Anticipatory control of long-range phase synchronization

Everyday human behaviour relies on our ability to predict outcomes on the basis of moment by moment information. Long-range neural phase synchronization has been hypothesized as a mechanism by which ‘predictions’ can exert an effect on the processing of incoming sensory events. Using magnetoencephalography (MEG) we have studied the relationship between the modulation of phase synchronization in a cerebral network of areas involved in visual target processing and the predictability of target occurrence. Our results reveal a striking increase in the modulation of phase synchronization associated with an increased probability of target occurrence. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that long-range phase synchronization plays a critical functional role in humans' ability to effectively employ predictive heuristics.

Efficient Control in Multistage Stochastic Optimization Problem

AMS subject classification: 90C31, 90A09, 49K15, 49L20.

Advanced control of managed pressure drilling

Automation of managed pressure drilling (MPD) enhances the safety and increases efficiency of drilling and that drives the development of controllers and observers for MPD. The objective is to maintain the bottom hole pressure (BHP) within the pressure window formed by the reservoir pressure and fracture pressure and also to reject kicks. Practical MPD automation solutions must address the nonlinearities and uncertainties caused by the variations in mud flow rate, choke opening, friction factor, mud density, etc. It is also desired that if pressure constraints are violated the controller must take appropriate actions to reject the ensuing kick. The objectives are addressed by developing two controllers: a gain switching robust controller and a nonlinear model predictive controller (NMPC). The robust gain switching controller is designed using H1 loop shaping technique, which was implemented using high gain bumpless transfer and 2D look up table. Six candidate controllers were designed in such a way they preserve robustness and performance for different choke openings and flow rates. It is demonstrated that uniform performance is maintained under different operating conditions and the controllers are able to reject kicks using pressure control and maintain BHP during drill pipe extension. The NMPC was designed to regulate the BHP and contain the outlet flow rate within certain tunable threshold. The important feature of that controller is that it can reject kicks without requiring any switching and thus there is no scope for shattering due to switching between pressure and flow control. That is achieved by exploiting the constraint handling capability of NMPC. Active set method was used for computing control inputs. It is demonstrated that NMPC is able to contain kicks and maintain BHP during drill pipe extension.

Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States-Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci.

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted.

Inhibitory Control is a Rate-Limiting Factor to Preschoolers' Use of Irregular Inflection

We investigated whether children’s inhibitory control is associated with their ability to produce irregular verb forms as well as learn from corrective feedback following their use of an over-regularized form. Forty-eight 3.5 to 4.5 year old children were tested on the irregular past tense and provided with adult corrective input via models of correct use or recasts of errors following ungrammatical responses. Inhibitory control was assessed with a three-item battery of tasks that required suppressing a prepotent response in favor of a non-canonical one. Results showed that inhibitory control was predictive of children’s initial production of irregular forms and not associated with their post-feedback production of irregulars. These findings show that children’s executive functioning skills may be a rate-limiting factor on their ability to produce correct forms, but might not interact with their ability to learn from input in this domain. Findings are discussed in terms of current theories of past-tense acquisition and learning from input more broadly.

Searching for Predictive Subgroups

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Development and Application of Predictive Models for Survival, Growth, and Death of Enteric Pathogens in Leafy Greens Supply Chain

Leafy greens are essential part of a healthy diet. Because of their health benefits, production and consumption of leafy greens has increased considerably in the U.S. in the last few decades. However, leafy greens are also associated with a large number of foodborne disease outbreaks in the last few years. The overall goal of this dissertation was to use the current knowledge of predictive models and available data to understand the growth, survival, and death of enteric pathogens in leafy greens at pre- and post-harvest levels. Temperature plays a major role in the growth and death of bacteria in foods. A growth-death model was developed for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes in leafy greens for varying temperature conditions typically encountered during supply chain. The developed growth-death models were validated using experimental dynamic time-temperature profiles available in the literature. Furthermore, these growth-death models for Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes and a similar model for E. coli O157:H7 were used to predict the growth of these pathogens in leafy greens during transportation without temperature control. Refrigeration of leafy greens meets the purposes of increasing their shelf-life and mitigating the bacterial growth, but at the same time, storage of foods at lower temperature increases the storage cost. Nonlinear programming was used to optimize the storage temperature of leafy greens during supply chain while minimizing the storage cost and maintaining the desired levels of sensory quality and microbial safety. Most of the outbreaks associated with consumption of leafy greens contaminated with E. coli O157:H7 have occurred during July-November in the U.S. A dynamic system model consisting of subsystems and inputs (soil, irrigation, cattle, wildlife, and rainfall) simulating a farm in a major leafy greens producing area in California was developed. The model was simulated incorporating the events of planting, irrigation, harvesting, ground preparation for the new crop, contamination of soil and plants, and survival of E. coli O157:H7. The predictions of this system model are in agreement with the seasonality of outbreaks. This dissertation utilized the growth, survival, and death models of enteric pathogens in leafy greens during production and supply chain.

Predictive Models for Tomato Spotted Wilt Virus Spread Dynamics, Considering Frankliniella occidentalis Specific Life Processes as Influenced by the Virus

Several models have been studied on predictive epidemics of arthropod vectored plant viruses in an attempt to bring understanding to the complex but specific relationship between the three cornered pathosystem (virus, vector and host plant), as well as their interactions with the environment. A large body of studies mainly focuses on weather based models as management tool for monitoring pests and diseases, with very few incorporating the contribution of vector's life processes in the disease dynamics, which is an essential aspect when mitigating virus incidences in a crop stand. In this study, we hypothesized that the multiplication and spread of tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) in a crop stand is strongly related to its influences on Frankliniella occidentalis preferential behavior and life expectancy. Model dynamics of important aspects in disease development within TSWV-F. occidentalis-host plant interactions were developed, focusing on F. occidentalis' life processes as influenced by TSWV. The results show that the influence of TSWV on F. occidentalis preferential behaviour leads to an estimated increase in relative acquisition rate of the virus, and up to 33% increase in transmission rate to healthy plants. Also, increased life expectancy; which relates to improved fitness, is dependent on the virus induced preferential behaviour, consequently promoting multiplication and spread of the virus in a crop stand. The development of vector-based models could further help in elucidating the role of tri-trophic interactions in agricultural disease systems. Use of the model to examine the components of the disease process could also boost our understanding on how specific epidemiological characteristics interact to cause diseases in crops. With this level of understanding we can efficiently develop more precise control strategies for the virus and the vector.

Development of an innovative non rule-based energy management strategy for a Hybrid Electric Vehicle, structured for predictive driving controls based on external information knowledge

Recently, the interest of the automotive market for hybrid vehicles has increased due to the more restrictive pollutants emissions legislation and to the necessity of decreasing the fossil fuel consumption, since such solution allows a consistent improvement of the vehicle global efficiency. The term hybridization regards the energy flow in the powertrain of a vehicle: a standard vehicle has, usually, only one energy source and one energy tank; instead, a hybrid vehicle has at least two energy sources. In most cases, the prime mover is an internal combustion engine (ICE) while the auxiliary energy source can be mechanical, electrical, pneumatic or hydraulic. It is expected from the control unit of a hybrid vehicle the use of the ICE in high efficiency working zones and to shut it down when it is more convenient, while using the EMG at partial loads and as a fast torque response during transients. However, the battery state of charge may represent a limitation for such a strategy. That’s the reason why, in most cases, energy management strategies are based on the State Of Charge, or SOC, control. Several studies have been conducted on this topic and many different approaches have been illustrated. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop an online (usable on-board) control strategy in which the operating modes are defined using an instantaneous optimization method that minimizes the equivalent fuel consumption of a hybrid electric vehicle. The equivalent fuel consumption is calculated by taking into account the total energy used by the hybrid powertrain during the propulsion phases. The first section presents the hybrid vehicles characteristics. The second chapter describes the global model, with a particular focus on the energy management strategies usable for the supervisory control of such a powertrain. The third chapter shows the performance of the implemented controller on a NEDC cycle compared with the one obtained with the original control strategy.

Adherence to therapeuthic regimen and metabolic control of type 1 diabetes

Abstract Objectives: To assess the adherence to therapeutic regimen; to determine the Hemoglobin Glycation Index (HbA1c); to analyse the relationship that exists between the adherence to therapeutic regimen and metabolic control. Design: correlational analytical study, carried out according to a cross-sectional perspective. Participants: A non-probabilistic sample of 266 people with type 1 diabetes aged between 18 and 78 years old (mean M = 51.02 ± SD = 18.710), attending follow-up diabetes consultations. Mostly male individuals (51.88%), with low schooling level (50.75% had only inished elementar school). Measuring Instruments: We used the following data collection tools: a questionnaire on clinical and socio-demographic data, blood analysis of venous blood to determine the glycated hemoglobin level (HbA1c).Three self-report scales were used: Accession to Diabetes Treatment (Matos, 1999), Self-perception Scale (Vaz Serra, 1986) and Social Support Scale (Matos & Rodrigues, 2000). Results: In a sample in which the mean disease duration is 12.75 years, 69.17% of the sample run glycemic control tests between once a day and four times a year and 42.86% of them undergo insulin treatment. In the last 3 weeks, 26.32% of these people have experienced an average of 4.22 to 44.36%, hypoglycemic crises and experienced an average of 6.18 hyperglycemic crises. 57% of the individuals have showed a poor metabolic control (mean HbA1c higher than 7.5% (HbA1c mean M ≥ 7.50%). The mean psychosocial proile revealed individuals who show a decent self-esteem (M = 70.81) and acceptable social support (M = 58.89). Conclusions: The results suggest we should develop a kind of investigation that could be used to monitor the strenght of the mediation effect effect of the psychosocial predictive dimension of the adherence, since it has become essential to support a multidisciplinary approach which center lays in the promotion of a co-responsible self-management from the person who suffers from diabetes. This will enable a better quality of life; fewer years of people’s lives lost prematurely and a better health with less economical costs for citizens and healthcare systems.

ARIA 2016: Care pathways implementing emerging technologies for predictive medicine in rhinitis and asthma across the life cycle

The Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) initiative commenced during a World Health Organization workshop in 1999. The initial goals were (1) to propose a new allergic rhinitis classification, (2) to promote the concept of multi-morbidity in asthma and rhinitis and (3) to develop guidelines with all stakeholders that could be used globally for all countries and populations. ARIA—disseminated and implemented in over 70 countries globally—is now focusing on the implementation of emerging technologies for individualized and predictive medicine. MASK [MACVIA (Contre les Maladies Chroniques pour un Vieillissement Actif)-ARIA Sentinel NetworK] uses mobile technology to develop care pathways for the management of rhinitis and asthma by a multi-disciplinary group and by patients themselves. An app (Android and iOS) is available in 20 countries and 15 languages. It uses a visual analogue scale to assess symptom control and work productivity as well as a clinical decision support system. It is associated with an inter-operable tablet for physicians and other health care professionals. The scaling up strategy uses the recommendations of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. The aim of the novel ARIA approach is to provide an active and healthy life to rhinitis sufferers, whatever their age, sex or socio-economic status, in order to reduce health and social inequalities incurred by the disease.

Control and Supervision of Wind Energy Conversion Systems

This paper is about a PhD thesis and includes the study and analysis of the performance of an onshore wind energy conversion system. First, mathematical models of a variable speed wind turbine with pitch control are studied, followed by the study of different controller types such as integer-order controllers, fractional-order controllers, fuzzy logic controllers, adaptive controllers and predictive controllers and the study of a supervisor based on finite state machines is also studied. The controllers are included in the lower level of a hierarchical structure composed by two levels whose objective is to control the electric output power around the rated power. The supervisor included at the higher level is based on finite state machines whose objective is to analyze the operational states according to the wind speed. The studied mathematical models are integrated into computer simulations for the wind energy conversion system and the obtained numerical results allow for the performance assessment of the system connected to the electric grid. The wind energy conversion system is composed by a variable speed wind turbine, a mechanical transmission system described by a two mass drive train, a gearbox, a doubly fed induction generator rotor and by a two level converter.

Development of predictive energy management strategies for hybrid electric vehicles supported by connectivity

Nowadays, the spreading of the air pollution crisis enhanced by greenhouse gases emission is leading to the worsening of the global warming. In this context, the transportation sector plays a vital role, since it is responsible for a large part of carbon dioxide production. In order to address these issues, the present thesis deals with the development of advanced control strategies for the energy efficiency optimization of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), supported by the prediction of future working conditions of the powertrain. In particular, a Dynamic Programming algorithm has been developed for the combined optimization of vehicle energy and battery thermal management. At this aim, the battery temperature and the battery cooling circuit control signal have been considered as an additional state and control variables, respectively. Moreover, an adaptive equivalent consumption minimization strategy (A-ECMS) has been modified to handle zero-emission zones, where engine propulsion is not allowed. Navigation data represent an essential element in the achievement of these tasks. With this aim, a novel simulation and testing environment has been developed during the PhD research activity, as an effective tool to retrieve routing information from map service providers via vehicle-to-everything connectivity. Comparisons between the developed and the reference strategies are made, as well, in order to assess their impact on the vehicle energy consumption. All the activities presented in this doctoral dissertation have been carried out at the Green Mobility Research Lab} (GMRL), a research center resulting from the partnership between the University of Bologna and FEV Italia s.r.l., which represents the industrial partner of the research project.

Hypothalamic Inflammation And The Central Nervous System Control Of Energy Homeostasis.

The control of energy homeostasis relies on robust neuronal circuits that regulate food intake and energy expenditure. Although the physiology of these circuits is well understood, the molecular and cellular response of this program to chronic diseases is still largely unclear. Hypothalamic inflammation has emerged as a major driver of energy homeostasis dysfunction in both obesity and anorexia. Importantly, this inflammation disrupts the action of metabolic signals promoting anabolism or supporting catabolism. In this review, we address the evidence that favors hypothalamic inflammation as a factor that resets energy homeostasis in pathological states.

Chitosan/tripolyphosphate Nanoparticles Loaded With Paraquat Herbicide: An Environmentally Safer Alternative For Weed Control.

Paraquat is a fast acting nonselective contact herbicide that is extensively used worldwide. However, the aqueous solubility and soil sorption of this compound can cause problems of toxicity in nontarget organisms. This work investigates the preparation and characterization of nanoparticles composed of chitosan and sodium tripolyphosphate (TPP) to produce an efficient herbicidal formulation that was less toxic and could be used for safer control of weeds in agriculture. The toxicities of the formulations were evaluated using cell culture viability assays and the Allium cepa chromosome aberration test. The herbicidal activity was investigated in cultivations of maize (Zea mays) and mustard (Brassica sp.), and soil sorption of the nanoencapsulated herbicide was measured. The efficiency association of paraquat with the nanoparticles was 62.6 ± 0.7%. Encapsulation of the herbicide resulted in changes in its diffusion and release as well as its sorption by soil. Cytotoxicity and genotoxicity assays showed that the nanoencapsulated herbicide was less toxic than the pure compound, indicating its potential to control weeds while at the same time reducing environmental impacts. Measurements of herbicidal activity showed that the effectiveness of paraquat was preserved after encapsulation. It was concluded that the encapsulation of paraquat in nanoparticles can provide a useful means of reducing adverse impacts on human health and the environment, and that the formulation therefore has potential for use in agriculture.