A regionally informed abundance index for supporting integrative analyses across butterfly monitoring schemes

1. The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. 2. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). 3. The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial. 4. Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Climatic risks and impacts in South Asia: extremes of water scarcity and excess

This paper reviews the current knowledge of climatic risks and impacts in South Asia associated with anthropogenic warming levels of 1.5°C to 4°C above pre-industrial values in the 21st century. It is based on the World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat, Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience” (2013). Many of the climate change impacts in the region, which appear quite severe even with relatively modest warming of 1.5–2°C, pose significant hazards to development. For example, increased monsoon variability and loss or glacial meltwater will likely confront populations with ongoing and multiple challenges. The result is a significant risk to stable and reliable water resources for the region, with increases in peak flows potentially causing floods and dry season flow reductions threatening agriculture. Irrespective of the anticipated economic development and growth, climate projections indicate that large parts of South Asia’s growing population and especially the poor are likely to remain highly vulnerable to climate change.

The medieval climate anomaly and Byzantium: a review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary

Holocene Climatic Optimum centennial-scale paleoceanography in the NE Aegean (Mediterranean sea)

Combined micropaleontological and geochemical analyses of the high-sedimentation gravity core M-4G provided new centennial-scale paleoceanographic data for sapropel S1 deposition in the NE Aegean Sea during the Holocene Climatic Optimum. Sapropel layer S1a (10.2–8.0 ka) was deposited in dysoxic to oxic bottom waters characterized by a high abundance of benthic foraminiferal species tolerating surface sediment and/or pore water oxygen depletion (e.g., Chilostomella mediterranensis, Globobulimina affinis), and the presence of Uvigerina mediterranea, which thrives in oxic mesotrophic-eutrophic environments. Preservation of organic matter (OM) is inferred based on high organic carbon as well as loliolide and isololiolide contents, while the biomarker record and the abundances of eutrophic planktonic foraminifera document enhanced productivity. High inputs of terrigenous OM are attributed to north Aegean borderland riverine inputs. Both alkenone-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and δO18G. bulloides records indicate cooling at 8.2 ka (S1a) and ~7.8 ka (S1 interruption). Sapropelic layer S1b (7.7–6.4 ka) is characterized by rather oxic conditions; abundances of foraminiferal species tolerant to oxygen depletion are very low compared with the U. mediterranea rise. Strongly fluctuating SSTs demonstrate repeated cooling and associated dense water formation, with a major event at 7.4 ka followed by cold spells at 7.0, 6.8, and 6.5 ka. The prominent rise of the carbon preference index within the S1b layer indicates the delivery of less degraded terrestrial OM. The increase of algal biomarkers, labile OM-feeding foraminifera and eutrophic planktonic species pinpoints an enhanced in situ marine productivity, promoted by more efficient vertical convection due to repeated cold events. The associated contributions of labile marine OM along with fresher terrestrial OM inputs after ~7.7 ka imply sources alternative/additional to the north Aegean riverine borderland sources for the influx of organic matter in the south Limnos Basin, plausibly related to the inflow of highly productive Marmara/Black Sea waters.

Body mass index values for newborns according to gestational age

Objective: The combination of twho anthropometric parameters has been more appropriate to assess body composition and proportions in children, with special attention to the Body Mass Index (BMI), as it relates weight and length. However the BMI values for the neonatal period have not been determined yet. This study shows the BMI for newborns at different gestational ages represented in a normal smoothed percentile curve. Methods: Retrospective study including 2,406 appropriate for gestational age newborns following the Alexander et al curve (1996) from 29 to 42 weeks of gestational age. Weight and lenght were measured following standard procedures. For the construction aof a normal smoothed percentile curve, the 3(rd) 5(th), 10(th), 25(th), 5(th), 75(th), 90(th) and 95(th) percentiles were determined and a statistical procedure based on the mathematical model ""sinosuoidal fit"" was applied to establish a curve that estimates biological growth parameters. Results: The Body Mass Index values for gestational age in all percentiles shows a steady increase up to 38 weeks, levels off up to the 40(th) week, followed by a slight decrease to the 42(nd) week in both genders. Conclusion: The results show a direct correlation between gestational age and Body Mass Index for both genders in the nine percentiles, and can provide a useful reference to assess intra-uterine proportional growth.

Leaf antioxidant fluctuations and growth responses in saplings of Caesalpinia echinata Lam. (brazilwood) under an urban stressing environment

We intended to establish how efficient the leaf antioxidant responses of C. echinata are against oxidative environmental conditions observed in an urban environment and their relations to growth and biomass parameters. Plants were grown for 15 months in four sites: Congonhas and Pinheiros, affected by pollutants from vehicular emissions; Ibirapuera, affected by high O(3) concentrations; and a greenhouse with filtered air. Fifteen plants were quarterly removed from each site for analysis of antioxidants, growth and biomass. Plants growing in polluted sites showed alterations in their antioxidants. They were shorter, had thicker stems and produced less leaf biomass than plants maintained under filtered air. The fluctuations in the levels of antioxidants were significantly influenced by combined effects of climatic and pollution variables. The higher were the antioxidant responses and the concentrations of pollutant markers of air contamination in each site the slower were the growth and biomass production. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effects of stocking density in physiological parameters and growth of the endangered teleost species piabanha, Brycon insignis (Steindachner, 1877)

This study investigated the effects of stocking density on the growth and fatty acid (FA) of Brycon insignis metabolism. Fingerlings (360) were distributed into eight ponds at two stocking densities (105 and 210 g/m(3)). The analysis of growth showed that the condition factor (K) and the coefficient of variation (CV) for body mass were not affected by stocking density. However, final body mass and length, specific growth rate (SGR), and weight gain (WG) were higher in the low stocking density group, which also presented a higher feed efficiency (FE) and survival (S). By contrast, muscle protein levels were higher in the high stocking density group. The plasma and muscle lipid content were not affected by stocking density, but fish reared at lower stocking density presented higher lipid concentration in the liver, with no differences in hepatosomatic index values. Even with the differences observed in metabolic and growth parameters, plasma cortisol was not affected by stocking density. The FA profile in the muscle and liver neutral fraction were not affected by stocking density, but the FA in the polar fractions differed between the two stocking densities. In the liver, total polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and PUFA n - 3 increased in higher stocking density, mainly due to an increase in docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). In addition, PUFA n - 6 were also increased in the higher stocking density group, mainly due to an increase in arachidonic acid (AA) and docosadienoic acid (22:2n - 6). In the muscle polar fraction, the saturated fatty acids (SFA) and monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA) decreased in the animals from the higher stocking density group, and this reduction was compensated by an increase in PUFA n - 3 and PUFA n - 6, mainly the FA with 20-22 carbons (20:4n - 6: 22:4:n - 6; 22:5n - 6, 22:5n - 3, and 22:6n - 3). A different profile was observed for the C18 PUFAs, mainly 18:2n - 6 and 18:4n - 6, which were higher in the lower density stocking group. The data suggest that when living in high stocking density, B. insignis differentially utilizes the hepatic lipids as energy source and remodels the membrane fatty acids, with higher amounts of DHA in the polar muscle fraction compensated for by a decrease in MUFA. The zootechnical and physiological indices reveal that the lower stocking density group achieve overall better performance. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The genetic effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes over a tropical latitudinal gradient: diversification of an Atlantic Forest passerine

The increase in biodiversity from high to low latitudes is a widely recognized biogeographical pattern. According to the latitudinal gradient hypothesis (LGH), this pattern was shaped by differential effects of Late Quaternary climatic changes across a latitudinal gradient. Here, we evaluate the effects of climatic changes across a tropical latitudinal gradient and its implications to diversification of an Atlantic Forest (AF) endemic passerine. We studied the intraspecific diversification and historical demography of Sclerurus scansor, based on mitochondrial (ND2, ND3 and cytb) and nuclear (FIB7) gene sequences. Phylogenetic analyses recovered three well-supported clades associated with distinct latitudinal zones. Coalescent-based methods were applied to estimate divergence times and changes in effective population sizes. Estimates of divergence times indicate that intraspecific diversification took place during Middle-Late Pleistocene. Distinct demographic scenarios were identified, with the southern lineage exhibiting a clear signature of demographic expansion, while the central one remained more stable. The northern lineage, contrasting with LGH predictions, exhibited a clear sign of a recent bottleneck. Our results suggest that different AF regions reacted distinctly, even in opposite ways, under the same climatic period, producing simultaneously favourable scenarios for isolation and contact among populations.

Matrix metalloproteinases, TIMPs and growth factors regulating ameloblastoma behaviour

Aims: Ameloblastoma is an odontogenic neoplasm with local invasiveness and recurrence. We have previously suggested that growth factors and matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) influence ameloblastoma invasiveness(1). The aim was to study expression of MMPs, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinases (TIMPs) and growth factors in ameloblastoma. Methods and results: Thirteen cases of solid/multicystic ameloblastoma were examined. As a control, calcifying cystic odontogenic tumour (CCOT), a non-invasive odontogenic neoplasm with ameloblastomatous epithelium was also studied. Immunohistochemistry detected MMPs, TIMPs and growth factors in ameloblastoma and CCOT. The labelling index (LI) of MMP-9 and TIMP-2 was significantly higher in ameloblastoma compared with CCOT. The LI of epidermal growth factor (EGF), transforming growth factor (TGF)-alpha and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) was also increased in ameloblastoma. This neoplasm showed greater expression of MMPs, TIMPs and growth factors compared with CCOT. We then analysed these molecules in ameloblastoma cells and stroma. Ameloblastoma cells exhibited increased LI of MMP-1, -2 and EGFR. We found a positive correlation between EGF and TIMP-1, and between TGF-alpha and TIMP-2. It is known that signals generated by growth factors are transduced by the ERK pathway. Ameloblastoma stroma exhibited the phosphorylated (activated) form of ERK. Conclusions: These results suggest an interplay involving growth factors MMPs and TIMPs that may contribute to ameloblastoma behaviour. Signals generated by this molecular network would be transduced by ERK 1/2 pathway.

Fungi, mycotoxins and phytoalexin in peanut varieties, during plant growth in the field

The aim of the present study was to analyze the mycobiota, occurrence of mycotoxins (aflatoxins and cyclopiazonic acid), and production of phytoalexin (trans-resveratrol) in two peanut varieties (Runner IAC 886 and Caiapo) during plant growth in the field. Climatic factors (rainfall, relative humidity and temperature) and water activity were also evaluated. The results showed a predominance of Fusarium spp. in kernels and pods, followed by Penicillium spp. and Aspergillus flavus. Aflatoxins were detected in 20% and 10% of samples of the IAC 886 and Caiapo varieties, respectively. Analysis showed that 65% of kernel samples of the IAC 886 variety and 25% of the Caiapo variety were contaminated with cyclopiazonic acid. trans-Resveratrol was detected in 6.7% of kernel samples of the IAC 886 variety and in 20% of the Caiapo variety. However, trans-resveratrol was found in 73.3% of leaf samples in the two varieties studied. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Study on China's Income Inequality and the Relationship with Economic Growth

The purpose of this paper is to study China’s income inequality under rapid economic growth.Does the relationship between economic growth and income inequality in China follow theKuznets hypothesis? What is the main cause and trend of China’s income inequality? We usedata which covers the period 1980-2005 to analyze the overall inequality, and data coveringthe period 1980-2002 to analyze the inequality inside rural and urban areas. The derivedresults doubt the validity of Kuznets hypothesis on explaining the relationship betweeneconomic growth and income inequality in China. Also we derive the trend of China’sincreased income inequality and find that the urban-rural income disparity is the main causeof China’s income inequality.

The effects of Ikea and external shopping centers on regional trade and retail growth : A comparative analysis of Ikea’s establishment in Kalmar and Karlstad

This paper examines the effects of Ikea store establishment in Kalmar and Karlstad on the trade and retail inside the two cities, and as well on the trade and retail in the close neighboring municipalities and in further peripheral municipalities in both regions. After the establishment of Ikea store, Kalmar and Karlstad have experienced significant growth in trade and retail. The question, however, is how big this growth is in both cities? And how different locations on different distances from Ikea have been affected? What impact there was on different segments of the retail? How different business branches have been affected? How large the catchment area for the emerging new large-scale retail locations is? These questions, in addition to few others, are investigated in this paper. The thesis starts with an introduction chapter containing a background of the topic, problem description, the investigated questions, the purpose, and the outline of the paper. The next chapter includes the frame of reference which consists of literature review and theoretical framework about the external shopping centers and their impact on retail and regional trade development. It includes also information gathered from previous studies technical reports and other available sources about the subject. The third chapter includes description for the methods used to collect the primary and secondary data needed for the purpose of this study. Then the empirical framework which demonstrates the results of the conducted research followed by analysis and concluded in discussion and conclusion. Mixed methods are used as research strategy in this thesis, and the method to conduct the research is based on telephone interviews for the primary (qualitative) data, and documents and desk research for the secondary (quantitative) data. The gathered data is analyzed and designed in a way that allows the usage of comparative analysis technique to present the findings and draw conclusions. The results showed that new established Ikea retail store outside the city boundaries results with many effects on the city center and on the neighboring municipalities as well. The city center seems not to be affected negatively, but on the contrary positive effects were witnessed in both regions, these positive effects are linked to the increase inflow of customers from the external retail area which is known as spillover effect. III On the other hand, the neighboring towns and municipalities are more negatively affected especially with the trade of con-convenience goods as the consumers in these towns and municipalities start to go to the area of Ikea and the large external retail center to do their purchasing, the substitution effect is then said to be occurred. Moreover, the further far municipalities do not seem to be significantly affected by the establishment of Ikea. These effects whether positive or negative could be monitored by looking to few trade parameters such as the turnover, the sales index, and the consumers’ expenditure, these parameters can be very useful to measure the developments and changes in the trade and retail in a given place. 

Monopoly power, trade protection and growth: cross industry evidence

This paper investigates the impact of monopoly power on trade policy. Annual panel-databases of Brazilian industries for the years 1988 through 1994 were used. The regressions reported here are robust to openness indicator, concentration index, control variables and sample size, and suggest that industries with higher monopoly power are more protected than competitive sectors. In the period of study the country experienced a major trade liberalization, but the results in the paper show that the reduction in protection was smaller in sectors with higher monopoly power. We thus have evidence favoring recent growth literature which stresses that interest groups with control over creasing productivity. The results here confirm the first part of this argument and show that organized groups in fact are able to obtain policy advantages that reduce competition.

Human growth, biological maturation, motor performance and contextual factors in Madeira children

The central aims of this study were: (1) to construct age- and gender-specific percentiles for motor coordination (MC), (2) to analyze the change, stability, and prediction of MC, (3) to investigate the relationship between motor performance and body fatness, and (4) to evaluate the relationships between skeletal maturation and fundamental motor skills (FMS) and MC. The data collected was from the ‘Healthy Growth of Madeira Children Study’ and from the ‘Madeira Child Growth Study’. In these studies, MC, FMS, skeletal age, growth characteristics, motor performance, physical activity, socioeconomic status, and geographical area were assessed/measured. Generalized additive models for location, scale and shape, mixed between-within subjects ANOVA, multilevel models, and hierarchical regression (blocks) were some of the statistical procedures used in the analyses. Scores on walking backwards and moving sideways improved with age. It was also found that boys performed better than girls on moving sideways. Normal-weight children outperformed obese peers in almost all gross MC tests. Inter-age correlations were calculated to be between 0.15 and 0.60. Age was associated with a better performance in catching, scramble, speed run, standing long jump, balance, and tennis ball throwing. Body mass index was positively associated with scramble and speed run, and negatively related to the standing long jump. Physical activity was negatively associated with scramble. Semi-urban children displayed better catching skills relative to their urban peers. The standardized residual of skeletal age on chronological age (SAsr) and its interaction with stature and/or body mass accounted for the maximum of 7.0% of variance in FMS and MC over that attributed to body size per se. SAsr alone accounted for a maximum of 9.0% variance in FMS and MC over that attributed to body size per se and interactions between SAsr and body size. This study demonstrates the need to promote FMS, MC, motor performance, and physical activity in children.

Estratégia reprodutiva do peixe hermafrodita mussum, Synbranchus marmoratus Osteichthyes, Synbranchidae em um açude do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Reproductive strategy of the hermaphrodite fish the marbled swamp eel, Synbranchus marmoratus (Bloch, 1795) (Osteichthyes: Synbranchidae) was investigated in the Marechal Dutra reservoir, Acari, Rio Grande do Norte, using fish samples captured monthly during the period of July 2010 to July 2011. The limnological parameters and rainfall were verified. The captured fish specimens were numbered, weighed, measured, dissected and their gonads and liver were removed, weighed and identified as to sex and developmental stages of gonads. The length-weight relationship was determined for grouped sex. The size of first gonadal maturation, gonadosomatic index (GSI), condition factor (K) and hepatosomatic index (HSI) were calculated. The development stages of the gonads were investigated using macroscopic and histological techniques, besides the fecundity and reproductive period. The macroscopic characteristics and the histological development of gonads confirmed the four different sexual types in the sampled population: primary males, females, intersex and secondary males. The secondary males were bigger and heavier than all the other types. This species showed a negative allometric growth with a higher increase in length than weight. The size at which 50% of the females began the process of gonadal maturation was 43.5 cm of total length, and for secondary males it was 58.5 cm. Condition factor showed two peaks in February and in April 2011. IGS indicated a reproductive period from July to September 2010 and was negatively correlated with the condition factor and rainfall. IGS showed a negative correlation when compared with the condition factor and the rainy season. HSI was highest in February ad lowest in December. The reproductive period of this species occurs between the end of the rainy season and the beginning of the dry season. S. marmoratus presents a seasonal reproductive strategy which optimizes its reproductive success under the semiarid climatic conditions