890 resultados para BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE-INTERVALS
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El trabajo realizado se divide en dos bloques bien diferenciados, ambos relacionados con el análisis de microarrays. El primer bloque consiste en agrupar las condiciones muestrales de todos los genes en grupos o clústers. Estas agrupaciones se obtienen al aplicar directamente sobre la microarray los siguientes algoritmos de agrupación: SOM,PAM,SOTA,HC y al aplicar sobre la microarray escalada con PC y MDS los siguientes algoritmos: SOM,PAM,SOTA,HC y K-MEANS. El segundo bloque consiste en realizar una búsqueda de genes basada en los intervalos de confianza de cada clúster de la agrupación activa. Las condiciones de búsqueda ajustadas por el usuario se validan para cada clúster respecto el valor basal 0 y respecto el resto de clústers, para estas validaciones se usan los intervalos de confianza. Estos dos bloques se integran en una aplicación web ya existente, el applet PCOPGene, alojada en el servidor: http://revolutionresearch.uab.es.
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BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic adversity in early life has been hypothesized to "program" a vulnerable phenotype with exaggerated inflammatory responses, so increasing the risk of developing type 2 diabetes in adulthood. The aim of this study is to test this hypothesis by assessing the extent to which the association between lifecourse socioeconomic status and type 2 diabetes incidence is explained by chronic inflammation. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use data from the British Whitehall II study, a prospective occupational cohort of adults established in 1985. The inflammatory markers C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 were measured repeatedly and type 2 diabetes incidence (new cases) was monitored over an 18-year follow-up (from 1991-1993 until 2007-2009). Our analytical sample consisted of 6,387 non-diabetic participants (1,818 women), of whom 731 (207 women) developed type 2 diabetes over the follow-up. Cumulative exposure to low socioeconomic status from childhood to middle age was associated with an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes in adulthood (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.96, 95% confidence interval: 1.48-2.58 for low cumulative lifecourse socioeconomic score and HR = 1.55, 95% confidence interval: 1.26-1.91 for low-low socioeconomic trajectory). 25% of the excess risk associated with cumulative socioeconomic adversity across the lifecourse and 32% of the excess risk associated with low-low socioeconomic trajectory was attributable to chronically elevated inflammation (95% confidence intervals 16%-58%). CONCLUSIONS: In the present study, chronic inflammation explained a substantial part of the association between lifecourse socioeconomic disadvantage and type 2 diabetes. Further studies should be performed to confirm these findings in population-based samples, as the Whitehall II cohort is not representative of the general population, and to examine the extent to which social inequalities attributable to chronic inflammation are reversible. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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The investigation of unexplained syncope remains a challenging clinical problem. In the present study we sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of a standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests in patients with unexplained syncope referred to a syncope clinic, and whether certain combinations of clinical parameters are characteristic of rhythmic and reflex causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: 317 consecutive patients underwent a standardized work-up including a 12-lead ECG, physical examination, detailed history with screening for syncope-related symptoms using a structured questionnaire followed by carotid sinus massage (CSM), and head-up tilt test. Invasive testings including an electrophysiological study and implantation of a loop recorder were only performed in those with structural heart disease or traumatic syncope. Our work-up identified an etiology in 81% of the patients. Importantly, three quarters of the causes were established non invasively combining head-up tilt test, CSM and hyperventilation testing. Invasive tests yielded an additional 7% of diagnoses. Logistic analysis identified age and number of significant prodromes as the only predictive factors of rhythmic syncope. The same two factors, in addition to the duration of the ECG P-wave, were also predictive of vasovagal and psychogenic syncope. These factors, optimally combined in predictive models, showed a high negative and a modest positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: A standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests allows to establish more than three quarters of syncope causes. Predictive models based on simple clinical parameters may help to distinguish between rhythmic and other causes of syncope
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The diagnosis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), comprising Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), continues to present difficulties due to unspecific symptoms and limited test accuracies. We aimed to determine the diagnostic delay (time from first symptoms to IBD diagnosis) and to identify associated risk factors. A total of 1591 IBD patients (932 CD, 625 UC, 34 indeterminate colitis) from the Swiss IBD cohort study (SIBDCS) were evaluated. The SIBDCS collects data on a large sample of IBD patients from hospitals and private practice across Switzerland through physician and patient questionnaires. The primary outcome measure was diagnostic delay. Diagnostic delay in CD patients was significantly longer compared to UC patients (median 9 versus 4 months, P < 0.001). Seventy-five percent of CD patients were diagnosed within 24 months compared to 12 months for UC and 6 months for IC patients. Multivariate logistic regression identified age <40 years at diagnosis (odds ratio [OR] 2.15, P = 0.010) and ileal disease (OR 1.69, P = 0.025) as independent risk factors for long diagnostic delay in CD (>24 months). In UC patients, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID intake (OR 1.75, P = 0.093) and male gender (OR 0.59, P = 0.079) were associated with long diagnostic delay (>12 months). Whereas the median delay for diagnosing CD, UC, and IC seems to be acceptable, there exists a long delay in a considerable proportion of CD patients. More public awareness work needs to be done in order to reduce patient and doctor delays in this target population.
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Hip fractures place a major and increasing burden on health services in Western countries. Reported incidence rates vary considerably from one geographic area to another. No published data are available for Switzerland or surrounding countries, but such descriptive indicators are indispensable in orienting national or regional policies. To fill this gap and to assess the similarity of hip fracture incidence in Switzerland and other countries, we collected data from several sources in 26 public and private hospitals, in the Canton of Vaud (total population: 538,000) for 1986, which allowed us to calculate the incidence (for people over twenty years old) and assess related parameters. 577 hip fractures were identified among the resident population, indicating a crude average annual incidence rate of 140 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval: 128, 152). Corresponding rates for males and females were 58 (47, 68) and 213 (193, 232). Standardized rates and international comparisons show that Swiss rates are slightly lower than those of most industrial countries. More detailed results of relative risks for various study variables are presented and the pathogenesis of hip fractures is discussed.
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BACKGROUND: Cerebral cholinergic transmission plays a key role in cognitive function, and anticholinergic drugs administered during the perioperative phase are a hypothetical cause of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD). We hypothesized that a perioperative increase in serum anticholinergic activity (SAA) is associated with POCD in elderly patients. METHODS: Seventy-nine patients aged >65 years undergoing elective major surgery under standardized general anesthesia (thiopental, sevoflurane, fentanyl, and atracurium) were investigated. Cognitive functions were assessed preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively using the extended version of the CERAD-Neuropsychological Assessment Battery. POCD was defined as a postoperative decline >1 z-score in at least 2 test variables. SAA was measured preoperatively and 7 days postoperatively at the time of cognitive testing. Hodges-Lehmann median differences and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated for between-group comparisons. RESULTS: Of the patients who completed the study, 46% developed POCD. Patients with POCD were slightly older and less educated than patients without POCD. There were no relevant differences between patients with and without POCD regarding gender, demographically corrected baseline cognitive functions, and duration of anesthesia. There were no large differences between patients with and without POCD regarding SAA preoperatively (pmol/mL, median [interquartile range]/median difference [95% CI], P; 1.14 [0.72, 2.37] vs 1.13 [0.68, 1.68]/0.12 [-0.31, 0.57], P = 0.56), SAA 7 days postoperatively (1.32 [0.68, 2.59] vs 0.97 [0.65, 1.83]/0.25 [-0.26, 0.81], P = 0.37), or changes in SAA (0.08 [-0.50, 0.70] vs -0.02 [-0.53, 0.41]/0.1 [-0.31, 0.52], P = 0.62). There was no significant relationship between changes in SAA and changes in cognitive function (Spearman rank correlation coefficient preoperatively of 0.03 [95% CI, -0.21, 0.26] and postoperatively of -0.002 [95% CI, -0.24, 0.23]). CONCLUSIONS: In this panel of patients with low baseline SAA and clinically insignificant perioperative anticholinergic burden, although a relationship cannot be excluded in some patients, our analysis suggests that POCD is probably not a substantial consequence of anticholinergic medications administered perioperatively but rather due to other mechanisms.
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BACKGROUND: Angiogenesis inhibitors have been developed to block tumour angiogenesis and target vascular endothelial cells. While some of them have already been approved by the health authorities and are successfully integrated into patient care, many others are still under development, and the clinical value of this approach has to be established. OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy and toxicity of targeted anti-angiogenic therapies, in addition to chemotherapy, in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer. Primary endpoints are both progression-free and overall survival. Response rates, toxicity and secondary resectability were secondary endpoints. Comparisons were first-line chemotherapy in combination with angiogenesis inhibitor, to the same chemotherapy without angiogenesis inhibitor; and second-line chemotherapy, to the same chemotherapy without angiogenesis inhibitor. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, as well as proceedings from ECCO, ESMO and ASCO until November 2008. In addition, reference lists from trials were scanned, experts in the field and drug manufacturers were contacted to obtain further information. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomized controlled trials on targeted anti-angiogenic drugs in metastatic colorectal cancer (MCRC). DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data collection and analysis was performed, according to a previously published protocol. Because individual patient data was not provided, aggregate data had to be used for the analysis. Summary statistics for the primary endpoints were hazard ratios (HR's) and their 95% confidence intervals. MAIN RESULTS: At present, eligible first line trials for this meta-analysis were available for bevacizumab (5 trials including 3101 patients) and vatalanib (1 trial which included 1168 patients). The overall HR s for PFS (0.61, 95% CI 0.45 - 0.83) and OS (0.81, 95% 0.73 - 0.90) for the comparison of first-line chemotherapy, with or without bevacizumab, confirms significant benefits in favour of the patients treated with bevacizumab. However, the effect on PFS shows significant heterogeneity. For second-line chemotherapy, with or without bevacizumab, a benefit in both PFS (HR 0.61, 95% CI 0.51 - 0.73) and OS (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.63-0.89) was demonstrated in a single, randomized trial. While differences in treatment-related deaths and 60-day mortality were not significant, higher incidences in grade III/IV hypertension, arterial thrombembolic events and gastrointestinal perforations were observed in the patients treated with bevacizumab. For valatanib, currently available data showed a non-significant benefit in PFS and OS. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy of metastatic colorectal cancer prolongs both PFS and OS in first-and second-line therapy.
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To evaluate sex differences in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression before (pre-1997) and after (1997-2006) introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy, the authors used data from a collaboration of 23 HIV seroconverter cohort studies from Europe, Australia, and Canada restricted to the 6,923 seroconverters infected through injecting drug use and sex between men and women. Within a competing risk framework, they used Cox proportional hazards models allowing for late entry to evaluate sex differences in time from HIV seroconversion to death, to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and to each first AIDS-defining disease and death without AIDS. While no significant sex differences were found before 1997, from 1997 onward, women had a lower risk of AIDS (adjusted cumulative relative risk (aCRR) = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.63, 0.90) and death (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.82) than men did. Compared with men, women also had lower risks of AIDS dementia complex (aCRR = 0.23, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.74), tuberculosis (aCRR = 0.60, 95% CI: 0.39, 0.92), Kaposi's sarcoma (aCRR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.99), lymphomas (aCRR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.96), and death without AIDS (aCRR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.98). Sex differences in HIV disease progression have become larger and statistically significant in the era of highly active antiretroviral therapy, supporting a stronger impact of health interventions among women.
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OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether first trimester exposure to lamotrigine (LTG) monotherapy is specifically associated with an increased risk of orofacial clefts (OCs) relative to other malformations, in response to a signal regarding increased OC risk. METHODS: Population-based case-control study with malformed controls based on EUROCAT congenital anomaly registers. The study population covered 3.9 million births from 19 registries 1995-2005. Registrations included congenital anomaly among livebirths, stillbirths, and terminations of pregnancy following prenatal diagnosis. Cases were 5,511 nonsyndromic OC registrations, of whom 4,571 were isolated, 1,969 were cleft palate (CP), and 1,532 were isolated CP. Controls were 80,052 nonchromosomal, non-OC registrations. We compared first trimester LTG and antiepileptic drug (AED) use vs nonepileptic non-AED use, for mono and polytherapy, adjusting for maternal age. An additional exploratory analysis compared the observed and expected distribution of malformation types associated with LTG use. RESULTS: There were 72 LTG exposed (40 mono- and 32 polytherapy) registrations. The ORs for LTG monotherapy vs no AED use were 0.67 (95% CI 0.10-2.34) for OC relative to other malformations, 0.80 (95% CI 0.11-2.85) for isolated OC, 0.79 (95% CI 0.03-4.35) for CP, and 1.01 (95% CI 0.03-5.57) for isolated CP. ORs for any AED use vs no AED use were 1.43 (95% CI 1.03-1.93) for OC, 1.21 (95% CI 0.82-1.72) for isolated OC, 2.37 (95% CI 1.54-3.43) for CP, and 1.86 (95% CI 1.07-2.94) for isolated CP. The distribution of other nonchromosomal malformation types with LTG exposure was similar to non-AED exposed. CONCLUSION: We find no evidence of a specific increased risk of isolated orofacial clefts relative to other malformations due to lamotrigine (LTG) monotherapy. Our study is not designed to assess whether there is a generalized increased risk of malformations with LTG exposure.
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While dementia affects 6-10% of persons 65 years or older, industrialized countries have witnessed an alarming rise in obesity. However, obesity's influence on dementia remains poorly understood. The conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. PUBMED search (1995-2007) resulted in 10 relevant prospective cohort studies of older adults (40-80 years at baseline) with end points being dementia and predictors including adiposity measures, such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC). There was a significant U-shaped association between BMI and dementia (P= 0.034), with dementia risk increased for obesity and underweight. Pooled odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for underweight, overweight and obesity compared with normal weight in relation to incident dementia were: 1.36 (1.07, 1.73), 0.88 (0.60, 1.27) and 1.42 (0.93, 2.18) respectively. Pooled ORs and 95% CI for obesity and incident Alzheimer's disease (AD) and vascular dementia were 1.80 (1.00, 3.29) vs. 1.73 (0.47, 6.31) and were stronger in studies with long follow-up (>10 years) and young baseline age (
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La fréquence et la complexité des problèmes médicaux qui concernent la conduite automobile augmentent progressivement. Dans la plupart des cantons suisses, tout médecin peut être amené à se prononcer sur l'aptitude à conduire en tant que médecin-conseil au sujet d'un de ses patients. Ces dernières années, plusieurs nouvelles recommandations de différentes sociétés médicales ont été publiées en Suisse. Il nous a paru utile de faire une synthèse de ce qui paraît essentiel de savoir avant de rédiger un certificat d'aptitude à la conduite. Medical problems related to car driving are more and more complex and frequent. In the most areas of Switzerland each doctor can be asked to assess the fitness to drive of his patients. Several guidelines from medical societies have been published recently in Switzerland. Therefore it appears to be useful to synthesize the essential knowledge to have before signing fitness-to-drive certificates
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These synthetic estimates were produced as part of a research project to test and produce area-level estimates of healthy lifestyle behaviours, which was carried out at the National Centre for Social Research. The estimates were produced in response to the twin requirements to develop small area estimates for Neighbourhood Statistics and to meet local public health information needs. Synthetic estimates with 95% Confidence Intervals (1) have been prepared using 2000-2002 data from the Health Survey for England, the 2001 Census and other information, at the 2003 Census Area Statistics (CAS) ward and Primary Care Organisation (PCO)(2) geographic level for the following variables: Prevalence of current smoking (at the time the data was collected); Obesity of adults; Binge drinking for adults; Consumption of 5 or more portions of fruit and vegetables a day (adults); Consumption of 3 or more portions of fruit and vegetables day (children).
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Boundaries for delta, representing a "quantitatively significant" or "substantively impressive" distinction, have not been established, analogous to the boundary of alpha, usually set at 0.05, for the stochastic or probabilistic component of "statistical significance". To determine what boundaries are being used for the "quantitative" decisions, we reviewed pertinent articles in three general medical journals. For each contrast of two means, contrast of two rates, or correlation coefficient, we noted the investigators' decisions about stochastic significance, stated in P values or confidence intervals, and about quantitative significance, indicated by interpretive comments. The boundaries between impressive and unimpressive distinctions were best formed by a ratio of greater than or equal to 1.2 for the smaller to the larger mean in 546 comparisons, by a standardized increment of greater than or equal to 0.28 and odds ratio of greater than or equal to 2.2 in 392 comparisons of two rates; and by an r value of greater than or equal to 0.32 in 154 correlation coefficients. Additional boundaries were also identified for "substantially" and "highly" significant quantitative distinctions. Although the proposed boundaries should be kept flexible, indexes and boundaries for decisions about "quantitative significance" are particularly useful when a value of delta must be chosen for calculating sample size before the research is done, and when the "statistical significance" of completed research is appraised for its quantitative as well as stochastic components.
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PURPOSE: In Switzerland, nationwide large-scale radon surveys have been conducted since the early 1980s to establish the distribution of indoor radon concentrations (IRC). The aim of this work was to study the factors influencing IRC in Switzerland using univariate analyses that take into account biases caused by spatial irregularities of sampling. METHODS: About 212,000 IRC measurements carried out in more than 136,000 dwellings were available for this study. A probability map to assess risk of exceeding an IRC of 300 Bq/m(3) was produced using basic geostatistical techniques. Univariate analyses of IRC for different variables, namely the type of radon detector, various building characteristics such as foundation type, year of construction and building type, as well as the altitude, the average outdoor temperature during measurement and the lithology, were performed comparing 95% confidence intervals among classes of each variable. Furthermore, a map showing the spatial aggregation of the number of measurements was generated for each class of variable in order to assess biases due to spatially irregular sampling. RESULTS: IRC measurements carried out with electret detectors were 35% higher than measurements performed with track detectors. Regarding building characteristics, the IRC of apartments are significantly lower than individual houses. Furthermore, buildings with concrete foundations have the lowest IRC. A significant decrease in IRC was found in buildings constructed after 1900 and again after 1970. Moreover, IRC decreases at higher outdoor temperatures. There is also a tendency to have higher IRC with altitude. Regarding lithology, carbonate rock in the Jura Mountains produces significantly higher IRC, almost by a factor of 2, than carbonate rock in the Alps. Sedimentary rock and sediment produce the lowest IRC while carbonate rock from the Jura Mountains and igneous rock produce the highest IRC. Potential biases due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements were identified for several influencing factors. CONCLUSIONS: Significant associations were found between IRC and all variables under study. However, we showed that the spatial distribution of samples strongly affected the relevance of those associations. Therefore, future methods to estimate local radon hazards should take the multidimensionality of the process of IRC into account.
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To create an instrument to be used in an outpatient clinic to detect adolescents prone to risk-taking behaviours. Based on previous research, five identified variables (relationship with parents and teachers, liking going to school, average grades, and level of religiosity) were used to create a screening tool to detect at least one of ten risky behaviours (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and other illegal drugs use; sexual intercourse and sexual risky behaviour; driving while intoxicated, riding with an intoxicated driver, not always using a seat belt, and not always using a helmet). The instrument was tested using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1993. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to find the best cut-off point between high and low risk score. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to detect at least one risky behaviour and for each individual behaviour. In order to assess its predictive value, the analysis was repeated using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1999. In both cases, analyses were conducted for the whole sample and for younger and older adolescents. Adolescents with a high-risk score were more likely to take at least one risky behaviour both when the whole sample was analysed and by age groups. With very few exceptions, the Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents showed significant odds ratios for each individual variable. CONCLUSION: The Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents has shown its potential as an easy to use instrument to screen for risk-taking behaviours. Future research must aim towards assessing this instrument's predictive value in the clinical setting and it's application to other populations.