Monetary policy strategies, financial institutions and financial markets in the Middle East and North Africa: an overview

Three polar types of monetary architecture are identified together with the institutional and market infrastructure required for each type and the kinds of monetary policy feasible in each case: a ‘basic’ architecture where there is little or no financial system as such but an elementary central bank which is able to fix the exchange rate, as a substitute for a proper monetary policy; a ‘modern’ monetary architecture with developed banks, financial markets and central bank where policy choices include types of inflation targeting; and an ‘intermediate’ monetary architecture where less market-based monetary policies involving less discretion are feasible. A range of data is used to locate the various MENA countries with respect to these polar types. Five countries (Iran, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) are identified as those with the least developed monetary architecture, while Bahrain and Jordan are identified as the group at the other end of the spectrum, reaching beyond the intermediate polar type in some dimensions but not others. The countries in between vary on different dimensions but all lie between basic and intermediate architectures. The key general findings are that the MENA countries are both less differentiated and less ‘developed’ than might have been expected. The paper ends by calling for research on the costs and benefits of different types of monetary architecture.

From central Atlantic continental rift to Neogene uplift - western Anti-Atlas (Morocco)

P>To put constraints on the Mesozoic to recent growth of the Anti-Atlas system, we investigated the temperature-time history of rocks by applying extensive low-temperature thermochronological analysis to three Precambrian inliers along the coast and 250 km into the interior. Bedrocks yield old U-Th/He ages on zircon (248-193 Ma) and apatite (150-50 Ma) and also fission-track ages of 173-121 Ma on apatite. These datasets are interpreted as recording passive margin upward movements from central Atlantic rifting until the Early Cretaceous. A phase of sedimentary burial was evidenced for the Cretaceous-Eocene. The extension of this thin (1.5 km) basin is loosely constrained but can be extended to the western regions of northern Africa. Effects of the existing thermal perturbation of lithospheric origin 100 km below the Atlas show that the 120-60 degrees C isotherms are not much deflected. Large-scale uplift has possibly occurred in the western Anti-Atlas since c. 30 Ma and is associated with a mean denudation rate of 0.08 km Ma-1.

HIV/AIDS-associated visceral leishmaniasis in patients from an endemic area in Central-west Brazil

An increase in morbidity associated with visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/AIDS patients has been described in Africa and the Mediterranean. Despite the high endemicity of VL and HIV-1/AIDS in Brazil, this association has not been thoroughly investigated. Our aim was to evaluate the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of VL-HIV-1/AIDS cases from Central-west [Mato Grosso do Sul (MS)] Brazil. Medical records of 23 VL-HIV-1/AIDS patients were reviewed. Patients were predominantly adult males (87%) and 34.8% of the patients were intravenous drug users (IVDU). Leishmaniasis was the first opportunistic infection in 60% of the HIV-1 patients. Fever occurred in all patients, although splenomegaly and hepatomegaly were absent in 21.7% of the cases. CD4+ T-cell counts were below 200 cells/mm³ in 80% of the cases and the counts did not increase after clinical remission despite antiretroviral therapy. The first drug chosen to treat the cases was antimonial, but the therapeutic regimen was altered to amphotericin B in 12 of 17 cases due to side effects. Relapses were reported in 56.5% of the patients. IVDU may constitute an important risk factor for the transmission of both diseases in MS. VL-HIV-1/AIDS patients in MS share similar clinical characteristics as those from other endemic regions worldwide. Thus, these findings are critical for improving the surveillance of VL-HIV/AIDS patients.

Jurassic sedimentary record and tectonic evolution of the northwestern corner of Africa

The history of the opening seaway from the westernmost Tethys to the Central Atlantic is traced by the analysis of the sedimentary facies development in the external Rif basin of Northern Morocco and the geological and seismic data from the Moroccan Atlantic continental margin. In the Rif basin, after the early Sinemurian, sedimentary facies dated by ammonites, foraminifers and brachiopods, indicate a progression of rapid subsidence resulting from extensional tectonic (tilted blocks, escarpment fault breccias, neptunian dykes etc.) from the N and NE to the S and SW. From the Toarcian to the Bajocian, deltas progress from the W and SW into the `'Rides sud-rifaines'' realm. From the late Bathonian to the Oxfordian, deep-sea fans develop in the external Rif. During the same period, deltaic sediments fill in the Middle Atlas basin of Eastern Morocco and progress into the external Rif. The top of the Jurassic is characterised by carbonate deposits. At the northwestern corner of Africa, the subsidence of the sedimentary basins by rifting is initiated in the late Triassic; however, at the Mazagan transect of the Atlantic continental margin, the tectonic pattern characteristic of a passive continental margin appears clearly only in the early Jurassic. At the foot of the Mazagan escarpment, the sedimentary record shows a foundering of the first bloc during early to middle Lias. A thermal uplift phase is indicated by emersion of the African margin shoulder in late Liassic, and thermal relaxation starts in the middle Jurassic. The morphology of this transect, compared with the conjugate side of the American continent is most easily explained by the uniform sense simple shear model.

The economic tragedy of the XXth Century: Growth in Africa

The dismal growth performance of Africa is the worst economic tragedy ofthe XXth century. We document the evolution of per capita GDP for thecontinent as a whole and for subset of countries south of the Saharadesert. We document the worsening of various income inequality indexesand we estimate poverty rates and headcounts. We then analyze some ofthe central robust determinants of economic growth reported bySala-i-Martin, Doppelhofer and Miller (2003) and project the annual growthrates Africa would have enjoyed if these key determinants had taken OECDrather than African values. Expensive investment goods, low levels ofeducation, poor health, adverse geography, closed economies, too muchpublic expenditure and too many military conflicts are seen as keyexplanations of the economic tragedy.

Reconceptualizing Chinese state-owned entreprise in Africa : double embeddedness and localization in Ghana

Challenging the view of asymmetrical power relations between China and Africa, this thesis questions the "Chinese comparative advantages" (monolithic state power and economic advantages) of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in Africa. It argues that the power dynamics between Chinese and African actors are dialectical and pluralistic, with localized social capital representing the true Chinese competitive advantage in Africa. Based on ethnographical fieldwork conducted in Ghana, this thesis shows that Chinese SOEs pursue their globalization in a double context - that of the deliberate "retreat" of the Chinese state, and more importantly, that of Ghanaian governance and society (characterized by political party patronage, extraversion dynamics, and worker agency). The trajectories of Chinese expatriates' expatriation/ social promotion and their SOEs' globalization/ localization are mutually influenced and reinforced. By cultivating local relationships and knowledge, a provincial Chinese SOE in Ghana can outperform a large Chinese central SOE, even if the latter has more support from the Chinese state. Moreover, the recent effort to build a "socially acceptable Chinese community" in Ghana has renewed the power dynamics between the Chinese state and the SOEs. All these observations provide for constructing a new perspective of Chinese SOEs in Africa - a "second-class" Chinese globalization - the SOEs may begin with few privileges, but promotion over time is possible. -- A contre pied des approches postulant des relations de pouvoir asymétriques entre la Chine et l'Afrique, cette thèse interroge les « avantages comparatifs chinois » (pouvoir de l'État monolithique et avantages économiques) des entreprises publiques chinoises (EPC) en Afrique. Elle soutient l'idée selon laquelle les dynamiques de pouvoir entre les acteurs chinois et africains est dialectique et pluraliste, et le capital social localisé étant le véritable avantage compétitif chinois en Afrique. S'appuyant sur un travail de terrain ethnographique au Ghana, cette thèse montre que les EPC poursuivent leur mondialisation dans un double contexte - celui de la «retraite» délibérée de l'État chinois, et, de façon plus importante, celui de la gouvernance et de la société ghanéennes (caractérisées par un clientélisme des partis politiques, une dynamique d'extraversion et le pouvoir de négociation des travailleurs). Les trajectoires d'expatriation / de promotion sociale des expatriés chinois et la mondialisation / localisation de leurs EPC s'influencent et se renforcent mutuellement. En cultivant des relations et des connaissances locales, une EPC provinciale au Ghana peut surpasser une grande EPC centrale, même si cette dernière reçoit plus de soutien de l'État chinois. En outre, les efforts récents visant à construire une «communauté chinoise socialement acceptable» au Ghana ont renouvelé la dynamique du pouvoir entre l'État chinois et les EPC. Ces observations permettent de construire une nouvelle perspective des EPC en Afrique - la globalisation chinoise de « deuxième classe » - les EPC peuvent débuter avec peu de privilèges, mais leur promotion reste possible avec le temps.

Clinico-Pathological discrepancies in the Diagnosis of Causes of Maternal Death in Sub-Saharan Africa: Retrospective Analysis

Background Maternal mortality is a major public-health problem in developing countries. Extreme differences in maternal mortality rates between developed and developing countries indicate that most of these deaths are preventable. Most information on the causes of maternal death in these areas is based on clinical records and verbal autopsies. Clinical diagnostic errors may play a significant role in this problem and might also have major implications for the evaluation of current estimations of causes of maternal death. Methods and Findings A retrospective analysis of clinico-pathologic correlation was carried out, using necropsy as the gold standard for diagnosis. All maternal autopsies (n ¼ 139) during the period from October 2002 to December 2004 at the Maputo Central Hospital, Mozambique were included and major diagnostic discrepancies were analyzed (i.e., those involving the cause of death). Major diagnostic errors were detected in 56 (40.3%) maternal deaths. A high rate of false negative diagnoses was observed for infectious diseases, which showed sensitivities under 50%: HIV/AIDS-related conditions (33.3%), pyogenic bronchopneumonia (35.3%), pyogenic meningitis (40.0%), and puerperal septicemia (50.0%). Eclampsia, was the main source of false positive diagnoses, showing a low predictive positive value (42.9%). Conclusions Clinico-pathological discrepancies may have a significant impact on maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and question the validity of reports based on clinical data or verbal autopsies. Increasing clinical awareness of the impact of obstetric and nonobstetric infections with their inclusion in the differential diagnosis, together with a thorough evaluation of cases clinically thought to be eclampsia, could have a significant impact on the reduction of maternal mortality.

Clinico-Pathological discrepancies in the Diagnosis of Causes of Maternal Death in Sub-Saharan Africa: Retrospective Analysis

Background Maternal mortality is a major public-health problem in developing countries. Extreme differences in maternal mortality rates between developed and developing countries indicate that most of these deaths are preventable. Most information on the causes of maternal death in these areas is based on clinical records and verbal autopsies. Clinical diagnostic errors may play a significant role in this problem and might also have major implications for the evaluation of current estimations of causes of maternal death. Methods and Findings A retrospective analysis of clinico-pathologic correlation was carried out, using necropsy as the gold standard for diagnosis. All maternal autopsies (n ¼ 139) during the period from October 2002 to December 2004 at the Maputo Central Hospital, Mozambique were included and major diagnostic discrepancies were analyzed (i.e., those involving the cause of death). Major diagnostic errors were detected in 56 (40.3%) maternal deaths. A high rate of false negative diagnoses was observed for infectious diseases, which showed sensitivities under 50%: HIV/AIDS-related conditions (33.3%), pyogenic bronchopneumonia (35.3%), pyogenic meningitis (40.0%), and puerperal septicemia (50.0%). Eclampsia, was the main source of false positive diagnoses, showing a low predictive positive value (42.9%). Conclusions Clinico-pathological discrepancies may have a significant impact on maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and question the validity of reports based on clinical data or verbal autopsies. Increasing clinical awareness of the impact of obstetric and nonobstetric infections with their inclusion in the differential diagnosis, together with a thorough evaluation of cases clinically thought to be eclampsia, could have a significant impact on the reduction of maternal mortality.

The Global War on Terrorism in the Horn of Africa

Ever since Siad Barre’s regime was toppled in the beginning of the 1990’s Somalia has been without an effective central government. As a result Somalia has remained in an anarchic condition of state collapse for nearly two decades. This anarchy has often been put forward as a potential breeding ground for terrorism. As a response to this threat the United States has undertaken several policies, initiatives, and operations in the Horn of Africa generally and in Somalia specifically. In this descriptive study a twofold analysis has been undertaken. First, conditions in present day Somalia as well as Somali history have been analyzed to evaluate the potential Somalia holds as a terrorist base of operations or a recruiting- or staging area. Second, US strategies and actions have been analyzed to evaluate the adequacy of the US response to the threat Somalia poses in terms of terrorism. Material for the analyses have been derived from anthropological, political, and security studies dealing with Somalia. This material has been augmented by a wide range of news coverage, western and non-western. Certain different US policy documents from different levels have been chosen to represent US strategies for the Global War on Terrorism. Because Somali social institutions, such as the clan system, hold great weight in Somali society, Somalia is a difficult area of operations for terrorist networks. In addition the changing nature of Somali alliances and the tangled webs of conflict that characterize present day Somalia aggravate the difficulties that foreign terrorist networks would encounter in Somalia, would they choose to try to utilize it in any great extent. The US has taken potential terrorism threats in Africa and specifically Somalia very seriously. US actions in Somalia have mainly focused on apprehending or neutralizing terror suspects. Such policies, coupled with backing the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia may have actually turned out increasing Somalia’s terror potential.

Phytoplankton species diversity of 27 lakes and ponds of Costa Rica (Central America)

The literature on species diversity of phytoplankton of tropical lakes is scarce, and for the main part comes from studies of the big lakes in Africa, or deep lakes in South America, leaving a gap in the information about small shallow tropical lakes. In the present work the phytoplankton species composition and diversity of 27 shallow lakes and ponds in Costa Rica (Central America) was studied. The species composition was found to agree with other studies of tropical lakes, with a dominance of Chlorophyta, Cyanophyta, or in some cases Bacillariophyta or Euglenophyta; and a general paucity of Chrysophyta and Cryptophyta. Species richness varied considerably among the lakes, and tended to decrease with an increase in lake elevation. A low evenness in the species abundances was found, with one or more species outnumbering the rest by several orders of magnitude. Individual species abundances and species composition was found to vary with time in Rio Cuarto Lake, a meromictic lake situated in a region with low seasonal change in precipitation. In comparison with the phytoplankton of temperate lakes, the phytoplankton of the tropical lakes studied tended to have a lower evenness of species abundances, although species richness may be similar to temperate figures in some cases. Diversity indices sensitive to changes in the abundance of rare species tend to be higher in the tropical lakes studied; diversity indices sensitive to changes in the numbers of abundant species tend to be similar between the temperate and tropical lakes examined.

Perception of quality in certified organic pineapples by farmers in Kayunga district, Central Uganda: Implications for food security

In East Africa, Uganda is one of the major producers of organic pineapples for export. These pineapples are mainly produced in central Uganda and have to meet stringent quality standards before they can be allowed on international markets. These quality standards may put considerable strain on farmers and may not be wholly representative of their quality interpretation. The aim of this paper is therefore, to determine the Ugandan organic pineapple farmers’ quality perception, the activities they carry out in order to attain that quality and challenges (production, postharvest & marketing) faced on the same. Qualitative semi-structured interviews were carried out among 28 organic pineapple farmers in Kayunga district, central Uganda. Findings suggest that quality of organic pineapples is mainly perceived in terms of product attributes particularly appearance followed by food security provision. Certification plays a minor role in what farmers describe as organic quality. High production input costs (labour and coffee husks) coupled with a stagnant premium are some of the major challenges faced by farmers in attaining organic quality. The paper argues that currently there are concealed negative food security effects embroiled in these pineapple schemes. It is recommended that the National Organic Agricultural Movement of Uganda (NOGAMU) works with all relevant stakeholders to have the farmer premium price raised and an official organic policy enacted.

Analisis de la politica exterior china para Africa Subsahariana en materia politica y energetica. Una aproximacion a la relacion sino sudanesa. Periodo 1996 - 2005

Este trabajo explica las razones por las cuales China se estrecha sus vinculos con Afirca. El tema principal es el inicio de la relacion sino-sudanesa y la evolucion de esta hasta el fin de la guerra civil en Sudan.

Influence of south Atlantic sea surface temperatures on rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa

It is generally agreed that changing climate variability, and the associated change in climate extremes, may have a greater impact on environmentally vulnerable regions than a changing mean. This research investigates rainfall variability, rainfall extremes, and their associations with atmospheric and oceanic circulations over southern Africa, a region that is considered particularly vulnerable to extreme events because of numerous environmental, social, and economic pressures. Because rainfall variability is a function of scale, high-resolution data are needed to identify extreme events. Thus, this research uses remotely sensed rainfall data and climate model experiments at high spatial and temporal resolution, with the overall aim being to investigate the ways in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. Extreme rainfall identification is achieved by the high-resolution microwave/infrared rainfall algorithm dataset. This comprises satellite-derived daily rainfall from 1993 to 2002 and covers southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° latitude–longitude. Extremes are extracted and used with reanalysis data to study possible circulation anomalies associated with extreme rainfall. Anomalously cold SSTs in the central South Atlantic and warm SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa seem to be statistically related to rainfall extremes. Further, through a number of idealized climate model experiments, it would appear that both decreasing SSTs in the central South Atlantic and increasing SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa lead to a demonstrable increase in daily rainfall and rainfall extremes over southern Africa, via local effects such as increased convection and remote effects such as an adjustment of the Walker-type circulation.

Cross-hemispheric transport of Central African biomass burning pollutants: Implications for downwind ozone production

Pollutant plumes with enhanced concentrations of trace gases and aerosols were observed over the southern coast of West Africa during August 2006 as part of the AMMA wet season field campaign. Plumes were observed both in the mid and upper troposphere. In this study we examined the origin of these pollutant plumes, and their potential to photochemically produce ozone (O3) downwind over the Atlantic Ocean. Their possible contribution to the Atlantic O3 maximum is also discussed. Runs using the BOLAM mesoscale model including biomass burning carbon monoxide (CO) tracers were used to confirm an origin from central African biomass burning fires. The plumes measured in the mid troposphere (MT) had significantly higher pollutant concentrations over West Africa compared to the upper tropospheric (UT) plume. The mesoscale model reproduces these differences and the two different pathways for the plumes at different altitudes: transport to the north-east of the fire region, moist convective uplift and transport to West Africa for the upper tropospheric plume versus north-west transport over the Gulf of Guinea for the mid-tropospheric plume. Lower concentrations in the upper troposphere are mainly due to enhanced mixing during upward transport. Model simulations suggest that MT and UT plumes are 16 and 14 days old respectively when measured over West Africa. The ratio of tracer concentrations at 600 hPa and 250 hPa was estimated for 14–15 August in the region of the observed plumes and compares well with the same ratio derived from observed carbon dioxide (CO2) enhancements in both plumes. It is estimated that, for the period 1–15 August, the ratio of Biomass Burning (BB) tracer concentration transported in the UT to the ones transported in the MT is 0.6 over West Africa and the equatorial South Atlantic. Runs using a photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, initialized with the observations, were used to estimate in-situ net photochemical O3 production rates in these plumes during transport downwind of West Africa. The mid-troposphere plume spreads over altitude between 1.5 and 6 km over the Atlantic Ocean. Even though the plume was old, it was still very photochemically active (mean net O3 production rates over 10 days of 2.6 ppbv/day and up to 7 ppbv/day during the first days) above 3 km especially during the first few days of transport westward. It is also shown that the impact of high aerosol loads in the MT plume on photolysis rates serves to delay the peak in modelled O3 concentrations. These results suggest that a significant fraction of enhanced O3 in mid-troposphere over the Atlantic comes from BB sources during the summer monsoon period. According to simulated occurrence of such transport, BB may be the main source for O3 enhancement in the equatorial south Atlantic MT, at least in August 2006. The upper tropospheric plume was also still photochemically active, although mean net O3 production rates were slower (1.3 ppbv/day). The results suggest that, whilst the transport of BB pollutants to the UT is variable (as shown by the mesoscale model simulations), pollution from biomass burning can make an important contribution to additional photochemical production of O3 in addition to other important sources such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) from lightning.

Tropical-extratropical interactions over Southern Africa: three cases of heavy summer season rainfall

The synoptic evolution of three tropical–extratropical (TE) interactions, each responsible for extreme rainfall events over southern Africa, is discussed in detail. Along with the consideration of previously studied events, common features of these heavy rainfall producing tropical temperate troughs (TTTs) over southern Africa are discussed. It is found that 2 days prior to an event, northeasterly moisture transports across Botswana, set up by the Angola low, are diverted farther south into the semiarid region of subtropical southern Africa. The TTTs reach full maturity as a TE cloud band, rooted in the central subcontinent, which is triggered by upper-level divergence along the leading edge of an upper-tropospheric westerly wave trough. Convection and rainfall within the cloud band is supported by poleward moisture transports with subtropical air rising as it leaves the continent and joins the midlatitude westerly flow. It is shown that these systems fit within a theoretical framework describing similar TE interactions found globally. Uplift forcing for the extreme rainfall of each event is investigated. Unsurprisingly, quasigeostrophic uplift is found to dominate in the midlatitudes with convective processes strongest in the subtropics. Rainfall in the semiarid interior of South Africa appears to be a result of quasigeostrophically triggered convection. Investigation of TTT formation in the context of planetary waves shows that early development is sometimes associated with previous anticyclonic wave breaking south of the subcontinent, with full maturity of TTTs occurring as a potential vorticity trough approaches the continent from the west. Sensitivity to upstream wave perturbations and effects on anticyclonic wave breaking in the South Indian Ocean are also observed.