862 resultados para Choquet expected utility
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PURPOSE: To investigate the utility of inversion recovery with ON-resonant water suppression (IRON) to create positive signal in normal lymph nodes after injection of superparamagnetic nanoparticles. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Experiments were conducted on six rabbits, which received a single bolus injection of 80 mumol Fe/kg monocrystalline iron oxide nanoparticle (MION-47). Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was performed at baseline, 1 day, and 3 days after MION-47 injection using conventional T(1)- and T(2)*-weighted sequences and IRON. Contrast-to-noise ratios (CNR) were measured in blood and in paraaortic lymph nodes. RESULTS: On T(2)*-weighted images, as expected, signal attenuation was observed in areas of paraaortic lymph nodes after MION-47 injection. However, using IRON the paraaortic lymph nodes exhibited very high contrast enhancement, which remained 3 days after injection. CNR with IRON was 2.2 +/- 0.8 at baseline, increased markedly 1 day after injection (23.5 +/- 5.4, P < 0.01 vs. baseline), and remained high after 3 days (21.8 +/- 5.7, *P < 0.01 vs. baseline). CNR was also high in blood 1 day after injection (42.7 +/- 7.2 vs. 1.8 +/- 0.7 at baseline, P < 0.01) but approached baseline after 3 days (1.9 +/- 1.4, P = NS vs. baseline). CONCLUSION: IRON in conjunction with superparamagnetic nanoparticles can be used to perform 'positive contrast' MR-lymphography, particularly 3 days after injection of the contrast agent, when signal is no longer visible within blood vessels. The proposed method may have potential as an adjunct for nodal staging in cancer screening.
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Background: Management of febrile neutropenic episodes (FE) is challenged by lacking microbiological and clinical documentation of infection. We aimed at evaluating the utility of monitoring blood procalcitonin (PCT) in FE for initial diagnosis of infection and reassessment in persistent fever.Methods: PCT kinetics was prospectively monitored in 194 consecutive FE (1771 blood samples): 65 microbiologically documented infections (MDI, 33.5%; 49 due to non-coagulase-negative staphylococci, non-CNS), 68 clinically documented infections (CDI, 35%; 39 deep-seated), and 61 fever of unexplained origin (FUO, 31.5%).Results: At fever onset median PCT was 190 pg/mL (range 30-26'800), without significant difference among MDI, CDI and FUO. PCT peak occurred on day 2 after onset of fever: non-CNS-MDI/deep-seated-CDI (656, 80-86350) vs. FUO (205, 33-771; p<0.001). PCT >500 pg/mL distinguished non-CNS-MDI/deep-seated-CDI from FUO with 56% sensitivity and 90% specificity. PCT was >500 pg/ml in only 10% of FUO (688, 570-771). A PCT peak >500 pg/mL (1196, 524-11950) occurred beyond 3 days of persistent fever in 17/21 (81%) invasive fungal diseases (IFD). This late PCT peak identified IFD with 81% sensitivity and 57% specificity and preceded diagnosis according to EORTC-MSG criteria in 41% of cases. In IFD responding to therapy, median days to PCT <500 pg/mL and defervescence were 5 (1-23) vs. 10 (3-22; p = 0.026), respectively.Conclusion: While procalcitonin is not useful for diagnosis of infection at onset of neutropenic fever, it may help to distinguish a minority of potentially severe infections among FUOs on day 2 after onset of fever. In persistent fever monitoring procalcitonin contributes to early diagnosis and follow-up of invasive mycoses
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(1,3)-b-D-glucan is a component of the fungal cell wall. New assays have made it possible to detect this molecule in a variety of clinical samples such as blood, cerebrospinal fluid, and bronchioalveolar lavage fluid. Detection of this molecule through several assays has been validated as an adjunct method to diagnose invasive fungal infections. With several decades of data and recent positive meta-analyses, these assays have now been sufficiently studied and are ready to enter the mainstream of diagnosis in medical mycology.
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BACKGROUND: Extensive research exists estimating the effect hazardous alcohol¦use on morbidity and mortality, but little research quantifies the association between¦alcohol consumption and utility scores in patients with alcohol dependence.¦In the context of comparative research, the World Health Organisation (WHO)¦proposed to categorise the risk for alcohol-related acute and chronic harm according¦to patients' average daily alcohol consumption. OBJECTIVES: To estimate utility¦scores associated with each category of the WHO drinking risk-level classification¦in patients with alcohol dependence (AD). METHODS: We used data from¦CONTROL, an observational cohort study including 143 AD patients from the Alcohol¦Treatment Center at Lausanne University Hospital, followed for 12 months.¦Average daily alcohol consumption was assessed monthly using the Timeline Follow-¦back method and patients were categorised according to the WHO drinking¦risk-level classification: abstinent, low, medium, high and very high. Other measures¦as sociodemographic characteristics and utility scores derived from the EuroQoL¦5-Dimensions questionnaire (EQ-5D) were collected every three months.¦Mixed models for repeated measures were used to estimate mean utility scores¦associated with WHO drinking risk-level categories. RESULTS: A total of 143 patients¦were included and the 12-month follow-up permitting the assessment of¦1318 person-months. At baseline the mean age of the patients was 44.6 (SD 11.8)¦and the majority of patients was male (63.6%). Using repeated measures analysis,¦utility scores decreased with increasing drinking levels, ranging from 0.80 in abstinent¦patients to 0.62 in patients with very high risk drinking level (p_0.0001).¦CONCLUSIONS: In this sample of patients with alcohol dependence undergoing¦specialized care, utility scores estimated from the EQ-5D appeared to substantially¦and consistently vary according to patients' WHO drinking level.
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BACKGROUND: Western Palearctic tree frogs (Hyla arborea group) represent a strong potential for evolutionary and conservation genetic research, so far underexploited due to limited molecular resources. New microsatellite markers have recently been developed for Hyla arborea, with high cross-species utility across the entire circum-Mediterranean radiation. Here we conduct sibship analyses to map available markers for use in future population genetic applications. FINDINGS: We characterized eight linkage groups, including one sex-linked, all showing drastically reduced recombination in males compared to females, as previously documented in this species. Mapping of the new 15 markers to the ~200 My diverged Xenopus tropicalis genome suggests a generally conserved synteny with only one confirmed major chromosome rearrangement. CONCLUSIONS: The new microsatellites are representative of several chromosomes of H. arborea that are likely to be conserved across closely-related species. Our linkage map provides an important resource for genetic research in European Hylids, notably for studies of speciation, genome evolution and conservation.
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OBJECTIVES: To assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of risedronate compared to no intervention in postmenopausal osteoporotic women in a Swiss perspective. METHODS: A previously validated Markov model was populated with epidemiological and cost data specific to Switzerland and published utility values, and run on a population of 1,000 women of 70 years with established osteoporosis and previous vertebral fracture, treated over 5 years with risedronate 35 mg weekly or no intervention (base case), and five cohorts (according to age at therapy start) with eight risk factor distributions and three lengths of residual effects. RESULTS: In the base case population, the ICER of averting a hip fracture and the ICUR per quality-adjusted life year gained were both dominant. In the presence of a previous vertebral fracture, the ICUR was below euro45,000 (pound30,000) in all the scenarios. For all osteoporotic women>or=70 years of age with at least one risk factor, the ICUR was below euro45,000 or the intervention may even be cost saving. Age at the start of therapy and the fracture risk profile had a significant impact on results. CONCLUSION: Assuming a 2-year residual effect, that ICUR of risedronate in women with postmenopausal osteoporosis is below accepted thresholds from the age of 65 and even cost saving above the age of 70 with at least one risk factor.
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BACKGROUND: A 70-gene signature was previously shown to have prognostic value in patients with node-negative breast cancer. Our goal was to validate the signature in an independent group of patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 307, with 137 events after a median follow-up of 13.6 years) from five European centers were divided into high- and low-risk groups based on the gene signature classification and on clinical risk classifications. Patients were assigned to the gene signature low-risk group if their 5-year distant metastasis-free survival probability as estimated by the gene signature was greater than 90%. Patients were assigned to the clinicopathologic low-risk group if their 10-year survival probability, as estimated by Adjuvant! software, was greater than 88% (for estrogen receptor [ER]-positive patients) or 92% (for ER-negative patients). Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare time to distant metastases, disease-free survival, and overall survival in high- versus low-risk groups. RESULTS: The 70-gene signature outperformed the clinicopathologic risk assessment in predicting all endpoints. For time to distant metastases, the gene signature yielded HR = 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.35 to 4.00) without adjustment for clinical risk and hazard ratios ranging from 2.13 to 2.15 after adjustment for various estimates of clinical risk; clinicopathologic risk using Adjuvant! software yielded an unadjusted HR = 1.68 (95% CI = 0.92 to 3.07). For overall survival, the gene signature yielded an unadjusted HR = 2.79 (95% CI = 1.60 to 4.87) and adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 2.63 to 2.89; clinicopathologic risk yielded an unadjusted HR = 1.67 (95% CI = 0.93 to 2.98). For patients in the gene signature high-risk group, 10-year overall survival was 0.69 for patients in both the low- and high-clinical risk groups; for patients in the gene signature low-risk group, the 10-year survival rates were 0.88 and 0.89, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 70-gene signature adds independent prognostic information to clinicopathologic risk assessment for patients with early breast cancer.
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Executive Summary The unifying theme of this thesis is the pursuit of a satisfactory ways to quantify the riskureward trade-off in financial economics. First in the context of a general asset pricing model, then across models and finally across country borders. The guiding principle in that pursuit was to seek innovative solutions by combining ideas from different fields in economics and broad scientific research. For example, in the first part of this thesis we sought a fruitful application of strong existence results in utility theory to topics in asset pricing. In the second part we implement an idea from the field of fuzzy set theory to the optimal portfolio selection problem, while the third part of this thesis is to the best of our knowledge, the first empirical application of some general results in asset pricing in incomplete markets to the important topic of measurement of financial integration. While the first two parts of this thesis effectively combine well-known ways to quantify the risk-reward trade-offs the third one can be viewed as an empirical verification of the usefulness of the so-called "good deal bounds" theory in designing risk-sensitive pricing bounds. Chapter 1 develops a discrete-time asset pricing model, based on a novel ordinally equivalent representation of recursive utility. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to use a member of a novel class of recursive utility generators to construct a representative agent model to address some long-lasting issues in asset pricing. Applying strong representation results allows us to show that the model features countercyclical risk premia, for both consumption and financial risk, together with low and procyclical risk free rate. As the recursive utility used nests as a special case the well-known time-state separable utility, all results nest the corresponding ones from the standard model and thus shed light on its well-known shortcomings. The empirical investigation to support these theoretical results, however, showed that as long as one resorts to econometric methods based on approximating conditional moments with unconditional ones, it is not possible to distinguish the model we propose from the standard one. Chapter 2 is a join work with Sergei Sontchik. There we provide theoretical and empirical motivation for aggregation of performance measures. The main idea is that as it makes sense to apply several performance measures ex-post, it also makes sense to base optimal portfolio selection on ex-ante maximization of as many possible performance measures as desired. We thus offer a concrete algorithm for optimal portfolio selection via ex-ante optimization over different horizons of several risk-return trade-offs simultaneously. An empirical application of that algorithm, using seven popular performance measures, suggests that realized returns feature better distributional characteristics relative to those of realized returns from portfolio strategies optimal with respect to single performance measures. When comparing the distributions of realized returns we used two partial risk-reward orderings first and second order stochastic dominance. We first used the Kolmogorov Smirnov test to determine if the two distributions are indeed different, which combined with a visual inspection allowed us to demonstrate that the way we propose to aggregate performance measures leads to portfolio realized returns that first order stochastically dominate the ones that result from optimization only with respect to, for example, Treynor ratio and Jensen's alpha. We checked for second order stochastic dominance via point wise comparison of the so-called absolute Lorenz curve, or the sequence of expected shortfalls for a range of quantiles. As soon as the plot of the absolute Lorenz curve for the aggregated performance measures was above the one corresponding to each individual measure, we were tempted to conclude that the algorithm we propose leads to portfolio returns distribution that second order stochastically dominates virtually all performance measures considered. Chapter 3 proposes a measure of financial integration, based on recent advances in asset pricing in incomplete markets. Given a base market (a set of traded assets) and an index of another market, we propose to measure financial integration through time by the size of the spread between the pricing bounds of the market index, relative to the base market. The bigger the spread around country index A, viewed from market B, the less integrated markets A and B are. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in the size of the spread for EMU member country indices before and after the introduction of the Euro. We find evidence that both the level and the volatility of our financial integration measure increased after the introduction of the Euro. That counterintuitive result suggests the presence of an inherent weakness in the attempt to measure financial integration independently of economic fundamentals. Nevertheless, the results about the bounds on the risk free rate appear plausible from the view point of existing economic theory about the impact of integration on interest rates.
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Dyspnea and chest pain are typical reasons for consultations. biomarkers (CRP, procalcitonin, NT-proBNP, troponins, D-dimers) can have an interest for the diagnosis, the prognosis and the follow-up of several pathologies. There are however numerous pitfalls and limitations between the discovery of a biomarker and the utility in clinical practice. It is essential to always estimate a pre-test probability based on an attentive history and a careful physical examination, to know the intrinsic and extrinsic qualities of a test, and to determine a threshold of care. A biomarker should be used only if it modifies the patient's care and if it brings him a benefit compared to the patient who has no biomarker.
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Audit report on the Regional Utility Service Systems Commission for the year ended June 30, 2011
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Background and Aims The frequency at which males can be maintained with hermaphrodites in androdioecious populations is predicted to depend on the selfing rate, because self-fertilization by hermaphrodites reduces prospective siring opportunities for males. In particular, high selfing rates by hermaphrodites are expected to exclude males from a population. Here, the first estimates are provided of the mating system from two wild hexaploid populations of the androdioecious European wind-pollinated plant M. annua with contrasting male frequencies.Methods Four diploid microsatellite loci were used to genotype 19-20 progeny arrays from two populations of M. annua, one with males and one without. Mating-system parameters were estimated using the program MLTR.Key Results Both populations had similar, intermediate outcrossing rates (t(m) = 0.64 and 0.52 for the population with and without males, respectively). The population without males showed a lower level of correlated paternity and biparental inbreeding and higher allelic richness and gene diversity than the population with males.Conclusions The results demonstrate the utility of new diploid microsatellite loci for mating system analysis in a hexaploid plant. It would appear that androdioecious M. annua has a mixed-mating system in the wild, an uncommon finding for wind-pollinated species. This study sets a foundation for future research to assess the relative importance of the sexual system, plant-density variation and stochastic processes for the regulation of male frequencies in M. annua over space and time.