942 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs
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We present a new deterministic dynamical model on the market size of Cournot competitions, based on Nash equilibria of R&D investment strategies to increase the size of the market of the firms at every period of the game. We compute the unique Nash equilibrium for the second subgame and the profit functions for both firms. Adding uncertainty to the R&D investment strategies, we get a new stochastic dynamical model and we analyse the importance of the uncertainty to reverse the initial advantage of one firm with respect to the other.
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In order to better understand the biology of Centrocestus formosanus in a definitive host model, mice of Swiss and AKR/J strains were experimentally infected with 100 metacercariae of the parasite. Fourteen days post-infection, the rodents were killed and adult trematodes were recovered from the small intestine. The percentage of parasite recovery from AKR/J mice (11.4%) was significantly higher than that from Swiss mice (5.3%). Moreover, trematodes recovered from the AKR/J strain were more developed and had greater fecundity. Peculiarities concerning the mices immune system could explain the difference in susceptibility and in worm development seen in the present study. The data obtained confirm that mice are susceptible to infection with C. formosanus and indicate that the AKR/J strain provides a more favorable environment for parasite development.
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A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics
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The convergence features of an Endogenous Growth model with Physical capital, Human Capital and R&D have been studied. We add an erosion effect (supported by empirical evidence) to this model, and fully characterize its convergence properties. The dynamics is described by a fourth-order system of differential equations. We show that the model converges along a one-dimensional stable manifold and that its equilibrium is saddle-path stable. We also argue that one of the implications of considering this “erosion effect” is the increase in the adherence of the model to data.
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INTRODUCTION: In the jurisdiction of Brasília, Brazil, significant reductions in mortality rates and lethality resulting from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) were observed shortly after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy. In recent years, however, the decline of these rates has not been as significant. Non-adherence to treatment and delayed diagnosis appear to be the main factors that increase the risk of death from AIDS. Behavioral, socioeconomic, and biological factors could also be associated with increased risk of death due to AIDS. This study aimed to identify which of these factors were associated with deaths from AIDS in Brasília. METHODS: A case-control study was undertaken using the data recorded in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases. Cases consisted of AIDS deaths occurring in 2007, residing in Brasília, and over 12 years of age. Controls consisted of AIDS patients who did not die until December 31 2007, also residing in Brasília, and over 12 years of age. For each group, frequency and proportion tables for the variables were prepared. The statistical association of each factor in isolation with the occurrence of the deaths was verified through a model of multivariate analysis using logistic regression. RESULTS: The factors that were associated with an increased risk of death were intravenous drug use, age 50 years or more, and residing in a region whose residents have low per capita income. CONCLUSIONS: We identified factors associated with death due to AIDS that can guide health planning.
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Introduction Hematophagous Desmodus rotundus bats play an important role in the rabies lifecycle. This study describes the hematological profile of these bats before and after experimental infection with rabies virus. Methods Cells counts were performed in a Neubauer chamber. Results The average values of erythrocytes and leucocytes counts in blood before experimental infections were 9.97 × 106mm3 and 4.80 × 103mm3, respectively. Neutrophils represented 69.9% of white blood cells and the lymphocytes represented 26.9%. Following the experimental infections, the average numbers of erythrocytes and leucocytes was 9.43 × 106mm3 and 3.98 × 103mm3, respectively. Neutrophils represented 40% of white blood cells and the lymphocytes represented 59%. Conclusions The hematological profile given in this study can serve as reference values for D. rotundus bats.
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The results of a search for supersymmetry in final states containing at least one isolated lepton (electron or muon), jets and large missing transverse momentum with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are reported. The search is based on proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy s√=8 TeV collected in 2012, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20 fb−1. No significant excess above the Standard Model expectation is observed. Limits are set on the parameters of a minimal universal extra dimensions model, excluding a compactification radius of 1/Rc=950 GeV for a cut-off scale times radius (ΛRc) of approximately 30, as well as on sparticle masses for various supersymmetric models. Depending on the model, the search excludes gluino masses up to 1.32 TeV and squark masses up to 840 GeV.
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The paper presents studies of Bose--Einstein Correlations (BEC) for pairs of like-sign charged particles measured in the kinematic range pT> 100 MeV and |η|< 2.5 in proton--proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of 0.9 and 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The integrated luminosities are approximately 7 μb−1, 190 μb−1 and 12.4 nb−1 for 0.9 TeV, 7 TeV minimum-bias and 7 TeV high-multiplicity data samples, respectively. The multiplicity dependence of the BEC parameters characterizing the correlation strength and the correlation source size are investigated for charged-particle multiplicities of up to 240. A saturation effect in the multiplicity dependence of the correlation source size is observed using the high-multiplicity 7 TeV data sample. The dependence of the BEC parameters on the average transverse momentum of the particle pair is also investigated.
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This paper proposes and validates a model-driven software engineering technique for spreadsheets. The technique that we envision builds on the embedding of spreadsheet models under a widely used spreadsheet system. This means that we enable the creation and evolution of spreadsheet models under a spreadsheet system. More precisely, we embed ClassSheets, a visual language with a syntax similar to the one offered by common spreadsheets, that was created with the aim of specifying spreadsheets. Our embedding allows models and their conforming instances to be developed under the same environment. In practice, this convenient environment enhances evolution steps at the model level while the corresponding instance is automatically co-evolved.Finally,wehave designed and conducted an empirical study with human users in order to assess our technique in production environments. The results of this study are promising and suggest that productivity gains are realizable under our model-driven spreadsheet development setting.
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Curcumin and caffeine (used as lipophilic and hydrophilic model compounds, respectively) were successfully encapsulated in lactoferrin-glycomacropeptide (Lf-GMP) nanohydrogels by thermal gelation showing high encapsulation efficiencies (>90 %). FTIR spectroscopy confirmed the encapsulation of bioactive compounds in Lf-GMP nanohydrogels and revealed that according to the encapsulated compound different interactions occur with the nanohydrogel matrix. The successful encapsulation of bioactive compounds in Lf-GMP nanohydrogels was also confirmed by fluorescence measurements and confocal laser scanning microscopy. TEM images showed that loaded nanohydrogels maintain their spherical shape with sizes of 112 and 126 nm for curcumin and caffeine encapsulated in Lf-GMP nanohydrogels, respectively; in both cases a polydispersity of 0.2 was obtained. The release mechanisms of bioactive compounds through Lf-GMP nanohydrogels were evaluated at pH 2 and pH 7, by fitting the Linear Superimposition Model to the experimental data. The bioactive compounds release was found to be pH-dependent: at pH 2, relaxation is the governing phenomenon for curcumin and caffeine compounds and at pH 7 Ficks diffusion is the main mechanism of caffeine release while curcumin was not released through Lf-GMP nanohydrogels.
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Background:Several studies have been attempting to ascertain the risks of Sleep Apnea Syndrome (SAS) and its morbidity and mortality.Objective:The main objective was to verify whether SAS increases the risk of death; the secondary objective was to evaluate its morbidity in relation to cardiovascular disease and the number of days hospitalized.Methods:A systematic review and a meta-analysis were performed of the published literature. The research focused on studies comparing the number of deaths in patients with untreated SAS and in patients with non-SAS.Results:The meta-analysis was based on 13 articles, corresponding to a total of 13394 participants divided into two groups (non-SAS = 6631; SAS = 6763). The meta-analysis revealed a clear association of SAS with the occurrence of fatal events, where the presence of SAS corresponded to a 61% higher risk of total mortality (OR=1.61; CI: 1.43 - 1.81; p < 0.00001), while the risk of death from cardiac causes was 2.52 times higher in these patients (OR = 2.52; IC: 1.80 - 3.52; p < 0.00001). Similar results were obtained for mortality from other causes (OR = 1.68; CI: 1.08 - 2.61; p = 0.02). Resembling results were obtained in the remaining outcomes: non-fatal cardiovascular events were higher in the SAS group (OR = 2.46; IC: 1.80 - 3.36; p < 0.00001), the average number of days hospitalized was also higher in the SAS group (IV = 18.09; IC: 13.34 - 22.84; p < 0.00001).Conclusion:The results show that untreated SAS significantly increases the risk of death, cardiovascular events and the average number of days hospitalized.
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Background:Previous reports have inferred a linear relationship between LDL-C and changes in coronary plaque volume (CPV) measured by intravascular ultrasound. However, these publications included a small number of studies and did not explore other lipid markers.Objective:To assess the association between changes in lipid markers and regression of CPV using published data.Methods:We collected data from the control, placebo and intervention arms in studies that compared the effect of lipidlowering treatments on CPV, and from the placebo and control arms in studies that tested drugs that did not affect lipids. Baseline and final measurements of plaque volume, expressed in mm3, were extracted and the percentage changes after the interventions were calculated. Performing three linear regression analyses, we assessed the relationship between percentage and absolute changes in lipid markers and percentage variations in CPV.Results:Twenty-seven studies were selected. Correlations between percentage changes in LDL-C, non-HDL-C, and apolipoprotein B (ApoB) and percentage changes in CPV were moderate (r = 0.48, r = 0.47, and r = 0.44, respectively). Correlations between absolute differences in LDL-C, non‑HDL-C, and ApoB with percentage differences in CPV were stronger (r = 0.57, r = 0.52, and r = 0.79). The linear regression model showed a statistically significant association between a reduction in lipid markers and regression of plaque volume.Conclusion:A significant association between changes in different atherogenic particles and regression of CPV was observed. The absolute reduction in ApoB showed the strongest correlation with coronary plaque regression.
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Megazol, nifurtimox, benznidazol and allopurinol were investigated, by light and electron µscopy, for their action on T. cruzi. Both the direct effect upon amastigote and trypomastigote forms and the effect upon the interaction of heart muscle cells (HMC) with bloodstream trypomastigotes were studied. The proliferation of amastigotes in Warren medium was inhibited in a dose-dependent manner by megazol, nifurtimox and benznidazol. Treatment of amastigotes (25-50 µM/24 h) and trypomastigotes (25 µM/24h) led to several ultrastructural alterations in the parasites. These three drugs also had a potent effect on the treatment of infected heart muscle cells when added at the beginning of the interaction or after one or three days of infection. The interiorized parasites showed a similar pattern of ultrastructural alterations as observed by the direct effect on the amastigotes. The primary heart muscle cell culture proved to be a suitable model for the study of drugs on intracellular parasites. Likewise, the amastigote proliferation in axenic medium was shown to be an adequate assay for an initial trial of drugs. These parameters seem very reliable to us for a systematic investigation of the mechanism of action of new drugs.
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In this paper, we attempt to give a theoretical underpinning to the well established empirical stylized fact that asset returns in general and the spot FOREX returns in particular display predictable volatility characteristics. Adopting Moore and Roche s habit persistence version of Lucas model we nd that both the innovation in the spot FOREX return and the FOREX return itself follow "ARCH" style processes. Using the impulse response functions (IRFs) we show that the baseline simulated FOREX series has "ARCH" properties in the quarterly frequency that match well the "ARCH" properties of the empirical monthly estimations in that when we scale the x-axis to synchronize the monthly and quarterly responses we find similar impulse responses to one unit shock in variance. The IRFs for the ARCH processes we estimate "look the same" with an approximately monotonic decreasing fashion. The Lucas two-country monetary model with habit can generate realistic conditional volatility in spot FOREX return.
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While consumption habits have been utilised as a means of generating a humpshaped output response to monetary policy shocks in sticky-price New Keynesian economies, there is relatively little analysis of the impact of habits (particularly,external habits) on optimal policy. In this paper we consider the implications of external habits for optimal monetary policy, when those habits either exist at the level of the aggregate basket of consumption goods (‘superficial’ habits) or at the level of individual goods (‘deep’ habits: see Ravn, Schmitt-Grohe, and Uribe (2006)). External habits generate an additional distortion in the economy, which implies that the flex-price equilibrium will no longer be efficient and that policy faces interesting new trade-offs and potential stabilisation biases. Furthermore, the endogenous mark-up behaviour, which emerges when habits are deep, can also significantly affect the optimal policy response to shocks, as well as dramatically affecting the stabilising properties of standard simple rules.