Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates

The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (lambda, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of lambda near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.

Chemical, physical and electrical properties of aged dodecylbenzene 3: thermal ageing of mixed isomers in nitrogen and under sealed conditions

Commercial dodecylbenzene cable fluid was aged at temperatures of 105 and 135 degrees C in dry oxygen-free nitrogen. In addition, selected samples were aged at 135 degrees C under sealed conditions where air was excluded from the headspace above the oil. A variety of analytical techniques, such as ultra-violet visible and infra-red spectroscopy, acid number and water content measurements, were then used to characterize the aged oils. In addition, their electrical properties were assessed by dielectric spectroscopy. Compared with ageing in air, the ageing rate was reduced significantly and, as expected, no major oxidation peaks were detected in the infrared spectrometer. Significantly, very little absorbance at 680 nm ("red absorbers") was detected in samples aged with copper and, consequentially, no large increases in dielectric loss were recorded within the ageing times considered here. This study compliments previous investigations on cable fluid and 1-phenyldodecane aged in air and show that the same ageing indicators are valid in oils aged under conditions which more closely resemble those found in high voltage plant.

Chemical, physical and electrical properties of aged dodecylbenzene: thermal ageing of mixed isomers in air

A commercial dodecylbenzene (DDB) cable oil was aged at temperatures between 90 and 135 degrees C in air and was analyzed using various analytical techniques including optical and infra-red spectroscopy and dielectric analysis. On ageing, the oil darkened, significant oxidation features were found by infra-red spectroscopy and the acid number, water content and dielectric loss all increased. Ageing in the presence of paper or aluminum did not affect the ageing process, whereas ageing was significantly modified by the presence of copper. An absorption at 680 nm ("red absorbers") was detected by ultra-violet/visible spectroscopy followed by the production of an opaque precipitate. A reaction between copper and the acid generated on ageing is thought to produce copper carboxylates, and X-ray fluorescence confirmed that copper was indeed present in both the aged oil and the precipitate. Significantly, once red absorbers were detected, the dielectric loss increased to catastrophically high values and, therefore, the appearance of these compounds may serve as a useful diagnostic indicator. The development of acidity on ageing appears to be key in initiating the destructive copper conversion reaction and hence the control of oil acidity may be key to prolonging the life of DDB cable oils.

Chemical, physical and electrical properties of aged dodecylbenzene 2: thermal ageing of single isomers in air

The linear isomer of dodecylbenzene (DDB), 1-phenyldodecane, was aged at temperatures of 105 and 135 degrees C in air and the resultant products were analyzed using a range of analytical techniques. On ageing, the 1-phenyldodecane darkened, the acid number, dielectric loss and water content increased and significant oxidation peaks were detected in the infrared spectrum. When aged in the presence of copper, a characteristic peak at 680 nm was also detected by UV/visible spectroscopy but, compared with previous studies of a cable-grade DDB, the strength of this peak was much increased and no appreciable precipitate formation occurred. At the same time, very high values of dielectric loss were recorded. On ageing in the absence of copper, an unusually strong infrared carbonyl band was seen, which correlates well with the detection of dodecanophenone by gas chromatography / mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. It was therefore concluded that the ageing process proceeds via the initial production of aromatic ketones, which may then be further oxidized to carboxylic acids. In the presence of copper, these oxidation products are present in lower quantities, most of these oxidation products being combined with the copper present in the oil to give copper carboxylates. The behavior is described in terms of a complex autoxidation mechanism, in which copper acts as both an oxidizing and a reducing agent, depending on its oxidation state and, in particular, promotes elimination via the oxidation of intermediate alkyl radical species to carbocations.

Cyclones causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: characteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns

A climatology of cyclones with a focus on their relation to wind storm tracks in the Mediterranean region (MR) is presented. Trends in the frequency of cyclones and wind storms, as well as variations associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic/West Russian (EAWR) and the Scandinavian variability pattern (SCAND) are discussed. The study is based on the ERA40 reanalysis dataset. Wind storm tracks are identified by tracking clusters of adjacent grid boxes characterised by extremely high local wind speeds. The wind track is assigned to a cyclone track independently identified with an objective scheme. Areas with high wind activity – quantified by extreme wind tracks – are typically located south of the Golf of Genoa, south of Cyprus, southeast of Sicily and west of the Iberian Peninsula. About 69% of the wind storms are caused by cyclones located in the Mediterranean region, while the remaining 31% can be attributed to North Atlantic or Northern European cyclones. The North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic/West Russian pattern and the Scandinavian pattern all influence the amount and spatial distribution of wind inducing cyclones and wind events in the MR. The strongest signals exist for the NAO and the EAWR pattern, which are both associated with an increase in the number of organised strong wind events in the eastern MR during their positive phase. On the other hand, the storm numbers decrease over the western MR for the positive phase of the NAO and over the central MR during the positive phase of the EAWR pattern. The positive phase of the Scandinavian pattern is associated with a decrease in the number of winter wind storms over most of the MR. A third of the trends in the number of wind storms and wind producing cyclones during the winter season of the ERA40 period may be attributed to the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects

We investigate the initialization of Northern-hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates significantly reduces assimilation error both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations, reducing the concentration error by a factor of four to six, and the thickness error by a factor of two. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that the strong dependence of thermodynamic ice growth on ice concentration necessitates an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that proportional mean-thickness updates are superior to the other two methods considered and enable us to assimilate sea ice in a global climate model using simple Newtonian relaxation.

Assimilation of sea-ice concentration in a global climate model — physical and statistical aspects

We investigate the initialisation of Northern Hemisphere sea ice in the global climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM by assimilating sea-ice concentration data. The analysis updates for concentration are given by Newtonian relaxation, and we discuss different ways of specifying the analysis updates for mean thickness. Because the conservation of mean ice thickness or actual ice thickness in the analysis updates leads to poor assimilation performance, we introduce a proportional dependence between concentration and mean thickness analysis updates. Assimilation with these proportional mean-thickness analysis updates leads to good assimilation performance for sea-ice concentration and thickness, both in identical-twin experiments and when assimilating sea-ice observations. The simulation of other Arctic surface fields in the coupled model is, however, not significantly improved by the assimilation. To understand the physical aspects of assimilation errors, we construct a simple prognostic model of the sea-ice thermodynamics, and analyse its response to the assimilation. We find that an adjustment of mean ice thickness in the analysis update is essential to arrive at plausible state estimates. To understand the statistical aspects of assimilation errors, we study the model background error covariance between ice concentration and ice thickness. We find that the spatial structure of covariances is best represented by the proportional mean-thickness analysis updates. Both physical and statistical evidence supports the experimental finding that assimilation with proportional mean-thickness updates outperforms the other two methods considered. The method described here is very simple to implement, and gives results that are sufficiently good to be used for initialising sea ice in a global climate model for seasonal to decadal predictions.

Evaluation of mechanical, physical and thermal performance of cement-based tiles reinforced with vegetable fibers

The objective of this work was to analyze mechanical, physical and thermal performance of roofing tiles produced with several formulations of cement-based matrices reinforced with sisal and eucalyptus fibers. The physical properties of the tiles were more influenced by the fiber content of the composite than by the type of reinforcement. The type of the fiber was the main variable for the achievement of the best results of mechanical properties. Exposure to tropical climate has caused a severe reduction in the mechanical properties of the composites. After approximately four months of age under external weathering the toughness of the vegetable fiber-cement fell to 53-68% of the initial toughness at 28 days of age. The thermal performance showed that roofing tiles reinforced with vegetable fiber are acceptable as substitutes of asbestos-cement sheets. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

City sizes and industry concentration

In a general equilibrium model of trade under transportation costs between two cities we show how the relative population sizes are simultaneously detemined with the degree of geographic concentration of industries characterized by different elasticities of scale of production. The effect on city size of the presence of nontraded goods is also analyzed.