921 resultados para Bayesian Statistics, Expert Elicitation, Coral Reefs, Species Richness


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Mode of access: Internet.

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Twelve Late Quaternary TIMS U-Th ages are reported here from 10 coral samples collected in situ from five transgressive coral/algal raised reefs (height: max. 113 m, min. 8 m) and two raised lagoonal deposits (height: max. 18 m, min. 8 m) along and near the west coast of Tanna, which lies in the Median Sedimentary Basin of South Vanuatu, southwest Pacific. These reefs and raised lagoonal deposits represent several age groups: (i) 215 ka (marine oxygen-isotope stage 7) penultimate interglacial (highest elevation and oldest); (ii) one lagoonal deposit of ca 127 ka (marine oxygen-isotope stage 5e); (iii) three last interglacial reefs with ages 102, 89 and 81 ka (representing marine oxygen-isotope stages 5c, 5b and 5a, respectively, of the latter part of the last interglacial); (iv) a lagoonal deposit with a 92 ka age (5b); and (v) a Holocene reef (age >5.7-5.0 ka) (lowest elevation and youngest). A ca 4.9 ka regressive reef (at elevation of 1.5 m above sea-level) is consistent with an island-wide 6.5 m uplift (probably largely coseismic), and a probable further island-wide uplift occurred in the late Holocene. The U-series ages taken together with the heights of transgressive reefs show that uplift since 215 ka was, on average, at similar to0.52 mm/y; although since 5 ka the uplift rate was, on average, similar to1.6 mm/y (the assumption being that a 1.5 m above sea-level reef has a coseismic origin). Elevation of transgressive reefs 5a, 5b and 5c and their ages indicates an island-wide subsidence during the period ?124-89 ka (i.e. Late Quaternary uplift/subsidence was jerky). Late Quaternary uplift/subsidence on the northwest coast of Tanna is considered to be due to irregular thicknesses of crust being subducted beneath Tanna.

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Assessments for assigning the conservation status of threatened species that are based purely on subjective judgements become problematic because assessments can be influenced by hidden assumptions, personal biases and perceptions of risks, making the assessment process difficult to repeat. This can result in inconsistent assessments and misclassifications, which can lead to a lack of confidence in species assessments. It is almost impossible to Understand an expert's logic or visualise the underlying reasoning behind the many hidden assumptions used throughout the assessment process. In this paper, we formalise the decision making process of experts, by capturing their logical ordering of information, their assumptions and reasoning, and transferring them into a set of decisions rules. We illustrate this through the process used to evaluate the conservation status of species under the NatureServe system (Master, 1991). NatureServe status assessments have been used for over two decades to set conservation priorities for threatened species throughout North America. We develop a conditional point-scoring method, to reflect the current subjective process. In two test comparisons, 77% of species' assessments using the explicit NatureServe method matched the qualitative assessments done subjectively by NatureServe staff. Of those that differed, no rank varied by more than one rank level under the two methods. In general, the explicit NatureServe method tended to be more precautionary than the subjective assessments. The rank differences that emerged from the comparisons may be due, at least in part, to the flexibility of the qualitative system, which allows different factors to be weighted on a species-by-species basis according to expert judgement. The method outlined in this study is the first documented attempt to explicitly define a transparent process for weighting and combining factors under the NatureServe system. The process of eliciting expert knowledge identifies how information is combined and highlights any inconsistent logic that may not be obvious in Subjective decisions. The method provides a repeatable, transparent, and explicit benchmark for feedback, further development, and improvement. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

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Waves breaking on the seaward rim of a coral reef generate a flow of water from the exposed side of the reef to the sheltered side and/or to either channels through the reef-rim or lower sections of the latter. This wave-generated flow is driven by the water surface gradient resulting from the wave set-up created by the breaking waves. This paper reviews previous approaches to modelling wave-generated flows across coral reefs and discusses the influence of reef morphology and roughness upon these flows. Laboratory measurements upon a two-dimensional horizontal reef platform with a steep reef face provide the basis for extending a previous theoretical analysis for wave set-up on a reef in the absence of a flow [Gourlay, M.R., 1996b. Wave set-up on coral reefs. 2. Set-up on reefs with various profiles. Coastal Engineering 28, 1755] to include the interaction between a unidirectional flow and the wave set-up. The laboratory model results are then used to demonstrate that there are two basic reef-top flow regimes-reef-top control and reef-rim control. Using open channel flow theory, analytical relationships are derived for the reef-top current velocity in terms of the offreef wave conditions, the reef-top water depth and the physical characteristics of the reef-top topography. The wave set-up and wave-generated flow relationships are found to predict experimental values with reasonable accuracy in most cases. The analytical relationships are used to investigate wave-generated flows into a boat harbour channel on Heron Reef in the southern Great Barrier Reef. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The thelastomatoid fauna of two species of wood-burrowing cockroach (Blattodea, Blaberidae), Panesthia cribrata and Panesthia tryoni tryoni, from Lamington National Park, Australia, is described. The following eight new species and three new genera of thelastomatid are proposed: Bilobostoma exerovulva n. g., n. sp.; Cordonicola gibsoni n. sp.; Coronostoma australiae n. sp.; Desmicola ornata n. sp.; Hammerschmidtiella hochi n. sp.; Malaspinanema goateri n. g., n. sp.; Travassosinema jaidenae n. sp.; and Tsuganema cribratum n. g., n. sp. Additional data are given for Blattophila sphaerolaima and Leidynemella fusiformis. Of the 11 species reported, nine were found in P. cribrata and ten in P. tryoni tryoni. Such levels of thelastomatoid species richnessness in single host species are exceptional. Only the mole cricket, Gryllotalpa africana (23), and the domestic cockroach, Periplaneta americana (20), have higher reported richness. Three species, T jaidenae, C. australiae and D. ornata, were found either exclusively or significantly more prevalently in P tryoni tryoni than in R cribrata. Species of Travassosinema, Coronostoma and Desmicola have been found previously only in millipedes (Diplopoda), a fact that suggests that there is a greater degree of niche overlap between R tryoni tryoni and millipedes than for R cribrata.

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Many diurnal planktivorous fish in coral reefs efficiently consume zooplankton drifting in the overlying water column. Our survey, carried out at two coral reefs in the Red Sea, showed that most of the diurnal planktivorous fish foraged near the bottom, close to the shelters from piscivores. The planktivorous fish were order of magnitude more abundant near (

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Understanding genetic variability and gene flow between populations of scleractinian corals separated by one to several hundred kilometers is crucially important as we head into a century of climate change in which an understanding of the connectivity of populations is a critically important question in management. Genetic methods that directly use molecular variance in the DNA should offer greater precision in detecting differences among individuals and populations than the more traditional allozyme electrophoresis. However, this paper highlights the point that the limited number of DNA markers that have been identified for scleractinian coral genetic studies do not necessarily offer greater precision than that offered by allozymes. In fact, at present allozyme electrophoresis yields greater information than the eight different DNA markers used in this study. Given the relative ease of use of allozymes and the wealth of comparable data sets from numerous previously published studies, allozyme electrophoresis should not be dismissed for population structure and connectivity studies on coral reefs. While continued effort should be placed into searching for new DNA markers, until a more sensitive DNA marker becomes available for scleractinian corals, allozyme electrophoresis remains a powerful and relevant technique for understanding the connectivity of coral population studies.

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The frequency and intensity of disturbance on living coral reefs have been accelerating for the past few decades, resulting in a changed seascape. What is unclear but vital for management is whether this acceleration is natural or coincident only with recent human impact. We surveyed nine uplifted early to mid-Holocene (11,000-3700 calendar [cal] yr B.P.) fringing and barrier reefs along similar to 27 km at the Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea. We found evidence for several episodes of coral mass mortality, but frequency was < 1 in 1500 yr. The most striking mortality event extends > 16 km along the ancient coastline, occurred ca. 9100-9400 cal yr B.P., and is associated with a volcanic ash horizon. Recolonization of the reef surface and resumption of vertical reef accretion was rapid (< 100 yr), but the post-disturbance reef communities contrasted with their pre-disturbance counterparts. Assessing the frequency, nature, and long-term ecological consequences of mass-mortality events in fossil coral reefs may provide important insights to guide management of modern reefs in this time of environmental degradation and change.

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An extended refraction-diffraction equation [Massel, S.R., 1993. Extended refraction-diffraction equation for surface waves. Coastal Eng. 19, 97-126] has been applied to predict wave transformation and breaking as well as wave-induced set-up on two-dimensional reef profiles of various shapes. A free empirical coefficient alpha in a formula for the average rate of energy dissipation [epsilon(b)] = (alpha rho g omega/8 pi)(root gh/C)(H-3/h) in the modified periodic bore model was found to be a function of the dimensionless parameter F-c0 = (g(1.25)H(0)(0.5)T(2.5))/h(r)(1.75), proposed by Gourlay [Gourlayl M.R., 1994. Wave transformation on a coral reef. Coastal Eng. 23, 17-42]. The applicability of the developed model has been demonstrated for reefs of various shapes subjected to various incident wave conditions. Assuming proposed relationships of the coefficient alpha and F-c0, the model provides results on wave height attenuation and set-up elevation which compare well with experimental data. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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Coral reefs, excellent climatic and environmental archives in tropical oceans, are widely distributed in the South China Sea (SCS), which is the largest enclosed marginal sea of western Pacific, covering over 20° in latitude and different climate conditions. Our recent research in the SCS focuses on coral-based high-resolution climate reconstruction and coral reef ecological responses using geochemical and U-series geochronological tools, which provide an ideal opportunity for understanding of Holocene climate processes and events. Some major research highlights are summarized below: