Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Appearance of red mark syndrome / cold water strawberry disease in Switzerland and Austria

Red mark syndrome (RMS) or cold water strawberry disease (CWSD) is a non-lethal skin disease of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss that is of high economic importance in the UK. The disease is temperature-dependent, with up to 60% morbidity at water temperatures below 15 degrees C. Although CWSD is horizontally transmissible, the aetiology is still unknown. Here we describe the first cases of RMS on the European mainland in the alpine regions of Switzerland and Austria. In Switzerland, morbidity remained around 1% after the first outbreak, whereas in Austria no further cases were diagnosed.

Die Juden der Frei- und Reichsstadt Dortmund und der Grafschaft Mark

Münster, Univ., Diss., 1913

Annalen der Juden in den preußischen Staaten besonders in der Mark Brandenburg

[Anton Balthasar König]

Judarna på svensk mark : historien om israeliternas invandring till Sverige

av Eskil Olán

A patterned abrasion caused by the impact of a cartridge case may simulate an atypical muzzle imprint mark.

In contact shots, the muzzle imprint is an informative finding associated with the entrance wound. It typically mirrors the constructional components being in line with the muzzle or just behind. Under special conditions, other patterned skin marks located near a gunshot entrance wound may give the impression to be part of the muzzle imprint. A potential mechanism causing a patterned pressure abrasion in close proximity to the bullet entrance site is demonstrated on the basis of a suicidal shot to the temple. The skin lesion in question appeared as a ring-shaped excoriation with a diameter corresponding to that of the cartridge case. Two hypotheses concerning the causative mechanism were investigated by test shots: - After being ejected, the cartridge case ricocheted inside a confined space (car cabin in the particular case) and secondarily hit the skin near the gunshot entrance wound. - The ejection of the cartridge case failed so that the case became stuck in the ejection port and its mouth contacted the skin when the body collapsed after being hit.

Die Bürgerwehr besonders in Berlin : in der Sitzung des Vereins für Geschichte der Mark Brandenburg am 12. April vorgetragen

Boberach: Die Berliner Bürgerwehr wird in die Tradition der Bürgeraufgebote von 1440 und 1626, der 1515 und 1705 erlassenen Vorschriften für die Bewaffnung und der erst 1825 aufgehobenen Bürgerwehr gestellt

Der Vorwurf der Hostienschändung und das erste Auftreten der Juden in der Mark Brandenburg

Hans Lichtenstein

Mark Antokolski [Illustration] : (Porträt)

Scan von Monochrom-Mikroform

Mark Günzburg [Illustration] : Basrelief

Mark Antokolski

Büste des Mark Twain [Illustration]

Theresa Feodorowna Ries