A Bayesian Spatial Mixture Model for FMRI Analysis

We develop, implement and study a new Bayesian spatial mixture model (BSMM). The proposed BSMM allows for spatial structure in the binary activation indicators through a latent thresholded Gaussian Markov random field. We develop a Gibbs (MCMC) sampler to perform posterior inference on the model parameters, which then allows us to assess the posterior probabilities of activation for each voxel. One purpose of this article is to compare the HJ model and the BSMM in terms of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Also we consider the accuracy of the spatial mixture model and the BSMM for estimation of the size of the activation region in terms of bias, variance and mean squared error. We perform a simulation study to examine the aforementioned characteristics under a variety of configurations of spatial mixture model and BSMM both as the size of the region changes and as the magnitude of activation changes.

Effects of Temperature–Climate Patterns on the Production of Some Competitive Species on Grounds of Modelling

Climate change has serious effects on the setting up and the operation of natural ecosystems. Small increase in temperature could cause rise in the amount of some species or potential disappearance of others. During our researches, the dispersion of the species and biomass production of a theoretical ecosystem were examined on the effect of the temperature–climate change. The answers of the ecosystems which are given to the climate change could be described by means of global climate modelling and dynamic vegetation models. The examination of the operation of the ecosystems is only possible in huge centres on supercomputers because of the number and the complexity of the calculation. The number of the calculation could be decreased to the level of a PC by considering the temperature and the reproduction during modelling a theoretical ecosystem, and several important theoretical questions could be answered.

The role of neighborhood organizations in the production of gentrifiable urban space: The case of Wynwood, Miami's Puerto Rican barrio

Partnerships between government and community-based actors and organizations are considered the hallmark of contemporary governance arrangements for the revitalization and gentrification of economically distressed, inner city areas. This dissertation uses historical, narrative analysis and ethnographic methods to examine the formation, evolution and operation of community-based governance partnerships in the production of gentrifiable urban space in the Wynwood neighborhood of Miami, FL between 1970 and 2010. This research is based on more than four years of participant observation, 60 in-depth interviews with respondents recruited through a purposive snowball sample, review of secondary and archival sources, and descriptive, statistical and GIS analysis. This study examines how different organizations formed in the neighborhood since the 1970s have facilitated the recent gentrification of Wynwood. It reveals specifically how partnerships between neighborhood-based government agencies, nonprofit organizations and real estate developers were constructed to be exclusionary and lead to inequitable economic development outcomes for Wynwood residents. The key factors conditioning these inequalities include both the rationalities of action of the organizations involved and the historical contexts in which their leaders’ thinking and actions were shaped. The historical contexts included the ethnic politics of organizational funding in the 1970s and the “entrepreneurial” turn of community-based economic development and Miami urban politics since the 1980s. Over time neighborhood organizations adopted highly pragmatic rationalities and repertoires of action. By the 2000s when Wynwood experienced unprecedented investment and redevelopment, the pragmatism of community-based organizations led them to become junior partners in governance arrangements and neighborhood activists were unable to directly challenge the inequitable processes and outcomes of gentrification.

Nonlinear soil-structure interaction for buried pressure pipes under differential ground motion

Pipelines extend thousands of kilometers across wide geographic areas as a network to provide essential services for modern life. It is inevitable that pipelines must pass through unfavorable ground conditions, which are susceptible to natural disasters. This thesis investigates the behaviour of buried pressure pipelines experiencing ground distortions induced by normal faulting. A recent large database of physical modelling observations on buried pipes of different stiffness relative to the surrounding soil subjected to normal faults provided a unique opportunity to calibrate numerical tools. Three-dimensional finite element models were developed to enable the complex soil-structure interaction phenomena to be further understood, especially on the subjects of gap formation beneath the pipe and the trench effect associated with the interaction between backfill and native soils. Benchmarked numerical tools were then used to perform parametric analysis regarding project geometry, backfill material, relative pipe-soil stiffness and pipe diameter. Seismic loading produces a soil displacement profile that can be expressed by isoil, the distance between the peak curvature and the point of contraflexure. A simplified design framework based on this length scale (i.e., the Kappa method) was developed, which features estimates of longitudinal bending moments of buried pipes using a characteristic length, ipipe, the distance from peak to zero curvature. Recent studies indicated that empirical soil springs that were calibrated against rigid pipes are not suitable for analyzing flexible pipes, since they lead to excessive conservatism (for design). A large-scale split-box normal fault simulator was therefore assembled to produce experimental data for flexible PVC pipe responses to a normal fault. Digital image correlation (DIC) was employed to analyze the soil displacement field, and both optical fibres and conventional strain gauges were used to measure pipe strains. A refinement to the Kappa method was introduced to enable the calculation of axial strains as a function of pipe elongation induced by flexure and an approximation of the longitudinal ground deformations. A closed-form Winkler solution of flexural response was also derived to account for the distributed normal fault pattern. Finally, these two analytical solutions were evaluated against the pipe responses observed in the large-scale laboratory tests.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift

Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

Compositional data analysis of Holocene sediments from the West Bengal Sundarbans, India: Geochemical proxies for grain-size variability in a delta environment

This paper is part of a special issue of Applied Geochemistry focusing on reliable applications of compositional multivariate statistical methods. This study outlines the application of compositional data analysis (CoDa) to calibration of geochemical data and multivariate statistical modelling of geochemistry and grain-size data from a set of Holocene sedimentary cores from the Ganges-Brahmaputra (G-B) delta. Over the last two decades, understanding near-continuous records of sedimentary sequences has required the use of core-scanning X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectrometry, for both terrestrial and marine sedimentary sequences. Initial XRF data are generally unusable in ‘raw-format’, requiring data processing in order to remove instrument bias, as well as informed sequence interpretation. The applicability of these conventional calibration equations to core-scanning XRF data are further limited by the constraints posed by unknown measurement geometry and specimen homogeneity, as well as matrix effects. Log-ratio based calibration schemes have been developed and applied to clastic sedimentary sequences focusing mainly on energy dispersive-XRF (ED-XRF) core-scanning. This study has applied high resolution core-scanning XRF to Holocene sedimentary sequences from the tidal-dominated Indian Sundarbans, (Ganges-Brahmaputra delta plain). The Log-Ratio Calibration Equation (LRCE) was applied to a sub-set of core-scan and conventional ED-XRF data to quantify elemental composition. This provides a robust calibration scheme using reduced major axis regression of log-ratio transformed geochemical data. Through partial least squares (PLS) modelling of geochemical and grain-size data, it is possible to derive robust proxy information for the Sundarbans depositional environment. The application of these techniques to Holocene sedimentary data offers an improved methodological framework for unravelling Holocene sedimentation patterns.

Keskipakoispuhaltimen siipipyörän lujuusteknisen mitoituksen kehittäminen

Tässä työssä on tutkittu prosessipuhaltimena käytettävän keskipakoispuhaltimen lujuusteknistä mitoitusta. Työn tavoitteena on ollut luoda analyyttisiä laskentakaavoja Koja Oy:n käyttöön tulevaisuuden tuotekehityksen tueksi. Tavoitteena on ollut tutkia myös siipien ja etu- ja takalevyn kiinnityshitsejä ja antaa työkaluja siipipyörän väsymismitoitukseen. Kirjallisuuskatkauksessa löytyi muutamia raportoituja tapauksia, jossa keskipakoispuhallin on vaurioitunut käytön aikana. Yhtenäisenä tekijänä kaikille tapauksille on ollut hitsausliitoksen väsyminen. Väsyttävän kuormituksen raportoiduissa tapauksissa on aiheuttanut siipipyörän värähtely. Väsyminen on alkanut siiven kiinnitysliitoksista hitsin rajaviivalta, siipipyörän ulkokehältä. Siipipyörän analysointiin on käytetty analyyttisiä laskentakaavoja ja elementtimenetelmää. Analyyttisten laskentakaavojen tuottaminen on muuten monimutkaiselle rakenteelle hyvin työlästä ja aikaa vievää. Staattisessa tarkastelussa elementtimenetelmällä siipipyörän mallintamiseen on käytetty keskipintamallia. Lisäksi laskentatiedostojen kokoa on pystytty rajaamaan syklisesti symmetrisen rakenteen ansiosta. Siipipyörän väsymistarkastelu on suoritettu tehollisen lovijännityksen menetelmällä, jossa tarkasteltavan hitsin rajaviivoille ja juureen on elementtimenetelmässä mallinnettu r=1 mm suuruinen lovi, josta jännityksen on luettu. Elementtimenetelmässä laskentaohjelmistona on käytetty Abaqus 6.14.1 -laskentaohjelmistoa. Analyyttisten laskentakaavojen kehityksessä on päästy hyvin lähelle elementtimenetelmästä saatuja vastaavia tuloksia. Analyyttisten kaavojen antamat tulokset eroavat kuitenkin sen verran virhettä, että varsinainen tarkka laskenta on syytä suorittaa ennen lopullisen konstruktion määrittämistä. Tehollisella lovijännitysmenetelmällä on saatu määritettyä rakenteen kriittisin kohta, jonka kestoikä on 36 400 sykliä. Tutkimuksen pohjalta Koja Oy on saanut hyvät edellytykset jatkaa tutkimusta lopun tuoteperheen parantamiseen.

Influência da gestão do habitat na distribuição e abundância do coelho-bravo no Sítio Natura 2000 Monchique

O coelho-bravo, devido à sua importância ecológica e económica, tem sido alvo de diversos planos de gestão e vários esforços têm sido empreendidos no sentido de contrariar o decréscimo das suas populações. Este estudo foi realizado em três zonas de caça do Sítio Monchique e o principal objectivo é determinar se as medidas de gestão implementadas influenciam a distribuição e abundância da espécie na área de estudo. A abundância relativa foi interpolada com o método "Inverso do Peso da Distância" {IDW), e as relações entre presença de coelho e os descritores ambientais foram analisadas através de Modelos Lineares Generalizados (GLM). Os resultados da modelação estatística mostraram que as medidas de melhoria de habitat parecem ter sido determinantes para um aumento da área de distribuição do coelho-bravo nos locais intervencionados. São propostas novas medidas de gestão, cujo objectivo será promover a continuação do aumento da ocorrência e abundância da espécie neste local. /ABSTRACT: The wild rabbit, due to its ecological and economical role, has been the target of several management plans and considerable efforts have been made to enhance its populations. This study was held in three game estates located inside Monchique Natura 2000. Site and aims to determine if the habitat management actions implemented in the study area influence rabbit distribution and abundance. The relative abundance was interpolated to all study area with lnverse Distance Weight method {IDW} and the relationships between rabbit presence and the environmental descriptors were evaluated with Generalized Linear Models (GLM). The results of the statistical modelling showed that the management actions seem to have contributed significantly to an enhancement on the rabbit occurrence in the studied game estates. Several new management actions are proposed with the aim to continue to increase rabbit occurrence and abundance in this site.

SIMULATING LARGE DEFORMATION OF INTRANEURAL GANGLION CYST USING FINITE ELEMENT METHOD

Intraneural Ganglion Cyst is disorder observed in the nerve injury, it is still unknown and very difficult to predict its propagation in the human body so many times it is referred as an unsolved history. The treatments for this disorder are to remove the cystic substance from the nerve by a surgery. However these treatments may result in neuropathic pain and recurrence of the cyst. The articular theory proposed by Spinner et al., (Spinner et al. 2003) considers the neurological deficit in Common Peroneal Nerve (CPN) branch of the sciatic nerve and adds that in addition to the treatment, ligation of articular branch results into foolproof eradication of the deficit. Mechanical modeling of the affected nerve cross section will reinforce the articular theory (Spinner et al. 2003). As the cyst propagates, it compresses the neighboring fascicles and the nerve cross section appears like a signet ring. Hence, in order to mechanically model the affected nerve cross section; computational methods capable of modeling excessively large deformations are required. Traditional FEM produces distorted elements while modeling such deformations, resulting into inaccuracies and premature termination of the analysis. The methods described in research report have the capability to simulate large deformation. The results obtained from this research shows significant deformation as compared to the deformation observed in the conventional finite element models. The report elaborates the neurological deficit followed by detail explanation of the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic approach. Finally, the results show the large deformation in stages and also the successful implementation of the SPH method for the large deformation of the biological organ like the Intra-neural ganglion cyst.

Landscape Patterns of Permafrost Disturbance and Degradation in the Canadian High Arctic

Intensification of permafrost disturbances such as active layer detachments (ALDs) and retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) have been observed across the circumpolar Arctic. These features are indicators of unstable conditions stemming from recent climate warming and permafrost degradation. In order to understand the processes interacting to give rise to these features, a multidisciplinary approach is required; i.e., interactions between geomorphology, hydrology, vegetation and ground thermal conditions. The goal of this research is to detect and map permafrost disturbance, predict landscape controls over disturbance and determine approaches for monitoring disturbance, all with the goal of contributing to the mitigation of permafrost hazards. Permafrost disturbance inventories were created by applying semi-automatic change detection techniques to IKONOS satellite imagery collected at the Cape Bounty Arctic Watershed Observatory (CBAWO). These methods provide a means to estimate the spatial distribution of permafrost disturbances for a given area for use as an input in susceptibility modelling. Permafrost disturbance susceptibility models were then developed using generalized additive and generalized linear models (GAM, GLM) fitted to disturbed and undisturbed locations and relevant GIS-derived predictor variables (slope, potential solar radiation, elevation). These models successfully delineated areas across the landscape that were susceptible to disturbances locally and regionally when transferred to an independent validation location. Permafrost disturbance susceptibility models are a first-order assessment of landscape susceptibility and are promising for designing land management strategies for remote permafrost regions. Additionally, geomorphic patterns associated with higher susceptibility provide important knowledge about processes associated with the initiation of disturbances. Permafrost degradation was analyzed at the CBAWO using differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (DInSAR). Active-layer dynamics were interpreted using inter-seasonal and intra-seasonal displacement measurements and highlight the importance of hydroclimatic factors on active layer change. Collectively, these research approaches contribute to permafrost monitoring and the assessment of landscape-scale vulnerability in order to develop permafrost disturbance mitigation strategies.

Assessing model credibility of CT-Based finite element model to predict bone strength

Osteoporosis is one of the major causes of mortality among the elderly. Nowadays, areal bone mineral density (aBMD) is used as diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis; however, this is a moderate predictor of the femur fracture risk and does not capture the effect of some anatomical and physiological properties on the bone strength estimation. Data from past research suggest that most fragility femur fractures occur in patients with aBMD values outside the pathological range. Subject-specific finite element models derived from computed tomography data are considered better tools to non-invasively assess hip fracture risk. In particular, the Bologna Biomechanical Computed Tomography (BBCT) is an In Silico methodology that uses a subject specific FE model to predict bone strength. Different studies demonstrated that the modeling pipeline can increase predictive accuracy of osteoporosis detection and assess the efficacy of new antiresorptive drugs. However, one critical aspect that must be properly addressed before using the technology in the clinical practice, is the assessment of the model credibility. The aim of this study was to define and perform verification and uncertainty quantification analyses on the BBCT methodology following the risk-based credibility assessment framework recently proposed in the VV-40 standard. The analyses focused on the main verification tests used in computational solid mechanics: force and moment equilibrium check, mesh convergence analyses, mesh quality metrics study, evaluation of the uncertainties associated to the definition of the boundary conditions and material properties mapping. Results of these analyses showed that the FE model is correctly implemented and solved. The operation that mostly affect the model results is the material properties mapping step. This work represents an important step that, together with the ongoing clinical validation activities, will contribute to demonstrate the credibility of the BBCT methodology.

Practice of walking and its association with perceived environment among elderly Brazilians living in a region of low socioeconomic level

Background: The aim of this study was analyze associations between the practice of walking and environmental perception among elderly Brazilians in a region of low socioeconomic level. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 385 elderly people aged 60 years and over. To evaluate walking, the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), long version (leisure and transport modules) was used. The environment was evaluated by means of the Neighborhood Environmental Walkability Scale (NEWS) (adapted Brazilian version). For the statistical analysis, multiple logistic regression models were created separately for men and women. The practice of at least 150 minutes a week of walking was the dependent variable, and the variables of environmental perception were the independent variables. All the models were controlled for schooling level and age. Results: The proportion of elderly people active in walking was 56.9% for the men and 26.4% for the women. The perception of the presence of soccer fields (OR = 4.12) and their proximity, within ten minutes' walk from home (OR = 3.43), were associated with the practice of walking among the men. The perception of the presence of public squares (OR = 4.70) and the proximity of primary healthcare units, within ten minutes' walk from home (OR = 3.71), were associated with the practice of walking among the women. An association with adequate perception of vehicle traffic remained at the threshold of significance for the women. Conclusion: Accessibility of leisure structures such as football fields and public squares and of health services such as primary healthcare units were important environmental variables associated with the practice of walking among elderly people living in a region of low socioeconomic level in Brazil. These variables need to be taken into consideration when aiming to promote the practice of walking among elderly people living in similar regions.

Thermomechanical processing for recovery of desired < 001 > fiber texture in electric motor steels

A processing route has been developed for recovering the desired lambda fiber in iron-silicon electrical steel needed for superior magnetic properties in electric motor application. The lambda fiber texture is available in directionally solidified iron-silicon steel with the < 001 > columnar grains but was lost after heavy rolling and recrystallization required for motor laminations. Two steps of light rolling each followed by recrystallization were found to largely restore the desired fiber texture. This strengthening of the < 001 > fiber texture had been predicted on the basis of the strain-induced boundary migration (SIBM) mechanism during recrystallization of lightly rolled steel from existing grains of near the ideal orientation, due to postulated low stored energies. Taylor and finite element models supported the idea of the low stored energy of the lambda fiber grains. The models also showed that the lambda fiber grains, though unstable during rolling, only rotated away from their initial orientations quite slowly.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.