Energy levels, radiative rates and electron impact excitation rates for transitions in Fe XIV

Energies and lifetimes are reported for the lowest 136 levels of Fe XIV, belonging to the (1s(2)2s(2)2p(6)) 3s(2)3p, 3s(3)p(2), 3s(2)3d, 3p(3), 3s(3)p(3)d, 3p(2)3d, 3s(3)d(2), 3p(3)d(2) and 3s(2)4l configurations. Additionally, radiative rates, oscillator strengths and line strengths are calculated for all electric dipole (E1), magnetic dipole (M1), electric quadrupole (E2) and magnetic quadrupole (M2) transitions. Theoretical lifetimes determined from these radiative rates for most levels show satisfactory agreement with earlier calculations, a swell as with measurements. Electron impact excitation collision strengths are also calculated with the Dirac atomic R-matrix code (DARC) over a wide energy range up to 260 Ryd. Furthermore, resonances have been resolved in a fine energy mesh to determine effective collision strengths, obtained after integrating the collision strengths over a Maxwellian distribution of electron velocities. Results are listed for all 9180 transitions among the 136 levels over a wide range of electron temperatures, up to 10(7.1) K. Comparisons are made with available results in the literature, and the accuracy of the present data is assessed.

Homogenization and analysis of an expanded long-term monthly rainfall network for the Island of Ireland (1850–2010)

Long-term precipitation series are critical for understanding emerging changes to the hydrological cycle. To this end we construct a homogenized Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network comprising 25 stations and a composite series covering the period 1850–2010, providing the second-longest regional precipitation archive in the British-Irish Isles. We expand the existing catalogue of long-term precipitation records for the island by recovering archived data for an additional eight stations. Following bridging and updating of stations HOMogenisation softwarE in R (HOMER) homogenization software is used to detect breaks using pairwise and joint detection. A total of 25 breakpoints are detected across 14 stations, and the majority (20) are corroborated by metadata. Assessment of variability and change in homogenized and extended precipitation records reveal positive (winter) and negative (summer) trends. Trends in records covering the typical period of digitization (1941 onwards) are not always representative of longer records. Furthermore, trends in post-homogenization series change magnitude and even direction at some stations. While cautionary flags are raised for some series, confidence in the derived network is high given attention paid to metadata, coherence of behaviour across the network and consistency of findings with other long-term climatic series such as England and Wales precipitation. As far as we are aware, this work represents the first application of HOMER to a long-term precipitation network and bodes well for use in other regions. It is expected that the homogenized IIP network will find wider utility in benchmarking and supporting climate services across the Island of Ireland, a sentinel location in the North Atlantic.

Ultraviolet emission lines of Si II in cool star and solar spectra

Recent atomic physics calculations for Si II are employed within the CLOUDY modelling code to analyse Hubble Space Telescope (HST) STIS ultraviolet spectra of three cool stars, β Geminorum, α Centauri A and B, as well as previously published HST/GHRS observations of α Tau, plus solar quiet Sun data from the High Resolution Telescope and Spectrograph. Discrepancies found previously between theory and observation for line intensity ratios involving the 3s²3p ²PJ-3s3p^{2 4}P^J' intercombination multiplet of Si II at ~ 2335 Å are significantly reduced, as are those for ratios containing the 3s²3p ²PJ-3s3p^{2 2}DJ ~ transitions at ~1816 Å. This is primarily due to the effect of the new Si II transition probabilities. However, these atomic data are not only very different from previous calculations, but also show large disagreements with measurements, specifically those of Calamai et al. for the intercombination lines. New measurements of transition probabilities for Si II are hence urgently required to confirm (or otherwise) the accuracy of the recently calculated values. If the new calculations are confirmed, then a long-standing discrepancy between theory and observation will have finally been resolved. However, if the older measurements are found to be correct, then the agreement between theory and observation is simply a coincidence and the existing discrepancies remain.

Effective collision strengths for fine-structure forbidden transitions among the 2s22p3 levels of S x

Effective collision strengths for electron-impact excitation of the N-like ion S x are calculated in the close-coupling approximation using the multichannel R-matrix method. Specific attention is given to the 10 astrophysically important fine-structure forbidden transitions among the ⁴S^O, ²D^o and ²P^o levels in the 2s²2p³ ground configuration. The total (e^- + ion) wavefunction is expanded in terms of the 11 lowest LS eigenstates of S x, and each eigenstate is represented by extensive configuration-interaction wavefunctions. The collision strengths obtained are thermally averaged over a Maxwellian distribution of velocities, for all 10 fine-structure transitions, over the range of electron temperatures log T(K) = 4.6-6.7 (the range appropriate for astrophysical applications). The present effective collision strengths are the only results currently available for these fine-structure transition rates.

Effective collision strengths for fine-structure forbidden transitions among the 2s22p3 levels of Ne IV

Effective collision strengths for electron-impact excitation of the N-like ion NeIV are calculated in the close-coupling approximation using the multichannel R-matrix method. Specific attention is given to the 10 astrophysically important fine-structure forbidden transitions among the ⁴S^o, ²D^o and ²P^o levels in the 2s²2p³ ground-state configuration. The expansion of the total wavefunction incorporates the lowest 11 LS eigenstates of NeIV, consisting of eight n = 2 terms with configurations 2s²2p³, 2s2p⁴ and 2p⁵, together with three n = 3 states of configuration 2s²2p²3s. We present in graphical form the effective collision strengths obtained by thermally averaging the collision strengths over a Maxwellian distribution of velocities, for all 10 fine-structure transitions, over the range of electron temperatures log T(K) = 3.6 to log T(K) = 6.1 (the range appropriate for astrophysical applications). Comparisons are made with the earlier, less sophisticated close-coupling calculation of Giles, and excellent agreement is found in the limited temperature region where a comparison is possible [log T(K) = 3.7 to log 7(K) = 4.3]. At higher temperatures the present data are the only reliable results currently available.

Investigating the rates and impacts of near misses and related incidents among UK cyclists

The paper investigates the occurrence of non-injury incidents among cyclists in the UK, seeking to (i) generate a rate that can be compared with injury rates, (ii) analyse factors affecting incident rates, and (iii) analyse factors affecting the impact of incidents on cyclists. We collected data on non-injury cycling ‘incidents’ (near misses and other frightening and/or annoying incidents) from 1692 online diaries of cycle trip stages1 and incidents, participants having signed up in advance for a specific day. Following data cleaning and coding, a dataset was created covering 1532 diary days and 3994 records of incidents occurring within the UK. Incident rates were calculated and compared to injury risks for cyclists. Cross-tabulation and regression were used to identify factors affecting incident rates and the effect an incident has on the cyclist. Frightening or annoying non-injury incidents, unlike slight injuries, are an everyday experience for most people cycling in the UK. For regular cyclists ‘very scary’ incidents (rated as 3 on a 0–3 scale) are on average a weekly experience, with deliberate aggression experienced monthly. Per mile, non-injury incidents were more frequent for people making shorter and slower trips. People aged over 55 were at lower risk, as were those cycling at the weekend and outside the morning peak. Incidents that involved motor vehicles, especially those involving larger vehicles, were more frightening than those that did not. Near miss and other non-injury incidents are widespread in the UK and may have a substantial impact on cycling experience and uptake. Policy and research should initially target the most frightening types of incident, such as very close passes and incidents involving large vehicles. Further attention needs to be paid to the experiences of groups under-represented among cyclists, such as women making shorter trips.

Evaluating monthly volatility forecasts using proxies at different frequencies

This paper analyses the forecastability of stock returns monthly volatility. The forecast obtained from GARCH and AGARCH models with Normal and Student's t errors are evaluated with respect to proxies for the unobserved volatility obtained through sampling at different frequencies. It is found that aggregation of daily multi-step ahead GARCH-type forecasts provide rather accurate predictions of monthly volatility.

The Columbian Orator : containing a variety of original and selected pieces ; together with rules ; calculated to improve youth and othersin the ornamental and useful art of eloquence

UANL

Modélisation de l'irradiance solaire spectrale dans le proche et moyen ultraviolet

Nous présentons un modèle pour l’irradiance solaire spectrale entre 200 et 400 nm. Celui-ci est une extension d’un modèle d’irradiance solaire totale basé sur la simulation de la fragmentation et l’érosion des taches qui utilise, en entrée, les positions et aires des taches observées pour chaque pas de temps d’une journée. L’émergence des taches sur la face du Soleil opposée à la Terre est simulée par une injection stochastique. Le modèle simule ensuite leur désintégration, qui produit des taches plus petites et des facules. Par la suite, l’irradiance est calculée en sommant la contribution des taches, des facules et du Soleil inactif. Les paramètres libres du modèle sont ajustés en comparant les séquences temporelles produites avec les données provenant de divers satellites s’étalant sur trois cycles d’activité. Le modèle d’irradiance spectrale, quant à lui, a été obtenu en modifiant le calcul de la contribution des taches et des facules, ainsi que celle du Soleil inactif, afin de tenir compte de leur dépendance spectrale. Le flux de la photosphère inactive est interpolé sur un spectre synthétique non magnétisé, alors que le contraste des taches est obtenu en calculant le rapport du flux provenant d’un spectre synthétique représentatif des taches et de celui provenant du spectre représentatif du Soleil inactif. Le contraste des facules est quand à lui calculé avec une procédure simple d’inversion de corps noir. Cette dernière nécessite l’utilisation d’un profil de température des facules obtenu à l’aide de modèles d’atmosphère. Les données produites avec le modèle d’irradiance spectrale sont comparées aux observations de SOLSTICE sur UARS. L’accord étant peu satisfaisant, particulièrement concernant le niveau d’irradiance minimal ainsi que l’amplitude des variations, des corrections sont appliquées sur le flux du Soleil inactif, sur le profil de température des facules, ainsi qu’à la dépendance centre-bord du contraste des facules. Enfin, un profil de température des facules est reconstruit empiriquement en maximisant l’accord avec les observations grâce à un algorithme génétique. Il est utilisé afin de reconstruire les séquences temporelles d’irradiance jusqu’en 1874 à des longueurs d’ondes d’intérêt pour la chimie et la dynamique stratosphérique.

Une nouvelle méthode smoothed particle hydrodynamics : simulation des interfaces immergées et de la dynamique Brownienne des molécules avec des interactions hydrodynamiques

Dans cette thèse, nous présentons une nouvelle méthode smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) pour la résolution des équations de Navier-Stokes incompressibles, même en présence des forces singulières. Les termes de sources singulières sont traités d'une manière similaire à celle que l'on retrouve dans la méthode Immersed Boundary (IB) de Peskin (2002) ou de la méthode régularisée de Stokeslets (Cortez, 2001). Dans notre schéma numérique, nous mettons en oeuvre une méthode de projection sans pression de second ordre inspirée de Kim et Moin (1985). Ce schéma évite complètement les difficultés qui peuvent être rencontrées avec la prescription des conditions aux frontières de Neumann sur la pression. Nous présentons deux variantes de cette approche: l'une, Lagrangienne, qui est communément utilisée et l'autre, Eulerienne, car nous considérons simplement que les particules SPH sont des points de quadrature où les propriétés du fluide sont calculées, donc, ces points peuvent être laissés fixes dans le temps. Notre méthode SPH est d'abord testée à la résolution du problème de Poiseuille bidimensionnel entre deux plaques infinies et nous effectuons une analyse détaillée de l'erreur des calculs. Pour ce problème, les résultats sont similaires autant lorsque les particules SPH sont libres de se déplacer que lorsqu'elles sont fixes. Nous traitons, par ailleurs, du problème de la dynamique d'une membrane immergée dans un fluide visqueux et incompressible avec notre méthode SPH. La membrane est représentée par une spline cubique le long de laquelle la tension présente dans la membrane est calculée et transmise au fluide environnant. Les équations de Navier-Stokes, avec une force singulière issue de la membrane sont ensuite résolues pour déterminer la vitesse du fluide dans lequel est immergée la membrane. La vitesse du fluide, ainsi obtenue, est interpolée sur l'interface, afin de déterminer son déplacement. Nous discutons des avantages à maintenir les particules SPH fixes au lieu de les laisser libres de se déplacer. Nous appliquons ensuite notre méthode SPH à la simulation des écoulements confinés des solutions de polymères non dilués avec une interaction hydrodynamique et des forces d'exclusion de volume. Le point de départ de l'algorithme est le système couplé des équations de Langevin pour les polymères et le solvant (CLEPS) (voir par exemple Oono et Freed (1981) et Öttinger et Rabin (1989)) décrivant, dans le cas présent, les dynamiques microscopiques d'une solution de polymère en écoulement avec une représentation bille-ressort des macromolécules. Des tests numériques de certains écoulements dans des canaux bidimensionnels révèlent que l'utilisation de la méthode de projection d'ordre deux couplée à des points de quadrature SPH fixes conduit à un ordre de convergence de la vitesse qui est de deux et à une convergence d'ordre sensiblement égale à deux pour la pression, pourvu que la solution soit suffisamment lisse. Dans le cas des calculs à grandes échelles pour les altères et pour les chaînes de bille-ressort, un choix approprié du nombre de particules SPH en fonction du nombre des billes N permet, en l'absence des forces d'exclusion de volume, de montrer que le coût de notre algorithme est d'ordre O(N). Enfin, nous amorçons des calculs tridimensionnels avec notre modèle SPH. Dans cette optique, nous résolvons le problème de l'écoulement de Poiseuille tridimensionnel entre deux plaques parallèles infinies et le problème de l'écoulement de Poiseuille dans une conduite rectangulaire infiniment longue. De plus, nous simulons en dimension trois des écoulements confinés entre deux plaques infinies des solutions de polymères non diluées avec une interaction hydrodynamique et des forces d'exclusion de volume.

Long term trends of seasonal and monthly rainfall in different intensity ranges over Indian subcontinent

In general Indian summer monsoon rainfall did not show any significant trend in all Indian summer monsoon rainfall series, however, it was reported that the ISMR is subjected to spatial trends. This paper made an attempt to bring out long term trends of different intensity classes of summer monsoon rainfall in different regions of Indian subcontinent. The long term trend of seasonal and monthly rainfall were also made using the India Meteorological Department gridded daily rainfall data with a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° latitude-longitude grid for the period from 1st January, 1901 to 31st December, 2003. The summer monsoon rainfall shows an increasing trend in southeast, northwest and northeast regions, whereas decreasing trend in the central and west coastal regions. In monthly scale, July rainfall shows decreasing trend over west coastal and central Indian regions and significant increasing trend over northeast region at 0.1% significant level. During the month August, decreasing trend is observed in the west coastal stations at 10% significant level. In most of the stations, mean daily rainfall shows an increasing trend for low and very high intense rainfall. For the moderate rainfall, the trend is different for different regions. In the central and southern regions the trend of moderate and moderately high classes show increasing trend. And for the high and very high intensity classes, the trend is decreasing significantly. In the northeastern regions, above 10 mm/day rainfall shows significantly increasing trend with 0.1% significant level.