimorphism in D. serrata appears to have been achieved by sex-limited expression of traits controlled by genes on the X chromosome and is likely to be in its final stages.

An advanced method for eliminating impacts from frequency deviations in power system signal processing

Frequency deviation is a common problem for power system signal processing. Many power system measurements are carried out in a fixed sampling rate assuming the system operates in its nominal frequency (50 or 60 Hz). However, the actual frequency may deviate from the normal value from time to time due to various reasons such as disturbances and subsequent system transients. Measurement of signals based on a fixed sampling rate may introduce errors under such situations. In order to achieve high precision signal measurement appropriate algorithms need to be employed to reduce the impact from frequency deviation in the power system data acquisition process. This paper proposes an advanced algorithm to enhance Fourier transform for power system signal processing. The algorithm is able to effectively correct frequency deviation under fixed sampling rate. Accurate measurement of power system signals is essential for the secure and reliable operation of power systems. The algorithm is readily applicable to such occasions where signal processing is affected by frequency deviation. Both mathematical proof and numerical simulation are given in this paper to illustrate robustness and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Crown Copyright (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.