The Round goby, Neogobius melanostomus (Pallas) : a review of European and North American literature /

"Sea Grant Publication No. IL-IN-SG-97-7"--P. 2 of cover.

Amplified inception of European Little Ice Age by sea ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks

The inception of the Little Ice Age (~1400–1700 AD) is believed to have been driven by an interplay of external forcing and climate system internal variability. While the hemispheric signal seems to have been dominated by solar irradiance and volcanic eruptions, the understanding of mechanisms shaping the climate on a continental scale is less robust. In an ensemble of transient model simulations and a new type of sensitivity experiments with artificial sea ice growth, the authors identify a sea ice–ocean–atmosphere feedback mechanism that amplifies the Little Ice Age cooling in the North Atlantic–European region and produces the temperature pattern suggested by paleoclimatic reconstructions. Initiated by increasing negative forcing, the Arctic sea ice substantially expands at the beginning of the Little Ice Age. The excess of sea ice is exported to the subpolar North Atlantic, where it melts, thereby weakening convection of the ocean. Consequently, northward ocean heat transport is reduced, reinforcing the expansion of the sea ice and the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Nordic Seas, sea surface height anomalies cause the oceanic recirculation to strengthen at the expense of the warm Barents Sea inflow, thereby further reinforcing sea ice growth. The absent ocean–atmosphere heat flux in the Barents Sea results in an amplified cooling over Northern Europe. The positive nature of this feedback mechanism enables sea ice to remain in an expanded state for decades up to a century, favoring sustained cold periods over Europe such as the Little Ice Age. Support for the feedback mechanism comes from recent proxy reconstructions around the Nordic Seas.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Compilation of downward flux observations from sediment trap deployments in the Atlantic Ocean - Contribution to EURO-BASIN's Data integration

We provide a compilation of downward fluxes (total mass, POC, PON, BSiO2, CaCO3, PIC and lithogenic/terrigenous fluxes) from over 6000 sediment trap measurements distributed in the Atlantic Ocean, from 30 degree North to 49 degree South, and covering the period 1982-2011. Data from the Mediterranean Sea are also included. Data were compiled from different sources: data repositories (BCO-DMO, PANGAEA), time series sites (BATS, CARIACO), published scientific papers and/or personal communications from PI's. All sources are specifed in the data set. Data from the World Ocean Atlas 2009 were extracted to provide each flux observation with contextual environmental data, such as temperature, salinity, oxygen (concentration, AOU and percentage saturation), nitrate, phosphate and silicate.

The EMSO-ERIC Pan-European Consortium: Data Benefits and Lessons Learned as the Legal Entity Forms

The European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water-column Observatory (EMSO) European Research Infrastructure Consortium (ERIC) provides power, communications, sensors, and data infrastructure for continuous, high-resolution, (near-)real-time, interactive ocean observations across a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary range of research areas including biology, geology, chemistry, physics, engineering, and computer science, from polar to subtropical environments, through the water column down to the abyss. Eleven deep-sea and four shallow nodes span from the Arctic through the Atlantic and Mediterranean, to the Black Sea. Coordination among the consortium nodes is being strengthened through the EMSOdev project (H2020), which will produce the EMSO Generic Instrument Module (EGIM). Early installations are now being upgraded, for example, at the Ligurian, Ionian, Azores, and Porcupine Abyssal Plain (PAP) nodes. Significant findings have been flowing in over the years; for example, high-frequency surface and subsurface water-column measurements of the PAP node show an increase in seawater pCO2 (from 339 μatm in 2003 to 353 μatm in 2011) with little variability in the mean air-sea CO2 flux. In the Central Eastern Atlantic, the Oceanic Platform of the Canary Islands open-ocean canary node (aka ESTOC station) has a long-standing time series on water column physical, biogeochemical, and acidification processes that have contributed to the assessment efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). EMSO not only brings together countries and disciplines but also allows the pooling of resources and coordination to assemble harmonized data into a comprehensive regional ocean picture, which will then be made available to researchers and stakeholders worldwide on an open and interoperable access basis.

Late pleistocene ice export events into the Arctic Ocean from the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream, Canadian Arctic Archipelago

Rapidly-flowing sectors of an ice sheet (ice streams) can play ail important role in abrupt climate change through tile delivery of icebergs and meltwater and tile Subsequent disruption of ocean thermohaline circulation (e.g., the North Atlantic's Heinrich events). Recently, several cores have been raised from the Arctic Ocean which document the existence of massive ice export events during tile Late Pleistocene and whose provenance has been linked to Source regions in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In this paper, satellite imagery is used to map glacial geomorphology in the vicinity of Victoria Island, Banks Island and Prince of Wales Island (Canadian Arctic) in order to reconstruct ice flow patterns in the highly complex glacial landscape. A total of 88 discrete flow-sets are mapped and of these, 13 exhibit the characteristic geomorphology of palaeo-ice streams (i.e., parallel patterns of large, highly elongated mega-scale glacial lineations forming a convergent flow pattern with abrupt lateral margins). Previous studies by other workers and cross-cutting relationships indicate that the majority of these ice streams are relatively young and operated during or immediately prior to deglaciation. Our new mapping, however, documents a large (> 700 km long; 110 km wide) and relatively old ice stream imprint centred in M'Clintock Channel and converging into Viscount Melville Sound. A trough mouth fan located on the continental shelf Suggests that it extended along M'Clure Strait and was grounded at tile shelf edge. The location of the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream exactly matches the Source area of 4 (possibly 5) major ice export events recorded in core PS 1230 raised from Fram Strait, the major ice exit for the Arctic Ocean. These ice export events occur at similar to 12.9, similar to 15.6, similar to 22 and 29.8 ka (C-14 yr BP) and we argue that they record vigorous episodes of activity of the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream. The timing of these events is remarkably similar to the North Atlantic's Heinrich events and we take this as evidence that the M'Clure Strait Ice Stream was also activated around the same time. This may hold important implications for tile cause of the North Atlantic's Heinrich events and hints at tile possibility of a pall-ice sheet response. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The climate response to CO2 of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment

Coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models have a tendency to drift away from a realistic climatology. The modelled climate response to an increase of CO2 concentration may be incorrect if the simulation of the current climate has significant errors, so in many models, including ours, the drift is counteracted by applying prescribed fluxes of heat and fresh water at the ocean‐atmosphere interface in addition to the calculated surface exchanges. Since the additional fluxes do not have a physical basis, the use of this technique of “flux adjustment” itself introduces some uncertainty in the simulated response to increased CO2. We find that the global‐average temperature response of our model to CO2 increasing at 1% per year is about 30% less without flux adjustment than with flux adjustment. The geographical patterns of the response are similar, indicating that flux adjustment is not causing any gross distortion. The reduced size of the response is due to more effective vertical transport of heat into the ocean, and a somewhat smaller climate sensitivity. Although the response in both cases lies within the generally accepted range for the climate sensitivity, systematic uncertainties of this size are clearly undesirable, and the best strategy for future development is to improve the climate model in order to reduce the need for flux adjustment.

Improved Arctic sea-ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations

Projections of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) have the potential to inform stakeholders about accessibility to the region, but are currently rather uncertain. The latest suite of CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) produce a wide range of simulated SIT in the historical period (1979–2014) and exhibit various biases when compared with the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) sea ice reanalysis. We present a new method to constrain such GCM simulations of SIT via a statistical bias correction technique. The bias correction successfully constrains the spatial SIT distribution and temporal variability in the CMIP5 projections whilst retaining the climatic fluctuations from individual ensemble members. The bias correction acts to reduce the spread in projections of SIT and reveals the significant contributions of climate internal variability in the first half of the century and of scenario uncertainty from mid-century onwards. The projected date of ice-free conditions in the Arctic under the RCP8.5 high emission scenario occurs in the 2050s, which is a decade earlier than without the bias correction, with potentially significant implications for stakeholders in the Arctic such as the shipping industry. The bias correction methodology developed could be similarly applied to other variables to reduce spread in climate projections more generally.

Application of data assimilation to ocean and climate prediction

Ocean prediction systems are now able to analyse and predict temperature, salinity and velocity structures within the ocean by assimilating measurements of the ocean’s temperature and salinity into physically based ocean models. Data assimilation combines current estimates of state variables, such as temperature and salinity, from a computational model with measurements of the ocean and atmosphere in order to improve forecasts and reduce uncertainty in the forecast accuracy. Data assimilation generally works well with ocean models away from the equator but has been found to induce vigorous and unrealistic overturning circulations near the equator. A pressure correction method was developed at the University of Reading and the Met Office to control these circulations using ideas from control theory and an understanding of equatorial dynamics. The method has been used for the last 10 years in seasonal forecasting and ocean prediction systems at the Met Office and European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF). It has been an important element in recent re-analyses of the ocean heat uptake that mitigates climate change.

North Pacific Carbon Cycle Response to Climate Variability on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales

Climate variability drives significant changes in the physical state of the North Pacific, and there may be important impacts of this variability on the upper ocean carbon balance across the basin. We address this issue by considering the response of seven biogeochemical ocean models to climate variability in the North Pacific. The models' upper ocean pCO(2) and air-sea CO(2) flux respond similarly to climate variability on seasonal to decadal timescales. Modeled seasonal cycles of pCO(2) and its temperature- and non-temperature-driven components at three contrasting oceanographic sites capture the basic features found in observations (Takahashi et al., 2002, 2006; Keeling et al., 2004; Brix et al., 2004). However, particularly in the Western Subarctic Gyre, the models have difficulty representing the temporal structure of the total pCO(2) seasonal cycle because it results from the difference of these two large and opposing components. In all but one model, the air-sea CO(2) flux interannual variability (1 sigma) in the North Pacific is smaller ( ranges across models from 0.03 to 0.11 PgC/yr) than in the Tropical Pacific ( ranges across models from 0.08 to 0.19 PgC/yr), and the time series of the first or second EOF of the air-sea CO(2) flux has a significant correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Though air-sea CO(2) flux anomalies are correlated with the PDO, their magnitudes are small ( up to +/- 0.025 PgC/yr ( 1 sigma)). Flux anomalies are damped because anomalies in the key drivers of pCO(2) ( temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and alkalinity) are all of similar magnitude and have strongly opposing effects that damp total pCO(2) anomalies.

Age model and ostracod countings from IODP Site 306-U1314

We present a detailed study of glacial/interglacial deep sea benthic ostracod assemblage variability at IODP Site U1314 (subpolar North Atlantic) in relation to the history of ice-rafting events and changes in deep ocean circulation over the past 170 ky. Our records of ostracod diversity, abundance and dissolution and sediment properties (IRD and CaCO3) show an excellent correspondence to high amplitude orbital and millennial variability observed in the climate records (d13C and d18O) from neighboring deep water sites, suggesting that the benthic meiofauna fluctuates synchronously with the prevailing oceanographic conditions (surface ocean conditions, deep ocean circulation and water temperature and food flux). Krithe (dominant), Argilloecia and Cytheropteron are the most abundant and diverse genera in association with Rockallia enigmatica. Three ostracod assemblages are recognized. The genera Pennyella, Argilloecia, Pelecocythere, Ambocythere, Pseudobosquetina, Bradleya and Nannocythere are associated with interglacials and interstadials, and possibly reflect increased flux of food to the sediments and more vigorous NADW formation. A transitional assemblage composed of species of Cytheropteron, Xestoleberis and Eucythere is restricted to climatic transitions and indicate moderate environmental conditions and seasonal productivity. A glacial/stadial assemblage is characterized by a temporal predominance of either intermediate-depth and shallow water Arctic/subarctic species (belonging to Cytheropteron, Polycope, Pedicythere, Swainocythere, Cluthia, Heterocyprideis, Elofsonella and Finmarchinella) or abyssal North Atlantic ostracods (Bythocythere, Dutoitella, Bathycythere and Bythocypris). The influx of high latitude taxa can be partially explained by ice-rafting, but may also represent a shift of the location of intermediate and deep water convection to the area south of Iceland. Therefore the combination of species characteristic of different watermasses during glacials may reflect shifts in the influence of high nutrient southern source water (e.g. AABW) vs. low nutrient GNAIW during glacials.

Abrupt climate change: ice sheets and oceans in action

Large temperature variations on land, in the air, and at the ocean surface, and highly variable flux of ice-rafted debris (IRD) delivered to the North Atlantic Ocean show that rapid climate fluctuations took place during the last glacial period. These quasi-periodic, high-amplitude climate variations followed a sequence of events recognized as a rapid warming, followed by a phase of gradual cooling, and terminating with more rapid cooling and increased flux of IRD to the north Atlantic Ocean. Each cycle lasted ˜1500 years, and was followed by an almost identical sequence. These cycles are referred to as Dansgaard/Oechger cycles (D/O cycles), and approximately every fourth cycle culminated in a more pronounced cooling with a massive discharge of IRD into the north Atlantic Ocean over an interval of ˜500 years. These massive discharges of IRD are known as Heinrich layers. “Heinrich events” are thus characterized as a rapid transfer of IRD from a “source,” the bed of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS), to a “sink,” the North Atlantic.

High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

We compare the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as simulated by the coupled climate models of the RAPID project, which cover a wide range of resolution and complexity, and observed by the RAPID/MOCHA array at about 26N. We analyse variability on a range of timescales, from five-daily to interannual. In models of all resolutions there is substantial variability on timescales of a few days; in most AOGCMs the amplitude of the variability is of somewhat larger magnitude than that observed by the RAPID array, while the time-mean is within about 10% of the observational estimate. The amplitude of the simulated annual cycle is similar to observations, but the shape of the annual cycle shows a spread among the models. A dynamical decomposition shows that in the models, as in observations, the AMOC is predominantly geostrophic (driven by pressure and sea-level gradients), with both geostrophic and Ekman contributions to variability, the latter being exaggerated and the former underrepresented in models. Other ageostrophic terms, neglected in the observational estimate, are small but not negligible. The time-mean of the western boundary current near the latitude of the RAPID/MOCHA array has a much wider model spread than the AMOC does, indicating large differences among models in the simulation of the wind-driven gyre circulation, and its variability is unrealistically small in the models. In many RAPID models and in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), interannual variability of the maximum of the AMOC wherever it lies, which is a commonly used model index, is similar to interannual variability in the AMOC at 26N. Annual volume and heat transport timeseries at the same latitude are well-correlated within 15--45N, indicating the climatic importance of the AMOC. In the RAPID and CMIP3 models, we show that the AMOC is correlated over considerable distances in latitude, but not the whole extent of the north Atlantic; consequently interannual variability of the AMOC at 50N, where it is particularly relevant to European climate, is not well-correlated with that of the AMOC at 26N, where it is monitored by the RAPID/MOCHA array.

Climate variability-observations, reconstructions, and model simulations for the Atlantic-European and Alpine region from 1500-2100 AD

A detailed analysis is undertaken of the Atlantic-European climate using data from 500-year-long proxy-based climate reconstructions, a long climate simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing, as well as two global and one regional climate change scenarios. The observed and simulated interannual variability and teleconnectivity are compared and interpreted in order to improve the understanding of natural climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales for the late Holocene. The focus is set on the Atlantic-European and Alpine regions during the winter and summer seasons, using temperature, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height fields. The climate reconstruction shows pronounced interdecadal variations that appear to “lock” the atmospheric circulation in quasi-steady long-term patterns over multi-decadal periods controlling at least part of the temperature and precipitation variability. Different circulation patterns are persistent over several decades for the period 1500 to 1900. The 500-year-long simulation with perpetual 1990 forcing shows some substantial differences, with a more unsteady teleconnectivity behaviour. Two global scenario simulations indicate a transition towards more stable teleconnectivity for the next 100 years. Time series of reconstructed and simulated temperature and precipitation over the Alpine region show comparatively small changes in interannual variability within the time frame considered, with the exception of the summer season, where a substantial increase in interannual variability is simulated by regional climate models.